The Teahen Herald

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So this will be only my third post since August ended, and all three will be about Mark Teahen - a mediocre utility guy.

Actually, that's why I keep writing these. Because Mark Teahen is just a mediocre utility guy. He's had over 1600 at-bats during the previous three seasons, and they've produced a very, VERY convincing body of work that Mark Teahen is mediocre. There were no flashes of potential, no great excuses for his troubles, no suggestion that he just needed a certain something or other to break out. Nope, Mark Teahen's resume screams that he is and always will be mediocre.

But apparently Kenny Williams feels otherwise. Apparently he saw something in those 1600+ ABs that didn't come through in the standard numbers. Yep, a consistent 500 at-bats a year for three straight years, all producing mediocrity, but somehow Kenny sees something different.

And thus I am forced to vent my anger here. Three times.

Why do I need to do it today? Because Kenny just signed Mr. Mediocre to a three year extension with the Sox, paying him just under $5M per.


In case you don't remember what kind of player Teahen is, allow myself to quote... myself:

• "He's a career .269-.331-.419 guy who averages about 9 steals a year and plays decent but not exceptional D.
  
  To put those numbers in perspective - they'd be mediocre for a 2B or SS, let alone the corner spots. Or more specifically, Scotty Pods this year, Brian Anderson in 2008, and Rob Mackowiak in 2007 all had higher slugging percentages than Teahen has had in any of the last three seasons. Just look at that list of players. Now think about the fact that they had MORE power than Teahen. Yep."

I was already broken-hearted about the fact that we gave up a prospect and were now going to give over 400-600 ABs to this guy, but now Kenny has decided to twist the knife by giving Teahen around the same amount of money that last off-season would have bought you one of these two players:

• .293 Avg, 15 HR, 96 R, 103 RBI, .390 OBA, .435 SLG while hitting #2 or #3 on one of the top 4 teams in baseball.
• .267 Avg, 38 HR, 81 R, 105 RBI, .398 OBA, .529 SLG while playing 1B, LF, and RF with regularity.

Those are the stat lines of Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn, respectively - ever heard of em? And it's not like either of those stat lines were out of the ordinary - those are pretty much exactly what the teams who gave them $5M each thought they'd be buying. Abreu and Dunn are two of the most consistent producers in all of baseball. Neither has any personal or lockerroom issues or anything, and while both are subpar defenders, they are still fully capable of playing in the field everyday in the bigs.

The reason such players were signed for so cheap is because teams, just like the rest of us, do not have any money these days. Almost everyone is tapped out in their payroll. Free agency is quiet and non-lucrative for all but the chosen few. Abreu and Dunn were not outliers last off-season and there most certainly will be a couple more such cases this off-season.


Look at the relatively stable numbers Teahen has shown over the last three years, add in a (very non-guaranteed) bump from playing in a offensive-friendly Cell, and we can confidently predict what we'll get - average between .260 and .290, 10-20 HRs, 65-85 runs, 50-65 RBI, 320-.360 OBA, around a .425 SLG %, and 5-15 steals.

Compare those to what Dunn and Abreu got last off-season. Is there any question that Kenny just overpaid like a total moron?


Now let's add the $5M per that Kenny is blowing on Teahen (instead of sticking with the near costless Getz, who will at worst be equally mediocre, at best round into a nice role player) and throw it together with the $15M he stupidly stuck himself with in Rios, and think about all we could acquire in an absolute buyers market this off-season. Leadoff hitter? Check. Lefty and Righty out of the pen? Check. Slugging left-handed DH/corner OF? Check.

Basically, almost all of our needs could have been met with those $20M that Kenny has now given to Teahen (decidedly mediocre) and Rios (mediocre might be best-case).


I actually didn't give Kenny a ton of heat when we first made the Rios move, as I was trying to focus on the upside that he had and how it would fit so well with what I wanted to do. But time to reflect has made me realize that while the upside is there, it wasn't worth even close to $60M in this market. So I'm gonna hope Rios becomes that plus CF 30-30 guy everyone drooled over a few years ago, but I'm still gonna be bitter at Kenny for making a bad move in getting him at full price.

Similarly, Teahen could end up alright. Maybe he has a career year and hits .290 w/ 20 HRs, 75 R, and 75 RBI in 550 ABs (yes, that would be a career year for the 28-year old). You know, basically like Juan freakin Uribe did last year (had he been given 550 ABs). For $1M. After we cut him lose.

Am I saying bring back Uribe? Yes, but that's because I have an unhealthy but fully justified love affair with the man. But if I was being more "reasonable" my point would be that you can go out and find the Mark Teahens and Juan Uribes of the world for chump change. These kind of guys don't have big upside and have plenty of downside, and there are a lot of them. So take advantage of the market being in your favor and fill that spot for $1M and some incentives. Hell, get two of them and double the odds that one will turn out as you hoped.

Instead, Kenny just gave this pile of mediocrity $14M. In this market. After taking on the $60M that Rios is owed, while the guy was smack dab in the middle of a multi-year slump that was only getting worse.

