I. Told. You. So!

-

My last post, mocked by my buddy and esteemed Sox Pre- and Post-Game Radio Host Chris Rongey, among others, deigned to suggest that Dunn and Rios, two of the worst players in all of baseball through the first half of the year, needed to be sat down for a good long time, with the at-bats going to other players, such as Lillibridge and Viciedo.

Well, the always stubborn and arrogant duo of Ozzie and Kenny didn't listen, of course, but injuries eventually forced their hand. Konerko, Quentin, and AJ all missed time (Konerko largely in the form of not being able to play the field). Thus De Aza (a guy I will admit I'd never heard of, even as he was tearing up AAA Charlotte all year), Lillibridge, and Flowers all were given significant at-bats. And, finally, in the last two days, so too was Viciedo.

The resulting August numbers (through 8/30) for these guys:

Lillibridge - .261 AVG, 314 OBA, .587 SLG, 5 HR, 9 R, and 12 RBI in 50 PAs
De Aza - .343 AVG, .389 OBA, .552 SLG, 2 HR, 12 R, 12 RBI, and 5 SB in 72 PAs
Flowers - .278 AVG, .375 OBA, .500 SLG, 2 HR, 6 R, and 9 RBI in 62 PAs
Viciedo - 5-9, 1 HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, a BB and a SB in 10 PAs

All told, that's almost 200 PAs of .300+ AVG, .360+ OBA, .550+ SLG, 10 HRs, 31 R, 37 RBI, and 6 SB!! And only 10 of those PAs are Viciedo's, by far the most highly touted hitter in the group.

Or, to put it another way - back in June, I gave up on Dunn and Rios and thought it was time for a good, long benching (not a few days, more like a few weeks). If you were to have used Lillibridge and De Aza in CF (they're a righty-lefty combo, by the way) and Viciedo and Flowers at DH, and they produced just as they have in August, we'd have had added two more Konerkos to our lineup in place of the absolutely offense-killing Dunn and Rios for about 25 games!

That's 25 June games w/ two different line-up spots going from the worst players in baseball to two of the best. Throw that offensive explosion together with the great pitching and defense we were getting at the point (more on that later), and we'd have strung together another nasty hot streak just as we did last season.

And unlike last year, we wouldn't be looking at a post All-Star Break swoon as our pitching melted down. They've remained as strong as ever - even w/ Dunn and Rios still getting regular ABs and playing like poop, even w/ Paulie, AJ, and Quentin missing time, we've still managed to play about .500 ball for a while now.


So that's my I TOLD YOU SO - if the stubborn, arrogant, wrong-headed brain trust of Kenny and Ozzie had made the moves that required just an ounce of sense and a decent amount of balls way back in June (when it became well-founded to do so), we'd be looking at a wholly different White Sox season.

That's largely because, while no one has been paying attention (even some of you, my diehard Sox fan friends) the Sox Pitching and Defense has been the BEST in the AL since May 6th.

As far back as May 4th, I posted here on this blog that things weren't as bad as the 11-19 start suggested. That the performances of so many key pieces (particularly the pitching, starting and relief) suggested things would bounce back, maybe even very soon.

And I was right... for the most part. May 6th was rock bottom - a loss dropped us to 11-22, or on pace for 108 losses. At 158, our runs against total was dead last in the AL.

Now, exactly 100 games later, guess which ballclub ranks #1 in the AL in runs allowed per game since May 6th? Your Chicago White Sox. 381 runs allowed in 100 games, for an average of 3.8 per game. Our record stands at 14 games over .500 in that stretch (56-43, or 92-win pace).

For some perspective on our pitching/defense - Boston and the Yanks, the prohibitive AL favorites? 4.0 runs per game allowed. Angels, with their three aces? 4.0. Seattle in their big park and with their great D? 4.1. Tampa Bay, quietly playing great ball themselves? 3.9.

And our division foes? Since that fateful 6th day of May, Detroit is up at 4.4, Cleveland at 4.6.

