That Light? Just Another Train

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So after a nice sweep of the Ms, all in dramatic fashion, the Sox hit the road with a chance to make some hay. The Rangers are beatable and while the Yanks are tough, taking two of three from them feels like a sweep of most other teams. Especially on the road - a 4-2 trip would look great, a 3-3 would even have its upside. As I said in my last post, maybe we were starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Nope - that light was just another train coming straight at us. Twice the Sox blow winnable game 1s and then watch a starter get bombed early in another game. The hole we've dug ourselves grows, worsened by the Twins and Tigers strong play.

I can find upside - I always can. But at this point it only frustrates me. If you told me Paulie would have his best start ever, that Andruw Jones would be everything we could have hoped and more, that Rios would be flashing speed and power and overall look respectable, I'd have figured our offense would be solid. If you told me that Danks would be a straight up nasty Ace, that Jenks, Thornton, and Putz would combine to blow only two games in 30 outings, I'd say we'd be in good shape.

But pretty much everything else has been bad. Buehrle, Floyd, and Peavy, all guys who've won 17+ games in their careers, have five quality starts in their 16 games. A quality start simply means giving up 3 runs or less in 6 IP. Not the tallest order, but actually a pretty good measure of whether or not your starters are getting the job done. 2/3 of the time, the Sox Big 3 are not.

And the offense?!? Pierre, Beckham, and Carlos were supposed to be a dynamic top third of the order, maybe as good as any in baseball. They're hitting .200 as a group. Alexei? How about you stay wherever it is you make your off-season home until mid-May, then join the team? This is especially infuriating because the guy brought in to take the pressure off early - Vizquel - is barely hitting .100. Yes, one hundred.

AJ and Kotsay - you guys are veteran lefties in a righty-heavy lineup that faces a righty-laden division. You were supposed to be money in the bank solid. Sure, no one was expecting greatness, but at least get up there and do the job here and there, make other pitchers respect you, as you have for years. Instead - you're both under .200!

So what now? I have no idea. I always wish Ozzie would play more aggressive, so I'll throw that out there. People love to whine that Ozzie can't be aggressive without base-runners, but I think that's definitely one of the times it's most needed. More guys bunting to get on, take advantage of those few base-runners to try to manufacture at least one run. When the bats aren't going, then look to the things that you can control.

But don't take that as a reason for the Sox offensive issues - it's not. The Sox run as much as any team and while I think they should bunt and hit-and-run more, that's the kind of stuff that gets you from OK to solid, or good to great. It doesn't get you from horrendous to respectable.

You can't sit guys to solve this issue - the bench players aren't any better. You don't have much for young bucks in the minors ready to make an impact - at least not enough of one to warrant rushing them up. Trades are tough, both cause it's early and because you're fairly maxed out in your payroll. I could see a deal happen to add talent, but only later in the year, if the Sox seem to be contenders. But to save this now - not happening. And firing Walker doesn't seem to be an option (or else he'd have been let go a few seasons back), nor do I think it will have much of an effect.


My only idea, and it's worked before - time to juggle that lineup, all-out. Not a few moves, a full-on make-ove. Pierre has already been demoted from the #1 slot. Ozzie made it clear this is temporary, as it should be, but it was a good first step. Change things up, hope for a spark, both for Pierre and the lineup. I'm not sure who should lead-off, but I'm thinking someone else that is struggling. Maybe Alexei. Maybe a change of role will do him some good too.

But don't stop there. Beckham has got to move out of that #2 slot. I'm pushing AJ up there. That's what Ozzie did in 2008 and it worked great. Yet for some unknown reason, he went away from after the season and has never returned (despite the offense struggling much of last year and again this season). Why? Beckham has been just OK in that position and the offense has never clicked since AJ left there. Plus, AJ's been brutal - maybe up at #2, in front of a pair of boppers, asked to hit behind guys and move runners over, AJ finds his confidence again.

#3 and #4 are easy - Jones and Paulie. #5 - Screw lefty-righty, I'm going with Rios. I like having a little speed in the heart of the order - with Rios and Jones in there, you aren't clogging the bases as often. And this way you've got three straight hitters who are feeling good these days.

