Sox Opening Day Roster - Hitters Analysis

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It looks like the Sox have just about rounded out their Opening Day Roster, so I figured this would be a good time to break it all down, starting with the hitters.

LINEUP

#1 Wise (CF)

I LOVE platoons. I think they are woefully under used in the bigs. At this level, there are a lot of players who can hit fairly well when facing only righties or lefties. I think every team should use one or two platoons, as a way to turn a pair of mediocre players (and low salaries) into one really productive starting spot (while providing a nice bench option at the same time).

So, I'm happy to hear that CF will be a platoon situation. However, I've got a lot of issues with how they're talking about handling it. And the first issue is that I'm very leery of Wise. Now I was a big backer last year, believing he deserved a shot in the lineup after tearing up AAA for a few months - why not ride the hot hand? Eventually the Sox did just that, and got some solid returns. But Wise came back to Earth down the stretch and was he exposed for what he really is - a player with some skills and with some holes.

I think Wise is just very streaky. He was hot to start 2008, cooled off, then got hot again in the playoffs. He was hot to start Spring Training, cooled off, and got hot again recently. I just don't like that, especially out of a journeyman OF. As I mentioned in my leadoff post, I think your team goes with your leadoff hitter. So if Wise is hot-and-cold, so will the Sox offense. And that's not how you win.

Also, I think over the long haul Wise is gonna be a .250 hitter with a low OBA and solid but not amazing speed. At best, he's hitting .275 with a .320 OBA. Unless you're an accomplished leadoff hitter with 50+ SB speed, those numbers aren't gonna cut it.

To me, Wise is a 4th OF. You ride him when he's hot and allow his energy and effort to spark you here or there. You use his ability to play all three OF positons well enough and his speed as a good bench guy. Aside the good OF defensive, I've just described Ozuna, who was a tremendous asset to the Sox for a number of years. But Guillen always seemed to respect that Ozuna had limited usefulness and that they couldn't ask him to be more than a sub. So why is Wise different? As the lefty in the platoon, he'll get the lion share of the starts. And I'm seeing that being a disaster for the Sox, one they struggle all season to overcome.

Ideally, I would have liked to see Owens be the lefty half of the CF platoon, and I would have liked them to pair that with a 2B platoon of Getz and Lillibridge. In that way, your leadoff hitter would have been a guy with 50+ SB ability who can draw walks and get on base, as both Lillibridge and Owens have shown in the minors. Yes, neither has done it in the bigs yet, but neither has been given much of a shot. In a platoon system, I think they would have provided the Sox with some solid leadoff work. It wouldn't have been perfect, but I think it would have been enough.

Hopefully Wise can show some consistency, Ozzie uses Lillibridge to leadoff when Wise sits, and Owens remains with the organization in case Wise falters. Owens has his faults, but his upside as a true leadoff hitter remains, and I think if the Sox would just commit to the kid, he'd grow into a tremendous asset.

#2 Pierzynski (C)

It's not certain who will hit #2, but I don't get why Pierzynski isn't a shoe-in for the spot. He's no great shakes, but he is a solid veteran bat who makes consistent contact and does a lot of little things to help his club (thank you Twins up-bringing). That's one of the biggest needs of a #2 - to do whatever is necessary to move along the leadoff guy. AJ showed he was capable last year and let's be honest, the Sox don't have a lot of other options.

They want to keep the pressure of Getz, and rightfully so. Let him be the #2 next year, once he's gotten some confidence. They want Alexei to just worry about hitting, not moving guys along, and again - rightfully so. He could be a beast - no reason to stunt his development asking him to play a role. But AJs already hitting like a #2 guy, so why not put him there?

The only argument again AJ in the #2 slot I can respect is that it puts three lefties in a row - Getz is the #9, following by Wise and then AJ. That'd be followed by a 3-8 that features only one lefty - Thome.

Ideally - we start the year with AJ up here, giving you his standard decent average and respectable at-bats, and then hope Getz earns his way up to the #2 slot so AJ can slide back around #7 to break up the run of righties.