You take the AL's best pitching/defense combo and put it with Pierre/AJ (who've been red hot since then), Paulie (who's remained hot all year), and Quentin/Alexei (both have underwhelmed, but still produced at a big league level), and you can see the 92-win team.

So why do we sit where we are - dreadfully inconsistent, just a few games over .500 (despite this nice win streak), and chasing a weeks worth of games to a very mediocre division leader? Some of it is that a 11-22 start is hard to fight back from. But MUCH more of it is because of four very large holes in our offense.

One of those I can forgive - Morel is a rook and at least seems to battle up there, even if he doesn't provide much for average, OBA, speed, or power. Plus, he's a hell of a glove man at third and seems to have a good attitude.

I can't fully forgive Beckham - this kid should be a star, stepping up when we need him most and carrying us to the next level, maybe not quite as much as CQ did in 2008, but definitely along the lines of how down the stretch and in the playoffs, Dye became a viable support piece to Konerko in 2005.

Instead, Beckham's regressed tremendously, to the point that in a key series, the Indians regularly walked Flowers (fresh up from AAA and before he clearly shown himself to have a hot bat) to get to Beckham, and then made Beckham look foolish every time.

But I only place some of the blame on Beckham, who clearly has the same issue as Konerko and Quentin - a lack of the necessary fortitude to bear down and overcome their momentary failings. The other part - the larger part - is squarely on Walker, who is charged with developing young hitters like Beckham and has clearly failed to do so (remember how nasty he was in the 2nd half of 2009 and 2010 - about as good as any 2B out there?).

Still, you can afford a pair of middling bats in your lineup and still win, at least if they're playing good defense. And make no mistake, Beckham and Morel are playing as good of defense as anyone at their respective positions.

However, what you can't overcome is two lynchpins of your lineup not only failing to live up to cornerstone status, but instead playing every single day at the worst levels of production of any regular in all of baseball. In fact, historically bad performances from both Dunn and Rios. And that's been the difference between a 2011 we'd cherish as Sox fans and one of the most frustrating ones we hopefully ever have to deal with.

Hence why I'm all I TOLD YOU SO today - the "other options" that Kenny and Ozzie wouldn't even take a shot on have come on to rip things up here in August.

Again, take the best pitching and defense in the league over a 100-game clip, add in a stellar Konerko, AJ, and JP, a respectable enough Quentin and Alexei, and then two more productive spots in the order. Even w/ two zeroes we were 14 games above .500... now imagine if you replace the .200 AVG, .270 OBA, .300 SLG of Dunn/Rios w/ that wicked 25-game tear we've seen of these youngsters?

Now figure they settled down as the league caught up to them a bit and we saw a pretty pedestrian .250 AVG, .320 OBA, .420 SLG performance out of those two spots for the rest of the way. Where would we be?

I'm saying the standings would be reversed - we'd be up 5-7 games heading into September. The Tigers and Indians would well on their way to falling completely out of the race as our superior pitching, defense, and timely hitting exposed their very flawed teams as the post-season pretenders they are.

We'd have profited from the initial June hot streak to give us more confidence as a team. We'd also have benefited from the presence of youngsters who are hungry, giving the team energy and a different approach in the field. I mean we've seen it already - De Aza and Lillibridge making the kind of plays on the bases and in the field evidencing a fire we haven't seen out of Dunn or Rios, or even some of the other vets who are producing. Fact is that prospects looking to prove they belong add a spark, a bit of edge, some desire that firmly entrenched vets rarely can muster.

Add it all up, and yes, I think this team would own this division by now and cake walk to the playoffs. And come the playoffs... well more on that later. Because first, I've just got to throw more shots at Kenny and Ozzie.

Yes, Rios and Dunn's epic failures were wholly unexpected and a huge challenge to what both Kenny and Ozzie were trying to do in their roles with this club. BUT, if everyone lived up to expectations, being a successful coach or GM wouldn't be too challenging.

The best measure of a good coach or GM is being able to roll with the inevitable unpredictability that is thrown at you ever year - good and bad - and find a way to be a success all the same. Both Kenny and Ozzie were thrown directly into the line of fire in the worst way this season with these Dunn and Rios implosions.

