Another Key Piece... But Now What?

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I'm gonna start by reiterating what I preached on and on about when the Sox first traded for Teahen, and was even more incensed about after they gave him that absolutely indefensible, asinine 3-year extension that pays him $4.75M this year and $5.5M in 2012!?!

This guy is the poster child for mediocrity, doing a bunch of stuff just below average, without doing a single thing well. Yes, Teahen can hit left-handed, play 1B, 3B, LF, and RF, and isn't terrible in speed, power, average, or contact.

But Teahen's not good at a single one of those things - sure he's a lefty, but he's not giving you numbers you're happy about no matter which side they come from. Sure he can play any corner spot - infield or outfield - but he's not much of a defender at any of them (and looked like he really shouldn't be a 3B for more than maybe a game every week or two). And offensively, Teahen's a .260 hitter with little power who will K too much and not walk enough, who isn't exactly threatening Pierre for the team lead in steals.

The reason I'm bringing this all back up is that contract extension is looking SO painful in the face of what we're dealing with today. At best Teahen is a 1B-3B-LF-RF bench guy. I'd say he's probably comparable to a Kotsay or Blum, both of whom will make around $1-$1.5M this year. So Teahen is essentially pissing away $3.5M of Sox money each of the next two years that they desperately could have used elsewhere.

Now for some clubs, this would be only a mild annoyance. Take the Yanks or BoSox, whose payrolls are strictly based on how much money the owners want to make that year. For them, if they need that $3.5M to get a key reliever or middle infielder to put them over the top, the owners will just shrink the profits they'll make with the hope of recouping it due to a more successful team.

For other clubs, like the Cubs or Orioles, you're not really close to contending anyway, so no $3.5M piece is really making a discernible difference on the final outcome of your 2011 season anyway. So why care?

But the White Sox? That $3.5M is the difference between a revolving door of unready prospects and washed up journeymen blowing key games out of your pen, and a steady, proven veteran reliever getting the ball to your set-up men on the way to another big W.


Or at least, that's what I would have thought before yesterday. The Sox payroll was reportedly tapped out, with every last dime and creative maneuver already utilized to bring Paulie and AJ back while still adding Dunn to the fold. Holding tight seemed to be the best option, with subtraction a possibility.

And that was fine, as the team looked fairly close to where you needed it to be, and with the exception of Teahen, almost all the money was very well-spent. The one issue - a glaring hole (or maybe two) still remained in the bullpen, a place that you simply cannot win w/o being strong. And a place that $3.5M can make all the difference.

But late Wednesday, the Sox somehow found another $4M per to bring aboard Jesse Crain. Not sure how, not sure what this will mean going forward, all I know is that Crain fits the bill perfectly for what the Sox needed most, and the Sox management team somehow made it happen despite all indications that there was no more money to be spent.

Crain has been one of the many seemingly interchangeable arms that come out of the Twins pen and lock down games, especially against the Sox. He's a 29-year old right-hander who has had bouts of inconsistency due to somewhat iffy control and not over-powering stuff, but yet still has been a crucial part of the Twin's relief staff since he first came up in 2004.

Crain's shown that he's good for a 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 50 Ks and 25 walks in 60 IP. Those numbers aren't stellar, but they're pretty good and can work for a #2 or #3 righty out of the pen. Especially because Crain has often been much better than that - it's just that he'll struggle for stretches, as he did when an injury in 2007 robbed him of a bit of his effectiveness for a few seasons.

Now the thing with relievers is you never know what you're going to get. Linebrink showed that - after being one of baseball most dominant set-up men for a number of years, he struggled to be effective after the first few months of each season on the Southside, putting up disastrous 2nd halves every year he was here.

However, Linebrink made his mark in the NL and throwing out of PetCo in San Diego, the league's most pitcher-friendly park. On the other hand, while the MetroDome is less hitter-friendly than the Cell, Crain's been equally effective on the road over his career and, much more importantly, has proven he can get it done in the AL Central.

Still, there's a little bit of caution here in that before last year, Crain hadn't had a WHIP below 1.27 since his first full year in the bigs in 2005. For a guy who's not a high strike-out arm (far less than a K/IP over his career), that's a lot of hitters for a reliever to be putting on base. And before last year, he hadn't been all that effective since the 2007 injury, with an ERA in the high 3s or worse.

But having raised the requisite red flags, I'm still high on this signing for two reasons. First, as I keep saying, the Sox most definitely needed another proven veteran arm to have any chance of success in 2011. They still aren't perfect out there (I'd like to see one more arm with some late-inning upside and Pena brought back into the mix), but at least they're close enough that you can hope the rest can be cobbled together off the scrap heap or out of the system.

