Spring Break - Part IV

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If ya missed it earlier this week, check out Part I here, Part II here, and Part III here.

One of the biggest moves the Sox made this off-season is one I didn't realize was even on the horizon and doesn't have an on-field effect on their 2011 club at all - the signing of Alexei to an extension that keeps him under Sox control through 2016 at a very reasonable price.

This kid last year went from "potential" to proven. Offensively and defensively. Sure, he still is the last guy you count on to produce at the plate in April, but at the end of the day, I'll take the steady and impressive end-of-year offensive numbers the Cuban Missile has consistently put up out of a middle infield position.

But more importantly, Alexei stepped up in a huge way defensively to become not just a plus fielding shortstop, but arguably the best one in baseball. In fact, at various times last year his advanced defensive metrics had him as the best overall defensive player in baseball (not just at SS).

Now this didn't get Alexei much more than a cursory nod by most people for the Gold Glove, but that's because the morons who vote on it went with Jeter, one of the more iffy fielders in the game. And the commentators all focused on Texas' youngster Andrus as the better alternative because of that team's run to the World Series.

Alexei's time could very well come. The Gold Gloves are extremely name-brand impressed and just as much about offense as anything. But given the way advanced defensive stats are coming into vogue, given the flashy way he plays Short, and given that he can be as fearsome with the bat as any SS in the AL, we could just see the Cuban Missile as a Gold Glove winner.

So to have this guy tied down for a good price (just over $8M per) for the foreseeable future is huge. Especially because he's still raw. Alexei has even greater upside than he's shown - 25+ HRs and .300 average is not at all beyond him. He certainly can be a far better base-runner - The Missile is definitely one of the fastest guys on the team, clearly he just can't figure out how to read pitchers. But you can't teach speed and while you can't teach SB instincts, you can train a guy up a lot better than he is now. Combine all that with the type of D Alexei was playing last year and what a franchise piece this kid is becoming.

And he may not be alone in his Gold Glove pursuits in the middle of the Sox infield. With offense illogically being such a major factor, Beckham will definitely enter the 2B discussions if he can reach the kind of potential he's shown.

Now sure, that sophomore slump was disappointing after what he did for long stretches as a rook. But look beyond the year-end numbers and check out these splits - .310 average after the All-Star Break, to go along with a .380 OBA and .497 Slugging Percentage. Those are WOW type numbers for a middle infielder. So if Beckham can do that for a whole year, he's going to get noticed. As in All Star and Gold Glove type notice.

Especially because Beckham has quietly and quickly turned himself into a heck of a fielding 2B. I couldn't tell you if his stats add up defensively, but just from watching him I've seen him do a lot of very impressive things. Remember too - this was his first year at the position. This season, maybe next, Beckham may break into the realm of the best fielding 2Bs... or at least near enough that his outstanding bat will make up for the difference when it comes Gold Glove time.

And how sweet of a thought that is. In baseball, much like the other major sports, success comes up the middle. Catching, pitching, center field, and of course your SS and 2B. If they can build on what they were doing in the 2nd half last year, the Sox middle infield could be as strong as any - offensively and defensively - in baseball. And it's all with guys who won't be leaving the Southside before 2015.

And know who else will be around until 2015, bringing both a plus glove and a healthy bat to the middle of our defense? Rios. While Dunn and Paulie will get the attention as the big boppers, the key to the Sox lineup and defense lies with this trio - Rios, Beckham, and Alexei. Their D allows all the money the Sox have invested in starting and relief pitching to do its job. And their athleticism allows the Sox to have a much more balanced, dynamic offensive attack.

The Sox, like most teams, will have speed in their leadoff spot. But one key factor to making a team a consistent offensive producer day-in and day-out is having speed in the 2, 5, 6, and 7 spots. That's where Beckham, Rios, and Alexei come in - they've got the bats to hit for a plus average and show dangerous enough power, so you're not giving up pure production in those lineup holes. But they also bring enough speed that Ozzie can steal them, can hit-and-run with them on base, or bunt them into scoring position. They also can take 2-3 bases on a hit, meaning you've got to string together far fewer good at-bats to get some runs across the plate.

I've said it a whole bunch around here, but after watching a ton of beer league softball type station-to-station slugging teams on the Southside and then watching more dynamic offenses such as in 2005, 2008, last year, and of course, whenever teams like the Twins, Rays, and Angels come into town, I've learned something about baseball success that I haven't seen talked about too often.

