Another Key Piece... But Now What?

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I'm gonna start by reiterating what I preached on and on about when the Sox first traded for Teahen, and was even more incensed about after they gave him that absolutely indefensible, asinine 3-year extension that pays him $4.75M this year and $5.5M in 2012!?!

This guy is the poster child for mediocrity, doing a bunch of stuff just below average, without doing a single thing well. Yes, Teahen can hit left-handed, play 1B, 3B, LF, and RF, and isn't terrible in speed, power, average, or contact.

But Teahen's not good at a single one of those things - sure he's a lefty, but he's not giving you numbers you're happy about no matter which side they come from. Sure he can play any corner spot - infield or outfield - but he's not much of a defender at any of them (and looked like he really shouldn't be a 3B for more than maybe a game every week or two). And offensively, Teahen's a .260 hitter with little power who will K too much and not walk enough, who isn't exactly threatening Pierre for the team lead in steals.

The reason I'm bringing this all back up is that contract extension is looking SO painful in the face of what we're dealing with today. At best Teahen is a 1B-3B-LF-RF bench guy. I'd say he's probably comparable to a Kotsay or Blum, both of whom will make around $1-$1.5M this year. So Teahen is essentially pissing away $3.5M of Sox money each of the next two years that they desperately could have used elsewhere.

Now for some clubs, this would be only a mild annoyance. Take the Yanks or BoSox, whose payrolls are strictly based on how much money the owners want to make that year. For them, if they need that $3.5M to get a key reliever or middle infielder to put them over the top, the owners will just shrink the profits they'll make with the hope of recouping it due to a more successful team.

For other clubs, like the Cubs or Orioles, you're not really close to contending anyway, so no $3.5M piece is really making a discernible difference on the final outcome of your 2011 season anyway. So why care?

But the White Sox? That $3.5M is the difference between a revolving door of unready prospects and washed up journeymen blowing key games out of your pen, and a steady, proven veteran reliever getting the ball to your set-up men on the way to another big W.


Or at least, that's what I would have thought before yesterday. The Sox payroll was reportedly tapped out, with every last dime and creative maneuver already utilized to bring Paulie and AJ back while still adding Dunn to the fold. Holding tight seemed to be the best option, with subtraction a possibility.

And that was fine, as the team looked fairly close to where you needed it to be, and with the exception of Teahen, almost all the money was very well-spent. The one issue - a glaring hole (or maybe two) still remained in the bullpen, a place that you simply cannot win w/o being strong. And a place that $3.5M can make all the difference.

But late Wednesday, the Sox somehow found another $4M per to bring aboard Jesse Crain. Not sure how, not sure what this will mean going forward, all I know is that Crain fits the bill perfectly for what the Sox needed most, and the Sox management team somehow made it happen despite all indications that there was no more money to be spent.

Crain has been one of the many seemingly interchangeable arms that come out of the Twins pen and lock down games, especially against the Sox. He's a 29-year old right-hander who has had bouts of inconsistency due to somewhat iffy control and not over-powering stuff, but yet still has been a crucial part of the Twin's relief staff since he first came up in 2004.

Crain's shown that he's good for a 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 50 Ks and 25 walks in 60 IP. Those numbers aren't stellar, but they're pretty good and can work for a #2 or #3 righty out of the pen. Especially because Crain has often been much better than that - it's just that he'll struggle for stretches, as he did when an injury in 2007 robbed him of a bit of his effectiveness for a few seasons.

Now the thing with relievers is you never know what you're going to get. Linebrink showed that - after being one of baseball most dominant set-up men for a number of years, he struggled to be effective after the first few months of each season on the Southside, putting up disastrous 2nd halves every year he was here.

However, Linebrink made his mark in the NL and throwing out of PetCo in San Diego, the league's most pitcher-friendly park. On the other hand, while the MetroDome is less hitter-friendly than the Cell, Crain's been equally effective on the road over his career and, much more importantly, has proven he can get it done in the AL Central.

Still, there's a little bit of caution here in that before last year, Crain hadn't had a WHIP below 1.27 since his first full year in the bigs in 2005. For a guy who's not a high strike-out arm (far less than a K/IP over his career), that's a lot of hitters for a reliever to be putting on base. And before last year, he hadn't been all that effective since the 2007 injury, with an ERA in the high 3s or worse.

But having raised the requisite red flags, I'm still high on this signing for two reasons. First, as I keep saying, the Sox most definitely needed another proven veteran arm to have any chance of success in 2011. They still aren't perfect out there (I'd like to see one more arm with some late-inning upside and Pena brought back into the mix), but at least they're close enough that you can hope the rest can be cobbled together off the scrap heap or out of the system.

Because make no mistake, Crain's got as much ability to be a strong 7th/8th inning guy as anyone out there. Before his injury in 2006, he'd been pretty lights out to start his career. And beginning about midway through 2009, Crain started to look like that pitcher once again. He finished that season almost untouchable in the second half, struggled a bit to start 2010, and then returned to being one of Gardenhire's most reliable late-inning options.

Seeing those pair of second half surges, I went and looked at Crain's career splits and was impressed by what I saw - this is a guy who gets stronger as the year goes on. Year in and year out, he consistently seems to stumble here and there in the first half before putting it all together around mid-season.