Because make no mistake, Crain's got as much ability to be a strong 7th/8th inning guy as anyone out there. Before his injury in 2006, he'd been pretty lights out to start his career. And beginning about midway through 2009, Crain started to look like that pitcher once again. He finished that season almost untouchable in the second half, struggled a bit to start 2010, and then returned to being one of Gardenhire's most reliable late-inning options.

Seeing those pair of second half surges, I went and looked at Crain's career splits and was impressed by what I saw - this is a guy who gets stronger as the year goes on. Year in and year out, he consistently seems to stumble here and there in the first half before putting it all together around mid-season.

Over his career, Crain's posted a pretty poor 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the 1st half. So know that Crain might seem a bit of a bust early on. I'm sure the fans will probably get on him about this, but I hope Ozzie is able to show some patience and confidence in this guy, because the Sox need a reliever who can get it done down the stretch.

The way the Sox pen has fallen apart pretty much every year under Ozzie, it's nice to have a guy like Crain who will be there to pick up some of the slack. In second halves over his career, he's posted a sparkling 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. If Crain repeats that kind of down-then-up performance in 2011, I'll be very happy with this move. I think it'll go a long way to giving us the late-season stability in the pen, the lack of which helped tanked good Sox teams in 2006 and 2010.

The second reason I'm high on this signing? Because Kenny is on record, in response to the Quentin rumors, that he would not be weakening one part of his team to improve another. So if he's not looking to deal CQ because of how it'd hurt the lineup (and all the latest reports affirm that Kenny respectfully listened to overtures but made no effort to part with CQ), you've got to figure he also won't be looking to deal Ed Jackson (as some have theorized might be the follow-up move to get the payroll back to levels the Sox have previously proven comfortable with).

And nor should Kenny be considering something like that. Even if Peavy is declared fit to pitch tomorrow, would you really be confident in him getting around 30 starts this year? And as durable as Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle have been, it's rare for a team to avoid injuries to all four of its top starters.

Given that you've built a team capable to win this year, that you can't hope to do so w/o strong starting pitching up and down the rotation, and that you're already taxing your depth with Peavy's uncertainty, the Sox are in no place to consider dealing Ed Jackson (or any of their other starter) unless they're just blown away.


So where does that leave the Sox? Apparently at a payroll approaching $125M (after assumed arbitration salaries are included). Is that sustainable? Since the winning the World Series, the Sox have been around $100-$110M. Now they did spike up to over $120 in 2008, but since then they've lost a bit of the revenue bounce they got from the title, have seen an epic recession, and don't have any salary offsets coming in (such as the $3.5M the Dodgers gave the Sox for Pierre, which they Sox then gave to the Braves to cover Linebrink).

Assuming what Kenny says is true, that they aren't moving key pieces, that leaves really only two salaries the Sox can hope to shed at this point - the above-mentioned Teahen's $4.75M (and another $5.5M next year) and Viciedo's $2.25M (and $3.25M next year). Even that's only $6M in savings this year (over the min level guys you'll still need to fill out your bench) and it's extremely unlikely anyone is gonna agree to take on all that wasted money on Teahen unless you're giving up a pretty good prospect or sending over cash (which defeats the purpose).

But maybe that's what's gonna happen. Maybe Kenny does part with a quality prospect in order to move Teahen off the books, under the thinking that it's no different than trading a quality prospect for a reliever (as Teahen's money could be seen as used for Crain). And maybe Viciedo is shipped out, bringing back that very same quality prospect.

Maybe it means pairing Viciedo with Teahen to some team with a little bit of money who loves Viciedo's upside. Not unreasonable, given how Viciedo raked last year in AAA - .274 AVG and .493 SLG in 343 ABs - and the bigs - .308 AVG, .519 SLG in 104 ABs. This kid might just be a great young power-hitting 3B (or more likely, 1B) who's cheap and has loads of upside. That might be worth taking on some garbage salary in Teahen for some team.

And it would make perfect sense for the Sox, who don't seem to have a place for Viciedo moving forward. Konerko and Dunn have 1B/DH locked up, while moving Dunn to LF isn't an option because of Pierre and whomever takes over the leadoff spot (say Jordan Danks) in 2012. It's questionable whether Viciedo can play fulltime 3B, especially on a team that is built around defense, not to mention how the Sox seem pretty committed to Morel anyway.

The Sox could keep him in AAA - Viciedo will only be 22 on Opening Day - but he's getting a bit expensive for that now and that's still only a temporary solution. Worst case he takes a step back and loses all value - while still costing you money - and best case is that he hits so well that you can't keep him down for much longer.

However, maybe that temporary solution is worth it, as who knows what the future brings. Morel hit like crap in his big league stint last year, and as we've seen with Crede and Fields, there's no guarantee that he'll be a solid player any time soon. An injury to Konerko or Dunn or even Quentin might make a hot-hitting Viciedo a perfect short term stop gap. Or an injury or ineffective play elsewhere might make Viciedo the perfect mid-season trade piece.