That's the importance of a consistent offense. Sure, the big boppers will score runs in bunches and make your overall stats look nice. But for every 12-4 win, you're gonna have a number of 2-1 losses because home runs, even from the best guys, just don't come with enough frequency. And if you've got those big sluggers, most coaches quit coaching and try to justify such by saying they didn't want to take the bat out of their big boys hands.

Well, that's idiotic. Even the best sluggers make far more outs than hits, and hit more singles than homers. So you shouldn't be basing your whole strategy on the least likely to occur event. Instead, you need to build your team with guys who can hit for average and get on base from the top to the bottom of the lineup. That allows you to get production in every inning and avoid a dry spell just because a key guy or two are slumping.

You also need speed and fundamentals, so that when the hits aren't coming (bad weather, tough pitcher, team slump, injuries, just one of those days...) you can still muscle across a few runs. Steals, bunts, hit-and-runs, taking advantage of errors, going first to third, sac flies, hitting behind runners... you do those kind of things and suddenly you can get a run or two without much in the way of hits.

That consistency not only allows you to squeak out a handful of wins when you don't have much for O, but I also think it keeps your players and team from getting into big, sustained slumps. If you're not hitting but draw a walk, steal a base, and score a key run, suddenly you're not as down on things, suddenly you're not battling so many demons. Same with if you can come up with a key bunt, a sac fly, or a cheap hit that only got through because the 3B was playing up for a bunt or the 2B was moving to cover 2nd.

It goes even more for the team - while losing always sucks, it's a lot easier to keep a winning vibe and some momentum if you lose a hard fought 4-3 game where you grinded out a couple of runs on a day it was clear you had nothing going. But if the team meekly goes up and down w/o ever really getting into the game, it takes something out of you. Do that a few times in a row and now it really starts to effect a team.

So, bringing it back to our strength up the middle, Rios, Beckham, and Alexei will be every bit as crucial to our success this year as Dunn and Paulie. They'll be the ones, along with Pierre and AJ, responsible for keeping our offense going when the fireworks get the day off. Their speed/average/pop combo will allow this lineup to play whatever game is needed that day.

Death by a thousand singles and doubles - we can do that. Tough out a 3-2 victory with great D, some manufactured runs, and some clutch hits - we can do that. Slug our way to a 12-9 victory - yep, we can handle that, too. And having the ability to do all those very different things is how you win enough of the 162 regular season and another 15 or so post-season games to bring home another title.


Please check in tomorrow for V.


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Spring Break - Part III

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If ya missed it earlier this week, check out Part I here and Part II here.

I referenced on Monday my contentment with Kenny not moving an SP or Quentin. Kind of interesting seeing as I had called for CQ's departure at the beginning of the off-season. Keeping our full stack of starting pitchers was a no-brainer (and I think the Sox felt that way too), but Quentin was not. He's not cheap ($5M this year), he's injury-prone (which means you can't even count on him for a conservative level of production), and with each passing middling season, his trade value takes a significant hit.

But you know what - I think the way it shook out, Kenny was right to hang on to Carlos (and not just because he and his Playmobile hair are my wife's favorite player on the Sox). With Paulie and Dunn around, CQ no longer is being counted on to be the primary offensive force on this team. And even if either of those guys stumbles, Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all provide the potential to be real difference makers in the lineup. Throw in a pair of always useful vets in AJ and Pierre, and suddenly the Sox are in a place to very much win w/o a great deal of production from Quentin.

Now that initially had me thinking that this made him expendable, but that was based on the fact that I didn't think the Sox had the payroll room left to add pieces like Crain and Ohman to give them the pen they needed. And I'd much rather be a bit light in the OF than the bullpen. However, given that we found the money necessary for everything, now I'm thinking it was a good move keeping CQ's potential around.

There's not a great deal of pressure on him, which should be a nice help to the notoriously introverted and intense Carlos. But there still exists a world of potential - in 2008 he was flat out the best offensive player in the American League when he got hurt on Sept 1st.

And to win a championship, you need that kind of potential. No team has hoisted the trophy w/o having a few guys come out and absolutely overproduce for what they were expected of. In 2005 Contreras, Cotts, and Politte jump to mind, as does Everett's first half or even Uribe's defense at short.

While none of these guys ever matched that high level of production again (tho Contreras was pretty nasty in the first half of 2006), for that brief period in 2005 they lived up to every bit of potential they had. And there's no way we're champs without that happening.

So for 2011 to be just as magical, you need a few guys to come through with career years. It's even more impactful when that career year comes out of a guy like CQ, who's ceiling is MVP-caliber, as we saw in 2008. I mean if AJ or Morel have a career year, it'd be awesome. But their .300-20-80 line isn't gonna carry us the way CQ's 30 and 100 in 5 months of play did.

