U-G-L-Y... You Aint Got No Alibi

-

I was really hoping the Sox would win last night and I could spin this post positively. Sure it would have been largely BS - this team has just found ways to lose. But you gotta hang your hat on whatever you can and hope for the best. Being a fan is just more fun when you've got hope.

The idea was that a series win over the Rays, combined with the early split against the Jays on the road, would give us something we could build on. Seattle coming in this weekend can pitch, but they're beatable, especially outside of Safeco.

But instead I'm forced to reckon with the reality that this team has had one of the worst starts in baseball and has consistently found new and idiotic ways to lose. Starting pitching, relievers, defense, hitting - all of them have cost the team at least a couple of games. With the starting pitching the Sox have, every game is winnable. So far, only five times they've lived up to that promise.

Take this series with the Rays. The Sox followed up the opening game W with a pair of blow-out losses. First Buehrle and then Peavy crapped the bed. Buehrle I'll forgive - you know every 5-10 games he'll have a stinker. But in the end, he's gonna have an ERA in the 3s and win you 15+ games.

Peavy? That's a whole different story. My buddy Kramer seems to think he and AJ don't have the right chemistry. He says that Peavy has been waiving him off left and right. I haven't seen a ton of Peavy's starts, but I do remember that he waived off AJ at some crucial point in one of his previous outings and it seemed to bite him in the ass.

Is there something to that theory? Maybe - in watching the Sox in the AJ/Coop era, do you remember any pitchers waiving off AJ (or even the back-up) with any regularity? I can't remember it happening at all. Sure it does, but so rarely it's not really a thing. Between AJ, Coop, and their prep, most of the pitchers just go out and do what those guys tell them. And they should - AJ and Coop have a long, accomplished history and should be trusted.

Enter Peavy, who didn't seem to have these issues last year in his few Southside starts. Maybe he wasn't throwing to AJ much, maybe as a new guy, coming off injury, playing for a non-contender as the year wound down, he was just happy to pitch. Maybe now he's trying to establish his game, and it isn't jibing with AJ.

Or maybe there's nothing to this. Who knows, but somehow someone has to get Peavy back on track. The guy is flat nasty and still has nasty stuff. He's just not throwing strikes or making the pitches when it matters. He's had one good outing - against Cleveland, when Thornton blew the game. Can't fault either guy there - Peavy did his job and it's a rare day that Thornton doesn't make it happen.

But the rest of the time? Peavy's first outing featured 9 baserunners in 5 innings in a game the Sox eventually lost to the Tribe. One of those winnable games they found a way to lose. This second outing? Sox came out the victors, but no thanks to Jake's 7 ER in 5.2 IP. And then last night, with a ton of momentum on the line, with the Sox already having worn out the Rays starter and put a couple on the board. Peavy's response? Just walk everybody. Throw like garbage and piss away a great chance to finally get the season turned back around.

If the Sox win, they're 6-10 and largely can point to their 1-5 record against the Tribe as the source of their poor position in the standings. Instead, at 5-11 without a single series victory to their credit, the Sox have pretty much started out as poorly as they could have.

Peavy isn't alone in blame. Buehrle, Floyd, and Garcia all have thrown an absolute dud this year. Of course, every SP is gonna do that, and the Sox have a bunch of guys who are that way - 4 good outings, one terrible. But to have four starters all already put up an awful start in the first 16 games? You can't live with that, especially not when you're built to win behind your starting pitching. Let's hope it's dumb luck and that now we're in store for 20 straight quality starts. Why not - this staff is more than capable of it.

Of course, even if the pitching had been stellar every night, how much better off would the Sox be? A game or two above .500, maybe? Here's the lineup you run out there on most days:

1. Pierre - .217
2. Beckham - .228
3. Quentin - .167
4. Konerko - .245
5. Jones/Kotsay - .212 combined
6. Rios - .250
7. AJ - .163
8. Alexei - .212
9. Teahen - .250

Have you ever seen a team with this much talent where every single guy is not hitting?

And don't kid yourself - the Sox have talent. Pierre is a career .300 hitter who hit .308 last season. Beckham was the Sporting News Rookie of the Year last season. Quentin would have won the MVP in 2008 if he didn't break his wrist. Konerko has ten years w/ 20+ HRs, five years w/ 30+ HRs, and two years w/ 40+ HRs. Rios is a consistent 20-20 threat. AJ is a career .285-hitting catcher. Alexei was in the running for Rookie of the Year in 2008.

Was it expected a few guys would start slow? Of course, somebody always does. Alexei was even money to do so after his horrible starts in 08 and 09. But for the entire lineup to suck? I mean that's impressive.

The natural inclination is to call for someone's head. You can't fire all the players, so something has got to change. And I know this is the lame automatic response, but how many times is the Sox offense going to have to scuffle under Greg Walker for him to get let go? One of two things is wrong here - either Walk can't get the guys to hit or Kenny can't bring in guys who hit. Because aside the first half of 2006, the White Sox have ALWAYS been a subpar offensive team under Walk, despite spending big money on hitters and playing in an offensive park.

So is it Walker's fault or is it Kenny's? Someone has got to be accountable for the fact that in 2005, the 2nd half of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and now the start of 2010, we've had to complain about how our lineup isn't hitting. Think back to all of those years - in the World Series season, the one issue that was always brought up to allow national experts to disregard the Sox was their offense. And it almost cost us - the bats went quiet in August and September and the Tribe were a couple of plays away from making the Sox the biggest chokers in Chicago baseball history, rather than the greatest team in Chicago baseball history.