I've got to be honest, I have no idea where these Sox are heading from here this off-season. I laid out my thoughts for the hitters in my little position-by-position state of the union and touched on what I thought the Sox should do about the pitching in my summary post after the Dunn, Konerko, and AJ moves.

But at this point, the Sox have gone in such a different direction from what I originally thought and put themselves in such an unexpected position that I can't really say what the next moves Kenny will be making are. Maybe nothing. Maybe he just finds some crap heap types to compete to round out the pen and bench and 6th starter spot and lets Spring Training determine the make-up of the final roster.

If that's the case, if the Sox really are going to keep their payroll where it is now and hold tight with their roster and prospects as is, I think I'm ready to declare this off-season a success. The questions that remain are ones you can hope to "figure out" in Spring Training, such as pen, bench, and rotation depth.

Otherwise, you can look at the team you have now and say it has pretty much everything you need to be a World Series champ. Speed, run production, defense, bench depth, stellar rotation, and a strong pen. Fill in the depth pieces with those random guys Kenny and Ozzie are good at finding and why couldn't we be watching another South Side parade next October?


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The Carlos Question

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Last week, (here) I laid out the expected Sox 25-man roster based on what they've got under contract now.

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm

I ended the post saying that there was one more big thought the above lay-out inspired and today I share it with you:

-Rumors flew around this weekend that Quentin was now available. But then Kenny came out and said that while he knew he needed to upgrade the pen, he would not do so by taking away from his starting lineup. He didn't think that made sense to weaken one area to help another.

I totally disagree. Look at that lineup and you realize that CQ is not necessary at all. Paulie-Dunn-Rios are a plenty good 3-4-5 combo, while after that AJ and Alexei are more than respectable 6-7 options. This team has enough power that it can replace Quentin with a low cost option, maybe even a platoon, of the type of OF vagabonds you find floating around.

I'm not talking about garbage scrap heapers like Andruw Jones (who was respectable last season, if a bit over-exposed). I mean proven big league bats who can play good outfield defense at a few different spots, move a little bit on the bases, and combine just enough average, power, and OBA to warrant semi-regular at-bats in the back of your lineup.

Think about what happens if you move Quentin:

1) You get a bunch of assets back.

This is a guy who's proven he can put up MVP numbers in the bigs. Sure the reality of CQ is what we got in 09-10 (30 HR power, 10 RBI production, low average, solid OBA, and lots of injuries), but the fact that Quentin's 2008 exists jumps his value significantly. There just aren't that many guys who've shown they can do that, even inconsistently.

On top of that, CQ is young and under team control for another two seasons. Most teams can't afford market prices for middle of the order bats, so the chance to slot CQ for maybe $5M and $8M the next few seasons is pretty attractive to most clubs. Especially because he's a class guy who's played both left and right - there aren't a lot of things to give you pause aside those nagging injuries. But they haven't cost CQ a whole season or anything, and you're not tied into a big, longterm contract or anything.

I could definitely see Quentin bringing back a nice young major league ready bullpen arm with good potential and maybe another prospect or two to help re-stock the system a bit. Teams always have young arms and prospects - sure they're valuable as ever now, but aside a stud young starting pitcher, nothing is more valuable than a cheap young middle of the order producer.

So find that promising young pitching prospect who isn't slated to be a starter but looks like (or even has already proven that) he's able to get outs in the 6th or 7th innings. Build a deal around him and whatever other minor league assets you can get. The trade market for a guy like Quentin most definitely exists, as Quentin's name is always coming up in trade rumors, and apparently that's not of the Sox doing. Especially this off-season, when there aren't much for big bats in free agency nor many viable trade options.

2) You upgrade your OF defense and possibly find a better 2-hole option.

By every measure Quentin is a pretty bad OF. He was serviceable in left, using his plus arm and the general mediocrity of this position across baseball to be OK, but in right the numbers suggest he's hurting you a bit out there. It wasn't terribly obvious when watching him, but it also wasn't obvious watching Dye in 2009, but by every metric he was about the worst RF in baseball that season.

So it's easy to discount the value of a good defensive OF or not realize the harm of a poor one, but given the Sox investment in starting pitching, this team needs good defense to be successful. Your starters aren't gonna fill their potential if you don't have guys behind them who can get the job done. And upgrading your RF defense - fairly easy to do from Quentin to some journeyman, given that you can expect to get good D if you aren't demanding a great bat - will make a real difference.

On top of that, it shouldn't be difficult to find one of these plus OF defender types w/o a real high impact bat but with the ability to make contact, put down bunts, work the count, and hit just well enough when facing only righties or lefties to fulfill the role of a #2 hitter. These guys are generally platoon types or 4th OFs, especially in the NL, and very much exist in some abundance.