And don't think that because he's scuffled a bit in 2009 and 2010 that Carlos isn't capable of being that beast again. The kid still has it in him to hit 35 jacks and drive in 115 RBI. Sheesh, last year with all the nagging injuries and slumps and whatnot, he still hit 26 jacks and drove in 87 in only 131 games. Give this guy 155 games just at the same level he was last year and we're talking 31 and 103.

So is it really a leap to say a fully healthy, dialed-in Quentin could come through with 35 and 115? Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that's what we should count on - not at all. See, that's the beauty of the Dunn signing - with it, we don't have to sit here and say we need those kind of numbers out of CQ to have a shot, like we did going into last season.

Instead, what I'm saying is that between Paulie, Dunn, CQ, Rios, and even Alexei and Beckham, I'm guessing we're gonna get at least 2 guys producing at legit middle of the order levels, with another guy doing well enough to at least protect them. And that'd be as good or better than what we had in 2005 and 2008, when it was really only one big bat and one solid guy providing protection.


So yeah, my dad intrigued me when he started talking about dealing a guy like Ed Jackson and Quentin to the Yanks for Gardner (who I absolutely love - a blazing speedster with good OBA and average potential who doesn't seem to be very highly valued just yet) and some of their top shelf prospects. He figured we could grab a guy like Freddy to hold down the #4 spot until Peavy got back, then slip into the #5 and leave us in the same place we were last year when we had our month-plus hot streak.

At the time what gave me pause was giving up a frontline SP with Peavy being such a question mark. Also, the fact is that rarely do Yankees prospects live up to the hype (including their current catching uber-prospect, who seems to be too big to be an everyday catcher, even if everyone is convinced he can rake).

But now? As much as I'd love to have Gardner on the Southside for the next 10 years sparking our club like no other leadoff hitter we've ever had (all due respect to Pods and Pierre, but they never had the total AVG, OBA, and speed combo that Gardner does), I'm happy that Kenny stayed pat on CQ. His high end potential slotted into a reasonable price and 6th spot in the order, as well as in a role (right-handed hitting right fielder) that can easily be filled with a mid-season trade, means we're in the ideal low-risk, high reward situation.


Please check out Part IV here and soon, Part V.

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Spring Break - Part II

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If ya missed it, check out Part I here yesterday.

Someone made the point that Reinsdorf is betting on the fans with his decision to open the coffers and allow a $120M payroll this season. A huge part of the Sox bottom line comes in the walk-up for home games, a notoriously fickle group of fans who will stay away in droves when the Sox don't make it worth their while. So if they don't come, the ownership group is going to take a hit in 2011.

That's one of the reasons this increased payroll pumps me up on a ton of levels. Obviously the biggest is that, as I mentioned yesterday, this payroll bump allowed the Sox to retain or acquire pretty much all the pieces they need to enter the season looking as good as any Southside squad I can remember.

But equally important to me is that it shows that Reinsdorf hasn't forgotten the hard-learned lesson of the mid-90s to the mid-2000s. Following the strike, Jerry and his ownership group worked retroactively, only spending the money that was justified by to-date revenues. The result was a mid-market payroll playing in the 3rd largest market in America. And as you all know, Chicago is a diehard sports and diehard baseball town. And the Cubs, as much as they were a nice draw, sucked hard for most of that time.

So it was a bit of a travesty that the White Sox didn't have much of a payroll, especially as free agency became a bigger and bigger deal. What was even more frustrating is that the Sox weren't horrible - they were just mediocre enough to make you think that had they had some extra money - and spent it wisely... I'm looking at you Jamie Navarro and Albert Belle - they could have done more than win one ultimately disappointing division title between 1995 and 2005.

Then in the off-season before 2005 a light went on - Jerry allowed Kenny to push the limits of the payroll beyond what was safe, into the territory that w/o winning, ownership receipts would definitely take a hit. But Kenny wasn't going all Jim Hendry on us, using that extra money to make a media-driven splash that ultimately would play havoc with his on-field team.

Instead, Kenny took those extra millions and found all the small pieces that one needs to win a title. AJ, El Duque, Hermanson, Iguchi - pieces that without the Sox would still be in the same realm of pathetic as the Cubs. That's yet another major reason I'm pumped about this off-season's payroll bump - cause Kenny once again used it for those extra pieces that any championship team needs.

