Manny, Catching the Twins, and a Curious Decision

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So, Manny is really a part of the Sox. Rarely do the long standing rumors actually come true when it has to do with the Sox and big names - generally Kenny likes to work beneath the radar. So far it's been pretty undramatic - Manny was on deck when AJ hit his big bomb on Tuesday and didn't factor much into the Sox 6-4 come-from-behind affair Wednesday.

But I do think this will be a nice step up. I'm not looking for the .400 hitting Manny that lit up the baseball world two years ago when he pulled this same "quit on his team to force his way out" maneuver. I think he's off the juice now and two years older (a significant two years given his age - 38). But compared to the middling play of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay out of the DH slot, if Manny can hit .280 with 20+ HR power and a good OBA (all still very reasonable for him), the Sox will be in good shape.

We lost nine (yes, 9) different 1-run games in August. Some of that was the pen, for sure. But just as much of it was the offense coming up one run short. You throw a guy like Manny into your lineup and maybe we take 3 of those - i.e. pretty much the whole difference in the standings right now (especially if we had taken either of our 1-run losses to the Twins).

I think that's the kind of effect Manny can have 2-3 games down the stretch. Not just because of his production, but because of the presence Manny is. Total speculation, but you've got to think the presence of one of baseball's greatest ever hitters (even if it was based on the juice) standing in the on-deck circle could have played into the mistake the Indians reliever made to AJ. Even if it didn't, those kind of things do happen and while they don't show up in any box score, they can help you win.

Pitchers will work extra hard when facing Manny. They'll work harder to the guys ahead of him in the order so he doesn't come up with runners on. That leads to pitchers showing more of their stuff, tiring themselves out more, and screwing up their focus and rhythm, which is where mistakes start popping up.

And the beauty of the Sox lineup is that they will absolutely make you pay for your mistakes, top to bottom. Pierre and Vizquel won't deposit one in the seats, but they'll definitely smack it for a single or double. And you do not want either of those guys on ahead of a middle of the order that features Rios, Paulie, Manny, and Quentin. Throw in a back of the order with the hot hitting Alexei and Beckham, or the crafty veteran batwork of AJ, and there's just no respite for a pitcher.

Even before Manny, that's what has been happening. These Sox have been scoring runs. Sure they have their games where the bats go cold. But they've even stole a few of those, as they did Wednesday - they looked dead in the water, already with a foot on the plane out of Cleveland before they exploded late for five runs.

The exciting part about a team that can score runs from anywhere in the lineup is that you're always in it. The Sox have shown that lately, coming back in a lot of games. I've haven't seem them with this type of resiliency since the first half of 2006, when their offensive was an absolute juggernaut that could reduce late inning deficits in the blink of an eye. Some of these comebacks have fallen just short (hence some of those 1-run losses). But in a good amount they've stolen us a W.

And the way the Twins are playing now, you need all the Ws we can get. It was frustrating coming out of the sweep of the Indians with only have a half game to show for it. Sadly, the reality is that the Sox can't hope for too much help from the Twins' opponents - Detroit is about as good as they'll see the rest of the way. Aside a three game set this weekend with the Rangers and the three with the Sox in the Cell, it's a steady dose of Indians and Royals for the Twinkies down the stretch (with some underwhelming As thrown in).

But here's the thing - the Twins continue to sneak by in their games, no matter who they're playing. All those one-run games we've been losing have been one-run games they're winning. Yes, that's definitely the sign of a good team. But it's also luck. And it's hard to be just good enough for 6 straight months. The Twins are gonna run into a few games where the pen doesn't hold up, where they make an error, don't get the late hit, etc.

It happened last night, as the Tigers took an extra innings contest from the Twins in Minnesota. This victory moved the Sox to only three back in the loss column - and that loss column is all that matters when you're chasing. Those are the games you can't make up yourself, the games you need your opponent to give back themselves.

But before we get too pessimistic about the Twins giving those games back with such a soft schedule, remember that late in the year, sub .500 teams with nothing to play for can often be the toughest opponents. Youngsters are looking to prove themselves, journeyman are taking advantage of their one shot to earn another paycheck. The pressure is gone - it's just about playing baseball again. And every win means so much to these teams, while a loss is nothing to bounce back from.