#3 Quentin (LF)

When you combine CQ's performance at the plate (specifically, the good average and high OBA), his strong pedigree (he was a hugely touted prospect with the DBacks), and the fact that he did it start to finish last year (no slumps, league never caught up to him), you start to get some confidence that 2008 was no fluke. I don't foresee any great fall-off, unless the wrist isn't healed. That wrist is a major concern - it doesn't take much to screw up a swing and totally ruin a guy (see Paulie's finger/hand issues last year). But if he's truly all healed up - look out.

Not to say he'll be an MVP candidate again this year, but I think, if healthy, you can count on a solid average, 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI. But more important, he's a tough at-bat every time, taking HBPs, drawing walks, and making pitchers work. He also has a bit of speed on the base paths, which keeps them from getting clogged. I'm hoping that he continues to run a bit - it adds such a dynamic element to your lineup when your middle of the order guys put pressure on the pitcher that way.

The goal is to pick up where he left off last season - as probably the Sox best #3 option since Frank's heyday.

#4 Dye (RF), #5 Thome (DH), #6 Konerko (1B)

It's not clear how these three will be slotted in, but you'd imagine they'd like to keep the lefty Thome somewhere between righties Quentin, Dye, and Konerko. Otherwise, as in years past, I think Ozzie will just go with the hot hand. All three guys are basically the same - they'll hit between .260 and .290, with between 25 and 35 HRs, and between 85 and 105 RBI.

The upside is that these guys all can still mash. Thome is definitely getting on in years, but he's still a 35 HR threat who's an OBA machine (and he's playing for a new deal). Dye has been quietly consistent in all his years with the Sox (and he's also playing for a new deal). Konerko is coming off another bad season, but he's not as old as everyone thinks (he just turned 33 a few weeks ago) and showed some signs in the second half. Remember too, he bottomed out bad in 2003 before responding with great years in 04-06. If anyone can bounce back, Paulie can.

The downside is that these guys can be streaky. Even in his best years, Paulie started out real slow. Dye has never really put it all together and carried the club for any great stretch (even his World Series MVP was a bit under-whelming). Thome has a lot of empty at-bats and could lose his bat speed any day. Plus they are all one-dimensional - they're looking to hit a bomb or get on, and once they're on, they need others to do a lot to bring them in.

There's no question they clog the bases and worse yet, their presence always seems to make Guillen get away from his professed preferred small ball style for a slug-and-chug approach that is irritatingly inconsistent. When these guys are hitting, you can survive or even thrive that way. But when they go cold, the offense struggles - and in baseball all-or-nothing sluggers regularly go cold.

The hope - that the Sox have enough dynamic elements around them that Ozzie doesn't fall into his dreaded wait-for-the-long ball managerial approach.

#7 Ramirez (SS)

The sky is definitely the limit on this kid. Like Quentin, he's got a heck of a pedigree and didn't slowed down much through last season. His off-month in September followed four straight strong months after taking over the starting 2B job. Now firmly entrenched at short and as part of the Sox future, Alexei could continue to develop his power and open up his speed to make him a truly dynamic player.

As with any young player, you're concerned if he can repeat his performance. But being able to hit at the back of the order could allow Ramirez to really thrive w/o any pressure or specific demands. While the expectations are high for the Cuban Missile, the four guys hitting in front of him are all being counted on more to carry the load.

Besides continuing to develop into an all-around strong hitter at the plate (he lead the Cuban leagues in HRs his last year there), I'd like to see Alexei develop into a real stolen base threat. He's got the speed to do it, he just needs to learn the right approach. I don't need 30+ steals, but if he can get me 15-20, it'd really help the offense be more well-balanced.

#8 Fields (3B)

Fields had a real wake-up call last year. After performing solidly in his call-up in 2007, he was pushed back to the minors because the Sox couldn't move Crede. Then Fields got hurt and struggled so badly at the plate and in the field that Uribe was made the everyday guy when Crede again went down.