3) You free up money to spend on your pen.

I gotta figure CQ is gonna jump from $3.2M to $5-6M, maybe more. The guy drove in 87 runs last year, despite missing a bunch of time, and has that tremendous 2008 on his resume. I can't say I'm great at guessing arbitration numbers, but certainly it won't be less than $5M or so, and could be up near $7M or even $8M.

The Sox know about what number they're looking at to keep CQ and have built that into their payroll math. So when they say they're tapped, that includes the $5-$8M they are going to have spend on CQ next year. But if they deal him, suddenly that money is freed up. You figure you can find a decent platoon of solid defensive RFs capable of hitting #2 for about $3-4M total, giving you another $2-4M to go and spend on the pen.

That could mean another top notch arm like Putz last year, or it could be a couple of solid veteran journeymen, like a respectable 6th-7th inning spot righty (think Vizcaino from the 05 team) coupled with a 2nd tier lefty (think Marte from the 05 team).


However the Sox would spend the money, the simple fact is that as the pen stands right now, the Sox are set up for disaster in 2011. I know everyone's all pumped for this lineup, to have AJ and Paulie back while somehow also adding Dunn. On paper the Sox look amazing. But the pen is the easiest area to overlook when analyzing a team and yet by far the most crucial to getting to and advancing in the playoffs.

Think 2006 - that's what I see in this team right now. A ton of offense. A great lineup of SPs. And a couple of pen arms you can rely on mashed together with a whole bunch of question marks.

So what happened in 2006? We got off to an incredible first half, as good as any team in baseball at the All-Star Break, looking like a real perennial power. But then the pen started having issues and suddenly everything else fell apart. The lineup and rotation had too much pressure on them w/ the way the pen was blowing games and ultimately the second half was a disaster, netting the most disappointing 90-win season in Sox history.

What really spooks me about that prediction is that 2006 was far from the only season that the pen melted down in the second half. My brother made the point that there seems to be something to how Ozzie uses his guys that leaves them susceptible to injuries or ineffectiveness shortly after the All-Star Break. It happened last year and also was a concern in 2008, even tho we fought through it to win the division. And while we weren't much for competitive in 07 or 09, the pens were definitely worse late in the year than early on.

Some of the solution lies in Ozzie learning to better use his pen early on. Don't always go 7-8-9. Don't always go to your stud set-up guy in every sign of trouble, nor bring out your closer whenever the game isn't a laugher in the 9th. Protect these guys every chance you can get, work hard to get them strings of days off to really allow for some recovery in-season. And develop the lesser guys so later in the year they're experienced in dealing with some of the tough situations that arise.

But the real foundation to answering the Sox bullpen problems comes from loading up on as many capable arms as possible. As it stands, the Sox have two sure-things in their pen - Thornton and Santos. And I don't mean sure-things in terms of effectiveness - only Mariano Rivera is a sure thing bullpen arm. Everyone else it's year-to-year, outing-to-outing.

I mean sure-thing in that they will be crucial parts of the Sox relief staff in 2011. Otherwise, it's all up in the air. Personally I'd like to see Thornton closing and Sale as the 7th/8th inning lefty option. I think Sale showed himself fully capable of the job last year and I don't see any reason to mess with success.

The argument would be that the Sox have a lot of money tied up in their rotation and no guarantee these guys will be around longterm, so you've got to develop that next generation of starters. But I'm not buying that totally. Sure there's some truth to it and if I could be sure Sale would be an effective starter, I'd say let's do it.

But I'm not at all sure of that - the kid hasn't started ever at the professional level. So far Sale's been purely a reliever in the bigs and minors, and he's done a tremendous job of it. Why fix what ain't broke? Especially because relievers are tremendously valuable - as I said, they're so unpredictable that if you find one - like Thornton - who delivers every night for seasons on end, he can be just as important to your success as a middle rotation starter.

So I'm sticking with Sale in the pen, using Thornton to close, and letting Santos work a 7th/8th role. But I'm also making sure I get another possible 7th/8th back in a Quentin deal, and then using the savings there to bring in another reliable 7th/8th option or a pair of 6th/7th options that might just have 7th/8th upside.

My theory with a pen is that you aren't going to get what you expect, so you need to have a ton of different options to make up for the injuries and ineffectiveness that nearly every team in baseball goes through in its pen over the course of a 162 game season (not to mention playoffs). Think about 2005 - Shingo flames out early, so Hermanson takes over. He gets hurt, so Jenks steps in. But it didn't end there - Hermanson's move out of the set-up role only worked because Politte was able to step into it. And when Marte proved unreliable, the Sox couldn't have sniffed a series title without Cotts there to dominate as a 7th/8th lefty.