#6 - Teahen has been mediocre as I figured, but at least he's getting on base and bats lefty. #7 and #8 - Quentin and Beckham. Two guys who need to get the pressure off, to just worry about themselves and nothing else. Finally, finish up with Juan #9, until he gets it back together (which I assure you, he will).


I make those moves tonight, to start the home stand, and I stick with them for a while. Let guys settle in, see how they react. Nothing else is working.

But I don't think Ozzie does it. He's changed some things, but not enough and too haphazardly. Like in 2008, he's got to shake this up in a big way, in a way that his players know is going to be for a while. Throw that lineup above out there for the next few weeks, see if you can't take advantage of the homestand to get going again, at least offensively. Then just hope that with some runs on the board, your pitchers aren't pressing as much and can get into a groove.

I mean, what have they got to lose?

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Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

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So what was that sweep last weekend? Was it just another in a long line of ups and downs? Great Opening Day... followed by four straight losses. Take three of four, including one against the Twins to avoid the sweep and two in Toronto, where we never win... only to lose six of the next seven (including a sweep by the lowly Indians).

Is this high just a prelude to a low? Are we going to head down to Texas and watch the balls fly off the Rangers bats? Are we going to limp into NYC and get destroyed on what essentially is the national stage by the Yanks?

Or, were those three wins, all in dramatic fashion, the start of what I've believed this team was capable of this season? I said that even in their horrendous 5-11 start, they'd shown us a few things to hang our hats on. Well, was this past weekend the Sox way of adding a few more hooks to the front hall?

Because it wasn't just three Ws. It wasn't even just three Ws against a solid opponent (the Mariners were an attractive pick in the AL West this year). It was three winners that involved clutch hitting and clutch pitching. Sure, Putz and Jenks made it a bit more dramatic than it had to be, but that did open the door for some much-needed heroics.

The fact is that the Sox not only needed improvement in the standings, they needed some improvement in the confidence department. And the way they were tested all weekend long yet came through every single time had to do wonders for the players involved and the team as a whole.

Friday - Floyd has what should be a strong outing (if the pen does its job), a nice bounce-back from his last meltdown start. Thornton shows that he truly is a superman, the kind of guy Ozzie can turn to in the most desperate times to give them what they need, when he follows up Putz' granny with 2.1 scoreless. Andruw Jones continues to prove he's a legit middle of the order bat, something we desperately need with Quentin scuffling and being such a mental midget (everyone talks about how he is just so hard on himself when he struggles - sorry brother, that's just another way of being a giant puss. Man up and learn how to deal with the inevitable ups and downs of being a baseball player already).

Saturday - Freddy throws a gem, re-establishing some faith that he could be a 15-win type pitcher this year. And Rios, maybe the guy the Sox most needed to get going early, comes up with a huge bomb to bail Jenks out. Sure, Jenks had to feel bad about what he did, but when the team wins, it's hard to get too down on yourself. And that will help Jenks keep his head and confidence, two of the biggest factors to quality relief work.

Sunday - Danks adds another line to his resume as a legit front line ace, going 8 strong. Jenks, while a bit scary, gets some redemption in securing a tough one-run save. And Paulie hits a jack in his third straight game, quietly re-establishing himself as a bat that pitchers have to fear. What really makes Paulie's jacks great - all three were bigtime for the Sox. Friday's comes in the 6th of a 3-2 game. Saturday's comes in the 9th, after Jenks gave up two, to change the whole tenor of the inning. And Sunday's comes in the bottom of the 8th, the score knotted at 8.


So what am I seeing with this Sox at this point? I'm seeing five starters I have faith in, with the most troubling being a guy who won a Cy Young a few years back. My buddy Kramer is real concerned about Jake, having heard an interview where he sounded very unsure about his mechanics and what Coop has been trying to do with him. Supposedly he's just going to go back to what worked for him in 07, proper form be damned. My thought - he's got too much of a track record for it to be a major concern. Especially because he's not looked on as the savior - the Sox have enough other arms so Peavy can struggle for a bit and the team can still win until he rounds into form. And then - look out!