But that might have been best, as Fields has worked like crazy this off-season to improve his fielding and his approach at the plate. Because while his 23 HRs in 100 games in 2007 (35 HR pace) was impressive, the guy only batted .244 w/ a .308 OBA.

So I'd like to see Fields rewarded for all this off-season work and better mindset. The talent is there - he's a good athlete who can slug and not clog the bases. But he's got to mature in his approach at the plate and in his handling of his fielding duties now that he's been handed the everyday hot corner spot.

#9 Getz (2B)

Everyone seems pretty high on this kid, and I am too. Supposedly he's got the kind of swing that will hold up over the course of a big league season. So far, that's something that home grown Sox prospects have failed miserably at for years - even the biggest successes, like Rowand, Crede, and Chris Young, all have very inconsistent swings that lead to streaky play and bad averages. Guys like Fields, Owens, and Anderson have all struggled to emerge because they couldn't hit with any consistency.

So if there is something to Getz' swing that will allow him to hit around .290 without huge fluctuations while providing a little bit of speed, good 2B play, and some grit to the lineup, then he'll be a real asset.

DEFENSE

Catcher - AJ

AJ got run on like crazy last year, but it was only partially his fault. The guy doesn't have a great arm, but Sox pitchers were also brutal at holding runners. Supposedly he's been working to improve all off-season and during Spring Training, which we hope also means the Sox coaching staff have been working with the pitchers.

All things considered tho, I like AJ's defense as to how he handles the staff. Since he's arrived in Chicago, the Sox pitching has been outstanding, especially given the band box we play in. And defensively, that's the biggest impact a catcher can make.

1B - Konerko

Paulie is underrated defensively, mainly because he's so freakin slow. But 1B is rarely about fielding grounders and more about fielding throws that skip across the ground. And in that regard, Paulie is as good as almost any in baseball. Although, he actually was pretty poor with it last year, but I think that was all wrapped up with his hand issues and batting problems. I expect he'll bounce back this year and remain an asset in how he turns a lot of errant throws into outs for his infielders.

2B - Getz

Supposedly he's a fairly solid defender, but until you watch a guy play everyday for a few months, it's really hard to judge. Defensive reputations are generally all over the map, differing from one scout or expert to another. So I'll reserve judgment for now, but hold out hope that he's solid, as I've heard from a number of different sources that he'll be a plus defender.

3B - Fields

Everyone talks about how much we'll miss Crede's defense. Yeah, sure - the guy was Gold Glove caliber over there (in fact, due to the crock of his never having been awarded one, Crede has become the poster child for the term "Gold Glove Caliber"). But he only started 143 of the Sox 334 games in 07 and 08. So we've gotten pretty used to not having him there already.

Fields is clearly an athlete with a great arm - you don't QB at Ok St otherwise. But whether he can get the job done comes down to how much all that off-season work pays off. Again, I'll need to see him myself for a while to see - this is definitely something I'm gonna weigh back in on throughout the year.

SS - Ramirez

Again, hard to say what we're gonna get here. He looked great at 2B... at least when he was paying attention. He had a few too many mental errors to be considered great, which is unfortunate because he did things that few other 2Bs can. His arm is unequaled, his range and athleticism are great, and his senses are solid. Back at his natural SS spot, if Alexei can avoid the mental lapses, he could be outstanding.

In all, I'd say the Sox infield defense could be really good, or it could be mediocre. The team values defense, so I'd imagine it'll at least be slightly above average. But for them to have success, the infield defense needs to be a real plus so that the pitching can hold up.

LF - Quentin

Quentin looked a little iffy at times out in left, but he always seemed to get the job done. He's certainly not a great defender, but he'll be fine as a left fielder. The bigger question is whether he'll also be fine when he makes the move over to right next year when Dye leaves. For now, CQ will be a bit of an asset in left with that arm and solid athleticism.

