Can The Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

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So anytime the 2009 Sox want to really convince me of the kind of team they are, that'd be just great. I mean is this the team who stumbled along in April? Or the one that bottomed out in Toronto in mid-May? Or the team who roared back with 10 wins in 13 games right after that? Or maybe they're the team who followed that resurgence with a depressing 8 home losses in 9 days?

My hope? The rough start was a matter of finding the right lineup mix and getting the starting pitching on track, the brutal home stand a fluky blip, and this on-going string of 8 straight series wins (excluding that horrible home stand and the series split at Wrigley) is the real McCoy.

It could be the case. Sure, I'm a hopeless optimist when it comes to the ChiSox, but I really believe they might have the right mix going. Yes, they have some areas to improve and some things they need to do differently, but I think they're closer to another playoff appearance than they are another disappointing lost season.

Here's my current state of the team:

Scotty Pods has been a godsend. A bit lucky (on pace to have his best year ever, after being cut by a last place team) and a bit wise (he's always had the potential to be a great leadoff hitter, something few guys in all of baseball can say), this move could very easily be seen as the season saver.

It's why I keep harping on the importance of a good lead-off guy and why I'll go to the grave screaming that teams need to give the $200M deals to lead-off guys (who truly are irreplaceable, hard to come by, and make everyone better) and not middle of the lineup sluggers (who are easy to replace, easy to find, and don't seem to have a major impact on a team, either when they are added or subtracted).

Don't believe me? Then look at two of the more maligned classic leadoff hitters of our time - Pods and Juan Pierre - and see what happens when these guys are playing good baseball. The Dodgers lost freakin Manny and didn't miss a beat offensively, because Pierre came in and sparked the whole lineup. As we all know, it's been the exact same thing on the Southside, with Pods making it all go. Every single other player is better because of what he's doing at the top of the order.

Really glad to see Alexei back to hitting like he should. In May and June, he hit around .280 and drove in runs at a 90 RBI pace. That's impressive in a lineup that still isn't clicking and out of the #2 slot. However, I actually don't like Alexei in the #2 spot. He's not a grinder type and is too good of a talent to be buried trying to hit behind guys or bunt unless fully necessary.

Especially given the struggles in the back of the lineup, the Sox need him to be batting 6th or 7th. If you're into the righty-lefty thing, put AJ 6th and Alexei 7th, with Alexei moving up to #6 when AJ sits (instead of having your back-up catcher, Castro, be Paulie's protection). That's where this kid will thrive - he'll provide a bit of speed after the sluggers, but he'll also give you consistency in the back of the lineup and a run-producing bat to follow up the heart of the order.

Personally I'm turning 2B into a platoon, with Getz and Nix splitting time and handling the #2 slot. Both have shown decent flashes offensively and defensively, and both could be solid big leaguers. I think both the team and the players would prosper from a pure platoon and from asking these two to take over the #2 role.

With Pods playing as he is and the middle of the order hitting solidly, you just want your #2 to make productive outs. Bunt, hit behind guys, execute hit-and-runs, occasionally get a hit or drive in a run, and show some speed when you're on the base paths. Getz and Nix just might be able to do that.

But what I really like about that is that you're taking the pressure off of these guys. Instead of asking them to go out and be a plus hitter - a real challenge for any major leaguer - you're asking them just to be productive in their at-bats. Lower the bar for success. You're hitting .240? No problem, as long as you're getting down bunts, making contact, and working the pitcher.

Ozzie got a lot of credit in 2005 for putting his guys in a place to succeed and I really think he deserved it. But he's gotten away from that since and now, with all these youngsters, he needs to get back to it. Both Getz and Nix could really profit if you lowered the expectations and gave them simple assignments they were capable of - such as putting in productive at-bats out of the #2 slot.

And if they do fail, I'm going back to AJ in the #2 slot. As I posted before, he's not a great run producer and never has been. But his Minnesota background and approach to the game make him a capable #2 hitter. No, he's not ideal, but he can get it done. So if the two kids aren't cutting it, then throw AJ up there. Again, put the guy in a place to succeed - and in the #2 hole, a lot of AJ's flaws are hidden and a lot of his assets utilized.

In the heart of the order, the Sox have something going that I never would have expected. First off, they've been productive despite getting almost nothing out of CQ. Given the rock that he was last year, how they've played over Quentin's early struggles and current injury is impressive. But the other thing I wouldn't have guessed is that all three aging sluggers would be having good, but not great years. I figured one guy would get hot, one would be OK, and one would struggle.

So far, all three guys have gotten the job done, while none of them has really gone off. JD has the highest average, most home runs, and best slugging. But it's telling that he still isn't leading the team in RBI. That title goes to Paulie, who's driven in 49 to Dye's 48, despite fewer jacks and a slugging percentage below .500. Thome's only hitting .247, but he gets on at an impressive .402 clip, and his 13 HRs and 42 RBI have seemed to come when the Sox need it most.

In all, each of these guys has been productive, but each has some room to get hot and really carry the squad. Especially if the Sox get CQ back, the heart of the order could be the steady, dangerous, run-producing collection we've always hoped for out of these highly paid guys.

Of course, if Quentin does come back in good health and productivity, there's gonna be a bit of a log jam in the lineup. I know Kenny and Ozzie don't care, but it's gonna absolutely kill us to have Pods playing center every day. Sure you can finagle some starts for BA by giving Pods, Paulie, Thome, Dye, and CQ needed breaks, but you're still looking at about 50-60% of your games start in center by Pods.

I've watched the guy for a number of years and this year is by far the worst I've ever seen of Pods in the field - and I thought he was terrible before. He's hesitant, uncomfortable, has surprisingly iffy range, and rarely seems to make catches that aren't routine. After seeing how detrimental a terrible defensive center-fielder can be (Mackowiak or Griffey, anyone?) and comparing that to the advantage a great defender like Rowand or BA is, I just don't see how Kenny and Ozzie can think Pods in center is a legit way to win a title.

But what alternative do the Sox have? Well, if CQ proves healthy in the two weeks he's back before the deadline, you can deal Dye, leave Pods in left, and move CQ to right. But that's a very risky proposition - how confident can you be after even the best couple of weeks by CQ? Can you really deal a key heart of the order component when your alternatives are a guy with a major foot issue, an aging slugger with back issues, and a highly inconsistent head case coming off two bad seasons?