Sure, a lot of that was luck - Politte and Cotts didn't have another good season the rest of their careers after being as untouchable as any set-up men I've ever seen. But Politte had closed before and Cotts came with a strong pedigree. While they initially were counted on only as spot guys in middle relief, there were some signs that they might just have what it takes to step up if need be.

That's what Kenny needs to assemble - a pen that not only looks good in it's closer and set-up spots, but also has 2nd and even 3rd options for every role to deal with whatever troubles come the Sox way. It ain't easy to do it, but if the Sox don't get creative and figure it out, then


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Dunn, AJ, Paulie... and then?

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After making one of the first big splashes of the off-season with the Dunn signing, Kenny wasted no time bringing AJ back into the fold and after a bit of back-and-forth and showing some impressive creativity on the Sox side and flexibility on Konerko's side, the team was able to keep the Captain around for another three seasons as well.

Where does this leave the Sox for the rest of the off-season? Apparently, tapped out financially, which seems to make sense after giving Dunn $13M.

The savings you got from dumping Linebrink ($2M), Jenks ($7.5M), Kotsay ($1.5M), and Freddy ($1M), the drop in Pierre's salary ($1.5M), and the creative structuring of AJ's contract (only $2M in 2011, after $6.25 in 2010) is mostly eaten up by contractual raises to Peavy ($1M), Rios ($2.3M), Alexei ($1.5M), Teahen ($1M - to $4.75M... yes, we're paying this bum almost $5M!), Floyd ($2.25M), and Thornton ($1M), plus the impending Arbitration raises that Danks, Quentin, and possibly even Pena (more on him later) will get.

Looking at those numbers, it's impressive they even found $13M for Dunn, so I believe Kenny when he says that as things stand today, they've got no more room to make any significant adds.

So how does that leave our Sox looking, assuming that they don't make any more moves?

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm


My thoughts:

-Personally not a fan of Becks in the #2 slot, especially behind Pierre, as I think he's far better off further down where he can just hit, instead of needing to wait for Pierre to steal, then need to hit behind the runner, execute hit-and-runs, and so on. This kid struggled once already - let's put Beckham in a spot to succeed, really prove himself just as a hitter, before asking him to fill a challenging and vital role.

Let's not repeat the hard-learned lessons of last season's horrendous start, please. Especially after seeing a good, but not unbeatable Texas team get through the AL, I absolutely believe that with the starting arms the Sox had and their solid lineup, we could have made some real noise in the post-season. Reminded me a lot of 2003, when another well-built Sox club missed the playoffs thanks to a terrible start that gave them no room for error down the stretch.

Now I get why Ozzie is thinking Beckham is his #2 - he doesn't have any other clear options (unlike last year, when Kotsay was so obviously the right answer). But, at least to start off, I'd use AJ here instead. Then if Beckham comes out swinging the bat great, I might move him up to #2. But take the pressure off early.

Sure, AJ is far from ideal, as it puts two lefties back-to-back and takes away any southpaws from the back of your order. And of course, AJ isn't exactly the dictionary definition of a #2 hitter. But they won with him at #2 in 2008 and I just think about how AJ approaches at-bats, loves to bunt or hit behind runners, runs smart on the bases, and is well-versed in the Twins school of fundamental baseball.

To me, that makes him the best option the Sox currently have in their starting lineup to fill the #2 hitter responsibilities that hitting behind Pierre and in front of Konerko and Dunn demands. And a good manager thinks outside the box a bit and makes these kind of calls.

Though what I think I'd really do is start Vizquel at 3B and let him be my #2 hitter. He showed last season he's got everything it takes - respectable average, good at-bats, great bunter, decent speed and good base-running. But it sounds like the Sox really want to keep Vizquel as a Util guy - I can see that, given his age and need for that bench 2B/SS. But unless Morel or Viciedo really shows they can get the job done, I wouldn't hesitate starting the year with Omar at 3B and in the #2 slot.

In fact, my approach would be to let Vizquel show you that he's too old to get it done before you write him off. I hate when teams go into the off-season and decide that because on paper it's time to move from a proven vet to a promising youngster, that they're just gonna go ahead and do it.

I'd far prefer to see Morel to come into camp with something to prove. Tell him the job's Vizquel's and he's got to show he deserves it more. And let Vizquel know that as long as he does what he's done, the position is his to lose. That's how it should be, but so many GMs and Managers are too proactive, forcing things they want to be the case before they actually are.

What I really like about this plan is that it gives you a lot of room for error. If Vizquel struggles early, at least he'll still be doing the little things to help as a #2 hitter and plus defensive 3B. With Beckham in the #2 slot and Morel as an everyday 3B, if either doesn't do well, they're gonna start screwing up their confidence and also not contribute a whole lot to the team.