So can you blame me for taking three straight posts to bitch about how idiotic the Sox are being of late?

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Because I don't ever want to be grouped with all the other whiners and cynics out there (why is it that local sports media is dominated by uber-negative types who revel in thinking the worst of everything?), I'll leave you with one positive rumor to come out of the winter meetings - the Sox are supposedly pursuing Juan Pierre.

I know, a lot of people out there hate Juan Pierre. You are idiots. Some things to chew on:

1. Chone Figgins, who's a very similar offensive player (same speed and lack of power, better OBA but lower average), was just given $36M over 4 years by the Mariners. Remember, Figgins spent the two seasons before his walk year regularly visiting the DL.

Considering that deal, does the $18.5M for the next two years that Pierre has left look that bad? Especially when you consider that unlike Figgins, Pierre NEVER misses time - regularly clocking in at 700+ plate appearances?

2. For the past two seasons, Pierre has played part-time, so let's combine and reduce those into one 650 AB year and then look at what he's done since becoming a regular in 2001:

08-09 - 650 ABs, .295 avg, 192 hits, 86 R, 60 SB
07 - 668 AB, .293 avg, 196 hits, 96 R, 64 SB
06 - 699 AB, .292 avg, 204 hits, 87 R, 58 SB
05 - 656 AB, .276 avg, 181 hits, 96 R, 57 SB
04 - 678 AB, .326 avg, 221 hits, 100 R, 45 SB
03 - 668 AB, .305 avg, 204 hits, 100 R, 65 SB
02 - 592 AB, .287 avg, 170 hits, 90 R, 47 SB
01 - 617 AB, .327 avg, 202 hits, 108 R, 46 SB

Have you ever seen such consistency in any player? Let alone a leadoff hitter? Isn't that the epitome of a leadoff hitter's job - to consistently spark the offense? Seriously, how much better would the Sox have been in every one of those seasons if they had Pierre's numbers instead of whatever piece of garbage they used to try to lead off?

Does Pierre walk? Nope. But he's no free-swinger - this guy only strikes out about 40 times a year, despite getting well over 700 plate appearances a year. And he makes up for his lack of walks by playing every single day, being the best base-stealer of his generation, and consistently getting hits. He bunts, makes good contact, and runs the bases well. In short, he does everything that we as Sox fans wish our guys would do.

3. Pierre would cost the Sox next to nothing to acquire, because the Dodgers so badly want to get out from under his salary (they have Manny, Kemp, and Ethier locked into their OF) and for some retarded reason, no one in baseball appreciates Pierre's value.

4. With Rios around, Pierre can play left, where he'd actually be a plus defender and his lack of an arm would be better hidden.

5. Pierre knows how to win, having sparked the 2003 Marlins to the World Series by hitting over .300 with 12 R, 7 RBI, 6 extra base hits, 3 steals, and 8 walks in 17 playoff games that year. He also showed himself a very impressive team player the past two seasons in LA, giving up his starting job for first the young guys and then Manny, but still bouncing back with tremendous production whenever he was called upon.


Hopefully Teahen makes me eat all three of these posts, but I fear that is not a very likely possibility, especially not for three straight seasons. I actually do have some confidence Rios can turn it around - he's a talented player and the fresh start here should make a difference. Here's to hoping the off-season was all he needed.

And if we can somehow get Juan Pierre, you're gonna see a very, very happy White Sox fan, despite Kenny's last two moves being financial missteps of a huge degree coming at the worst possible time to misspend money.

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Upon Further Review... Still "Boooooooo!"

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I've had some time to mull it over, get past the initial emotional and kneejerk reactions and really let the Getz-for-Teahen trade sink in. I've talked to a few Sox fans about the Teahen trade since it happened and most seem OK with it. The responses I keep hearing all center on how Getz isn't that great.

Sorry fellas, but you're missing the point. If you've really been living and dying with the Sox for the last 10 years, you know that aside from 2005, this team has been way, WAY too one-dimensional and consistently lost to a squad with far less talent who played the game right.

Now we finally have a guy who is exactly in that mold, a Piranha, and all of you are OK getting rid of him to add a guy who strikes out a boatload, isn't fast, isn't good, and costs a bunch more?

REALLY?

Well, for every one of you who responded as such to this trade, I want you to swear on your 2005 White Sox Media Guide that you will not complain when we inevitably go through a terrible slump next year because all of our power bats go cold at once (just like has happened every year since 2000, including 2005).

And you also can't complain about how Ozzie doesn't run enough.

And you also also can't complain about how we have no fire or grinders.

And you also also also can't complain about how our defense is subpar.

Nope, you all supported a deal that did the exact opposite of what every well-informed Sox fan wants to see out of this club - better fundamentals, more speed, more small ball, strong defense, more bunting, players hitting behind runners, fewer Ks, a more consistent offense, etc etc etc etc etc.

Now you must suffer in silence.