CF - Wise

I'm curious about Wise as an everyday CF. He's got solid skills - covers ground, good arm, nice angles. But he also made a lot of dumb mistakes in the OF last year, and hasn't really impressed at any of the three spots. Maybe playing nearly every day will help Wise to utilize those skills and make himself a plus defender. CF defense is hugely important, and the Sox have done well when they've got a good defender there. Let's see if Wise can handle it.

RF - Dye

Dye is tremendously underrated as a RF, probably because he's so quiet and probably because he looks so goofy with those long strides. It never looks like he's moving fast out there - in fact, it looks like he's struggling to move at all. But he gets to a lot of balls, makes a lot of really good plays, and has a great arm (also quietly underrated). It'll be hard to tell if he does lose a step cause he's so slow looking already, but if Dye can keep his play to what it was previously, he'll be an asset.

BENCH

Miller (C)

I reallty don't know thing one about this guy that I haven't just discovered looking over his stats. He's got a bit of power and will draw some walks, but really can't hit, so I'm guessing he's fairly strong defensively (I did hear he's got a nice arm). Given the lion's share of catching that AJ does, if Corky can hit some bombs and walk a bit while handling the staff and keeping runners honest, then he'll be fine.

Betemit (1B, 3B)

In four years of part-time duty for three different teams, Betemit has been all over the map. He hit .305 in 246 ABs for the Braves in 2005, but hasn't hit over .265 since. Betemit jacked 32 HRs in 613 ABs in 06-07 (despite playing for three different teams), but then hit only 6 in 189 ABs for the Yanks last year. He had 38 walks in 240 ABs in 2007, but then only 6 in 189 last year.

So who knows what you're getting here. My guess is that Betemit will profit from playing in the Cell and from the way Ozzie regularly uses his bench players. He'll play some 3B to protect Fields and some 1B to rest up Paulie and Thome (when Paulie slips over to DH). As a switch hitter, he'll get at-bats with regularity. And in the Cell, he'll probably see his power come back and might even get his walks back up.

If Betemit can hit .265 with a solid OBA and some pop while handling 1B and 3B solidly, I'll be happy with his addition as a cornerman. The fact that he's hit well in the Spring gives me a bit of hope as well.

Lillibridge (2B, SS)

This speedy mighty mite had been progressing rapidly through the Braves organization before running into a brick wall last year. He'd shown an ability to hit for average and get on base as well as surprising power to go along with his tremendous skills on the basepaths. Unfortunately, that all went to hell last year, when he hit .200 in 80 AB in the bigs, then went back to AAA to hit .220 in 355 ABs.

With Betemit having struggled in the middle infield spots and been relegated to a corner role, Lillibridge should take over the MI utility role, while also providing speed and the flexibility to play in center or left. As I've mentioned, I'd like to see him platoon a bit with Getz at 2B, giving the Sox a true leadoff hitter when Wise sits against lefties.

But even just as a utility guy, I think he'll make a nice mark on the Sox, bringing youth and speed. And as I've mentioned - Ozzie loves to use his bench, so this kid should get plenty of work if he can show any ability to hit.

Anderson (OF)

I'm just not sure what the heck the Sox are thinking with this kid. Why are they so committed to making every wrong decision in his development? First they throw him into the fire by having him replace a living legend on a World Series winner. Then when he finally overcomes that and shows signs of life in the second half of the year, they bury him behind an oft-injured, role player type with no future (Erstad).

Finally last year they get it a little, finding a role for his great defense, speed, and flashes of hitting ability by using him against some lefties, for pinch running, and a regular late inning defensive replacement. BA responds by filling all of those roles ably. This year the Sox step it up, making him one half a platoon, allowing him more ABs and a chance to develop some confidence hitting only lefties.

But, of course now they're talking about screwing the kid by asking him to turn himself into a leadoff hitter. If so, I guarantee the results will be disastrous. BA's gonna try to do things which he's not used to, and will focus on all the wrong things. He'll end up not hitting, the calls for his head will start immediately, Guillen will relegate him to a defensive replacement role, and his career with the Sox will soon be over.