At the All-Star game in 2006 we were on pace for a 95-win season, and yet ended up not even w/in sniffing distance of the playoffs. Sure, some of that was the pitching (especially the pen), but a lot was the hitting reverting back to the same frustrating form. 2007 was a disaster on all fronts, including the hitting.

2008 we had success as a team, but much like 2005, it was a lot of smoke and mirrors offensively. I know I remember bitching that whole year about that team - they were clearly good, but found ways to frustrate you, most often with their hitting. Last year, more of the same - nobody could hit. So much so that Kenny tore the team down and nearly started over this year.

Here's the thing - it's still very early. You can have a bad three week stretch and still do fine. The old line about how you can't win a division in April but you can lose it? Um, that's the biggest bunch of crap I've ever heard. Games are games, and every team can be expected to go through a rough stretch. If the Sox were playing well and then hit a 5-11 run, we'd all be worried, but we wouldn't be convinced it meant all was lost.

So there's no reason to think that now. Yes, the starting pitching needs to get a bit more consistent. But the high end is there - Buehrle is Buehrle, Peavy will get it together and be nasty (he's been too good for too long not to), Danks has been amazing so far, Floyd is no stranger to stumbles, but always seems to right the ship, and Freddy should be as good or better than any 5th starter out there. And if not, Hudson has thrown very well down in AAA so far.

Mark my words, we won't lose because of our starting pitching. As for the relief pitching, who knows (the pen is always completely unpredictable), but so far it's been damn good. Sure Jenks has been shaky here or there, sure we've blown a few games that would have looked good in the W column right now. But if you really look at it, Jenks is a capable closer, Thornton and Putz are shut-down set-up men who've been good so far, Santos and Linebrink have quietly done incredible work in middle relief, and Pena and Williams have had a couple of bad outings, but in all can be counted on for a few middle inning outs here and there, which is all we need.

To me, the pen, more than anything else, dictates your team. As long as you have the talent around that can compete (i.e. you're not the Pirates or something), if you get good to great work out of your pen, then you'll be hard-pressed not to at least hang around contention. Given this same pen work for the next 5+ months, and I promise you the Sox will get back into it. They've got the starting arms. They've got the offensive talent. And if the pen is protecting leads and keeping them in the games, we're gonna get a lot of Ws.

So be encouraged about the pen, have faith in the starters, and hope and pray for some offense. The talent is there. The right mix of speed, power, average, and getting on base is there. The depth is there. The veterans are there, the youth is there. The guys just need to perform as we know they can. Maybe it does mean Walker is let go. Maybe it's just waiting around for the bats to get going. Keep trying to bunt, run, and manufacture, and hope that, as so often happens, the bats just randomly catch fire.

There are some encouraging signs - Andruw Jones looks fully capable of being a legit hitter again. Now he started hot last year too, so I'm not sold yet... but I at least like that it's a very real possibility. Rios is doing a lot better than he did with the Sox last year, and is just a few hits away from being about where you'd like him - at .280 with a nice mix of speed and power. Teahen, at .250 and with a great OBA (.388) and some respectable pop (.475 SLG %) is doing everything we need from a back-of-the-order guy. Konerko, with 5 HRs and a .566 SLG %, is definitely getting it done. Sure, I'd like to see that average up, but what will really help him is if he had a few guys on base in front of him.

That falls to Pierre and Beckham. Both are getting their walks, but neither are getting the hits. To me, these guys will dictate this team. I know people like to point to Quentin, and it's true that when he's going, the offense is way better. And his .167 average out of the 3rd slot is killing us. But we could overcome that (by moving Quentin down and using some other bats in the middle), if Pierre and Beckham were hitting like they should. There's no reason both of those guys aren't over .300, instead of around .220. But both are streaky, so if they can get it going, get back near .300, get the OBAs around .360 (Juan) and .380 (Beckham), then I think this offense will go.

As for AJ, Kotsay, and Alexei? AJ and Kotsay are vets - we weren't counting on them for big numbers, just solid at-bats and being a tough out. I've got faith they'll get there, absolutely. Alexei - we've seen this before and he's shown he can get himself out of it. It's frustrating, but again, I've got faith. He's playing better in the field from what I've seen, and that speaks to better focus. The bat will come around.

In all, I do still believe this team is built right and can be very special. I absolutely am drinking Ozzie's kool-aid of a more dynamic roster. They've upgraded defensively and seem to have ridiculous amounts of pitching depth. I'm bummed by the start, scared by what the Seattle pitching staff might do to us this weekend, and not looking forward to games in Texas and New York next week.

But right now, the Sox opponents matter less than they do. It doesn't matter who we're playing if no one can get a hit more than once every four times up. And it doesn't matter where we play if the starting pitchers are laying an egg every fourth day.

I thought about that before the season began - if we got out slow, it might end up being cool, as I've never followed a Sox team that successfully digs its way out and becomes the hot team in baseball. The team no one wants to face in the playoffs. It happens to a few teams every year - wouldn't it be fun if it was the Sox? They've got that kind of team - not much for big names, but tons of depth and a dynamic attack. Why couldn't we scuffle along for another few weeks, then quietly get it going?

That's what's keeping me going - even as we just continue to lose series after series. I'm thinking that we still have the type of team that can get hot and make some noise, become the surprise team everyone had written off. Of course I always believe this and it's never happened, except for those amazing few weeks in October of 2005. But why not this year? Although, I wouldn't mind if the Sox don't make it so dramatic and instead get hot tonight and are back into this thing before Memorial Day. That'd be cool too.

-