Here's why, in convenient list form:

1) Getz deserved more of a chance to show what he could do. He had flashes of being a plus average hitter and getting on base with consistency, and he was certainly capable at second and a great base-stealer. All the talk leading into the season was that he had a good swing that would hold up and how Getz should develop into a nice major leaguer. So why give up on the kid after one year - a year when he was at least capable?

Wouldn't an energetic, plus average, solid OBA, very good speed guy who'd do whatever you asked to help the team win be a great guy to lock down 2B and the 9th spot (or eventually even the #2 slot) in the order for the next 5-7 years? Especially when he'd cost peanuts that whole time?


2) Not convinced? OK, so let's give the Sox the benefit of the doubt and say Getz wasn't a big leaguer. Very plausible - the guy certainly didn't light it up and might not have much upside. Plus who was the last guy the Sox got rid of who consistently excelled (strictly from a numbers perspective)?

Even accepting we got better just by not giving Getz 600 ABs, the correct move was to go out and find a better version of that exact type of ballplayer! The Sox DESPERATELY need speed, grit, and consistency. They need more guys who won't allow Ozzie to use a one-dimensional lineup as an excuse to avoid small ball. They need more guys who can help spark the offense during the inevitable and frequent lulls that the sluggers will go through. So if Getz wasn't the answer, work the phones and find someone who is.

While we haven't really had to regret the on-field performance of players they jettisoned (at least not from anyone doing it year in and year out), we absolutely have had to regret the loss of a player's fire, style, and intangibles. You think that 2006 Sox team, with all the talent of the 2005 team PLUS Thome and Vazquez, failed in part because they missed the energy and attitude brought by Rowand, Willie Harris, and Carl Everett?

Or last year's team, which had far more talent than the 2008 team - you think it's a coincidence that The OC and Swish were playing in October while the Sox were out golfing? Numbers aside, these guys provided the Sox chemistry elements we desperately needed. The talk of the entire 2008 season was how that clubhouse was unlike anything anyone had seen in baseball.

One obvious major factor was Swish, with his crazy, fun-loving antics. On a club full of guys like Paulie and Quentin, who take every bad at-bat so hard, you need someone to keep things loose. Coupled with "The King of the Shaving Cream Pie to the Face" Toby Hall, the Sox were more able to roll with the inevitable ups and downs of a long season.

Equally necessary was Cabrera filling the role previously held by Big Frank - that of "dick." On a team of laid back, self-focused guys like Paulie and Thome, you need the intense competitor who doesn't accept less than the best from those around him. And not in a nice way either - a guy who intimidates others into keeping their focus and doing things right because they don't want to piss off the douchebag. AJ fills the role admirably, but when he's the only one, it doesn't have as much of an impact. Add in a second dick, and now guys have to really concern themselves with facing the wrath of a teammate unless they get their jobs done right. I think that ups the intensity and focus, keeping the team playing as it needs to day in and day out.

Similarly, the Sox need a few Getz-like types to bring a bit of energy and grit, to be the lunch box guy doing whatever is needed. I'm not asking for a whole squad full like the Twins have - just a few of them to make the Sox a bit more dynamic. Steal a base, move a guy over, hustle to break up a double play - these little things take pressure off everyone else and get them focusing on doing little things themselves.

Consider this - 1st and 2nd, yet another Sox longballer up w/ no outs. They swing away - good odds are that if they are fortunate enough to avoid the double play, they still won't get a hit or move the runners. Now Quentin follows, and is immediately trying to do too much. He's thinking about how he needs to hit a big 3-run jack to salvage what started as a nice rally but is fast becoming a huge missed opportunity. At the same time, the pitcher is now feeling more confident, working with all the pressure on the hitter. The odds are stacked against CQ coming through.

The alternative - same no out situation, but now a Getz-like player bunts, sets up a 2nd and 3rd with one out for Quentin. CQ is now looking only to drive the ball and bring in a single run w/ a sac fly. Pressure's off and he's in a place to succeed. At the same time, the pitcher is feeling the heat, knowing even a good pitch can plate a run and a bad one can blow open the game. Odds have now swung significantly in the Sox favor.

Over the course of a 162-game season, that situation presents itself over and over. For the last 10 years, the Sox have built their team in a way that puts themselves in the first situation far, far more often than the second. That not only leads to fewer wins, but it leads to longer losing streaks and more frustrated, inconsistent hitters. Eliminating a Getz-type from the roster for a non-Getz type will only exacerbate that problem, giving us more stretches of futile offense and loss ground in the standings.


3) So you don't like Getz and don't even think we need (or can get) a similar player who's more capable? You're an idiot, but I'll humor you for a second. Tell me - what on Earth does Teahen bring to this team, besides $2M in lost payroll and at-bats being taken up by a mediocre hitter? That $2M that could have gotten us another strong veteran arm in the bullpen, something every contending team always needs. And as I made clear in my last post, Teahen's got no power, doesn't hit for average, isn't fast, and isn't great on D. And here's something I missed before - he strikes out all the time. Isn't that exactly the opposite of the type of guy we want to get 500 plus ABs next year? What possible good can come from his presence in the lineup every day?