Hopefully this doesn't happen. As I mentioned above, I'd like to see Guillen pair the Wise-Anderson platoon with a less stringent Getz-Lillibridge platoon. It works perfectly - Anderson and Getz would be your #9 hitters, both being able to develop their bats w/o any pressure and only facing righties/lefties. As I mentioned, the ideal would be to pair Owens and Lillibridge as the leadoff hitters, but Wise will have to do.

Either way, BA will be an asset to this club, if just for his pinch running and amazing defense in the outfield. I don't know what games other people watch, but I've yet to see what Anderson can't do. He's got great range, catches anything within reason, has a nice arm, and gives his pitchers supreme confidence. I'd really like to see BA take advantage of his opportunity in this platoon to break out, as if he was even a mediocre offensive player, he'd be a valuable asset for the way he plays center.


In all, I'm not sure what to expect from the Sox offense, but I feel pretty good that the defense will be a real asset. The Sox seem to be one of the few teams that gets how much defense matters (it's a big reason they've had good pitching in recent years, despite their tiny park) and it seems like they've got a lot of good athletes on the club.

As for the offense, to me it's about what Wise can do and whether Ozzie keeps them playing small ball. They've got a boatload of sluggers, so it'd be easy for him to wait around for the big jack. But the smart move would be to keep the focus on getting on and moving guys over, playing for that one run every chance you get, and using your power as a fallback option and a threat to allow you to be more effective in the small ball game. That was the approach that worked so well in 2005, and it's the approach Ozzie needs to return to for the Sox to have any chance at similar success.

, mainly because I don't know how Ozzie is going to approach things offensively. If they wait around for all of their sluggers to go yard - tempting,

Leading Off

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Seems fitting that my first post here would be about leading off.

I believe few things are as valuable to a baseball team as its leadoff hitter. To me they should be overpaid like big men in hoops and QBs in football - even mediocre ones should make good money, while the best get ungodly amounts.

A leadoff guy makes the whole offense go - they get on base in front of your best hitters, they put pressure on the opposing pitchers, and they focus your offense on scoring one run at a time. All three aspects are equally important and the best lead-off hitters succeed in each.

I do think that too much is made about the "ideal" leadoff hitter. The classic view was that the guy had to have blazing speed. That's important, but you can get by without it. The current view is that the guy has to be an OBA machine - again, it's important, but not necessary.

Instead, a leadoff hitter just has to accomplish those three goals, in any way they can.

1 - Get on base in front of the best hitters. That either means a good OBA or just being a consistent hitter. I'll take a guy who's got around a .340-.350 OBA if he's the type to avoid slumps. If he makes good contact and regularly hits around .285-.300, I think he's gonna do all you need from the #1 slot.

But the key is you've got to avoid prolonged cold streaks and strings of empty at-bats. You've got to find a way to regularly be productive when you're up.

2 - Put pressure on the opposing pitchers. Most important is seeing a lot of pitches. Even if you don't get on base at a high clip, a lead-off hitter does need to work counts and make pitchers put a lot of stuff up there to get him out. Also, a lead-off hitter can apply pressure with a big stick - forcing pitchers to work hard to avoid making a costly mistake.

Similarly, if you've got speed, there's huge pressure on the pitcher to make sure you don't get on base, where you can run wild. That speed threat also distracts a pitcher to no end, keeping him in a limited stretch, demanding more fast balls, and breaking up his concentration

3 - They focus your offense on scoring one run at a time. This is the aspect of a lead-off hitter that I think is least appreciated. Even during the steroid era, the teams who won the Series almost never had a single guy who hit over 40 HRs. That's because baseball is not about the most total runs in a season - it's about scoring a good amount of runs the most consistently.

Read that again - the key to a good offense in baseball is consistently scoring a good amount of runs each game. So stat heads can take their "12-runs one night, none the next" offenses. I'll take the "4-5 runs every game" model.