Instead, my guess is that Quentin gets a lot of days off, the others are rested here and there (Thome against lefties, Dye and Paulie to keep fresh), and BA (or god, forbid, Wise) remain fairly regular CFs.

Speaking of BA, I'm absolutely fine with him as a full-time CF on this squad. Sure, our back of the lineup is hurting, but with the right moves, it doesn't have to be. As I mentioned, I'd move the Getz/Nix platoon up to #2 and Alexei down, so instead of a dead 7-9, you've just got your 8-9 as holes. And as I'll detail in a minute, I don't think Beckham can be considered a hole any more. It's still early, but he's starting to look very legit.

With a productive Beckham and Alexei down in the lineup, BA can slide into the #9 slot, hit his .240-.260, get on base at a decent clip, show some speed and power, and most importantly, be an absolute beast in centerfield. Given Pods' weakness in left and Dye's declining range (tho he remains a strong fielder, just not covering a ton of ground), BA's defensive work is fully necessary. Especially given the premium we put on our pitching, we need our defense to be top notch. And that means BA has to get regular ABs, even if he's ugly at the plate, even if it means more rest for your sluggers than you'd prefer.

Finally, we come to Beckham, who might very well follow up the amazing emergence of CQ and Alexei with one of his own this season. Remember, this kid started off 0 for 13. Take that small adjustment blip away, and you realize that despite being only a year out of college, he's hitting .333 with a .485 slugging percentage in 66 ABs. And those numbers are only going up, as he's as hot as could be right now.

Sure, even in the best case he'll hit a wall at some point. But if Beckham can end the year where he is now - a .280 average, .360 OBA, and solid speed and pop - then the Sox will be in good shape, both for this year and the future.

The real question is can he handle himself defensively. That's been the one frustrating part about the Sox recent run - that it could have been even better had they just played good defense. Beckham and Alexei are making way too many mistakes over on the left side of the infield and those mistakes are putting pressure on everyone else and resulting in more errors and bad plays.

I'm looking to the top for blame here - it's on Ozzie to have these guys in the right mindset to play good defensive baseball. And that's what it is - a mindset. There needs to be a pride and obsession with defense, a team-wide commitment to impressive work in the field on every single play. Not just with the glove and throws, but in knowing where to be, where to go, how to handle situations.

Again we're back to the fundamentals - and again that's on Ozzie (and in a macro-perspective, Kenny). This team has the pieces. Pods is setting the table, the middle of the order is doing well enough to produce runs, and the back of the order is even coming around. As long as Pods isn't in center, the defensive set-up is filled with solid or plus defenders. Now it's on Ozzie to ensure they play up to their capabilities.

If the Sox do that - if they field well and execute the little things - then this team is fully capable of anything, even a title. But if they don't, they just aren't talented enough to overcome poor play for a whole season and into the playoffs.

Some final quick thoughts on our hitters. First, I'd probably be looking to upgrade the Josh Fields spot. Find me another Uribe or Blum on a non-contender, a veteran who can handle the glove and be reliable. Fields never really got a full shot and might still have some talent, but Beckham has clearly passed him by and this team needs to be at its best for this year. Fields doesn't bring anything, at least not compared to what a proven veteran utility guy could.

Wise actually has a role on this team as a pinch hitter/runner and defensive replacement. But he shouldn't be getting regular work in CF, especially not when CQ is back. He's solid enough in center, but BA is better, has hit better, and has more upside. Wise is a 5th OF and should be used only as such.


Now, to the pitching. Buehrle is Buehrle. This year he's been especially Buehrle, and I don't expect that to change much. But more promising is the turnaround we've seen out of Danks, Floyd, and Contreras. Danks started amazingly then really struggled, but since has righted the ship and looks to be the Johnny Danks of old. Floyd couldn't even say he struggled - he flat out sucked. But in his last 8 starts he's got a 1. something ERA and is proving that last year was no fluke.

Most impressive is definitely Contreras' rebound. He didn't even suck - he was about the worst pitcher I've seen in a while. He had flashes of good things, but it was clear that he just didn't have it together, mentally or physically. However, I hope Jose's lesson is learned by GMs everywhere - when a guy is struggling, it can help to get away from it and go back to working on the basics.

Contreras went down to AAA, away from the pressure, and immediately put it all together. He's always been on the edge of disaster even as he pitched his best - that's just the nature of his brilliance. So without it all together, he was a wreck. That time away let him get his confidence, his plan, and probably his angles and releases to where they needed to be.

The result is a Contreras as good as I've seen since his dominant 2nd half 2005 run. Coupled with Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd having front line stuff, the Sox become real scary.

Really, stop and think about that - the Sox have four different pitchers throwing at ace or near-ace levels.

If that keeps up, then this team will most certainly be in it. Even if they have another hiccup in the next few weeks, there's no reason to panic as long as that starting pitching is dealing. The division is winnable and the Sox have the talent to do it. As long as this starting pitching is throwing like this, have faith.

Having said that, the Sox still need significant contributions out of the rest of the staff to make this happen. Richard has been serviceable, which is fine out of a #5. But I think he's still got upside - I can see him getting hot for a stretch. But if not, if he goes the other way, it's nice to know we've got Colon in our back pocket. Oddly, I haven't heard much news about him since he got put on the DL around the 9th of June. He's got performance incentives, so no way he's allowing the Sox to hide him if he's healthy.

My hope is that Colon is getting back to full strength, will get some rehab work to get sharp again, and then be either a trade piece or nice insurance down the stretch. You can just never have enough pitching, and Colon was at least serviceable.

Finally, it's on to our pen. Up until a few weeks ago, they looked unreal. But since then they've really struggled. Oddly, it hasn't hurt the Sox too much. Like their defense, it looked really bad, but only kept them from being red hot instead of just hot. But also like their defense, if it doesn't get turned around, it'll be the fall of this team.