I see a pen with a lot of different arms who can get it done. Don't be overly influenced by a few bad outings here or there. Obviously Thornton is a beast, Santos is a pleasant surprise, but those runs Jenks gave up on Saturday - the first two he's allowed since the second game of the year. Same with Putz' runs on Friday - only the second time all season he's been scored upon. Linebrink is repeating the first half dominance he showed the past two years. Even Randy and Pena are putting up blank frames more often then not.

And I see an offense that's starting to show some bright spots. Obviously Andruw Jones is the most notable - not just for his good numbers, but because few of us (I was leading the charge, for sure) expected this. Given his borderline Hall of Fame resume to this point, the fact that he's producing is a big asset for the Sox. Along with Paulie, it gives opposing pitchers two proven bats they will respect every time through the order. Even if these two don't get a hit, Druw and Pulie are gonna force those pitchers to work hard not only when they're facing them, but when they're facing the guys ahead of them. If they're going solidly, they really are game-changing presences in the lineup.

Teahen and Rios have also established themselves as feel good stories. Rios is hitting well enough, flashing some good power, and definitely moving when he's on the bases. Throw in his good play in center and this guy is the asset we hoped he'd be... and I still believe he can give us more. But I'll be content with what we have, cause Rios has tantalized for too long for me to get greedy here.

As for Teahen, you gotta love what he's given you so far. It's early, but he's walking a bunch to keep his OBA high and hittin the ball for extra bases to get his slugging up. If he finishes in the neighborhood of the AVG, OBA, and SLG he's got now, I'll be eating a lot of crow. Quietly, his OPS is about as good as you'll find out of all but the most elite 3Bs.


So yes, in reading all of that, it's fair to remember that I tend to be Mr. Positive when it comes to my Sox. Don't get me wrong, I take their losses as hard as anyone, but maybe because of that, I'm always trying to find the moral victories, the silver linings. Baseball is SUCH a long season, if you're playing well, you have to figure that eventually you'll get the bounces. If a guy is hitting hard liners that are getting caught, I know he's gonna soon break out. If a starter is putting up quality starts but losing, I know he's on the brink of a string of Ws.

That's how I feel about this Sox team. I think they've shown me more than enough to believe that the bounces will start coming their way (as they did all last weekend) and we'll start winning all these series we've been losing (the sweep was the first series the Sox have won all year).

I do have my concerns - they are making some small mistakes that they can't continue. They still aren't hitting enough in the clutch, earlier they were making costly errors, and the pitchers haven't always attacked hitters when they needed to. And Ozzie, while being more aggressive this year, still hasn't shown the balls necessary to play the type of small ball that his team is capable of, that takes the game to the other team.

Case in point - in a 2-2 tie in the 7th on Sunday, Alexei comes up with Teahen on second and no outs, and doesn't even attempt a bunt. Instead he swings three times, makes contact but doesn't move Teahen over, Pierre follows up with a hard liner that finds a defender, and Beckham flies out deep to end any hope of taking the lead that frame.

What the hell is that? Alexei is hitting like crap. He's not a terrible bunter - not great, but he does attempt them enough that he should be a must-bunt that whole at-bat. Even w/ two strikes - all that matters is getting that guy over, and bunting is the most sure-fire way to do it. Why the hell stop at two strikes? Are the odds of a hit or ball behind the runner really that much better when swinging w/ two strikes after trying to bunt then just trying to bunt again? Why is the threat of an out when bunting w/ two strikes such a big deal, but not swinging with two strikes?

What makes Ozzie's decision that much more unforgiveable is that Pierre and Beckham are both struggling as well - the odds of one of these guys getting a hit to bring in Teahen are minimal right now. However, both are good contact hitters - have Alexei move Teahen over, then see if Pierre can't sneak a ball through a pulled up infield or give it enough of a ride to bring Teahen home.

Or maybe the RP tries to be too fine w/ Pierre and he works a walk. Great, now you've got Beckham, another strong contact hitter with a bit more power sitting up there trying to drive in Teahen from third, with a speedy Pierre on first to distract the pitcher and possibly take away the double play.

And if you don't have faith Alexei can bunt, then bring in Vizquel, a guy who's made a career of it. Sure you might lose a bit of range at short, but he's definitely more sure-handed and whatever, give me the sure-thing of a bunt rather than the maybe of a future hit in that perfect spot that Vizquel can't get to that Alexei would have.

