WAKE UP, CLAIRE!

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Every time I come upon an insane level of deliberate obtuseness, I think back to the original Mission Impossible (they're coming out with a 4th, by the way, even tho all but the first were horrible) and the scene early in the movie where the hot chick with the great lips stumbles back to the safe house to meet Tom Cruise. She's refusing to accept the reality of their situation, that they've been sold out and everyone's dead. And delivering a line in an insane way that only a truly insane person can, Cruise screams at her with the perfect insane face, "WAKE UP, CLAIRE!"

Annoyingly, no one else really remembers that scene or line very well, but damnit, it fits a lot of situations, especially as a sports fan. How many times do you just want to (or actually do) scream at your TV or radio or computer when an athlete or more often coach/front office guy does something so incredibly stupid, yet so obviously avoidable?

The Sports Guy talks about how every team needs a VP of Common Sense, someone to be the one to take a step back and ask, "wait, what are we about to do here?" when making those big decisions that fans and pundits immediately jump on as awful and just as immediately prove themselves to be so.

Personally I'd expand the concept beyond just "VP of Common Sense" to "Non-Team/Industry-Affiliated VP of Common Sense." Of course any actual front office guy would laugh at this concept, but that's because they are idiots. Every institution in the world should have someone like this because every institution suffers from group think and institutional blindness to some level.

Sports teams are especially guilty of this, being run by such a small, exclusive community of front office executives who've spent their whole lives within the sport. So it should be obvious that every organization should have someone who is knowledgeable on their team, knowledgeable on their sport, but in no way an insider. Not a writer, not someone who's worked for teams, not someone who's played the game professionally. Just a very well-versed, well-educated, intelligent, dedicated fan.

Like any position, you'd check resumes, interview, and then hire them on for the position. But they'd remain wholly independent of the team, not having anything to do with the inner-workings. They wouldn't be in on how the decisions are made, nor would they get input or info directly from the organization. All of their knowledge and insight would come from outside, independent sources. The VP's connection to the organization would be limited to just two things.

First, the team would bring all semi-significant decisions, after they've made them but before they've executed them, to the VP-CS. The team would lay out their thinking and then ask if any warning bells are going off. Is some part of their reasoning incorrect? Have they missed something? Are there better options they didn't consider? And so on.

Second, the VP would be empowered to speak up when he sees something that he feels the team is missing, and the team would be obligated to give a rational, thought-out justification in response to the VP's point. By constantly questioning what so often is just accepted as given, he'd force the organization to justify everything it does with actual benefits, rather than just blindly accepting that "we've done this this way for this long, so that's just what we do."

Finally, after about 3 seasons, the VP will have learned so much about the organization as they justify their decisions to him that he'd invariably begin to become part of the group think. So you'd cycle a new guy in during the last year of the old guy's tenure to get some fresh perspective and energy, while also having a guiding hand to keep the process efficient and the transition smooth.


So why the obscure Tom Cruise reference and the fleshing out of another writer's idea in the first Baines Herald in way too long (in my defense, I've written a few of these but then scrapped them when I didn't feel good that I had properly fleshed out the article's points... only to see them not become timely and need to be re-worked from scratch)? Because think of how much better off the Sox would be today if they had a VP of Common Sense the last few seasons:

"Wait, you want to claim Alex Rios and the $60M over 5 years he's got left on his deal? Let's just say this was the off-season, would you guys really make that kind of free agent offer to this guy? That doesn't sound like the Sox. Especially because I don't think anyone would. Why don't we pass on the claim and see if the Jays won't take on a big chunk of the salary come this off-season. What's the worst case - they say no and we've still got that same $60M over 5 we'd have given to him to spend on someone probably even better."

"Wait, you guys want to give this Mark Teahen a 3-year, $14M extension? Even before he's had an at-bat with us? Even tho his fairly long career to this point has been consistently mediocre? Even tho he's under our arbitration control (at a reasonable price) this year? Why don't we wait, see what he can do under our tutelage? If we're right and he is a diamond in the rough, we still have all season to re-up with him before he walks. But in a market where $5M a year buys some very good players, why would we commit to three years worth of that for a guy who so far has been only worth a million or two?"

"Wait, your plan is to give Mark Kotsay, a guy who hasn't played everyday for over 3 years, who has always hit 1st, 2nd, 7th, or 9th, about 400+ at-bats as your #5 hitter? I'm cool with this rotate-the-DH concept you pitched, but that was before you explained that to make it work, you'd need Kotsay to morph into a run-producer after 13 big league seasons as a table-setter.

If you want me to sign off on this no-DH thing, then either find another guy in your line-up to hit #5 or bring in a different lefty who actually can do that job for 400 ABs. And while we're on the subject, don't try to sell me on Andruw Jones as the other side of that platoon. I love platoons, I love using the DH to keep your guys fresh, but like anything else, this system is limited by the personnel, and right now you are missing the proper personnel. Both those guys are good bench depth, but even combined they should not be getting everyday at-bats. Come on guys - these two were both waived in the last year or two."