So while 3 games looks like a ton with the way the Twins are playing, it's very doable. First off, the Sox have one game in the bag - the 3-game series where they host the Twins. Basically, if they don't win 2 of 3, the season is done anyway. So we have to assume they take 2 of 3 at the Cell in two weeks, making this a 2-game lead.

Can those two games be made up? Well, the Sox can do it one fell swoop with a sweep of the Twins. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not so much. But don't rule it out. How many series have we needed a sweep of the Twins late in the year? How many times have we done it? The answers to those questions are "a lot" and "never." So why not now? The Twins have gotten plenty of sweeps from us in those situations. Why can't it go the other way?

The games are at the Cell, we've got amazing starting pitching and a lineup that doesn't quit. Throw in a guy like Manny, capable of winning a game by himself and certainly not someone who cares about the long list of failures we've had against Minnesota, and why can't this be the year? You would have never guessed in a win-or-go-home game in 2008 that the Sox would get the great defensive play, clutch hit, and lock down pen work to win a 1-0, would you?

But let's just say we do win only two of three. Does two games really seem so difficult to make up elsewhere? This Sox team has shown it's plenty capable of getting hot. With Ed Jackson in the rotation, we can hope to go out and win every game on the schedule. We've got a lineup that produces top to bottom, not just with home runs but with clutch hitting (did you know we lead the AL with a .285 average with RISP?), speed, and the most small ball I've ever seen a White Sox team play.

In fact, with Manny in the lineup this is pretty near the type of offensive I've always wanted. No holes top to bottom, so we aren't waiting around for the heart of the order to carry us. Speed and athleticism out of more spots than not. Aside Paulie and AJ, this lineup doesn't have a slow guy. Sure Manny's no speedster, but he's also no big clogger. And even AJ makes up for a lot of his lack of speed with great base-running skill. I actually agree with Hawk when he says he's one of the best base-runners on the team. Watch the little stuff AJ does - at least once every week he picks up a base that no one else would have.

The beauty of a lineup that hits top to bottom while also using speed and small ball is that we won't go those long stretches without scoring runs. There are just too many weapons, too many ways we can score for the lineup to struggle for too long before doing so. And when you throw in a load of explosive power - which Manny will only add to - you also now have an offense that can steal some games (as has been necessary of late, given a few bad starts and the woeful pen).

So if we get hot, if we play in September like we did from June 9th to the All Star Break, this division will be ours. Because the Twins will lose some games along the way. They've had their hot run, and while it can continue for a bit, they're already showing signs of slowing down. Not just the close games, but losing three out of four in Texas and seeing a lot of games with iffy pitching or hitting. They can't scrape by forever, as last night's extra inning loss showed.


The one thing standing in our way? The pen. Jenks had a beauty performance getting Santos off the hook last week, inducing the double play and final out to secure what should have been an easy W. But then a few days later he gave up a 3-run lead and had to be bailed out in extras (additional innings we couldn't afford to tax our pen with).

What can we expect out of Jenks the rest of the way? Probably more of the same - good games and bad games. The hope is that, like with that 3-run meltdown, we can work over his bad games. But who knows - the guy was brutal until mid-June, then was untouchable for two straight months. He certainly wouldn't be the first reliever to lose it, find it, lose it again... only to find it once more. Hell, few relievers do NOT follow that cycle.

While such inconsistency isn't very encouraging, the alternatives aren't any prettier. Santos has been struggling a lot of late - makes sense for a guy in only his second professional year as a pitcher. Pena is very solid as a long reliever (if we do win the division, his 7-inning spot start will be one of the highlights for me), but clearly nothing more.

Linebrink has lost every bit of faith of the coaching staff - how else can you explain his lack of late inning work while the whole rest of the pen crumbles around him? It is kind of interesting given that he's been respectable (relative to the rest of the pen) of late. While he was basically unused during the Sox earlier hot stretch, he's thrown pretty solidly since they have been forced to use him more. Not great, but an ERA in the mid 3s, a K/IP, and only one base-runner per inning. For this pen, that's Cy worthy. Curious in all the desperation that Ozzie hasn't gone to him in the hopes of lightning in a bottle. The guy has the track record - why not see if Linebrink can't be an unlikely hero?