Instead, put them both in a position to succeed early - Beckham down in the order and Morel in Spring Training and a Minor League stint without any expectations, but instead a challenge to prove himself. Once both of those guys are up and grooving, then you can slot Beckham into the #2 hole and Morel onto the big league club as your 3B.


-There are some talks of batting Dunn #3 behind Beckham, but that would mean once Dunn bats, pitchers are facing righties the rest of the way thru the heart of the order, with AJ the only respite until JP comes around at #1 again. Konerko might not be ideal as a #3 hitter - I don't see him repeating his .300 average again this year - but he's a real presence in the lineup, especially with the likes of Dunn protecting him. With Dunn's lefty bat in the clean-up slot, you're now going R-L-R through 3-4-5, and that challenges pitchers and managers.

Now I'm not one to overplay the importance of righty-lefty (as the Sox did last year, with Kotsay at the #5 slot, or by using the RBI-light AJ there in the past), but if you have the option to utilize R-L to your advantage, then you should do so.


-I love Rios at #5 - after a pair of cloggers like Konerko and Dunn, it's great that you'll start to get into some athleticism. Quentin actually doesn't move bad at #6 and Alexei can really fly at #8. You start mixing speed throughout your lineup and not only do you make yourself more dangerous to other teams, but it will keep Ozzie from falling asleep at the wheel while he waits for 3-run homers.

Aside Konerko and Dunn, you've got a lineup that can steal and do hit-and-runs top to bottom, and that kind of approach to the game keeps your offense more steady and consistent. And as I've harped on in the past - you've got to build a lineup that inspires Ozzie to manage, else he'll happily not do so and blame it on his personnel.


-I'm very curious to see who will be the bench CF option and also whether the Sox will carry 7 relievers or 5 bench hitters. It's a small thing, but still important, especially the way Ozzie uses his bench much like an NL coach. A lot will go into this and we probably won't know until Opening Day, but it'll be interesting to see it shake out.

Will Viciedo forces his way onto the roster if he isn't the everyday 3B? It could happen if he rakes in Spring Training but Morel if looks solid too, he'll get the nod for his defense. So what then - how are you gonna get Viciedo at-bats w/ Dunn and Paulie around and Morel also a righty?

What about the OF? Right now Teahen is the only bench guy who can play OF and he's not a CF. So they're gonna have to add someone and with CQ out there, possibly Dunn on occasion, you're gonna need a CF-capable guy who's fairly strong defensively for the late innings. Ozzie has shown he can get a lot out of the guys Kenny finds for him, so I'm curious who this will be.


-The Sox are saying they're going to be very cautious with Peavy, which they should be, given that he's owed $16M this year, $17M next year, and the club holds what is essentially an $18M option the following year ($22M w/ a $4M buy-out). Throw in the fact that this is an injury you generally see in QBs but not pitchers, and a slow, cautious approach makes perfect sense.

The problem is that it's not easy to gameplan around missing your #1 starter for anywhere between 1 and 3 months. I loved the Freddy Garcia pick up last year and it proved to be genius - they would have been also-rans all season if it wasn't for his 9-3 record before the All-Star Break.

But not only can you not bring back Freddy, you'll have a hard time finding someone similar to sign on for a non-guaranteed role on the team after a month or so. Proven guys like Freddy won't come cheap enough nor will be happy with an uncertain role. And unproven guys - like Freddy was last year coming off his injuries - won't want to come somewhere they aren't guaranteed a chance to re-establish their value.

So the Sox are going to have to get creative, either by finding a viable arm out of their group of prospects or matching up with a trash heap guy who's so desperate for a chance that he'll accept this uncertain role. On thing I hope they don't do, which is something there is a lot of talk of them doing, is use Sale in the spot. I'll talk more on this later, but in brief I'd rather not sacrifice a seemingly sure asset in a great area of need to be a 5th starter maybe just for a month.

One thing I'd like to see the Sox look into - Tony Pena. He's arbitration eligible, so it's possible they non-tender him and he moves on, much like what happened with DJ Carrasco last year (who, by the way, had another productive season out of the pen - not sure why the Sox dumped an effective reliever who could fill any role when such reliable guys are so hard to come by, especially when he signed for peanuts).

Pena only made $1.2M last year, hasn't had impressive numbers, and is in only his 2nd arbitration year - how expensive could he be? And if arbitration would bring Pena a salary that doesn't fit the market (as it often does), isn't it possible to non-tender the guy but still bring him back for a price that's good for both sides? Especially if you're offering him a chance to be a starting pitcher (which ups his earning power), something no one else is going to do?

I really think Pena has a shot to be an ideal short-term #5 starter. He showed himself shockingly good when given multiple innings of work - in the 13 appearances where he racked up 3+ IP this past year, Pena was quality in 9 or 10 of them.