4) Now let's just say that Getz tanks and Teahen does have a solid season. The trade works out perfectly for the Sox. I still don't like moving a guy out of third base who showed himself capable of playing there. Check the Hall of Fame or the list of needs teams are entering this (or any) off-season with. It's clear as day that the hot corner is one of the hardest positions to fill. So why the hell are the Sox moving Beckham away from this spot?

Beckham looks like a shoe-in to be a productive big leaguer for years and won't cost you much of anything for another 4-5 seasons. Isn't that the perfect way to cover one of the harder to fill spots on the diamond? I mean even if Teahen does have a fluke great season (remember, he's been completely mediocre for three straight years), that only means you'll have to pay him a bunch of money in 2011, most likely for a return-to-form mediocre season. Heck even if he somehow strings two good years together, that just means you're losing him to free agency in 2012.

So why move Beckham away for the longshot of two good years of Teahen? To clear room for Viciedo, who everyone says is already overweight and only 20? As I am living proof of, it does NOT get easier to lose weight the older you get... pretty much the exact opposite. To open up a spot for some other prospect who's gonna come up and probably suck, a la Fields, BA, Owens, Borchard, etc? Just ask Cub fans how fun the almost uninterrupted three decades of 3B futility after Santo were.


5) Accepting that Getz sucks, Teahen is good, and you do find a longterm answer at 3B along the way - why on Earth would you move a franchise guy capable at another position to 2B, one of the easiest spots to fill? Especially when 2B is the perfect place to find a guy who can hit for average, has good speed, and will get his uniform dirty - i.e. the exact type of players we've been missing since 05? Go back over the last 3-5 years - guys like Polanco, Loretta, Grudzlanek, DeRosa, Iwamura, Matsui, Castillo, Iguchi, Counsell have all helped some contending team make the playoffs, win pennants, and earn rings by doing the little things from the 2B position.

If Beckham came up as a 2B and/or couldn't play anywhere else, so be it. But why would you make a franchise guy learn his third position in a year's time, just to fill a 2B slot when it's so easy to find needed grinders to do the same thing?


This deal has just thrown my whole outlook for this off-season. Despite our struggles this past year, the Sox were evolving slowly into the type of team I wanted - a dynamic lineup that could hit for average and run just as well as beat you with the longball. A young nucleus of all-around players surrounded by a strong supporting cast. A deep starting staff, a strong back of the rotation, and capable arms to bridge the two.

Sure, we're still missing some pieces. It's not clear who will lead off nor how we'll take advantage of the DH opening. The bench needs some retooling. And the bullpen definitely requires some significant investment.

But I love the idea of Quentin, Alexei, Beckham, and Rios in the heart of the order, bringing average, speed, and pop. I like proven vets Konerko and AJ around them.

And I liked that Getz would be in place to pair with a legit lead-off hitter and maybe a more dynamic DH to give this team a scary, multi-dimensional offensive attack.

Looking at it now, I can live w/ losing Getz if I thought the Sox would replace him with a similar player. But instead we're gonna see a lot of at-bats of Teahen being horrendously mediocre, probably paired with a traditional slugging type left-handed DH (Thome and Matsui are the hottest rumors) that will tip the scales back to a beer league softball approach to the offense. The ability of Quentin, Alexei, Beckham, and Rios to run? That becomes a novelty item that won't factor into a day-to-day offense that lives and dies (and more often dies, as the last 10 years have shown) by hot streaks and timely hitting.

Too bad, because the rotation looks damn good with Buerhle, Danks, and Floyd giving you nasty middle of the rotation work behind Peavy and in front of a capable vet w/ upside in Garcia. Jenks and Thorton are tough in the back of the pen, while Carrasco, Pena, and Linebrink have the ability to be solid middle guys. Sure you still need another lefty and probably another capable righty to have a contending-caliber bullpen, but that's doable.

The pitching is close to being there - we just needed the right defense and lineup to make it all work. Another title was a realistic goal.


Well, it's impossible to predict what direction Kenny will go in, so I owe him the full off-season before I make my final conclusions on what to expect from the 2010 Sox. But step 1 has been pretty objectionable in going in the exact opposite direction we need to.

I'm so frustrated by this that I had to post twice on the topic because I just can't handle yet another season of having the most talented club in the division but doing nothing with it because we again we're too naive/delusional/incompetent/stubborn to ensure the team was built with a championship mix.


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Really, Kenny?!?

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I know Kenny deserves the benefit of the doubt, given his long history of great trades, especially all those that were initially very poorly received. But I've been reviewing this Getz-for-Teahen deal from every angle and just do not get it. And I really don't get why the baseball pundits out there seem to think this is a reasonable deal.



First off, I like Getz. Is he great? Nope, but I think he can be a .280+ hitter who steals 20+ bases (w/ getting thrown out much), plays solid D, and gets on at around a .350 clip. He'll be cheap and capable.