I have no worries about Jenks, except the token concern you have that everyone stays healthy. In fact, I've started to realize that Jenks is the Buehrle of relievers. Funny, given that he came up as this big, colorful, smoke-thrower. But now he's settled into a boring, veteran pitcher who quietly gets it done, minimizing any damage and coming through when it matters.

On that, why the hell are there even hints of discussions of getting rid of this guy. Like leadoff hitters, effective, steady relievers are impossible to find, yet crucial to success and also key to making everyone else better. Why in the lord's name would the Sox ever think of getting rid of a guy who makes his off-season home in Chicago and has been as steady of a closer as anyone in baseball?

Pay the damn man. Lock him up for a 3-5 year deal and make him a Chicago institution. Jenks has earned it - he is so damn steady. How many relievers in baseball have been as consistent as he has been since 2005? Rivera? Hoffman? KRod? Nathan? Papelbon? I just named the two greatest closers of all time and the top three closers in the game today. That is the company Jenks keeps.

So why on Earth would you get rid of him? At the very least you keep him for his final arbitration year. But given how he lives in Chicago and loves the organization and what it's done for him, how are you not fully committed to this guy until his arm falls off? Hello? Kenny, make it happen. Losing Jenks means we would have a big question mark at closer next year, which even if it was filled by Thornton or Linebrink, would then create a big question in the set-up roles. We're already gonna lose Dotel, so no reason to make it worse.

Plus, and this is where it ties back into this year - you never really can count on any sort of reliable set-up to your bullpen. So if you somehow have a guy in ANY role who's reliable in that role, KEEP HIM THERE FOREVER! So Jenks is a great closer - done, he's our closer forever.

For now, the hope is that Thornton and Linebrink can shake off these recent blips and be effective in the second half. Same with Dotel. All three can be lights out, all three can be a nightmare. Linebrink has a longer track record, Thornton the best stuff, and Dotel the lowest expectations (as the 7th inning situational type). But to really win, especially down the stretch and into the playoffs, we need all three, or at least two of them, reliably dealing.

One guy I continue to be pleasantly surprised about - Carrasco. At this point it's hard to say he's a fluke, as this is the second straight year he's gotten it done. Whether it's mopping up with a few innings of work or a key middle inning situation, DJ just gets it done. He has been absolutely invaluable and is the type of guy you need on any winning team - the randomly effective reliever.

While it's gotten absolutely no attention, the early work of phenom Aaron Poreda deserves mention. It's only 5 innings, but to give up no runs, only four hits, and a single walk - I'll take that all day. Throw in 6 Ks and this kid has clearly been impressive. Yes, Ozzie has protected him from tough situations, but that's how it should be. However, he needs to get more work. It won't be easy, as the rotation is chewing up innings and there are a lot of relief vets in front of him, but Poreda needs regular work to continue to develop.

If he can turn into a legit lefty option, that will give the Sox the flexibility to move Thornton into a pure set-up or even closer role in case Linebrink falters or Jenks gets hurt, or to take over for Dotel as the late-inning situational shut-down guy. Given how quickly bullpens can be shaken up, I'd love to see this kid be someone we can rely on (to say nothing of the good that portends for the future).


Up ahead we're in KC for four and then home for a quick three against Cleveland before things start to get rough. Hence, we need to continue taking series. Take three from KC and two at home against Cleveland - that'll put you in position to handle the run of Twins, Rays, Tigers, and Yanks, and Halos we've got for the next month (with only a three-game series against the Os at The Cell giving us any respite).

Got to keep on racking up the series wins and slowly, quietly getting back into things. I've got faith they can do it, but I'd like the Sox to finally reward that faith with a long enough stretch of convincingly strong play to get me squarely back believing in their post-season chances.

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Clutch or Not?

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Once again I've got to thank my brother Doug for a great idea for a post. Here is part of the email he sent me last week:

• A few weeks back on your blog, you sung the praises of AJ. Everyone seems to love AJ, and I think some of the points you made about him are correct. He does play heads-up baseball. However, I have noticed that AJ is not much of a clutch hitter. Despite hitting near the middle of the order (5, 6, or 7), his RBI totals are generally pretty lackluster. This year, that is especially true. I was at Tuesday night's game when he came up with the bases loaded and two outs and grounded weakly back to the pitcher. Today, he came up in the same situation and grounded out. So I looked at his stats.
  His batting average is .287. However, despite hitting in the middle of the order, he only has 12 RBI in 175 AB. Compare that to Josh Fields, who has 187 AB but has somehow managed to knock in 21 runs despite hitting 8th or 9th and hitting only .235.
  Further investigation revealed that AJ is hitting .182 with runners in scoring position. That is horrible. When your RISP average is 100 points lower than your overall average, that is called being un-clutch, and that is the epitome of what is wrong with the White Sox this year.

That got me thinking, as I've noticed that the Sox get their hits and walks every game, but it never turns into as many runs as it should. So far I've been harping on their lack of small ball, which is a significant factor. There have been repeated instances where either Ozzie has not tried to move a runner up or a Sox hitter was incapable of doing so, with the result being that a run wasn't manufactured or a base hit simply moved a runner over rather than bringing him in.

However, Doug does bring up another factor - that the core Sox hitters are not delivering when it matters. So I decided to pull all of the numbers and really see who of the Sox mainstays - Konerko, Dye, Thome, and AJ - has been clutch and who hasn't.


First, AJ. Doug's right - his Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) numbers aren't good. Since coming to the Sox in 2005, not once has his RISP average been better than his overall average. In fact, three of the last four seasons it's been about 20 points below his normal batting average, and this year it's a whopping 100 points off (a dreadful .205). That's a pretty significant and telling track record of "clutch" futility.

This doesn't actually change my valuation of AJ much. I don't expect much for run production out of my catcher anyway and he's still a tough at-bat, better offensively than most catchers, and great at handling the staff and bringing a bit of competitive edgy play.

However, this definitely bolsters my belief that AJ should be batting #2 in the lineup. It's not a run-producing slot, it's a "make contact, move the runner, and be a tough out" spot. All of those things AJ describe AJ's strengths. Most important, those are things that the rest of the lineup is incapable of.