Unfortunately, both guys froze under the pressure. They did absolutely nothing. Kenny, Mr. "Take The Big Risks," didn't make a single roster move to provide alternatives - be it from within or on the trade market. And Ozzie waited too long to make any significant changes, even now still shying away from the big moves that are sickeningly necessary.

Quick example - he's batted Rios in the #4 slot the past two nights. Against RHPs. Rios, on the year, is hitting .191 against righties in 330 ABs (as opposed to .276 against lefties)! It took me two seconds to find that stat! 330 ABs - this is no fluke. The guy can't figure out righties this season. Yes, of course the Sox lineup is hurting without Quentin and with Dunn rightfully finally benched.

But just as before, there are real options aside running out the same garbage veteran to be as terrible as ever. Sure, Flowers, Viciedo, Lillibridge, and De Aza aren't ideal #4 hitters, given how green they are. Sure you hate to put that pressure on these guys, especially when they're already doing so much to carry the Sox offense.

Yet, when the choice is batting a sub .200 hitter behind Paulie or a red hot rookie, how on Earth do you not go with the freakin red hot rook?!? Especially when sitting Rios also gets Lillibridge's bat in the lineup... a bat that's slugged an out-of-this-world .587 with 5 pumps in 50 August plate appearances!

But why should I be surprised with Ozzie's continued idiocy, cowardice, and narrow-mindedness, given how that's the way Ozzie has handled Dunn and Rios all year? I mean one horrible month is a slump - happens to the best of 'em. Six to seven weeks is a serious issue... but maybe there's still hope yet. If you suck historically bad for over two months after posting a long track record of success? I'm sorry - if you haven't figured it out on the job for over two straight months, then it's time something drastic happened.

That's where Ozzie and Kenny have failed us Sox fans to a sickening extent this season... a fireable one that I hope Reinsdorf is well, well aware of. On any level of baseball, from Little League on up, it's the job of the coach and team director to make the tough decisions that need to be made. At the big league level, where these guys make millions and millions of dollars, it's even more true. And yet, both just sat there and stole Reinsdorf and his partners' money, feeding the press the same whiny line about "What can I do?"

Given how horrible Dunn and Rios were, ANY big league capable bat would have been a marked improvement over either guy - yet Kenny didn't bring in anyone. Nor did he turn to Viciedo, Flowers, or De Aza, just sitting there in AAA, ripping it up, chomping at the bit for their chance.

Moving them down in the lineup? Given them a day or two off? Ozzie waited too long to even do those things, so that by the time he did, they were just cop outs. They weren't gonna change anything... and they didn't.

No, guys making the money Ozzie and Kenny make, entrusted with the huge responsibility of running the on-field operations of an institution like the White Sox need to have the balls to look Adam Dunn and Alex Rios in the face and tell them that after over two months of tanking their team's chances, that they've lost the right to play every day.

At some point in June, Dunn and Rios both should have been sat down, with no chance of getting their everyday jobs back for at least 3-4 weeks. Sounds too extreme? That was the view Ozzie and Kenny had of that suggestion, and it was one that a lot of apologetic and ignorant media types echoed.

But DAMMIT, HITTING .200 OR WORSE FOR OVER TWO MONTHS WHEN YOU HAVE A LONG TRACK RECORD OF BIG LEAGUE SUCCESS IS ALREADY EXTREME!! Trite as it is, extreme times do call for extreme measures. Nothing should be off the table when you struggle that bad for that long... and yet Kenny and Ozzie refused to even consider sitting these guys for a few weeks and seeing what someone else could do in their stead.

If either player bitched or sulked, Kenny and Ozzie could have pointed out that they had just spent 2+ months killing the hopes of their teammates, who since May 6th had been playing pretty good ball. That Dunn and Rios owed their teammates and fans for the damage they'd done, so if that meant sitting and not complaining, they should willingly oblige.