I also think Getz has got real upside - not star upside, but help you win upside. I see him being sure-handed in the field, running the bases well, making good contact, developing into a bunter - ya know, doing the things we all whine and cry for all season as the Twins are whooping our over-paid, fundamentally retarded asses.

And I really love that Getz will do it all while costing us next to nothing for the next 3-5 years. Don't discount how huge it is to get a starter-caliber player for right near the league minimum. That opens up significant resources that can be spent elsewhere (like in the bullpen, the one area besides the leadoff spot where the Sox have a boatload of questions to answer heading into 2010).


Second, Teahen's absolute ceiling is a decent Util guy. He has no power, no average, no speed, and is nothing special on D. And he's not young, so what you've seen in KC is what you get.

Don't give me that "career numbers in the Cell" garbage. Sometimes a guy can go to a better park and thrive (see everyone in Texas and Cincy), but as I learned w/ Swish, you can't automatically count on it elevating a guy.

And don't give me that "left-handed" guy crap - his numbers against righties are just as crappy as his overall stats.

So from what the 28-year old Teahen has shown in his almost 2500 career ABs over 5 years, if he's playing every day, we're a crappy ballclub. He just doesn't have the production to play 1B, 3B, or corner OF on a good team. He's a career .269-.331-.419 guy who averages about 9 steals a year and plays decent but not exceptional D.

To put those numbers in perspective - they'd be mediocre for a 2B or SS, let alone the corner spots. Or more specifically, Scotty Pods this year, Brian Anderson in 2008, and Rob Mackowiak in 2007 all had higher slugging percentages than Teahen has had in any of the last three seasons. Just look at that list of players. Now think about the fact that they had MORE power than Teahen. Yep.

Simply put, as a corner IF or OF, Teahen brings nothing to the table, and by playing everyday, he keeps you from getting ABs from someone who could actually help you at those spots.


Third, while I like Teahen as a corner Util, there are two major issues with acquiring him for that role. We already have Kotsay as our 1B/OF util, just signed today for the same $1.5M he made last year. Kotsay is no great shakes, but he plays solid D, does the little things well, is a good pinch hitter, and appreciates his role. That makes him nearly ideal in that role, and means Teahen adds nothing to our squad we don't already have.

More important though, Teahen is also WAY overpaid. He made almost $4M last year and will earn more this year in arbitration. For a util guy? And not even an exceptional one or one w/ upside? Especially when we're already pushing up against our own payroll restrictions and in need of help in multiple areas?!? If KC just gave us Teahen for a bag of balls (i.e. Josh Fields), I'd still be pissed, given what he'll make in arbitration and how we need to keep what little payroll we have available for more pressing needs this off-season.


So why the hell are we giving up viable younger starting player like Getz for an overpaid, underwhelming player with no upside who can only fill a role we just signed someone to fill? Especially in this day of of cheap and young being all the rage when you're building a roster?


Here's the only way this deal makes any sense:

First - if dumping Getz leads to moving Alexei back to 2B, keeping Becks at 3rd, and finding a real plus defensive SS. I like Getz and hate to see him go, but I'm not sold that Alexei can ever be a SS on a winner. Two years in a row he's totally lacked the mental focus to get the job done. At least when Alexei was at 2B he saw fewer plays, they weren't as demanding, and overall felt less pressure. I'd say Alexei was probably a good to average 2B in 2008. This year at short he was well below average and a big reason we had to watch Game 163 between two garbage Central rivals. So if the price of keeping Alexei (a talent who we can't give up on yet) and not having him play SS is losing Getz, then so be it.

This does open the question as to who will play short, but I think the Sox could get away with a vet who's a real plus defender and does the little things while hitting #9 (sort of a Getz replacement). You've got a great pitching staff that's costing you a huge part of your payroll - it only makes sense to support them with a tremendous defense.


Second - if the Royals send us some money to make Teahen affordable as a utility player. His ability to play a number of different spots and hit respectably makes Teahen a nice bench player. Sure we've already got Kotsay there, but its possible the Sox will be going with a very flexible roster this year, utilizing the DH spot to mix-and-match the lineup as needed. In such a scenario, two bench spots can be effectively used on Teahen and Kotsay. The only downside there becomes Teahen's salary, but if they can sign him for $4M and get KC to cover $2M (which they might, given the cost-savings Getz and Fields offer), then Teahen is at a pricepoint and in a limited role that allows him to actually be an asset to the 2010 Sox.

I'm a big proponent of a strong bench, and Teahen can be a strong bench player. But the Sox just can't be spending relatively big bucks on bench players this offseason, and thus this deal stinks of we're on the hook for over $4M to Teahen next season.


But lord help us if Mark Teahen ends up starting in the OF or at 3B next year, as many are speculating this move entails. That will be a disaster similar to the Wise fiasco this year - expecting too much out of a guy who's spent his whole career proving he can't get it done, and then struggling all season long to find a proper replacement. How this giant lump of mediocrity is being bandied around as a Jermaine Dye replacement in all the latest trade reports is incredible to me. It'd take Teahen between a year and half and two years to give the Sox the 30 HRs and 90+ RBI that Dye averaged on the South Side.