Sure he spent on Dunn and Paulie, but those were no media-splash signings, those were backbone producers with as long a history of production as anyone in baseball who fit exactly into a need we have. The rest went to the AJs, Crains, Castros, and Ohmans of the world. Guys you've got to have to survive the 162-game grind and the equally challenging month-long playoffs.

So it's got me pumped to see that Jerry realized one of the simplest rules of business and investing - you've got to spend money to make money. Before Reinsdorf's strategy was to only spend what he knew he could make, then hope for a breakthrough team that would increase attendance and whatnot, and only THEN, with full coffers, up the payroll.

Now Reinsdorf gets that instead he has to have faith in both his General Manager (and Manager) and the fans. Give Kenny the money to get the players for Ozzie, and they'll produce the kind of team that your millions of diehard Sox fans will happily cough up to see. Since 2005, the Sox have sported a very healthy payroll each year and the fans have responded in kind.

It hasn't always been a full house, but it's night and freakin day from the pre-title days, and it's not just because this team won a championship 5 seasons ago. It's because even in the down years, the Sox have spent the money (and spent it wisely) to the point that Sox fans feel good about going out to the park.

Sox pre-season optimism since 2005 hasn't been a product of naivety and ignorance, as our Northside brethren have perfected. Instead it's been because every year the Sox have had a seemingly solid core surrounded by good role players that if things broke their way, could replicate the magic of 2005. In 2006 and 2010, for large parts of the year they did so (both teams were in 1st at the All-Star Break). In 2008, Game 163 was enough to prove us optimists right. And even in 2007 and 2009, the Sox did enough that all hope wasn't lost... even when those seasons flat-lined the future still remained promising.


Does this mean I support everything that Sox management has done since the title? Of course not - I wrote a bunch last year questioning whether the Kenny/Ozzie combo really had done all that much outside of bringing us 2005 (for which we'll be forever grateful). But the ultimate judgment of their administration is still on-going. With the work they did this off-season to build off the ray of hope we got from that June-July run last year, I'm saying the weight of evidence is leaning back their way. I'm once again in an appreciative mood of Kenny/Ozzie and ultimately, Reinsdorf and his ownership group.

So, to show I'm not just talk I've anted up - I bought seven sets of four seats each to various Half-Priced Mondays throughout the year. I'd suggest you do the same - there are 9 on the schedule, covering every month, and they feature some solid match-ups. And tickets aren't cheap these days - so the half price thing really makes a difference - coming in at only $25 for a bleacher seat (good luck finding a solid seat to any other team in this town for that price).

But not only am I more than happy to do so because I love the games and because I'm uber-pumped about the 2011 Sox, but also because I like supporting an ownership group and management team that has shown a willingness to invest in itself and the fans. So check the Sox schedule and carve out a few nights to come on down and throw in your share... and plan on watching a hell of a Sox club while doing so.

Please go here for Part III and here for Part IV, and check in Friday for Part V.

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Spring Break - Part I

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The Sox enter Spring Training with four live, healthy, capable of anything starting pitching arms in the form of Buehrle, Ed Jackson, Floyd, and Danks. Buehrle already has a Perfect Game and No-Hitter on his resume, and Ed Jackson has a no-no of his own. Floyd has tantalized a few times with near no-hitters and won't shock anyone if he finally does it. And it's possible that Danks is the best pitcher of them all.

So when those four guys came out and fired four straight two inning, no run/no hit innings to start Spring Training, my excitement level for 2011 went from 10 to 11.

Alright, it probably more accurately went from a 8 to a 9. For a 10 I'd need to see Morel hitting everything in sight and the young bullpen arms - Sales and Santos - looking untouchable. And to hit Spinal Tap's vaunted 11? That would take a string of Jake Peavy starts that show he's as strong and effective as ever.

Oh wait... lookie at what Jakie did his first time out - he got himself his own 2 innings of scoreless, hitless work to kick of his Cactus League campaign. Where's that leave us - 30 straight outs with not a single hit or run against our starting rotation to start the pre-season.


Still, not quite an 11 yet, but hell's yeah I'm pumped to see those five guys dealing as they have. I wrote about this a lot last year - when we were on our hot streak in 2010, the starting pitchers were driving the train. Every game it looked as if the day's starter was out to one-up the guy from the night before. Memories of 2005 danced in my head as this team went on an unholy tear from June 9th to the All-Star Break.

Of course, after the All-Star Break the Sox were very middling, quickly fell out of the race with the Twinkies, and I was faced with yet another disappointing season on the South Side (probably my 28th in 30 years... I'll grant that the Game 163 win was enough to label 2008 satisfactory).