While Alexei has hit well second in the lineup, he's being asked to do things that are beyond him while keeping him from doing the things he really thrives at. We've all watched as he struggled to bunt or move guys over. Conversely, Alexei has been unreal at driving in runners - as a rookie he hit .380 with RISP (compared to a .290 average) and this year he's hitting .281 with RISP (to his .252 average).

That tells me Alexei should be hitting 6th, giving legit protection behind the big banger trio of Thome, Dye, and Konerko. With CQ gone, AJ not a run producer, and no other Sox hitter looking like a consistent threat, Alexei needs to be moved to the six slot in a hurry, with AJ settling back into the #2 spot.


Now let's look at the boppers, starting with the worst "clutch" performer, Dye. My brother, Mom, and I all loved to rip on this guy in 2005, when he hit 31 HRs and drove in only 86 RBI from the #5 slot, and seemed to lead the league in solo shots when a game was out of reach. JD made us all eat a bit of crow by getting it done in the post-season, even winning the World Series MVP (tho with some of the least impressive offensive numbers in the history of the award).

Like AJ, Dye's RISP average has been between 15 and 30 points below his overall average in three of the last four seasons, and has been terrible this year - a paltry .220 (compared to his .274 average on the season). I've been wondering how JD has hit so well (he was up to .288 with 15 HRs and an OPS over .900 - the mark of a really good hitter - just a week ago), and yet has so few RBI (only 39). Well, a .220 batting average with RISP will do that.

I do like JD, I do think he's under-appreciated, but I think that one of the reasons for that lack of appreciation is that, outside of 2006, he's failed to come through when it matters most, and that has depressed his RBI total. Without the regular 100 RBI seasons on his resume, Dye is viewed as a second teir player. And know what - on some level they are right. He does more than most give him credit for, but for a guy making $10M+ in this market, hitting 30+ HRs in the middle of a solid lineup in a friendly park, JD is failing by not driving in 100 runs every year.

With CQ out, the Sox need JD to turn that around. They need him to be hitting .280+ with RISP, and getting a lot of his extra base hits in those circumstances. He doesn't have to drive in 120, but JD definitely needs to drive in 100. It's not a must for success, but without that type of production, the Sox have a much tougher road to hoe.

Once the Sox return to AL parks, I'd move JD out of the #3 or #4 hole. I think he's probably best in the #5 slot, without as much pressure to drive guys in, but still able to protect the more legit top of the order producers. And longterm, I'm not bringing JD back. Sure you take a risk that whomever you replace him with won't be as healthy, as reliable, and as quietly solid. But you also are giving yourself the upside of a guy who can really produce.

JD has had five seasons in Chicago, and has only really produced in one of them. He's never failed to at least be solid, but he hasn't been that big banger you'd like. I'd much rather see the Sox go with an Abreu, who brings a more dynamic game, or even a Dunn, who scores and drives in runs with a scary regularity, or someone like Mags used to be - great average, a tick less power, but much more consistent bat.

Heck, what the Sox really need to do is move Carlos to RF, find a great defensive CF (I still think BA is that guy, despite his mediocre bat, but if not, there are other options out there), and then use LF for a true leadoff guy (Juan Pierre, Pods if he can keep this up, or something similar). I think the Sox raise the bar impossibly high when they try to find a good defensive CF who can also lead off. Be more strategic and break that task into manageable parts.

Either way, I hope Dye finishes the year strong on another Sox playoff team, but I think the wise move is to let him move on and give yourself a higher ceiling in that corner OF and payroll slot.


Now we move on to Paulie, who at .294 is hitting the best of any of the Sox three sluggers this year. And that success has continued with RISP, where he's throwing up a commanding .375 average. Paulie has seen a real pullback in his power, as he's belted 15 doubles but only hit 8 HRs this year. Despite that and the handicap of hitting 5th or 6th, Paulie still leads the team with 41 RBI.

Can we expect that continue? Well, he probably won't hit .375 with RISP all season, but it's reasonable to think he'll keep his RISP average around his normal average. In 2005, Paulie was actually pretty poor with RISP, but made up for it by being a beast in 2006. In 2007 and 2008, as he struggled at the plate, he didn't struggle any more with RISP - his normal average and RISP one were about the same.

So I'd say Ozzie can confidently hit Paulie in the middle of the order and enjoy the results. I've said before I'm fine with the current lack of power, as long as he's hitting consistently. If Paulie hits .300 all year with 40 doubles and 25 HRs (his current pace) out of the #3 or #4 slot, the Sox will be in good shape. And moving forward, I think the Sox can feel solid keeping this type of hitter and player in the mix, assuming he doesn't return to 07-08 form.


And now, the best for last. I have to admit that I was real down on Thome last year. And I expected even less of him this year. But one thing I learned and keep trying to tell myself is that running a baseball team isn't always as simple as it seems from the comfort of my couch or PC. There is a lot going on underneath the surface that has a real impact on the game and often times fans gloss right over these crucial aspects.

Jim Thome is the perfect example. On the surface he seems like a guy who nowadays hits for a mediocre average, still has power and walks, and strikes out too much. You look at the production and think it's helpful, but not terribly crucial. You figure the low average, big Ks, and lack of speed offset a lot of the big homers and useful walks.

But what we don't always respect as fans is a base level of ability that isn't always obvious in the numbers. How often do we see one player batting well and one batting poorly, and wonder why the bad hitter is getting so much more playing time? Or why a struggling closer or reliever is allowed to keep their job, or iffy starter kept in the rotation?

It's because a player's numbers don't always tell the whole story. That guy who's batting well right now? Maybe he's doing it only against righties he can handle because his manager knows that's how best to use him. That guy who's hitting poorly? Maybe his mere presence in the lineup is forcing pitchers to work harder, throw more pitches, and reveal their best stuff sooner. That shaky reliever? He's shown himself capable of handling the late inning pressures, even if it isn't always pretty, whereas the other options could wilt under the intensity.

I bring all of this up because it's something most of us armchair managers and GMs fail at consistently, and Jim Thome is a perfect example. While I knew Thome was a solid producer, I also knew his game had flaws, and those flaws would become greater with each passing year. Big sluggers like that often fall of quickly, so I've been leery of Thome losing all ability to contribute overnight.