As I said, I know I owe Kenny the benefit of the doubt based on how well so many of his deals have turned out.

But I also can't forget the way Kenny turned a championship team into an also-ran by purging all its attitude guys (Frank, Willie Harris, Everett, and Rowand), the way did the exact same thing to the division title team last year (dumping OC and Swish), the way he flopped on remaking the 2007 pen, OF, and top of the order, and the way he still hasn't gotten this team to look any better fundamentally, despite years and years and years of losing to the fundamentally sound Twins while Kenny and Ozzie swear that next year, the Sox will play better fundamental ball.

As of yet, the deal hasn't been confirmed by anyone, and could very well look different than it's being reported. Kenny's MO is to have the final deal resemble nothing of the talk ahead of time (if there even was any talk ahead of time). But as it stands, I'm gonna be furious if we lose Getz only to overpay Teahen, and I'm gonna be really furious if Teahen's being acquired to play more than 2-3 times a week, max.


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Ozzie Should Be Feeling The Heat

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What a frustrating year to be a Sox fan. In fact, if it wasn't for a pretty brutal collapse by the Twins last year, this would be second straight season that Ozzie had lead a talented team who got some great years out of a lot of their players to a garbage also-ran finish.

Actually, it's worse than that. If the Twins hadn't collapse that weekend after they swept the Sox, Ozzie's post-World Series record would look like this:

• 2006 - Powerhouse offense leads a team that falls apart embarrassingly in the second half.
• 2007 - Worst season on the South Side since the late 80s.
• 2008 - Great break-out years from Alexei, Carlos, Danks, and Floyd all wasted on team incapable of winning a garbage division.
• 2009 - Strong rookie years from Getz and Beckham, solid years top-to-bottom from the vets, and a Top 3 of the rotation and Top 5 in the pen all w/ ERAs below 4 still incapable of winning another garbage division.

Is it revisionist history to ignore that the Twins did collapse and the fact that the Sox did what they needed in those last two pressure-filled games? Sure, a little bit.

But the point remains that the difference between Ozzie getting no heat from the press (as is the current situation) and getting a whole bunch is one lousy weekend by the Twins. And to me, that's BS. I'm looking bigger picture and I'm seeing Kenny building talented teams, seeing Reinsdorf's group spending good money, and I'm seeing Ozzie doing jack squat with it since that magical 2005 run.

It's time Ozzie has to answer the bell for what this team hasn't been able to do since winning the Series - i.e. be a legit contender. It was nice to win a division and make the playoffs last year, but the reality is we weren't ever considered a post-season threat. And we lived up to that, meekly bowing out to an inexperienced Rays squad in 4.

This year, there was some hope it'd all come together down the stretch and that with a full-go Peavy in the fold, the Sox would be dangerous. But I'm sorry, I've given up on that dream after what I've seen recently. And I'm generally as optimistic about the Sox as anyone.

To me, it's clear that Ozzie just hasn't been able to rediscover whatever it was he did right in 2005. None of his teams these past four seasons have been able to get it done consistently, despite having loads of players playing well. There just seems to be something missing - and it's different every year.

But one thing has been the same - Ozzie. So I'm gonna blame him for not being able to get the vets to hit with any consistency. I'm gonna blame him for not having anyone who can lay down a bunt.

Sidebar: Guess who's leading all of baseball (or near the lead) in sacrifice bunts this year? Javier Vazquez. So either Ozzie was too stupid or uncreative to realize he had a good bunter on his roster this whole time, or it's not that hard to figure out how to bunt if it's demanded of you (as it is by the Atlanta coaching staff of their pitchers).

I'm gonna blame Ozzie for how terrible the defense has been this season, despite having great athletes and good tools guys at every spot. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for how the bullpen fell apart in 2006, got worse in 2007, and again fell apart in 2008. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for not finding himself another leadoff hitter to replace Pods once he fell apart in 2006, until Pods magically returned to form this year. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for being unable to develop talented athletes who looked great in his farm system (Fields, Owens, BA).


And do you know what else I'm gonna blame Ozzie for? Not being able to close out series. This year, the Sox are 12-26 in the last game of a series. That's .316 baseball, or good enough for 111 losses if you played that way all year. 111 losses. That's the kind of team Ozzie puts out in the most important game of the series.

That last game always turns the whole feel of the series. Obviously when you're tied 1-1, that game dictates who gets the ever-important series win. If you're down 0-2 or 0-3, avoiding the sweep is huge. Same the other way - not letting that sweep get away from you on the last day is big to getting a nice win streak going.

Most telling of all - in this last month, Ozzie's guys have not won one single final game of a series. With all the pressure on, with every game possibly meaning the series, with every bit of momentum necessary to grind through these final weeks of the season, the Sox have put up a big giant goose egg in the most important game of each series.