But with the calendar flipped to 2011, somehow Kenny retained all the key vets we were supposed to lose and also somehow found the coin to upgrade all over the place. Dunn was the big splash, but don't sleep on Crain, Ohman, or even Lastings Milledge. Similarly, getting AJ and Paulie back was tremendous, but re-signing Castro, Pena, and Vizquel should also prove crucial at various points this season. And one last tip of the hat - not parting with Ed Jackson (or any SP) or Quentin, despite the many talks that one or both needed to go.

Personally I think it's almost always a dumb move for any team that has a legit chance to contend for the playoffs to ever get rid of proven effective starting or relief pitching. I've just never seen a team have too much of those. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and all sorts of other random things sprout up to make every single arm you have necessary to success. Only rarely will you find a team that truly has too many arms to the point that they're better served dealing some.

The Sox aren't there - instead the fact that we're 4.5 frontline capable guys deep (which hopefully will round up to a 5 as Peavy proves healthy and sharp) in the rotation is huge to me. And the fact that these guys are already out there dealing means even more. Sure it's the first outing of Spring Training, sure both Floyd and Buehrle followed up with 3 ER outings. But it still was impressive to see all five of these starters to come flying out of the gate. Especially after what we dealt with last year, seeing are big guns chomping at the bit to prove their worth is very encouraging. It speaks to a preparation, a drive, and a camaraderie that is exactly what we rode to the 2005 title.


Now while Peavy is most certainly the biggest question mark, he's also got the most room to help this club. Imagine if the other four guys are dealing during the year, pacing us to a Central Division lead and a favored status in the AL when the doldrums of the season hit in July and August. Who should just be rounding into prime form then... none other than your 2007 Cy Young winner, an ultra-competitive sort who seems uniquely qualified to be that stretch run and post-season Ace you wanna have.

Now I'd argue that Contreras was no better than Buehrle, Big Game Fred, or Garland in the 2005 Postseason, but there is zero question that we'd never have gotten there if Jose hadn't been lights out in the second half. He was that much-needed stopper to slow the August/September free-fall. And I think mentally it helped the rotation to know that Jose would take the ball in Game 1 each series, with everyone else able to fall into whatever place after that.

So I'm not counting on Peavy early on. Instead, I just need him to get healthy in May or even June (no hurry in April, where a 5th starter is barely needed). And then I need him to work out the kinks - mentally and physically - so he's ready to deal in the second half straight on through October. He needs to slot into that unquestioned Ace role, so that the other four guys can fill in #2-5, where they probably fit best.


So yeah, I'm a pretty big Kenny fan for how he's assembled and kept together this rotation. I'm also pumped with how he's stewarded our bullpen. Keeping Sale in a spot where he's proven he can be highly effective and where the odds are far greater than he can remain so for the full season is great call. And while you hate to mess with what works, the steady consistency Thornton has shown after years and years of working the most stressful late-inning situations (how many times when there was trouble a-brewin in the 7th and 8th, did you see Ozzie motion for the lefty and big Matt came hustling out of the pen?) leads me to believe he'll be a money closer.

Throw in that Crain's proven a steady 7th/8th inning righty, that Santos has the upside to be as good as any of these guys, and that Ohman is an accomplished professional situational lefty and I love what our relief corps look like. Wait - can't forget about Tony Pena, who has, pre-Sox days, been a viable late-inning option and also proved last year that he could be as good as anyone in baseball in mop up work and even spot start duty.

So while I've said it a million times, let me do so again - there are few things are crucial to a ballclub as having lights out relief pitching. You show me a team that has 4-5 consistent options out of the pen and I'll show you a team that is contending, regardless of what else they've got. And tho you never know what the hell you're gonna get out of a pen, I think Kenny has built as good of one as we could have expected.


Yeah, it's easy to cherry pick what you want to see in Spring Training and make more of it than it is. But I consider myself a fairly critical off-season fan - I love predicting and following all the moves and strategies, and as you've seen around here, I've got plenty of my own opinions on it all. But this off-season I gotta give Kenny the credit that he's built a club that deserves our optimism.

Top to bottom, core guys to role players, we've got it all... on paper. Now we just need to see if they can get it done on the field. So far, there are some signs that not only is the talent there - as we figured - but that they've also got the right attitude. I won't put too much stock into Spring numbers much going forward, but if the numbers seem to add up to something more - such as all five starters firing off beauty outings in succession their first time out - then I'm gonna let it up my excitement level. Maybe even to 11.

Please go here for Part II, here for Part III, and here for Part IV, and check in Friday for Part V.

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