Muck Finnesota... Again

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I actually wrote this yesterday, but the way the Sox blew it again last night, it still all holds up. Is it fantasy football season yet?

Same tune, different day. The Sox pull a mega choke job against the Twins. I don't know if last night's back-and-forth heartbreaker at the hands of a former Sox hero was worse than the two losses at home last week. Each sucked in their own way, that's for sure. Losing back at home after a bad series in Baltimore really took the wind out of the sails, really started to set in a reality that we might be back out of this as quickly as we got into it.

Losing last night was almost predictable - hell, I did call it. My buddy was up in Minnesota for the game and texted after Paulie chocked, again, with the bases loaded in a key situation (he had done the same thing last week). I told him that the good news was that he would see a walk off. Even after we pushed a run across, a large part of me still could see the inevitable coming.

So what now? Well, first off, I freakin hate Minnesota. I respect the hell out of what they do, but I freakin hate them. Every single year we jostle for division superiority, every single year they somehow end up on top despite losing a boatload of talent from a seemingly already thinned out roster. Most infuriatingly, they often gain the edge by beating the crap out of us head-to-head.

We've got just three things to hang our hats on. 2005. 2008. And 2008 again. 2005 is obvious - while the Twins have been beating in our heads for a decade, they don't even have a World Series appearance to show for it, let alone the title we claimed in 2005. 2008 is also obvious - the one time it came down to a single head-to-head match-up to decide who goes on, the Sox prevailed in dramatic fashion. While the Twins have been victorious in a ton of long, slow, drawn out battles, we won the only time we met on the field in a win-or-go-home situation.

And 2008 again - this is where our lone hope lies now. Don't forget that in the final week of 2008, we went up to Minnesota needing to win a game or two to give ourselves a shot at the post-season. Instead we choked, losing all three in some sort of heartbreaking fashion. The division was gift-wrapped for the Twins - all they needed to do was win a home series against the lowly Royals.

Instead, despite the invincible way they often appear to us Sox fans, the Twins showed that they are human. That they do lose. That they can blow it... and will. They showed us something that we should remember from my note on 2005 - the Twins (of recent vintage) have never won it all. These Twins squad of this era, seemingly always the victor over the Sox and in the Central, have actually done a whole lot of falling on their own faces. That includes in the final series of 2008. And it includes a whole lot of post-season series.

So that's the hope. Sure we'll lose another game, maybe both, up in Minnesota. Things will look bleak. But remember that the Twins started the season red hot... only to fall back behind us. Sure we were playing incredible baseball, but if they had remained hot, we never would have made up that ground.

The Twins most definitely can lose. Like they did in 2008. I've been watching them closely of late, not just against the Sox but in their series against Oakland. They've been getting by with the smallest of margins. Sneaking out of jams, making great defensive plays, getting that one hit at the right time.

Sure, there's no question that's the sign of a winning team. But it's also the sign of a team catching all the breaks. And while that can last you a good while, it doesn't last forever. Ask the 2005 Sox - the caught every break in site from Opening Day until August 1st. You would have argued that such long success meant this team was making their own breaks, not catching them.

The reality is that it's always a combination of both, and when you start getting a little less lucky, often times that also leads you to start playing a little worse. The 2005 team saw a few things start to go wrong and before they knew it, an insurmountable 15-game lead required a nasty, nasty play by Juan Uribe to nail Coco Crisp to hold up.

So yeah, sitting 4 back of the Twins, staring at two more games in Minnesota against the hottest team in baseball... not my favorite place to be.

But this season is far from over. There's still six and a half weeks of baseball. 43 games - a whole QUARTER OF THE SEASON LEFT! The Twins are good, but they've got holes. Their offense, as always, is scratching and grinding to get by. But they are profiting from a high batting average from a team not made up of renowned hitters. That leads me to believe that an offensive correction is in order.

Like in 2008, when the Twins hit the mid-season point with a .300+ average with runners in scoring position. They stumbled a bit down the stretch because that level of clutch success is nearly impossible to replicate.

I also remember in 2008 that their bullpen blew a ton of games - something we have grown to assume doesn't happen with the Twins. Their pen has been strong, but as the Sox are learning, past performance doesn't guarantee future success. The best pen in the game can quickly become a liability with no warning. And as the pen goes, so does the team. Hell, the Sox got to Capps last night, a guy brought in to replace the struggling Rauch.