Faking an injury or talking them into a AAA stint would have been ideal, but if those weren't realistic options, then Kenny and Ozzie should have moved them to permanent bench roles. Rios is an ideal 4th OF, able to come in to pinch run or play defense late, or play against the concessional lefty. Dunn would be your left-handed pinch-hitting option - sure he can't hit, but maybe he'd draw a walk or even K, allowing the next guy up to do the damage.

Look, it's not ideal, but it's FAR more ideal than having these two guys destroy an otherwise strong team. And that is exactly what they did thanks to Kenny and Ozzie's cowardly, stubborn, and arrogant refusal to bench these guys in June, July, and into August.


Is it guaranteed these kids would have had this same hot streak back in June? Of course not. But they've certainly proved they had those capabilities, and thus, Kenny & Ozzie should have rolled the dice on their upside instead of continued to blindly follow the miserably failed path of sticking with Dunn & Rios.

I see three good outcomes that could have followed:

1) Sometimes, when you're dialed in you just stay that way. De Aza, Viciedo, Flowers, and Lillibridge have all been red hot for large parts of the year. Whether they are truly this good or not doesn't matter - it's possible they just are having one of those hot seasons (let's call it "Pulling a Loaiza").

2) Between De Aza/Lillibridge in CF and Flowers/Viciedo at DH, I'm thinking at least one guy in each pairing would have turned out to be solid over the long haul this year. Lillibridge falls back to Earth (as he did in May and June)? Great, you give more ABs to De Aza. League catches up to De Aza? Then go back to Lillibridge (just like Ozzie was forced to do by Paulie's injury in August, which resulted in some great Lillibridge play of late). Between four guys with MLB-possible talent, if just one had turned out to be just OK, it would have been a big jump from either Dunn or Rios for the last 2+ months.

3) I firmly believe that Rios or Dunn could have had their season saved. Again, to hammer Rongey despite his being immensely cool enough to read and respond to my last post, the idea that you can't sit your way out of a slump is probably the most wrong-headed thing I've ever heard ever stated in all of sports. The entire long history of baseball is filled with guys who had terrible seasons coming back and lighting it up the next year after "sitting" in the off-season.

Everyone knows baseball is a hugely mental game and that the reasons you're hitting well or poorly are often near-impossible to lock down. It makes sense that one fix to a longterm slump is a massive mental break from the game.

So yeah, I do believe it's realistic to think that Dunn and/or Rios could have had a good to even great second half. I do think that after trying to "play through it" didn't work for two-plus months, maybe sitting for the next month would have. When you're facing something you've never faced before - a historically bad slump - why is it unreasonable to try something you've never done before - become a limited bench player - to get out of it?

Again, a bit of I TOLD YOU SO - playing through it sure as heck didn't solve anything for either Dunn or Rios (AND it screwed our Sox real bad in the standings). But the jury is still out on whether or not sitting Dunn and Rios for a month at some point in June might have rescued their second half.

In short - there were different ways that sitting those two and giving the kids (or some trade avenue) a shot would have been hugely beneficial for this team... and what's played out since then has largely confirmed these beliefs.


Alright, so I've done a great job patting myself on the back for realizing the Sox had a lot going for them back before anyone else (that early May post that saw the hot Sox pitching/defense run and bounce-backs from JP and AJ). And for realizing the stupidity of playing through a slump that passed the two month mark instead of at least trying the viable alternatives that existed. Yay me.

But what now? As a Sox fan, knowing that Ozzie and Kenny were wrong and I was right is cool, but it still leaves me rooting for a mediocre and highly inconsistent ball club that will most likely end up being one of the biggest wasted opportunities I've ever seen (replacing the 2003 team).

Can it still be salvaged? Do we need Viciedo/Flowers/De Aza/Lillibridge to continue this unreal August tear through September and October? Can we really hope Ozzie won't keep rolling Rios and Dunn out there? Is there any chance this hodge podge not only takes the division (which would be fun) but competes successfully in the playoffs (which is always the true goal, now that we've tasted how good a title run can be).