That's why you need a lead-off hitter who gets the coaches and players focused on just scoring one run at a time. So you bunt or walk to get on, use speed to steal or take extra bases, and keep the hitters behind you thinking only about moving you along. That both makes the game easier for your hitters - they only have to move a guy along - and harder for your opponent - they have to not only get an out, but ensure it's not a productive out.

That's called adjusting the odds in your favor, and it's the key to getting the most out of your offense, no matter what kind it is. Because when the pressure is off the hitters and on the pitchers, suddenly playing small ball to score one run turns into a 3-run rally when the pitcher makes a mistake pitch or a fielder throws the ball away trying to save a run.


So, those are the three attributes I'm looking for when I think about who's gonna lead-off for the ChiSox this year. And they lead me to believe that one of the Sox candidates is a bad idea, one is a risky idea with some real upside, and one is a decent idea that might be your best bet in the end.

The bad idea - Wise. I believe the guy is capable of being a solid situational leadoff hitter, but not your everyday guy. I feel he's just too streaky - he showed that last year, when he came up hot, cooled off, then got hot again in the playoffs. He's showed it again in the Spring, when he started like a bat out of hell before going stone cold. If you can carry a 5th OF, Wise would be a nice option to throw into the lead-off role here and there and ride him while he's hot. But that's the extent of his value to me.


The risky idea with great upside - Owens. When healthy and comfortable, he's shown himself fully capable of the job. But if either of those things aren't there, the guy struggles.

In 2006, he spent his first year in AAA and struggled in some facets of his game, hitting only .262 with a .330 OBA. But then in 2007, entering his second year on the level, Owens raised that average to .285 and kicked the OBA over .360.

In his first call-up to the bigs that year, he was terrible, hitting under .200. However, when called back up a second time, he settled in, hitting around .280 with a .360 OBA and stealin bases like crazy.

Same thing last year - an injury cost him the leadoff spot out of Spring Training and he struggled to start his season at AAA. Then he got healthy and comfortable and started to tear it up. However, another injury occurred mid-season, and again Owens struggled as he came back. But then, again, he got hot once he was back to his comfort zone.

So maybe you just give the kid the job and hope he both gets comfortable quick and stays healthy for the whole season. Owens could easily be a consistent .280-.290 hitter with a .350+ OBA and 50 SB speed (he was that way in the 2nd half of 07). He'd be the type who works counts and keeps the offense focused on simply moving him around the diamond.

However, maybe the kid just doesn't have it. Maybe he won't really get comfortable with the pressure on, or worse, maybe he just can't stay healthy. You definitely don't want the leadoff spot in the hands of a guy like Podsednik, who got hurt all the time and became totally worthless when he wasn't 100%.


The decent idea - Getz. He seems like he's got a consistent stroke that could lead to a steady average around .290 to .300. He doesn't walk a ton, but he's also not a free-swinger. And he's not a burner on the basepaths, but he's got enough speed to steal if you don't watch him and to take the extra base on hits.

The downside is that he's not used to leading off and might not adjust well to the bigs with the added pressure of learning a new role. You might be better off seeing what you can work out at leadoff while letting this kid develop into a strong asset at the bottom of the order.


My answer - I'm not exactly sure, but it's one of two angles. If Owens can get hot towards the end of camp, I commit to him and hope for the best. I let him work through some early season struggles and remain publicly very supportive, in hopes that he finds his stroke and stays healthy.

Or, I carry 5 bench hitters, allowing me to keep Anderson, Betemit, and a catcher, and both Lillibridge and Wise. I then juggle Wise and Getz at the top of the order, trying to ride Wise while he's hot and bring Getz slowly along into the position, all the while also platooning Anderson and Lillibridge against lefties, with Lillibridge leading off.


Definitely one of the spots I'm most interested to see how the Sox do in. I believe that if they're lead-off hitter is doing his job, you'll see a great Sox offense this year. If not, it could get ugly.