However, a look at Thome's RISP numbers since coming over to the Sox has put my mind at ease. .336, .313, .304, .293. That's 2006, 07, 08, and this year's RISP averages. You could argue that he's trending down, but I think that's missing the point. The guy is a consistent .300 hitter when it matters most - I'll take that all day long. And when you look at his averages with runners on base (.329, .322, .292, .319), you realize he might not really be trending down to harshly.

Instead, focus on the fact that Thome is not a guy who hits for a great average - he's probably hit about .270 during his time with the Sox, and never once above .290. Yet EVERY single season the guy is hitting 40 to 50 points higher with runners in scoring position and with runners on base than he is overall.

The simple fact is that even as a .240 hitter, Jim Thome is a better than average run producer. He has skills and talent that few hitters in the history of baseball do, and even as they erode, Thome remains capable of doing something that not many guys can - hit with consistency when it matters most.

I rip on Ozzie a lot, especially as the Sox have struggled, but I'll give him this - he's stuck by Thome consistently, and he's been absolutely right to do so. The guy should be hitting 3rd or4th in the lineup every night (if you want your best hitter #3, then I'd put him there, but if you want to break up the righties, I'd sneak him into #4 behind Paulie, in front of Dye). Jim Thome is clearly the best hitter the Sox have with RISP, and for that, we'll all have to respectfully suffer his high K total, his iffy batting average, even his frustrating refusal to work for cheap singles against the shift.

What to do with him next season is a tougher question, because Thome still could fall off at any point. But if he finishes the year like he's started it, I might try to see if I can squeeze one more season out of him. There can't be a big market for a guy like Thome, so one dimensional and clearly on the downside of his career. He seems like the type who'd offer a significant hometown discount, at least at this phase of his career. If he hits .250+ with good RISP numbers in the second half, and stays healthy, I think I try to keep Thome in a Sox uni one more year.

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Utter Frustration Mixed With a Hint of Optimism

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Two straight heartbreaking losses did more than serve notice that the Sox might be an also ran very soon. It highlighted why I have a very deep, underlying frustration with the organization that I don't see being relieved any time soon.

Tuesday's loss was a bit more emblematic of what I'm talking about - the Sox and Tigers played a fairly even game, with similar mistakes and successes. The only glaring difference - the Tigers executed in their small ball situations and the Sox did not. When an opportunity came to bunt, Tigers manager Jim Leyland took it every time, and his players nailed it every time (even once getting a bunt single out of the deal).

On the flipside, Ozzie has been sitting on his hands for years, thinking of new and interesting post-game rants to excite the media, but has done nothing to upgrade the fundamental skills of his ballclub, nor has he been at all committed to playing that type of game even when he has the chance.

Similarly, Kenny has been hugely successful at the absolute hardest part of a GM's job - assembling talent - but has failed miserably at the easiest part - ensuring that the entire organization, from the greenest prospects to the biggest superstars, can execute the fundamentals at the highest level.


The reason I'm so frustrated is that I don't see this changing. Kenny has been a strong GM - his track record is undeniable, both in looking at the particulars of the moves he makes and in assessing the success he's had. Because of that reason, he's not going anywhere. And honestly, I really don't want him to. I'd much rather hope that some day Kenny wakes up and realizes just how important all the little things in the game are, and decides to re-dedicate the entire organization to mastering the fundamentals.

Really, that's all it would take. If Kenny said it had to be so, within a couple of years it would be so. These players will do whatever it takes to succeed on the club - so if they know playing time and advancement and big paydays are only coming if you can bunt, hit behind runners, drive in guys from third, run the bases, hit the cut-off guy, etc etc, then that's what they'll be busting their hump on.

Even more so, so much of fundamentals is simply taking pride in it. Bunting is NOT hard. Tons of horrendous hitting NL pitchers lay down key bunts every day. If those guys can do it, then paid professional hitters can. But unless your coach and organization are constantly in your ear about it, most big leaguers aren't going to think or care about bunting. Conversely, if it's a constantly stressed necessary ability, then the players will both make it part of their mental focus and develop a pride in it, which is really all these skills require. Focus and pride.


But while I'm willing to wait on Kenny because of the clearly strong GM he is (some day here I'll do a long list of the talent he's brought in and what he's let go, and the plus-minus will be off the charts in his favor), I'm steadily losing such patience with Ozzie. Sure he pushed all the right buttons in 2005, but a lot of really, really bad managers have one good season (see Manuel, Jerry, 2000).

Since then Ozzie let an ultra-talented team completely implode on him in 2006, allowed a decently talented team to be one of the worst in baseball in 2007, and needed 163 games to win one of the worst divisions in baseball with a highly paid, extremely talented group last year. Now this year in another winnable division, he can't even keep yet another talented team above .500.

On top of that, Ozzie's clashed with a number of productive veteran players, failed to develop any of his own prospects into even decent big leaguers, and stuck by a number of lost causes for far too long. Making it all the worse, the team has often lacked any real fire or attitude on the field, has never hit up to its potential, and has failed repeatedly to play solid fundamental baseball on every level.

The fact is that I don't think Ozzie really brings that much to the table. It's clear from the team's execution that he isn't a great teacher of the game. And it's clear from watching other teams come into town and exploit our weaknesses while we wait around for 3-run homers that he's no great strategist. The above-mentioned flat teams and clubhouse clashes show that Ozzie's not even truly a "player's coach."

So what is Ozzie's value, besides enjoyable post-game antics and an admittedly refreshing honesty to his interviews? I'm not seeing a whole lot. And while people love to make excuses about how the manager can't hit, field, and pitch for the guys, I think it's asinine to believe anything but that a good manager makes a HUGE difference for an organization.


It's all too bad, because if Kenny had this organization focused on fundamentals for the last five years (i.e. when it became clear the softball team approach wouldn't work after 2004) and Ozzie was a plus manager, then I think the Sox could have been in a real dynasty era (at least relative to Chicago baseball). I think we could have made the playoffs in 2006, even made some noise there. I think we could have remained respectable in 2007 and come back in 2008 with another real threat for a title. And this year, we'd definitely be pacing the Central division.