Of course, the fact that I'm even considering such a washed-up arm like Linebrinks shows how few our options are. One fact that has been encouraging, as we saw Wednesday, is that rookie Chris Sale seems up to the task of getting big outs. The kid is big, lefty, and gets it up there quick. But he's also been throwing strikes and Wednesday Sales showed he's not afraid of tough situations. Yes he put himself in it, but he also bounced back by getting the strikes he needed, whether it was inducing a grounder or getting a K. As we saw with Jenks in 05, a rookie arm with some explosiveness can be a life saver when all else fails.

The final option - hope. Hope that Thornton is healthy soon. He's near coming off the DL now - if the big lefty can come back as effective as ever now that he's been able to rest up, that'd be a HUGE boon. And there's hope that Putz can come off the DL a week later, also finding his old form now that he's been allowed to heal up. It's been scary without those two, but you just gotta believe, if you're the optimistic sort, that after a long season of a lot of stressful innings, having two weeks off was exactly what both needed to find one last run in them down the stretch.


This whole discussion leads me to a curious decision by the White Sox to allow the Twins to get Brian Fuentes from the Angels. I think they were so focused on Manny that they got caught with their pants down on Fuentes. This guy has been an elite closer for winning teams, but also has stepped back into a set-up role when that's what the team needed. He's lefty and has been unhittable this year by fellow southpaws, even as he's struggled otherwise. And while his time with the Angels has been very up-and-down, in July and August Fuentes has been the All-Star reliever everyone thought he was.

So this guy clearly is an asset. And he wasn't that expensive - just under $2M for the rest of the way. Now sure it's easy to spend someone else's money, especially when they've just spent a good chunk on Manny. But when you look at how much our pen has struggled, when you see how thin it is, when you realize how important relief pitching is to both getting to the post-season and making a run there, how do you let a guy like this pass? How does $2M stand in the way?

ESPECIALLY when it's possible that your freakin division rivals won't let it stop them? When you've got first shot at the guy, when by simply claiming him you eliminate all chance that he ends up playing a key role in keeping you out of the playoffs. Don't the Sox have to put in the claim strictly as a defensive move? Don't they take the risk that the Angels won't let him go for free? Especially when the downside - the Angels let you have him - is only a $2M cost for a great lefty late-inning option that you desperately need?

I've loved the work Kenny has done and am not only happy about the team we've had under him for nearly a decade now, but am pumped about what we have moving forward. However, this was a major mistake. Kenny totally misjudged the scenario in front of him when he passed on Fuentes and it might be the difference in this division - either our lack of his arm or Minnesota having it.

But, I'm not gonna kill him over it just yet. Let's see how things shake out. Maybe Fuentes melts down for them as he's done for both the Halos and Rockies. Because one thing about Fuentes - when he's off, he'll be off for days at a time and in brutal fashion. He could cost them three games in four days, easy - I've seen him do it.

And maybe the Twins win going away or the Sox win anyway. Now even if we get to the playoffs, I'll still fault Kenny for not having Fuentes for the post-season, but in baseball, for a team like the Sox, it's hard to ever be too upset about a year when you make the playoffs.

So I'm not gonna lose sleep over what's come and gone. Instead, I'm gonna be curious to see what impact Manny makes. I'm gonna be curious to see how the Ozzie handles the pen down the stretch(honestly, at this point I give him a ton of credit for juggling the hot mess his relievers have handed him). And I'm gonna be curious to see when the Twins finally start falling apart, as they did last night. Because it will happen - the hope is just that it happens in time for us to catch them (instead of in the playoffs, as it normally does) and that we've played well enough to do so.

Big series this weekend for both teams - we face the dead-in-the-water but still very strong BoSox, at Fenway. The Twins play host to the Rangers, a team they just lost three of four from, but now get back in their hometown. Having picked up a game this week, I'm perfectly content to tread water. Head to Detroit for that four game set next week still three back in the loss column and I'm a happy man.

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