Leading Off

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Seems fitting that my first post here would be about leading off.

I believe few things are as valuable to a baseball team as its leadoff hitter. To me they should be overpaid like big men in hoops and QBs in football - even mediocre ones should make good money, while the best get ungodly amounts.

A leadoff guy makes the whole offense go - they get on base in front of your best hitters, they put pressure on the opposing pitchers, and they focus your offense on scoring one run at a time. All three aspects are equally important and the best lead-off hitters succeed in each.

I do think that too much is made about the "ideal" leadoff hitter. The classic view was that the guy had to have blazing speed. That's important, but you can get by without it. The current view is that the guy has to be an OBA machine - again, it's important, but not necessary.

Instead, a leadoff hitter just has to accomplish those three goals, in any way they can.

1 - Get on base in front of the best hitters. That either means a good OBA or just being a consistent hitter. I'll take a guy who's got around a .340-.350 OBA if he's the type to avoid slumps. If he makes good contact and regularly hits around .285-.300, I think he's gonna do all you need from the #1 slot.

But the key is you've got to avoid prolonged cold streaks and strings of empty at-bats. You've got to find a way to regularly be productive when you're up.

2 - Put pressure on the opposing pitchers. Most important is seeing a lot of pitches. Even if you don't get on base at a high clip, a lead-off hitter does need to work counts and make pitchers put a lot of stuff up there to get him out. Also, a lead-off hitter can apply pressure with a big stick - forcing pitchers to work hard to avoid making a costly mistake.

Similarly, if you've got speed, there's huge pressure on the pitcher to make sure you don't get on base, where you can run wild. That speed threat also distracts a pitcher to no end, keeping him in a limited stretch, demanding more fast balls, and breaking up his concentration

3 - They focus your offense on scoring one run at a time. This is the aspect of a lead-off hitter that I think is least appreciated. Even during the steroid era, the teams who won the Series almost never had a single guy who hit over 40 HRs. That's because baseball is not about the most total runs in a season - it's about scoring a good amount of runs the most consistently.

Read that again - the key to a good offense in baseball is consistently scoring a good amount of runs each game. So stat heads can take their "12-runs one night, none the next" offenses. I'll take the "4-5 runs every game" model.

That's why you need a lead-off hitter who gets the coaches and players focused on just scoring one run at a time. So you bunt or walk to get on, use speed to steal or take extra bases, and keep the hitters behind you thinking only about moving you along. That both makes the game easier for your hitters - they only have to move a guy along - and harder for your opponent - they have to not only get an out, but ensure it's not a productive out.

That's called adjusting the odds in your favor, and it's the key to getting the most out of your offense, no matter what kind it is. Because when the pressure is off the hitters and on the pitchers, suddenly playing small ball to score one run turns into a 3-run rally when the pitcher makes a mistake pitch or a fielder throws the ball away trying to save a run.


So, those are the three attributes I'm looking for when I think about who's gonna lead-off for the ChiSox this year. And they lead me to believe that one of the Sox candidates is a bad idea, one is a risky idea with some real upside, and one is a decent idea that might be your best bet in the end.

The bad idea - Wise. I believe the guy is capable of being a solid situational leadoff hitter, but not your everyday guy. I feel he's just too streaky - he showed that last year, when he came up hot, cooled off, then got hot again in the playoffs. He's showed it again in the Spring, when he started like a bat out of hell before going stone cold. If you can carry a 5th OF, Wise would be a nice option to throw into the lead-off role here and there and ride him while he's hot. But that's the extent of his value to me.


The risky idea with great upside - Owens. When healthy and comfortable, he's shown himself fully capable of the job. But if either of those things aren't there, the guy struggles.

In 2006, he spent his first year in AAA and struggled in some facets of his game, hitting only .262 with a .330 OBA. But then in 2007, entering his second year on the level, Owens raised that average to .285 and kicked the OBA over .360.

In his first call-up to the bigs that year, he was terrible, hitting under .200. However, when called back up a second time, he settled in, hitting around .280 with a .360 OBA and stealin bases like crazy.

Same thing last year - an injury cost him the leadoff spot out of Spring Training and he struggled to start his season at AAA. Then he got healthy and comfortable and started to tear it up. However, another injury occurred mid-season, and again Owens struggled as he came back. But then, again, he got hot once he was back to his comfort zone.

So maybe you just give the kid the job and hope he both gets comfortable quick and stays healthy for the whole season. Owens could easily be a consistent .280-.290 hitter with a .350+ OBA and 50 SB speed (he was that way in the 2nd half of 07). He'd be the type who works counts and keeps the offense focused on simply moving him around the diamond.

However, maybe the kid just doesn't have it. Maybe he won't really get comfortable with the pressure on, or worse, maybe he just can't stay healthy. You definitely don't want the leadoff spot in the hands of a guy like Podsednik, who got hurt all the time and became totally worthless when he wasn't 100%.


The decent idea - Getz. He seems like he's got a consistent stroke that could lead to a steady average around .290 to .300. He doesn't walk a ton, but he's also not a free-swinger. And he's not a burner on the basepaths, but he's got enough speed to steal if you don't watch him and to take the extra base on hits.

The downside is that he's not used to leading off and might not adjust well to the bigs with the added pressure of learning a new role. You might be better off seeing what you can work out at leadoff while letting this kid develop into a strong asset at the bottom of the order.


My answer - I'm not exactly sure, but it's one of two angles. If Owens can get hot towards the end of camp, I commit to him and hope for the best. I let him work through some early season struggles and remain publicly very supportive, in hopes that he finds his stroke and stays healthy.

Or, I carry 5 bench hitters, allowing me to keep Anderson, Betemit, and a catcher, and both Lillibridge and Wise. I then juggle Wise and Getz at the top of the order, trying to ride Wise while he's hot and bring Getz slowly along into the position, all the while also platooning Anderson and Lillibridge against lefties, with Lillibridge leading off.


Definitely one of the spots I'm most interested to see how the Sox do in. I believe that if they're lead-off hitter is doing his job, you'll see a great Sox offense this year. If not, it could get ugly.