And then this season... oh this season... my would the VP of Common Sense be earning his paycheck now:

"I didn't say anything after the first month as slumps happen and Rios and Dunn have both shown that they will get into them, but also eventually get out of them. But when May came and went and both still sucked, I told you it was time to do something different. I even rolled out the old cliche - the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result. Playing them every day in roughly the same batting spots was idiotic. It was clear both were mentally lost and more at-bats weren't helping in the slightest. In the meantime, they were killing our team, who by then had finally gotten their defense and pitching together.

As June was finishing up and both STILL sucked, I pointed to the 6-game stretch in NL parks as a perfect opportunity to sit Dunn for an extended stretch. Throw in the off days and then a continued benching for the final homestand before the All-Star break and we could have bought Dunn almost 3 weeks off and only lost him for 7 DH games. Rios could have worked the same way - sit him for those 6 NL games, use him as pinch runner, pinch hitter, defensive replacement. That stuff is very valuable to have in NL parks. Then bench him for that home stand and let him enjoy his 4-day All Star break away.

Now, it's almost the end of July. We're talking almost FOUR straight months and 100 games of these guys being the worst hitters in all of baseball. I checked - there are only a handful of guys with 150 plate appearances this year who have a lower OPS than Dunn and Rios. And they all are defensive middle infielders, catchers, or broken shells of 3Bs. They are not making over $12M and expected to hit in the middle of their teams' orders.

WAKE UP, CLAIRE! You can no longer argue that letting them play through it is a reasonable solution - it is 100% proven to be a failed strategy. There is no denying it now. Furthermore, logic even shows that we have hit a point where we are in a NO-LOSE situation by sitting these guys for 2+ weeks and using other alternatives. Let's take a look at the possible outcomes of sitting Dunn and Rios everyday for 2 weeks, playing Lillibridge and Viciedo in their stead:

-Outcome 1, Lillibridge and Viciedo are horrible, Dunn and Rios return and are still horrible. Result: Tie.

We're no worse off than if Dunn and Rios just continue to play horrible with everyday at-bats, which again, at this point in time, is what we have to assume to be the case moving forward, given the nearly 4 months and 100 games of evidence. This is the worst case scenario and we break even... says something, eh?

-Outcome 2, Lillibridge and Viciedo are average or better, Dunn and Rios return and are still horrible. Result: WINNER!

Even just an average Lillibridge and Viciedo will contribute much more than the horrible Dunn/Rios combo (which, again, we have to assume is what we will get, given, again, the nearly 4 freakin months and 100 games of evidence). That means we might win a few more games over these next two weeks, more if Lillibridge and Viciedo play well (both have shown flashes of ability to do just that at the big league level). And these extra wins could be huge in this tight race. Plus, now we know that we've got viable alternatives moving forward, so we can more confidently sit Dunn and Rios down the stretch.

Maybe we even sit them the whole rest of the way, using them as bench options. We're pretty close to first with these guys killing us every day - why couldn't we win the division with them not killing us and instead getting just average big league production from Lillibridge and Viciedo?

-Outcome 3, Lillibridge and Viciedo do anything (horrible to incredible), Dunn and Rios return from their time off now performing at least within expectations. Result: WINNER!

Yet again, we've got to assume Dunn/Rios will suck, cause anything else marks us as blindly idiotic, so we're not losing anything if Lillibridge and Viciedo do crap the bed. But holy lord, what if getting some true time off is what these guys need? Not a few days over the All-Star break, where coming back to your struggles is right around the corner (come on, we've all taken weekend vacations... we know how impending that Monday return to work hangs over everything). But a real, long, the end seems so far off type of getaway that really puts a clear distinction between the time you left and what you return to.

It is very simple, fellas. In their current mental state, these two have proven, beyond any doubt, that they are incapable of hitting big league pitching with any sustained success. To continue to play them everyday expecting that to somehow change would be like playing me every day and expecting me to learn to be a big leaguer.

They aren't going to luck into a string of success to get their confidence back, no more so than you'd expect me to luck into a string of success to prove a reasonable major league hitter. They also aren't going to luck into a mechanical fix or proper approach any more than I'd luck into the proper mechanics and approach to suddenly be a big league hitter. Not at this point - not 4 months in, not 100 games through the year.

So please, let's quit killing the team, let's start seeing what kind of alternatives we actually have on hand, AND at the same time, let's see if doing something drastically different than what has failed for 4 straight months and 100 games might finally rescue two players who absolutely could and should be major assets to not only a division title, but a World Series Title as well."


Final point - with the trade deadline less than two weeks away, the Sox have given themselves no alternatives to Dunn and Rios' continued struggles beyond hoping they figure it out or that Lillibridge and Viciedo could be viable everyday players. If in mid June (which would have given Dunn and Rios plenty of time to prove they can't hit their way out of this), the Sox had turned to Lillibridge and Viciedo, they would have had over a month to see if either of those two could be counted on for regular ABs AND whether or not Dunn and Rios could return from some extended time off to be regular contributors.

And if not, the Sox then could have made some moves at the deadline. Because damnit, this team has every single chance to win a freakin World Series title, something that rarely comes around for any big league team that doesn't spend $180M a year, a la Boston and New York. Take a look at the pieces they have in place and it suddenly becomes clear just how MUCH Dunn and Rios are uniquely responsible for turning this club into a sub .500 team.