Look, Ozzie is an above average manager, no question. But that's not saying much - there are a ton of bad managers out there. What is clear to me is that Ozzie is not one of the great managers. Gardenhire (MIN), Mike Scioscia (LAA), Torre (LAD), LaRussa (STL), and Cox (ATL) are all clearly in a class above Ozzie.

Does that mean the Sox should fire Ozzie? I can't say I'd support that - as I said, there just are too few good managers out there. But I do think Kenny needs to make clear that Ozzie's performance isn't cutting it. I think they need to upgrade the rest of the coaching staff - bringing in a bench coach who can provide Ozzie with a bit of strategy (something he never shows an ability to do himself) and a third base coach who has a clue (man I hate Cox - never have I seen a third base coach who is both too conservative and too aggressive... he is SO clueless!).

But most of all, I think Ozzie needs to be made to understand that he's not getting it done. He needs to feel more personal responsibility for the failures in base-running, defense, bunting, and other fundamentals. That stuff is about attitude and commitment, not talent, and those come from the manager.

If the Sox don't have the pitching or hitting to win, so is life. But the Sox have had those things in pretty much every year Ozzie has been here, yet only once have they ever done anything with it. It's time Ozzie realizes his job is to be more than a mouthpiece for the club. It's time he approaches his job like NFL coaches approach theirs - working 20 hour days, taking in every bit of film possible, spending hours in strategy meetings, working with his entire staff at all times. It's time he realizes that he alone will determine if they execute, if they play good fundamental baseball, if they take pride in their defense and base-running.

Because the Sox have the talent - they've had it for years - but they don't have the execution. And that execution in all those facets is on Ozzie, and Ozzie alone.


It's probably too late this year, but I want the Sox to get something out of this wasted year and that something is Ozzie realizing he needs to completely rededicate himself to his job, with the help of a couple of highly committed, highly intelligent baseball guys as his bench and third base coaches.

Combine that with the impressive collection of talent this club has next year and 2010 can be something special, another 2005 for us all. But if Ozzie doesn't get it together with some help from a new staff, then I foresee another frustrating year of shoulda-woulda-couldas on the Southside.


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What the Rios Acquisition Means

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I have absolutely no time to do this right now, with a wicked busy week of work, my 19th annual fantasy football draft in less than two weeks, and a 1-month old at home... but come on, that was a MAJOR move last night with all sorts of implications and I've just been swallowing my Sox thoughts for too long. So here goes...

First off, let's respect who Alex Rios really is:

• He's 6-5 and came up as a 5-tool player with pretty high upside. He's 28, not turning 29 until next February. This is his 6th full season in the bigs, all played in Toronto. He's twice been an All-Star and was 5th in ROY voting in 2004.
  

• His contract only requires $5.9M this season (hence how the Sox could make the move work now), a reasonable $9.7M next year, then basically $12.5M per from 2011 to 2015 (tho the last year is a team option).
  

• He's a career .285 hitter, and that is a fairly accurate representation of what to expect, based on what he's done in 6 years so far. He'll be about a .285 hitter over the long haul, with some year-to-year variation up to .305 or down to .265.
  

• He'll hit anywhere between 15 and 25 HRs (probably more in the Cell), while adding another 40+ doubles each year (he's very consistently reached that mark). Depending on where he is in the order, he's a likely 80-90 RBI type.
  

• He'll steal between 15 and 30 bases, and do so at about a 75% clip (a real good rate).
  

• The knock on the guy - he's not a patient hitter, with an OBA only about 50 points over his average (you'd like to be about 80 points over) and he will strike out 100 times a year.
  

• Defense is always hard to gauge, but his 5-tool status, time in right field, and assist numbers all suggest he's got a pretty good arm. He's mainly played right, but that seems to be only because Vernon Wells was always there in center. When Wells was hurt, Rios played a lot of center (20 games in 07, 60 last year). Is he a capable defender in center? That seems to be the biggest question when trying to grasp what the Sox got. Because offensively, he's been remarkably consistent - what I listed above is what you can expect. Whether or not he can be a capable CF is something only time will tell. However, I have heard it stated that Rios is a natural centerfielder and the return to that spot should help him defensively. Hearing that, I'm beginning to see the wisdom of the move - Rios could be the franchise CF the Sox have long sought.
  

What does all this mean to me? I think it means the Sox picked up a real asset for the years moving forward. I think Rios has the average, power, and speed to be a real dynamic force in the Sox lineup. In recent years we've all bemoaned the low average, low mobility, home run or nothing nature of this team. But all of the sudden Kenny has totally changed the make-up and Rios fits perfectly right in.