Bit of an aside, but I hate how managers over-value the longterm in a game. If it's a close, low-scoring affair late and you've got a shot to score, take it every single time. Runs are a bitch to come by in those situations, who cares if you have to sacrifice a hint of defense or hitting? Get that good bunter in the lineup. Put that speedier runner on the bases. Get that strong arm into the outfield.

Even if it's early, don't pass on a chance to get one run across as you look for a big inning. One run early gives your offense and your pitcher a bit of confidence and puts the pressure on the other team. Bunt that guy along, try to steal that base. That one early run really can change everything - take it every time.

Especially because when you take the game to the other team in an effort to get one run, a lot of times you end up getting a bunch of runs. That bunt turns into an error on the 3B. The hit and run creates a first and third situation. That runner trying to steal 2nd leads to a walk. The pitcher trying to keep a runner scoring from third gives up an extra base hit.

My Brother was saying the same thing - Ozzie just has to commit to being aggressive in every single situation. Quit picking and choosing your spots - make that team know that if they allow a runner on, Ozzie is gonna bring it to you. Amp up that pressure on the opposition - make them know that they're gonna have to play the perfect game, because the Sox will never sit back and allow the pitcher to work his way out of jams.

It's scary for a pitcher to face a stacked lineup, knowing that allowing even one base-runner might be the start of an onslaught of runs. Well, if you aren't the Yanks or BoSox, you've got to find another way to scare the other team. The Sox should emulate the Twins and Rays, who do it by playing a well-executed aggressive game that looks to capitalize on every single opportunity that comes up.

That creates a pressure-filled situation for a team - pitching, hitting, defense - to not make any mistakes. Teams start trying to be perfect and that actually creates more mistakes. And those mistakes become magnified by your aggressive play, leading to big innings. You can't watch baseball for any significant amount of time without realizing how mental the game is. To be a good manager, you've got to win the mental battle. Sitting back and waiting on your bats and arms is forfeiting the mental edge to the other team. Being aggressive and taking the game to them - now you've given yourself a leg up in one crucial area of the game.


So I've gone off on a bit of a tangent there, but I hadn't yet raged about Ozzie's frustrating, stupid, and cowardly lack of commitment to taking the game to the other team yet this season, so might as well let it out now.

Looking ahead, this Texas team is solid, but beatable. Their pitching isn't bad, but it will give up runs. Their hitting is tough, but not unstoppable. I'm hoping the feel good vibe of those three late-inning wins will be the spark that gets the Sox O going, with the friendly dimensions and weather conditions of Arlington the fuel on the fire.

And that's a fire that can continue straight on into New York. The Yanks are tough, but that stadium is ripe for scoring runs and the pitchers they're throwing out there are very hittable. Pettitte has been tough so far, but at this stage of his career, I don't see that lasting. Why can't the Sox be the one to give him his first whooping? Vazquez? We all could have guessed that he'd be horrible in the Bronx, as he has been. Let's pay him back for costing us an untalked about but very real shot in 2008 at beating the Rays. Phil Hughes is finally living up to his hype and has been nasty this year. But like Pettitte, odds are that he's got a rough outing coming soon - why not Sunday?

These series and really, this Sox team, could go either way, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll finish up the week within a game of the .500 mark. And given how things started, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

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U-G-L-Y... You Aint Got No Alibi

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I was really hoping the Sox would win last night and I could spin this post positively. Sure it would have been largely BS - this team has just found ways to lose. But you gotta hang your hat on whatever you can and hope for the best. Being a fan is just more fun when you've got hope.

The idea was that a series win over the Rays, combined with the early split against the Jays on the road, would give us something we could build on. Seattle coming in this weekend can pitch, but they're beatable, especially outside of Safeco.

But instead I'm forced to reckon with the reality that this team has had one of the worst starts in baseball and has consistently found new and idiotic ways to lose. Starting pitching, relievers, defense, hitting - all of them have cost the team at least a couple of games. With the starting pitching the Sox have, every game is winnable. So far, only five times they've lived up to that promise.