The talent is there this year. The starting pitching hasn't been amazing, but it's been capable and getting better. The pen has been absurdly good. The fielding has been good enough. And the hitting has actually been better than it seems. The problem is that the hitting isn't getting it done when it matters - the Sox are the 2nd worst team in the entire AL in hitting with runners in scoring position, despite having a ton of good hitters, many of whom are having good seasons.

Some of that poor average w/ RISP is bad luck, but some of it is Walker for not preparing these guys to hit as they should be able to in various situations, and some of it is Ozzie for not doing more to put the hitters in the position to succeed by calling for and executing better in the small ball facets of the game. Because of the coaching failures, this team is starting to look like a lost cause.


But, before we get too Northsidey here, keep in mind that there's still plenty of hope this team can turn it around. This homestand, this series, and now CQ's extended stay on the DL don't really suggest such, but it's true - there's a lot of season left. The fact is that the pen is still nasty and the starting pitching might just be coming around. Floyd and Danks are starting to consistently resemble the guys they were last year, Buehrle is Buehrle, and both Richard and Contreras have shown signs of having some dominant stuff.

That sort of pitching alone is easily enough to get a team rolling, to reel off 10 of 12 and be right back in it. And don't think that's a pipe dream - plenty of clubs go through bad stretches early and then turn it around later. Plenty of teams yo-yo up and down before settling into their groove and contending. The Sox have the pieces, including the most difficult to find ones - starting and relief pitching - it's just a matter of it all coming together.

And if you assume that the bad luck of their poor RISP numbers will be offset by some future good luck to bring it in line with their overall hitting numbers, you start to realize why all this throw in the towel stuff is WAY too premature. I know we're Chicago fans who expect the worst, but we're not Cubs fans. We can be optimistic without being naive, and we can weather tough times without claiming that the sky is falling.

Fueling this white flag fury is the media, who never has bought into the Sox. They didn't think they were much last year, and despite being a defending division champ, were given no chance to contend this year. My hope - the clubhouse starts to read all these clippings about giving up and uses it as motivation. Few things in professional sports these days are more potent than a genuine "no one believes in us" team mentality. Hopefully the Sox can grab that, make it an "us against the world" situation, and charge back into contention.


But even if we do make a run, get back into it, even win the division (all things I still believe are very possible), I'm still gonna feel a bit cheated, knowing that if the Sox would just take the absolute easiest step toward having a regularly successful organization - stressing fundamentals above all else - that whatever success they've had could be even greater, happening even more often, and with far fewer doubts and frustrations along the way.

Man it's exhausting being a diehard.
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Notes and Thoughts

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I said coming out of Monday's game that picking up that first game of a series is huge. Little did I know it'd be so that we weren't swept by the last place As. Oh well, Detroit lost three straight to Beantown so the only thing lost was a little bit of opportunity to gain ground. But we'll have plenty of that next week. And don't worry about the Twins - they can't pitch and can't win away from the Dome. Until that changes, they aren't legit contenders. They're thorns in our side, but not major threats. Yet.

For now, some notes and thoughts on the squad:

-What will it take for AJ to get his due? He's certainly well known around baseball, but not for the great catcher he is. Sure other catchers have a better arm or put up better numbers, but how many bring the entire package AJ does, and do so 130-140 games every year (a huge number for a catcher)? He's streaky at the plate, but he's still a positive in the lineup, which most catchers aren't. His arm isn't great, but a lot of the blame for the steals against him seem to fall on the pitchers. I think AJ's handling of the staff is outstanding, with season after season of great numbers out of less than overwhelming arms in a total hitter's ballpark.

And of course, AJ is the epitome of the intangible, being as smart, hard edged, and competitive as they come. He literally wins at least a game a year on some play that only AJ would think to make. Last year it was the baserunner interference call that won a game against TB. And given how things played out, that one win meant a hell of a lot.

-Speaking of getting their due, how about Jermaine Dye? When Paulie, Thome, Crede, and Swish all disappeared last season, it was Dye who remained productive and gave CQ the protection he needed to put up MVP numbers. Sure, 2006 was the only year he put up noteworthy single-season numbers (44 HRs, 120 RBI), but Dye deserves credit for the fact that in four years with the Sox, only once has he failed to hit .274, jack 31 HRs, or drive in 86 runs (all numbers he's looking up to equally again this year). Equally important, only once has he failed to play 145 games. And in that one "fail" year (2007) he still played 138 games, hit 28 HRs, and drove in 78.

I road JD pretty hard in 2005 about not being clutch, but he made me eat my words by winning the World Series MVP (not the most impressive MVP performance, but a crucial and admirable one all the same). Since then he's just continued to show up every year and produce, while many around him failed to do so. Once again this season JD has stepped up, covering up for Thome's bad start, Konerko's lack of power, and CQ's injury issues.

-On Thome's bad start and Konerko's lack of power - I gotta say I actually like the way both of these guys are looking. I'm glad Konerko's not trying to do too much and is taking his singles. The Sox need a consistent .300 hitter in their lineup, and early in his career, Konerko looked like that guy. He's since become more of a .280-40 guy than a .300-25 hitter, but in recent years he wasn't really able to do either. I'm glad to see Paulie getting back to basics and taking his hits. The power will come - not that his 7 HRs and 13 doubles are anything to scoff at. But if he continues with this approach, the real power will come, possibly to the tune of Paulie's best year since 2006.

Ditto for Thome - I really thought that he'd taken another big step back this year after the start he had. Last season he seemed to drop from the .280 hitter he had been to a .240 type. This year it looked like he was down to a .220 type. But he's warmed up of late and has his average back over .250-.260. Given the way Thome can drive the ball and his great eye, if he can keep hitting around .260 or so, he'll be the legitimate left-handed presence in the heart of the order we need.

-As you could have guessed by the topics of many of my previous posts, the success that Pods and Alexei are having at the top of the order couldn't make me happier. Pods is putting up good at-bat after good at-bat, looking like he did in 2005 and 2006 (tho not on the base paths, where he's only got 5 steals and has made a ton of outs).