I don't know what Ozzie will do - he's proven he's an idiot by how he's handled Dunn and Rios this year, and also by how he's allowed Walker to fail talented hitter after talented hitter for years now, and for how he's mismanaged any personality - outside AJ - who doesn't fall perfectly in line with what he wants. But here's what I hope he does if he weren't a terrible manager:

Until CQ comes back (after Labor Day), against righties I'm starting De Aza in center. Rios has hit .190 in 330 ABs against righties - he should never see another right-handed pitcher this year. In right, I'm platooning Lillibridge and Viciedo, depending on who's swinging the best bat. I also have the option to move Lillibridge to center if he's playing well and/or De Aza starts to struggle. With AJ back in a few days, I have the flexibility to DH Viciedo or Flowers in my "vs. RHP" lineup. Once CQ is healthy, he becomes a RF/DH, depending on who among Viciedo, Flowers, or Lillibridge is in the other spot that that day.

Against lefties, Flowers moves behind the plate (AJ has hit lefties just fine, but why not buy him days off to keep him fresh down the stretch?), Rios goes to center (he's hitting .280 against lefties this year), with Lillibridge in right and Viciedo DHing. When CQ gets back, again he becomes a RF/DH, depending on whether I'm using Viciedo, Lillibridge, or Rios that day. Plus, I've got flexibility with those three to sit someone else for a day off or if they're slumping.

As for Dunn? I'm sorry, but I just don't trust him to even pinch hit. Righty-lefty be damned - most righties can actually hit righties respectably. I'd rather take a flyer on one of my righties on the bench than have Dunn up there in a key situation. Basically, I'm shutting this guy down, unless somehow I clinch the division with a few games left, then I start him and bat him #3 to maximize his ABs and see if he magically found it again.

I know, I know - (begin whiny voice now) "How can the Sox expect to win without Dunn's bat and with the likes of unproven De Aza, Lillibridge, Flowers, and Viciedo getting everyday ABs? Sure, maybe you grind out an ugly division, but come on, no way this ballclub can win a pennant against the likes of New York and Boston with those guys. You ultimately need a big-mashing Dunn and even a hot Rios if you're realistically gonna take this thing."

And to that, good sirs, I say you need to learn your history. First off, your very own 2005 White Sox had an offense that limped into the post-season with 1.5 legit bats. After Everett stopped hitting anything more than an occasional slap single, the Sox were left with Konerko - definitely the man - and Dye - a respectable but not amazing hitter. No one else was anything more than grindy. Yet the got it done in historic fashion that October.

The 2001 DBacks lineup had juiced-to-the-gills 57-HR Luis Gonzalez... and not a whole lot else, but still ended the great Yankees dynasty. The 2002 Halos played in the steroid era, yet didn't have a single noteworthy bat. And just last year, the Giants won it all with a lineup of rejects and retreads, top to bottom.

Finally, I'll throw out there the 2006 Cardinals - every mediocre fringe playoff contending team's patron saint. They backed into the playoffs thanks to a crap division, then somehow lucked their way into a title by doing just enough to win and catching every lucky break along the way (remember, that was the World Series where the Tigers pitchers made about 7 errors that allowed runs).

Sitting at the game these past two nights, mocking the Twins lineup that barely had 3 real major leaguers in it, I looked at the Sox lineup and realized that we weren't that far ahead of them. But then I watched as Viciedo, Flowers, and De Aza just kept finding ways to score us runs. And I watched how the defense made all the plays - fancy and routine. I watched how Buehrle got in a groove and wouldn't let anything get him out of it. I watched how the bullpen came in and bailed out Stewart, allowing the O a chance to get back in it.

So yeah, I do think that a lineup with Viciedo, Flowers, De Aza, and Lillibridge playing roles could most definitely win a World Series title. As the numbers above show, the pitching and defense is there. It's just a matter of the offense finally delivering enough to regularly capitalize on all the great pitching and defense we've gotten.

JP is back to the high end top of the order guy I've always loved. Quick aside, but for all you haters who were somehow blaming him for the Sox bad start - this guy's average never fell below .240, and was only below .260 for a 3-week stretch. Ditto his OBA, largely above .320 and only below that for a 3-week slide. That's a difference of maybe a hit a week between what he was doing and what you expected him to do.