Pena also got what equated to 4 starts this past season, counting when he took over for Floyd after 7 pitches (and no outs). Pena had a respectable 4 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB over 7 IP, then finished the year with a 6 inning, 0 ER game and a 6 IP, 3 ER outing before struggling in his final start to the tune of 6 ER in 6 IP.

It's only four games, but if he could keep that up - 1 great, 2 OK, and 1 bad start in every four - Pena would be a perfect #5 starter, especially for only part of the season. And I have faith he could - for whatever reason last year, when Pena was tasked with throwing a lot of innings, he rose to the challenge. Aside the respectable four starts, he also had two other 4+ inning outings where he allowed either no runs or 1 run.

Another thing I like about using Pena in this role is that he also is able to seamlessly move back into the bullpen to fill that spot and long relief role like he did in the past. So you're not getting a guy just to sub for Peavy, but also to shore up the pen. Especially because in 2007 and the first half of 2008, Pena was a plus set-up man. That means he's one more guy who might randomly turn into a late-inning bullpen option next year. As I'll get into more later, most successful bullpens feature at least a guy or two who came out of nowhere to play a key late-inning role. Pena gives you one more reasonable option for one of those break-outs.


I've still got one more thought inspired by this look at the Sox current roster, but it's a bit of a long and multi-dimensional one, and this post is already pretty full of stuff to chew on, so I'll save it for next week (here).


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Your Latest Sox Slugger - Adam Dunn

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Throughout their history, the Sox weren't much of a power-hitting team at all. Some of it was their cavernous park, some of it was a pitching & defense strategy, and some of it was simply long strings of management that didn't develop or try to attain big hitters.

Until Big Frank came along, the best the Sox had for big boppers were a few (but not too many) respectable years out of the likes of Dick Allen and Beltin Bill Melton in the 70s. It was so bad that Melton's 154 homers (over seven seasons) was the team career leader when I was born in 1979. They also had never had a 40-HR hitter until the 90s.

But Frank and a more cozy New Comiskey Park ushered in a new era (helped along by the proliferation of power in the game leaguewide, driven by the shameful steroid era). Frank, Albert Belle, Paulie, Dye, Thome, and recently Quentin have all threatened to lead the league in homers while providing a seamless stretch of middle-of-the-order producers as good as any in baseball.

While the Sox have had their up and downs since the 90s began, the one constant has been at least one, if not two or even three guys in the heart of the lineup fully capable of 40 HRs and 110 RBI.

But heading into 2011, as I detailed in my breakdown of all the position players, the Sox were in a place to not be guaranteed even a single legit, respected middle of the order bat. Thome and Dye were sent packing last year (and really, at this stage of their career are no longer 40-110 threats), Paulie is a coveted free agent, and Quentin is neither untouchable nor guaranteed to be healthy or productive enough to warrant inclusion in that potential 40-110 group.


Enter Adam Dunn. Few players in all of baseball have mashed as productively or steadily as this guy. He's just a pure numbers machine, so that's how I'm gonna break him down:

• 1 - Times over the last 7 seasons he's failed to drive in 100 runs. Just once (when he drove in 92 in 2006). This includes back-to-back 100 RBI years for Washington, in a pitcher's park and on a soft offense. Barring an injury, this guy will be the heart of the order contributor every team needs.
  

• 2 - The number of years since becoming a big league regular that he's failed to play in 158 games. And in one of those exceptions he played 152. Yep, pretty much every single year you can expect Dunn to go out and play nearly every single day. There's an incredible value to that kind of durability.
  

• 3 - Positions Dunn can play aside DH. Word was that Dunn wanted to stay in the NL so he could play in the field, so my guess is that part of the Sox' successful sales pitch is that Dunn was told he'd play some defense. I hope that happens - while he's a subpar defender by every measure, I still buy into the value of getting some guys regular days off in the DH slot w/o losing their bat in the lineup. That Dunn could go out to 1B, left, or even right for 6-7 innings until you bring in your defensive replacement allows the Sox greater use of their DH. Having Dunn semi-regularly involved in the field should be an asset.
  

• 4 - Years on his deal, at just $14M. For a guy who's this hotly desired (he was on everyone's radar last trade deadline and rumored to be going to a ton of teams this off-season), having to only commit to him for 4 years and at the very reasonable amount of $14M per is outstanding. Dunn will be 31 next season and 34 when his deal expires. That's certainly likely to be the tail end of his prime, but his prime nonetheless. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he hits 40 and drives in 110 from start to finish on this contract. And $14M is the basement you can expect to sign a proven slugger in his prime, for sure (that was the number bandied around for the older and far less consistent Paulie).
  