The Sox now are looking at a core of relatively young hitters capable of hitting for a good average, flashing 20 HR power, and stealing 10 to 20+ bases. Look at what the Sox are going to be running out there for the next half decade or more:

Quentin (turns 27 at the end of August) - struggled with injuries this year that sapped his average, but still has 11 HRs in 200 ABs. Lately he's started to turn it on again, though the real hope is that by next year Carlos will be back to the .285, 35 HR, 115 RBI, .400 OBA, 10 SB beast he showed the ability to be last year. That 10+ steal speed can't be over-looked, but not even for the steals themselves. It's more that Carlos has shown he's not a base-clogging type slugger, and that can be a real advantage to a lineup's dynamic and consistency.

Beckham (turns 23 in mid-September) - let's not forget that he had only 2 hits (both singles) in his first 28 at-bats. Since then? Beckham has hit .339 w/ 6 HRs and 19 doubles in 177 ABs. Who do I see him resembling, production-wise? Chipper Jones - just with a bit fewer walks and homers. We're talking a consistent .300 average, 100 runs, and 100 RBI. And while he won't steal a ton of bases (4 so far this year, but been thrown out 4 times as well), Beckham definitely can move around the bases.

Ramirez (turns 28 in mid-September) - a lot of the fan and media excitement with Alexei has soured this year, but I'm not sure why. He's hitting a respectable .270 and on pace for both 17 HRs and 17 SB - those are good numbers from a middle infielder. Sure Alexei has made too many mistakes, especially mentally, in the field this year. But I see upside on both fronts, as Alexei can easily be a .290 to .300 hitter (after struggling to a .214 April, he's posted months of .281, .283, .298, and .300) with 25 HRs and 20 steals. Remember, after a rough start last year, he still hit .290 w/ 21 HRs and 13 steals on the season. Defensively, it's hard to be sure he'll figure it out, but Alexei certainly has all the tools, so I'm guessing he'll settle in to be a plus defender despite the occasional mental lapses.

Getz (turns 26 at the end of August) - he's been a bit up and down this year (hit .340 in April, then .200 in May, up a tick to .247 in June, then hot again with a .324 in July, and now settled in at .286 in August). But Getz is a rookie, so that is to be expected. Overall, he's around .270 and from what I've seen and heard, I think he can be a consistent .280-.290 hitter. Getz doesn't have a ton of power and isn't an OBA guy, but he does only have 43 Ks in 310 ABs (with the great majority coming when he struggled in May and June). Add in the that he's on pace for over 25 steals and only 3 or 4 times caught, and you start to see his value. His average, speed, and contact abilities make him a valuable piece to a dynamic offense.

Rios (turns 29 in mid-February) - as I mentioned above, this is a guy who will hit .285 with 20+ HRs, 40+ doubles, and 20+ steals. That makes him the 4th guy in your lineup who can drive in 90+ runs but still flash good speed on the bases. Throw Getz and whomever you've got leading off into the mix, and now the Sox have six different guys playing everyday who can go first-to-third or score from second on a single. Guys you can hit-and-run with or can feel confident sending with two outs and a guy capable of leading off the next inning at the dish.


That's my excitement in this move - that Rios fits in so well with what they already are building. Gone is the beer league softball approach, with the slow, aging sluggers. Gone are the failed prospects with holes in their swings and their sub .250 averages. Instead, there's a core of guys you can expect to hit for average and flash some speed - the two things I firmly believe a lineup needs to win consistently in the regular and post seasons - but still have the power needed to compete in the AL out of a home field like the Cell.

Sure there are other moves to be made down the road, but for now AJ and Paulie can be expected to be assets for another few seasons. Rios, as a righty, seems to preclude bringing back Dye, but Thome still seems to fit - they've got a DH spot and a need for a left-handed slugger for the heart of the order. And who knows - maybe they see Rios or Getz as a capable lead-off hitter next season, and thus Dye can return, with Rios playing center and Carlos in left.

To me that's the only question remaining in the lineup - how to fill the vastly under-rated but completely crucial leadoff spot next year. Is it Pods? Is he for real? Can he stay healthy and productive? Cause we've been burned by him before, and now he's only gotten older. Is it Rios or Getz? Neither is the prototypical leadoff guy, having neither much experience nor the pure speed or on-base abilities you'd expect. Is it someone from outside (Pierre, Figgins, Damon, etc)? With Peavy and Rios in the mix now and Thome and/or Dye possibly back, how much money do they really have left to add someone like that?

That is gonna be one of the critiques of this move - the Sox are paying way too much for what Rios gives you. But I disagree on two levels. First, the acquisition cost of Rios was nothing - they lost no prospects or pieces in getting him. That's significant and must be included when considering his salary. Second, you can't compare last year's off-season OF signings to what Rios could get on the open market. Ibanez, Bradley, and Abreu were all much older than Rios. Only Dunn is close in age, and he carried a limited appeal both because he's such a poor defender anywhere on the diamond and because his game is one-dimensional.

The fact is that Rios is entering his prime, has shown All-Star abilities (twice), and even in a "down" year, is still on pace to hit 20 HRs, score 75 R, drive in 90, and steal 25 bases. If that is this kid's floor and he really can play a solid CF, you don't think he's worth $12M per during his prime?


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