JP was never the reason we were 11-22 nor failed to capitalize on this incredible 100-game run we've been on with our pitching and D. Yes, he's no Rickey, but he's definitely a lead-off guy you can win with at the levels he produces these days - .285 hitter, .335 OBA and a lot of hits when it matters.

I'd like to see if De Aza and Lillibridge can handle the everyday #2 hitter job. And that's also one thing I wish Ozzie would have tried a while ago with Rios. Maybe now's the time - as I said, he's hitting about .280 against lefties, which is more than enough to be a good #2. I don't think he's a particularly good bunter or even contact guy, but maybe forcing him into a role in the lineup he's not used to will give him the change of perspective he needs to get back on track.

If that doesn't work, then I'd throw AJ in here. This nonsense about lefty-righty is killing me - who cares if JP and AJ are back-to-back? Are teams really going out of there way to get JP and AP out late in the game? If so, god bless em - let them burn their pens out. And in the meantime, AJ does all the things you want out of a #2 - contact (hardest guy to K in the bigs), bunts (that Minnesota upbringing) and heads-up hitting (behind runners) and base-running (is there anyone smarter?).

#3 is Paulie, who has not taken his foot off the gas all year, despite the crumbling O around him. #4 would be Quentin, streaky and frustrating, but still a guy other teams have to respect behind Paulie. #5 would be Alexei if he can get hot again. The guy is a streak hitter, but unfortunately, after a torrid May, has been decidedly mediocre in June, July, and now August. But maybe that means he's about to get hot - if so, he can definitely serve as a respectable #5.

If not, I'd push him down to #6 and elevate Viciedo/Flowers to the #5 spot. That's a lot of pressure on two very unproven hitters, but you assume one of these guys becomes a legit bat or just stays hot, and thus is decent enough behind Paulie and Quentin to not kill your rallies (looking at you, Dunn).

At #7, if I'm using AJ at #2, I'd put Lillibridge/De Aza here. Some nice pop and speed in the back third of your lineup. If I'm using those guys as my #2, then I'm slotting in either Beckham or Morel here, whomever is hitting better. Personally I think that's gonna be Morel - he's no great shakes, but at least seems to battle up there and give you good at-bats for a rookie. Beckham looks lost and without confidence, and it's beyond time where I'd hope for his normal second half surge. Fortunately he's playing great D so he can still contribute.

At #8, I'm putting AJ (if he's not up at #2). I like how AJ has hit all year and I like having a veteran I can count on back here, breaking up the relatively easy outs that Beckham and Morel can be.

Finishing things up is either Beckham or Morel. Both of these guys play such good defense that I'm fine with them being near offensive zeroes in the #9 slot.


Does this offense stack up against Texas, New York, or Boston? Lord, the top two or three hitters on those teams could easily out-produce our entire lineup. But I'm putting my faith in pitching and defense with just enough timely hitting

I say our pitching can keep those teams in check and that our hitting can do just enough against the humongous holes in the pitching staff that all three of those teams have.

In fact, I'd say I'm more scared of teams like the Rays and Angels sneaking into the playoffs, with their strong pitching, great defense, and no-name offensive attacks. I'd much rather the Sox be the only team in that group, and join the 2010 Giants, 05 Sox, 02 Angels, and 01 DBacks on the list of underwhelming offenses that won rings in recent years.

So yeah, once again I'm not giving up hope for this year. But I have completely given up on Ozzie and am starting to lean very hard in that direction with Kenny. Even if we miraculously win the title, an despite the dearth of managerial and GM talent out there, Reinsdorf would be wise to shake things up and bring in some new faces to run everything. Gut it all (except Coop and our other pitching coaches, and any good scouts we have) and start fresh with guys who stress fundamentals from an organizational development and acquisition level, and then execute it on the playing field throughout the organization.

And if Reinsdorf is interested now that I've proven myself smarter than their current job holders, I'd be willing to at least listen to a White Sox offer to take over the team. I'm not committing to anything, but I'll allow myself to be wooed.

-