Thursday, November 5, 2009

Really, Kenny?!?

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I know Kenny deserves the benefit of the doubt, given his long history of great trades, especially all those that were initially very poorly received. But I've been reviewing this Getz-for-Teahen deal from every angle and just do not get it. And I really don't get why the baseball pundits out there seem to think this is a reasonable deal.



First off, I like Getz. Is he great? Nope, but I think he can be a .280+ hitter who steals 20+ bases (w/ getting thrown out much), plays solid D, and gets on at around a .350 clip. He'll be cheap and capable.

I also think Getz has got real upside - not star upside, but help you win upside. I see him being sure-handed in the field, running the bases well, making good contact, developing into a bunter - ya know, doing the things we all whine and cry for all season as the Twins are whooping our over-paid, fundamentally retarded asses.

And I really love that Getz will do it all while costing us next to nothing for the next 3-5 years. Don't discount how huge it is to get a starter-caliber player for right near the league minimum. That opens up significant resources that can be spent elsewhere (like in the bullpen, the one area besides the leadoff spot where the Sox have a boatload of questions to answer heading into 2010).


Second, Teahen's absolute ceiling is a decent Util guy. He has no power, no average, no speed, and is nothing special on D. And he's not young, so what you've seen in KC is what you get.

Don't give me that "career numbers in the Cell" garbage. Sometimes a guy can go to a better park and thrive (see everyone in Texas and Cincy), but as I learned w/ Swish, you can't automatically count on it elevating a guy.

And don't give me that "left-handed" guy crap - his numbers against righties are just as crappy as his overall stats.

So from what the 28-year old Teahen has shown in his almost 2500 career ABs over 5 years, if he's playing every day, we're a crappy ballclub. He just doesn't have the production to play 1B, 3B, or corner OF on a good team. He's a career .269-.331-.419 guy who averages about 9 steals a year and plays decent but not exceptional D.

To put those numbers in perspective - they'd be mediocre for a 2B or SS, let alone the corner spots. Or more specifically, Scotty Pods this year, Brian Anderson in 2008, and Rob Mackowiak in 2007 all had higher slugging percentages than Teahen has had in any of the last three seasons. Just look at that list of players. Now think about the fact that they had MORE power than Teahen. Yep.

Simply put, as a corner IF or OF, Teahen brings nothing to the table, and by playing everyday, he keeps you from getting ABs from someone who could actually help you at those spots.


Third, while I like Teahen as a corner Util, there are two major issues with acquiring him for that role. We already have Kotsay as our 1B/OF util, just signed today for the same $1.5M he made last year. Kotsay is no great shakes, but he plays solid D, does the little things well, is a good pinch hitter, and appreciates his role. That makes him nearly ideal in that role, and means Teahen adds nothing to our squad we don't already have.

More important though, Teahen is also WAY overpaid. He made almost $4M last year and will earn more this year in arbitration. For a util guy? And not even an exceptional one or one w/ upside? Especially when we're already pushing up against our own payroll restrictions and in need of help in multiple areas?!? If KC just gave us Teahen for a bag of balls (i.e. Josh Fields), I'd still be pissed, given what he'll make in arbitration and how we need to keep what little payroll we have available for more pressing needs this off-season.


So why the hell are we giving up viable younger starting player like Getz for an overpaid, underwhelming player with no upside who can only fill a role we just signed someone to fill? Especially in this day of of cheap and young being all the rage when you're building a roster?


Here's the only way this deal makes any sense:

First - if dumping Getz leads to moving Alexei back to 2B, keeping Becks at 3rd, and finding a real plus defensive SS. I like Getz and hate to see him go, but I'm not sold that Alexei can ever be a SS on a winner. Two years in a row he's totally lacked the mental focus to get the job done. At least when Alexei was at 2B he saw fewer plays, they weren't as demanding, and overall felt less pressure. I'd say Alexei was probably a good to average 2B in 2008. This year at short he was well below average and a big reason we had to watch Game 163 between two garbage Central rivals. So if the price of keeping Alexei (a talent who we can't give up on yet) and not having him play SS is losing Getz, then so be it.

This does open the question as to who will play short, but I think the Sox could get away with a vet who's a real plus defender and does the little things while hitting #9 (sort of a Getz replacement). You've got a great pitching staff that's costing you a huge part of your payroll - it only makes sense to support them with a tremendous defense.


Second - if the Royals send us some money to make Teahen affordable as a utility player. His ability to play a number of different spots and hit respectably makes Teahen a nice bench player. Sure we've already got Kotsay there, but its possible the Sox will be going with a very flexible roster this year, utilizing the DH spot to mix-and-match the lineup as needed. In such a scenario, two bench spots can be effectively used on Teahen and Kotsay. The only downside there becomes Teahen's salary, but if they can sign him for $4M and get KC to cover $2M (which they might, given the cost-savings Getz and Fields offer), then Teahen is at a pricepoint and in a limited role that allows him to actually be an asset to the 2010 Sox.

I'm a big proponent of a strong bench, and Teahen can be a strong bench player. But the Sox just can't be spending relatively big bucks on bench players this offseason, and thus this deal stinks of we're on the hook for over $4M to Teahen next season.


But lord help us if Mark Teahen ends up starting in the OF or at 3B next year, as many are speculating this move entails. That will be a disaster similar to the Wise fiasco this year - expecting too much out of a guy who's spent his whole career proving he can't get it done, and then struggling all season long to find a proper replacement. How this giant lump of mediocrity is being bandied around as a Jermaine Dye replacement in all the latest trade reports is incredible to me. It'd take Teahen between a year and half and two years to give the Sox the 30 HRs and 90+ RBI that Dye averaged on the South Side.

As I said, I know I owe Kenny the benefit of the doubt based on how well so many of his deals have turned out.

But I also can't forget the way Kenny turned a championship team into an also-ran by purging all its attitude guys (Frank, Willie Harris, Everett, and Rowand), the way did the exact same thing to the division title team last year (dumping OC and Swish), the way he flopped on remaking the 2007 pen, OF, and top of the order, and the way he still hasn't gotten this team to look any better fundamentally, despite years and years and years of losing to the fundamentally sound Twins while Kenny and Ozzie swear that next year, the Sox will play better fundamental ball.

As of yet, the deal hasn't been confirmed by anyone, and could very well look different than it's being reported. Kenny's MO is to have the final deal resemble nothing of the talk ahead of time (if there even was any talk ahead of time). But as it stands, I'm gonna be furious if we lose Getz only to overpay Teahen, and I'm gonna be really furious if Teahen's being acquired to play more than 2-3 times a week, max.


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