And Alexei is back to the hitting fool he was last year, except he now seems to really be relishing his roll as a #2 hitter. I've seen him try to bunt on numerous occasions, even having success with some of them. I know it's not easy for him, but I really respect and appreciate that Alexei is putting in a good faith effort to do it. He's got all the skills to be a tremendous #2 hitter if he can just get his bunting to respectable levels. In the meantime, I'll take The Missile warming up with the weather, just like he did last year.

-Very curious to see what the BA/Wise platoon will look like in center. BA continues to hit righties with authority (.313 average in 67 at-bats), while he struggles with lefties (only 4 hits in 28 at-bats). So it doesn't seem to make sense to use him in a traditional platoon set-up. Given his amazing defense in center and upside, you'd think Ozzie would keep BA as his everyday guy.

However, Wise was 5-for-11 before getting hurt and does bring a nice spark to the club. My hope is that Ozzie respects that Wise is better served as an Ozuna type, subbing in here and there, providing some hard work and hustle, but not getting over-exposed. He can spell Pods, BA, and Dye (as he's capable of playing all three OF spots) to get the at-bats he needs.

Right now though, Ozzie is continuing to show his freakin annoying favortism, as Wise started three of four against the As, including against a lefty yesterday. Again, given BA's production against righties, there's no justification for this. Wise is a whopping 1-for-12 with 4 Ks since coming back, and this time Ozzie can't hide behind the excuse that he's feeling the pressure of leading off or being the man in center. Unlike the start of the year, no one cares about Wise right now. I mean how many of you even realized he was playing every day again?

Nope, Wise is just not a good player, and that's evident by his being 31 and never having played regularly in the bigs. He's got some talent - we've seen him come up with some big hits and good plays. But Wise is NOT an everyday major leaguer. I railed about this last year, when Griff was getting everyday at-bats as BA rotted on the bench, despite Griff being terrible in center and hitting just as poorly as BA ever did.

So Ozzie, GET OVER YOUR DAMN FAVORTISMS! Wise is not an everyday CF - he's a twice a week guy who gives you speed and OF flexibility off the bench. BA might not be an everyday CF is an offensive sense, but he's been respectable enough this year AND remains one of the better defensive centerfielders out there. Give him the bulk of the PT already!

-It didn't draw much attention, but the acquisition of Ramon Castro from the Mets might be a small, but crucial one. There's a reason Corky Miller has never played regularly in the bigs, and while he was serviceable enough, Ramon Castro is a solid career back-up backstop. He's got a bit of power, gets on base decently, and from what little I've learned, handles a staff and throws the ball pretty well. He'll only hit around .230-.240, but given the pop, walks, and limited need for offense out of your backup catcher, that should be just fine.

Rember that in 2005 Widger had some big games and did a great job spelling AJ throughout the season. To win a championship, you really need contributions from everyone, so Castro could end up playing a meaningful role when all is said and done.

-Not sure what we've got in Getz and Fields, but my gut says Getz will stick and Fields will be gone. It'd be easy to see how Orlando Hudson is tearing it up for the Dodgers and regret not getting him, but I respect the Sox for trying to see if Getz could get it done. I do think he's a solid defender and plays the game right, and that batting in the back of the lineup, he'll become a productive hitter. Everyone has long raved about him having a swing that would hold up in the bigs - for whatever reason, I think that's true.

However, I've got no faith in Fields. After all that post-season work, after the solid spring, after a great start, he's back to the same guy he's always been - too many Ks, not enough hits. But now he doesn't even have the power stroke he showed in 2007, when he hit 23 in 100 games. At first I appreciated this, thinking Fields was trying to just get his hits and let the power come later. But now I'm feeling like he just doesn't have it.

So I think the Sox made the right move bringing up Beckham and giving him the everyday 3B job. I hope they just stick with it, work through the growing pains, and let him get comfortable up here. He clearly is an uber-talent, so once the hype wears off and he can just play baseball, I think he'll be fine.

If not, hopefully Kenny can overturn some stone and find us a 3B in the trade market, never an easy task. The trade engines haven't really heated up yet (outside of Kenny's office), so there isn't much for talks just yet about who might be available. But let's hope that some sort of impact 3B is out there (maybe a great defender with a bit of speed - not blazing, but also not a base clogger) and that we can get him, if Beckham does go the way of nearly every other Sox prospect of recent vintage (hard to call CQ and Alexei Sox's prospects, as neither spent any time playing for any Sox farm clubs).

-I love seeing Richard build on the successes he had last year. In his first four starts he gave up a total of 7 ER. Sure he was off against the As, but even the best pitchers have those days. Unless he tanks pretty hard in his next two times out, I can't imagine Ozzie is going to be able to take him out of the rotation, no matter how well Contreras is throwing in AAA.

That brings up a tough decision for Ozzie - what to do after Conteras' start on June 8th? Do you send Jose to the pen and hope he can be a serviceable long guy (a spot that's now opened up w/ Broadway's trade to the Mets) until the inevitable injury strikes (I'm looking your way, Colon).

That'd be my play - let Contreras continue to work himself back into effectiveness, let him build his confidence, and most importantly, let the Sox see that he actually can be trusted, all from the relatively low risk role of the long man. Then when Colon goes down, Richards hits a wall, or something else unfortunate happens, we just slide Jose right into the mix and don't miss a beat.

-Glad to see Danks and Floyd re-discover their stuff after a bit of a rough patch for both. My confidence has never wavered on these guys, and it won't even if they have another small hiccup here or there. It's one of the reasons I was glad to see Javy go - because clearly he didn't have the warrior mentality. It was made especially obvious by the presence of Buehrle, but also because of Floyd and Danks, both of whom were far less accomplished than Javy, yet stepped up to the pressure about a thousand times better last year.

Scary thought to realize that Danks, Floyd, and Richard could make up a cheap and highly effective trio for years to come. Did I mention that Buehrle is only 30 and has the type of stuff that could be just as good for another decade plus? I want nothing more for this team over the next five years than those four guys to put up consistently solid season after season. If that happens, the Sox will be contending year in, and year out.

-I'll be scared all season that any of these guys gets hurt or loses their effectiveness, but for now, the Jenks-Linebrink-Thornton-Dotel-Carrasco pen is as good as they come. You'd like to see either Whisler or Gobble show themselves capable of either the 2nd lefty or long guy role, but if not, those aren't terribly difficult spots to fill through a mid-season deal.