If the 2010 Sox have taught us anything, it's that few things dictate a team like it's pen. When Bobby was locking down games as quickly as the rest of the pen was setting em up, the Sox were literally unbeatable. But then Bobby started to show some cracks... and just like that everything has gone to hell. Putz failed in his efforts to move from set-up to closing and then last night Thornton, called on to do too much with Putz and Jenks out of the mix, became the goat.

Starting pitching is also a major part of the equation, one the Twins always seem to make work. But you can't help but notice that they don't have a single reliable arm in the group. They've got a rook (Duensing), a former wash-out (Pavano), a picture of inconsistency (Liriano), and two middling start-to-start types (Baker and Slowey). All of them (except Duensing) have a significant injury history. Can they keep it together for another 40+ games?


Why can't all or any of this happen to Minnesota? The offense slows just a bit? That'd mean a lot fewer Ws, as the Twins have been winning a lot of close games of late. The rotation loses a guy or two? Say hello to Blackburn's 6. ERA or AAA superstar Glen Perkins. Capps can't adjust to the AL, Crain or Guerrier hits a wall? Suddenly those tight games are being blown, quickly taking every bit of momentum with them.

On the flip side, why can't the Sox get hot again? Yes, the pen is a bit of a mess, but as quickly as it goes wrong it can be settled again. Putz can bounce back, Jenks could get healthy, Sale or Threets could step up to a bigger role. If there's anything I can predict in baseball, it's that pens are always unpredictable... for better or worse.

If the pen gets good again, the Sox will be locking down plenty of great starts by the rotation. Ed Jackson has looked like a godsend, while the other four, despite a few blips here and there, are still as tough as any group in baseball. Over the next 43 starts, I expect them to make a game out of at least 35 of them. That's a lot of games we'll have a chance to win.

Then it'll just take the offense doing the job. While they've had a few frustrating stretches (that Baltimore series, most notably), this offense has actually been scoring respectably of late. They've come from behind in a number of games and done enough to win games had our starters and pen been up to the task.


Plus, I've got faith that Kenny is gonna bring us another bat. Personally, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the biggie - Manny. Sounds a bit insane, but the Sox did kick the tires right before the trade deadline. They weren't very serious - only offering a garbage prospect and a hint of salary relief. Supposedly the Dodgers had little interest.

But since then the Dodgers have fallen farther out of the playoff race, arguably in an impossible position, being 6 games back of the wild card with four different teams to catch. On top of that, they added Scotty Pods, who's played well for them and fills a big hole at the top of their order. Ethier and Kemp sure aren't gonna sit, so where does Manny play?

The answer should be the Southside. Reinsdorf should OK Kenny taking on a significant portion of the salary. It makes good baseball sense and good financial sense. From a baseball perspective, righty or lefty, there's no bigger bat the Sox could get in a waiver deal than Ramirez.

The guy remains a beast and there's every reason to believe he'd respond to being dealt to a contender the same way he did a few years ago, when he hit almost .400 down the stretch to carry LA into the NLCS. Throw a motivated Manny (remember, he's playing for a contract now) into the middle of an order that already features Konerko, Quentin, and Rios, and you've got yourself as formidable of a lineup as any in baseball.

That's the kind of move that can spark the Sox back out of the doldrums and into the playoffs. The post-season windfall alone would make it a smart financial move, but even in the short term, getting Manny would do wonders for the Sox walk-up attendance, such a huge part of their financial outlook. There are few names in baseball as big as this guy, few people you'd actually want to see put on your teams uniform.

Now don't get me wrong, I hate Manny for being a cheating roider and hope he gets shunned from the Hall like all the other roiders have so far. And it would pain me to win a division or even a Series title with a cheater like that as part of the team. But damnit, I'm a Chicago baseball fan - I don't get to question the nature of any of the very, very rare success that comes my way. And cheater or not, right or wrong, Manny is fun as balls to watch, especially when he's carrying your team to the promised land.


So yeah, I've still got hope. But there's no question I'm gonna take a step back from the Sox for a bit, see if they can't right the ship again. One win in Minnesota and a pair of series wins over KC and Baltimore. Then we're hosting the Yanks in a series that while certainly tough on paper, also offers an opportunity to get some real momentum going again.

Could we be back in it before August is up? Hell, even if we're not, I'm gonna keep hope. The starting pitching is there, the pen can come back, and the hitting might just be getting better. Minnesota has a lot of room to fall and there's SO much baseball left. This team still has at least 3 more weeks before we can say anything with any confidence. Until Minnesota leaves town on Thursday, September 16th, we've still got a chance.

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