Last night they showed a stat that says the Sox have the fewest errors in the bigs - that's impressive, especially given how horrible defensively they were to start the year. And it's not like that's some misleading, antiquated stat - errors are still a key factor to success. Plus, the Sox have average to good range pretty much around the field. Paulie and Quentin don't move a ton, but the three-headed monster at 3B, Alexei, Beckham, Rios, and Pierre all can cover ground. Defense, which is so crucial to pitching (in fact, it's the new OBA as far as statheads and front offices are concerned), is clearly a strength for this Sox team.

Somehow in an era where most teams can't find 4 starting pitchers, we've got 6. Sure they aren't all consistent, but it's still 6 guys throwing well enough to be a #4 or better in any rotation in the bigs. And 6 guys who've shown an ability to be dominant for long stretches. That means we can overcome injuries, deal with ineffectiveness, and keep our guys nice and fresh so that come the playoffs, we've got 4 arms who are dealing, giving us a good shot to win every night in October.

Maybe the most important piece to any playoff run is the bullpen and holy balls has this pen come together after a terrible start. Santos has only factored into 3 losses (two blown saves and a tie game he lost) in his 42 outings this year. Thornton, who was SO victimized by poor defense (entering this year he had given up 1 unearned run in his whole career... this year he's given up 11!), is back to the dominant lefty he's always been for the Sox. Crain, traditionally a 2nd half pitcher, had the best 1st half numbers of anyone on the team.

Sale has quietly spent the past two months being the beast we all thought he was. Ohman is even more forgotten about, yet has been nasty steady as a spot lefty and garbage man. Bruney has done much the same from the right hand side. Even this new kid Santiago has thrown 5.1 innings of beauty work, with only a hit and walk against.

That just leaves the lineup, and if you subtract the HUGE negative presences of Dunn and Rios, it actually isn't too bad. Pierre, always a slow starter, has gotten his OBA up to .333 (about what you'd expect from him) and is coming thru with big hits at big times. Alexei has settled in to the 2nd spot, scoring and driving in runs at a respectable clip. Konerko has been an absolute beast in the middle, bringing power, clutchness, and professional hitting to every at-bat. Quentin has done enough to be a very respectable middle of the order guy, driving in runs, hittin bombs, and getting on base.

Beckham's been all over the map, with a horrid April and June around a very good May and now July, but overall his .255 average and 7 jacks aren't too bad for a bottom of the order guy, especially one who is a notorious 2nd half hitter. And while AJ has no home run stroke any more, I'll take his 20 extra base hits and .290 average as a catcher. The three-headed monster at 3B has not been good, but it's fine as your worst offensive position (which it should be on this team), with each guy doing a little of something to warrant big league at-bats. Lillibridge has been an outstanding super-sub, with impressive OBA and power, even if his average has cooled, while Castro does plenty as a back-up backstop.


Yep, all that's missing is offensive contributions from your DH and CFer. That's why it's so simple - you move Lillibridge to an everyday job, knowing that he'll be inconsistent but give you more OBA and power than Rios. Rios becomes your bench OF for the next 2-3 weeks, giving him time to get a whole new perspective and put the first 100 games behind him. Dunn becomes a bench hitter, again taking advantage of time away from the everyday slog to change his thought process. Viciedo steps into your DH role, which yes, makes you heavily right-handed. But that brings us back to our VP of common sense...

"So why is it that we have to have a lefty in the middle of the order? I know in an ideal world it'd be preferred. I'm not talking ideal worlds - I'm talking our team here. Why is our strategy to put ANY left-handed bat into the middle of the order instead of some reasonable right-handed alternatives?

Last year we did that with Kotsay and it was an epic disaster. The guy had his worst year as a pro and our DH spot was the least productive in the AL. This year Ozzie continues to run Dunn out in the middle of the order instead of moving him and Rios down to the 7-8-9 spots, where they'd do the least damage. And I gotta assume some of what's keeping the front office from elevating Viciedo into Dunn's spot is that we'd have yet another righty to put with Paulie and Konerko in the middle of the order.

But come on - Viciedo hit .308 and slugged .520 in over 100 big league at-bats last year. He's on pace for 27 bombs and 110 RBI at AAA this year, hitting a stellar .317. He's freakin ready. And we freakin need him.

And, god forbid we end up too righty-heavy, ya know, like our 2000 team, which won 95 games despite having a total joke of a starting rotation (Sirotka was in the high 3s, Parque, Baldwin, and Eldred all were in the 4s, with Wells and Garland putting up 6. ERAs as part-time #5s). Or the 2005 team, which had the ghost of Carl Everett as the token lefty in the second half, hitting a whopping .228 w/ a .386 SLG % (for reference, Juan Pierre has a career .364 SLG %).

Come on, guys - you're making decisions that flat ignore the evidence at hand and relying on strategic notions that don't apply to your personnel. And it's turning what should be a World Series favorite into a frustrating after-thought for the sixth straight time since the title team."


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