I'd like to the Sox take it to the Tribe this weekend - Cleveland is a bad road team with the worst pitching staff in the AL. If that can't heat up the Sox bats, nothing can. Get a little momentum back, hope the Angels continue the Tigers slide, and then be ready to retake first place next week.

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Memories Of The Way We Were

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Some updates on guys who've left the Sox in the past year or so (as well as on one legend and one "guy that go away"):

• Nick Swisher has cooled after a fast start (sound familiar), his average around .244. But he continues to hit the occasional homer and get on base. Will he ever put it all together? Who knows, but I think it's clear that Swish is a productive big leaguer who's multiple positions and great attitude make him an asset, as of course does his 30 HR power and 100-walk ability. But these days, maybe not an asset worth the multi-millions he was getting paid. Still, I think the Sox might miss the energy and spark Swish brought, and wish that Ozzie realized part of his role as manager was to keep even his most temperamental players focused in the right direction. I think it was bad form for Ozzie to throw Swish under the bus when he pouted after a late season demotion - that's Ozzie's job to keep his guys in the right mindset, through thick and thin. It only hurts the Sox when he can't keep these types of players in the fold.
  

• Jerry Owens picked up with the Mariners and is tearing it up for AAA Tacoma, hitting .316, getting on base at a .400 clip, and stealing bases left and right. Not surprising - the kid is talented. But can he thrive in the bigs? Seattle might be a perfect spot for him, as they have openings and JO won't be under much pressure. A chance to learn from Ichiro also won't hurt.
  

• The OC has really struggled in Oakland, hitting a meager .229 with a .278 OBA and .291 SLG. Cabrera never was a pure stat guy, but those numbers are brutal. I'm sure his defense is solid, but he's definitely one of the reasons the As offense is so atrocious. But my guess is that he'll be traded to a contender mid-season and be a real valuable pickup.
  

• Mike MacDougal apparently got picked up by the Nats and now is in their pen. His first two outings - 1.0 IP, 2 hits, a walk, and 1 K. I'll keep an eye on him, but I don't think he'll ever put it back together again. So weird - the guy was a solid closer for a few seasons, then fought his way back from a major injury, was strong for a couple more years for the Sox and Royals, and then just totally lost it. How does that happen?
  

• Javy Vazquez continues to be Javy Vazquez, even in a new league. A sparkling 3.58 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 86 Ks in 70 IP. Pretty great stuff, right? Yeah, he's 4-4. The guy just isn't a winner. Some of it is his approach, some of it is bad luck, some of it is inconsistency. But you can't deny he just doesn't get it done in the one category that matters most.
  

• Nick Masset, traded for Grif Jr. last summer, has found a home in the Cincy pen. He was fairly strong in limited work last year, but this year has been lights out, 1.00 ERA and .78 WHIP in 18 IP. Could he ever have done this for the Sox? Who knows. The Sox would argue they gave him tons of chances, but I disagree. Burying a guy in that garbage long relief, spot duty role is not a chance. You need regular work - as either a starter or a reliever - to show what you can do. That spot/long role should be reserved for guys with no upside, such as middling prospects or journeymen vets. It shouldn't be where you send capable prospects to prove themselves. Cincy has given him a chance and so far he looks pretty damn good. Now I can't be too upset with the Sox, because as much as I hated Grif Jr., they did win the division with him, and who knows if they would have otherwise. But I hope the Sox learn their lesson and quit ruining their prospects in that long/spot role.
  

• Joe Crede started horribly for the Twins, but had a great month-long stretch beginning in late April, where he batted .275 with 8 HRs and a slugging percentage up near .700. However lately he's been missing games with a bruised hand and a foul ball off his knee. Is Crede starting to find his mojo after a bunch of time off and a move to a new team, or is he always gonna be inconsistent and injury-prone? Very curious to see.
  

• Juan Uribe is on a bit of a hot streak and has his average up to .313 in 83 ABs. He's played mostly 3B, but has 10 games in the middle infield as well. Given the struggles of Lillibridge, the recent demotion to AAA of Betemit, and the inconsistent play of both Getz and Fields, it makes you wonder if the Sox couldn't have used Uribe's great defensive glove and occasional hot spurts this season. No question Juan was a HUGE part of that division title last year - his respectable offensive production and great D at third when Crede went down kept us in the hunt.
  

• Boone Logan has looked solid but unspectacular for the Braves' AAA affiliate. He should get called up at some point, but it's not clear he'll ever live up to the promise he showed in coming out of nowhere and dominating Spring Training in 2006.
  

• Horacio Ramirez is back on KC, where the Sox first found him, and continues to suck, just like he did with the Sox. At one point this kid looked like another in a long line of strong young Braves starters, but now it's clear he lost whatever he once had.
  

• Chris Young, the CF on Arizona who was the lone Sox trade piece to ever make Kenny Williams look bad, is hitting .172. After a rookie year in which he hit 32 jacks and stole 27 bases, he was looking like the one that got away (even if we did get a highly valuable and productive Vazquez in return, one valuable enough to net us a highly touted catching prospect). But CYoung saw his HR and SB total go down last year, while his K numbers went up. This year it's gotten even worse. Can he be salvaged? Sure, Young's still only 25. But when this is the "best" prospect Kenny has ever given up in his years of wheeling and dealing prospects for vets, it's high time everyone in baseball respects that Kenny knows his stuff.
  

• Finally, apparently the Sox have made overtures to Big Frank about retiring with the team. Not sure if this would mean a September spot on the roster or just a ceremonial re-signing before an immediate retirement ceremony. Word is that Frank is waiting until the All Star Break or so until he officially gives up on coming back and retires. I do hope that he does so with the Sox - he really is one of the few true baseball legends the Sox have ever had. His place in history is tough to gauge, as he'll get knocked for being a DH and his absurd early career won't be remembered like it should. But few guys ever hit as well as Big Frank did, and if he actually was one of the few clean players of this era, he deserves all the more appreciation for it. Personally, I can't wait until Frank Thomas night, when they retire #35. I've never seen one of a player I followed for his entire career have their jersey retired - it'll be cool to finally experience that.