• 5 - Times Dunn has batted below .250. Dunn's game has its holes - one of those is hitting for average. His best season-ending average was .267, so it's not like there's a lot of hope for a fluke good year or two in this regard. The closest thing you can get to an encouraging stat is that he's hit .260 or better in three of the last four seasons. He did have a year down at .215 way back in 2003, but likely pencil him in for .235 to .265 and don't stress over it.
  

• 6 - Years that Dunn's OBA has been over .380. One reason you don't stress over the low average is because he makes up for a lot of those outs by drawing a boatload of walks. Dunn's such a threat that pitchers will gladly work around him. That's huge for the Sox, who will have the type of guys who can drive in runners in their 5th, 6th, and 7th slots thanks to a team with RBI potential at nearly every position.
  

• 7 - The number of seasons he's belted 38+ HRs. Mind you one of the three times he failed to do so was his rookie year, when he had 19 HRs in only 66 games. And another was his third year, when he only played in 116 games and still hit 27. Since then seven straight years of 38+, including each of the last two seasons in Washington's big park. The Cell should treat him very well.
  

• 8 - Times that Dunn has averaged over 1K/G. As mediocre as his average is, Dunn's biggest weakness by far is the huge amount of Ks he racks up. He's a hard-swinger who pitchers can and will beat. But the one reason I'm not too worried about this fact is because of the previously mentioned RBI totals. Ks are no different than any other out when no one's on base or there's two down. But they kill you when you need contact to bring a guy in, especially when your best run producer is up. That Dunn so consistently drives in so many runs, especially these past two seasons in Washington, tells me his Ks aren't having a hugely negative effect on his role as a run-producer.
  

• 9 - I got nothing of great relevance for this number, so I'll use this space to point out that Dunn is a very streaky player. He'll carry the Sox for weeks on end and then be a giant hole in the lineup for the next few weeks. The Sox have a pretty deep and dynamic lineup that should be able to pick up the slack when Dunn does disappear. But I hope Kenny is still working to provide another legit middle of the order bat of some sort. Because if Quentin gets hurt (like he always does) at the same time Dunn goes into the tank, the Sox are gonna be hurting in the heart of the lineup. Give me one more professional bat to throw in there and I think the Sox can overcome those stretches. If not, I fear a team much like last year - very up and down.
  

• 10 - Times he's missed the postseason in 10 seasons. This would be disheartening if he hadn't been buried in small market Cincinnati and slowly rebuilding Washington for most of his career. It's not like he's been a part of a bunch of high expectation disappointments, near misses, or late-season meltdowns. Dunn has just been on teams that were bad from start to finish and nothing he could do was gonna change that. Only one time has he finished on a team who wasn't under .500, and that was only after a late-season trade to the Dbacks three years ago. The pessimist would point out he's never had to deliver under pressure or down the stretch. Me, the eternal optimist, says that Dunn is a guy might be inspired to new heights now that he's surrounded by real talent and part of an organization that's tasted the sweet nectar of a title very recently.
  

So as you can tell, I'm pretty high on this signing. And I haven't even mentioned that Dunn's a lefty. You slot him in at #4 and now you're not as concerned if you have to fill #3, #5, and #6 with righties. And for the Sox, with Rios, Quentin, Beckham, Alexei, Viciedo, and Morel all swinging from the right, that's a pretty comforting piece of knowledge.

I just see so little downside here. Dunn may be up and down throughout the season, but at the end of the year he's gonna have the same numbers as always. He's got not injury history at all and with a contract that takes him only through the age of 34, I don't see a lot of room for decline. On top of all that, for a slugger of Dunn's caliber, $14M is really the bare minimum I would have expected the Sox to have to pay. Especially given that his acquisition didn't require the loss of any significant assets (tho they will have to forfeit their 1st round pick, which may be replace if Paulie leaves anyway).

I'm pretty pumped... this was an outstanding way to start the Hot Stove for the Sox. They still need to find someone to play 1B who won't embarrass himself hitting #3-6. And they need to fill their hole at catcher (I'm not loving this discussion of Olivo - he's produced OK, but isn't it telling that no team has bothered to keep him around for more than a year or two? Your catcher is in command of so much out there, do you really want a guy that a bunch of teams, including mediocre ones, haven't thought was worth investing in?).

I haven't even touched on their pitching, with question marks out of Peavy and his effect on the whole rest of the rotation, what to do with Chris Sale (I say leave him in the pen unless you're sure he's gonna be a frontline starter fairly soon), and how to retool the pen in light of last season's late year collapse.

But so far, so good. Dunn is a worthy heir to the recent line of Sox sluggers Big Frank, Belle (whom I hated, but he did produce numbers, even if they were after we were out of it every year), Paulie, Dye, and Thome. He's gonna slot into this lineup and produce like always and we're gonna be damn happy Southsiders because of it.

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