Over his career, Crain's posted a pretty poor 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the 1st half. So know that Crain might seem a bit of a bust early on. I'm sure the fans will probably get on him about this, but I hope Ozzie is able to show some patience and confidence in this guy, because the Sox need a reliever who can get it done down the stretch.

The way the Sox pen has fallen apart pretty much every year under Ozzie, it's nice to have a guy like Crain who will be there to pick up some of the slack. In second halves over his career, he's posted a sparkling 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. If Crain repeats that kind of down-then-up performance in 2011, I'll be very happy with this move. I think it'll go a long way to giving us the late-season stability in the pen, the lack of which helped tanked good Sox teams in 2006 and 2010.

The second reason I'm high on this signing? Because Kenny is on record, in response to the Quentin rumors, that he would not be weakening one part of his team to improve another. So if he's not looking to deal CQ because of how it'd hurt the lineup (and all the latest reports affirm that Kenny respectfully listened to overtures but made no effort to part with CQ), you've got to figure he also won't be looking to deal Ed Jackson (as some have theorized might be the follow-up move to get the payroll back to levels the Sox have previously proven comfortable with).

And nor should Kenny be considering something like that. Even if Peavy is declared fit to pitch tomorrow, would you really be confident in him getting around 30 starts this year? And as durable as Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle have been, it's rare for a team to avoid injuries to all four of its top starters.

Given that you've built a team capable to win this year, that you can't hope to do so w/o strong starting pitching up and down the rotation, and that you're already taxing your depth with Peavy's uncertainty, the Sox are in no place to consider dealing Ed Jackson (or any of their other starter) unless they're just blown away.


So where does that leave the Sox? Apparently at a payroll approaching $125M (after assumed arbitration salaries are included). Is that sustainable? Since the winning the World Series, the Sox have been around $100-$110M. Now they did spike up to over $120 in 2008, but since then they've lost a bit of the revenue bounce they got from the title, have seen an epic recession, and don't have any salary offsets coming in (such as the $3.5M the Dodgers gave the Sox for Pierre, which they Sox then gave to the Braves to cover Linebrink).

Assuming what Kenny says is true, that they aren't moving key pieces, that leaves really only two salaries the Sox can hope to shed at this point - the above-mentioned Teahen's $4.75M (and another $5.5M next year) and Viciedo's $2.25M (and $3.25M next year). Even that's only $6M in savings this year (over the min level guys you'll still need to fill out your bench) and it's extremely unlikely anyone is gonna agree to take on all that wasted money on Teahen unless you're giving up a pretty good prospect or sending over cash (which defeats the purpose).

But maybe that's what's gonna happen. Maybe Kenny does part with a quality prospect in order to move Teahen off the books, under the thinking that it's no different than trading a quality prospect for a reliever (as Teahen's money could be seen as used for Crain). And maybe Viciedo is shipped out, bringing back that very same quality prospect.

Maybe it means pairing Viciedo with Teahen to some team with a little bit of money who loves Viciedo's upside. Not unreasonable, given how Viciedo raked last year in AAA - .274 AVG and .493 SLG in 343 ABs - and the bigs - .308 AVG, .519 SLG in 104 ABs. This kid might just be a great young power-hitting 3B (or more likely, 1B) who's cheap and has loads of upside. That might be worth taking on some garbage salary in Teahen for some team.

And it would make perfect sense for the Sox, who don't seem to have a place for Viciedo moving forward. Konerko and Dunn have 1B/DH locked up, while moving Dunn to LF isn't an option because of Pierre and whomever takes over the leadoff spot (say Jordan Danks) in 2012. It's questionable whether Viciedo can play fulltime 3B, especially on a team that is built around defense, not to mention how the Sox seem pretty committed to Morel anyway.

The Sox could keep him in AAA - Viciedo will only be 22 on Opening Day - but he's getting a bit expensive for that now and that's still only a temporary solution. Worst case he takes a step back and loses all value - while still costing you money - and best case is that he hits so well that you can't keep him down for much longer.

However, maybe that temporary solution is worth it, as who knows what the future brings. Morel hit like crap in his big league stint last year, and as we've seen with Crede and Fields, there's no guarantee that he'll be a solid player any time soon. An injury to Konerko or Dunn or even Quentin might make a hot-hitting Viciedo a perfect short term stop gap. Or an injury or ineffective play elsewhere might make Viciedo the perfect mid-season trade piece.


I've got to be honest, I have no idea where these Sox are heading from here this off-season. I laid out my thoughts for the hitters in my little position-by-position state of the union and touched on what I thought the Sox should do about the pitching in my summary post after the Dunn, Konerko, and AJ moves.

But at this point, the Sox have gone in such a different direction from what I originally thought and put themselves in such an unexpected position that I can't really say what the next moves Kenny will be making are. Maybe nothing. Maybe he just finds some crap heap types to compete to round out the pen and bench and 6th starter spot and lets Spring Training determine the make-up of the final roster.

If that's the case, if the Sox really are going to keep their payroll where it is now and hold tight with their roster and prospects as is, I think I'm ready to declare this off-season a success. The questions that remain are ones you can hope to "figure out" in Spring Training, such as pen, bench, and rotation depth.

Otherwise, you can look at the team you have now and say it has pretty much everything you need to be a World Series champ. Speed, run production, defense, bench depth, stellar rotation, and a strong pen. Fill in the depth pieces with those random guys Kenny and Ozzie are good at finding and why couldn't we be watching another South Side parade next October?


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