Take this series with the Rays. The Sox followed up the opening game W with a pair of blow-out losses. First Buehrle and then Peavy crapped the bed. Buehrle I'll forgive - you know every 5-10 games he'll have a stinker. But in the end, he's gonna have an ERA in the 3s and win you 15+ games.

Peavy? That's a whole different story. My buddy Kramer seems to think he and AJ don't have the right chemistry. He says that Peavy has been waiving him off left and right. I haven't seen a ton of Peavy's starts, but I do remember that he waived off AJ at some crucial point in one of his previous outings and it seemed to bite him in the ass.

Is there something to that theory? Maybe - in watching the Sox in the AJ/Coop era, do you remember any pitchers waiving off AJ (or even the back-up) with any regularity? I can't remember it happening at all. Sure it does, but so rarely it's not really a thing. Between AJ, Coop, and their prep, most of the pitchers just go out and do what those guys tell them. And they should - AJ and Coop have a long, accomplished history and should be trusted.

Enter Peavy, who didn't seem to have these issues last year in his few Southside starts. Maybe he wasn't throwing to AJ much, maybe as a new guy, coming off injury, playing for a non-contender as the year wound down, he was just happy to pitch. Maybe now he's trying to establish his game, and it isn't jibing with AJ.

Or maybe there's nothing to this. Who knows, but somehow someone has to get Peavy back on track. The guy is flat nasty and still has nasty stuff. He's just not throwing strikes or making the pitches when it matters. He's had one good outing - against Cleveland, when Thornton blew the game. Can't fault either guy there - Peavy did his job and it's a rare day that Thornton doesn't make it happen.

But the rest of the time? Peavy's first outing featured 9 baserunners in 5 innings in a game the Sox eventually lost to the Tribe. One of those winnable games they found a way to lose. This second outing? Sox came out the victors, but no thanks to Jake's 7 ER in 5.2 IP. And then last night, with a ton of momentum on the line, with the Sox already having worn out the Rays starter and put a couple on the board. Peavy's response? Just walk everybody. Throw like garbage and piss away a great chance to finally get the season turned back around.

If the Sox win, they're 6-10 and largely can point to their 1-5 record against the Tribe as the source of their poor position in the standings. Instead, at 5-11 without a single series victory to their credit, the Sox have pretty much started out as poorly as they could have.

Peavy isn't alone in blame. Buehrle, Floyd, and Garcia all have thrown an absolute dud this year. Of course, every SP is gonna do that, and the Sox have a bunch of guys who are that way - 4 good outings, one terrible. But to have four starters all already put up an awful start in the first 16 games? You can't live with that, especially not when you're built to win behind your starting pitching. Let's hope it's dumb luck and that now we're in store for 20 straight quality starts. Why not - this staff is more than capable of it.

Of course, even if the pitching had been stellar every night, how much better off would the Sox be? A game or two above .500, maybe? Here's the lineup you run out there on most days:

1. Pierre - .217
2. Beckham - .228
3. Quentin - .167
4. Konerko - .245
5. Jones/Kotsay - .212 combined
6. Rios - .250
7. AJ - .163
8. Alexei - .212
9. Teahen - .250

Have you ever seen a team with this much talent where every single guy is not hitting?

And don't kid yourself - the Sox have talent. Pierre is a career .300 hitter who hit .308 last season. Beckham was the Sporting News Rookie of the Year last season. Quentin would have won the MVP in 2008 if he didn't break his wrist. Konerko has ten years w/ 20+ HRs, five years w/ 30+ HRs, and two years w/ 40+ HRs. Rios is a consistent 20-20 threat. AJ is a career .285-hitting catcher. Alexei was in the running for Rookie of the Year in 2008.

Was it expected a few guys would start slow? Of course, somebody always does. Alexei was even money to do so after his horrible starts in 08 and 09. But for the entire lineup to suck? I mean that's impressive.

The natural inclination is to call for someone's head. You can't fire all the players, so something has got to change. And I know this is the lame automatic response, but how many times is the Sox offense going to have to scuffle under Greg Walker for him to get let go? One of two things is wrong here - either Walk can't get the guys to hit or Kenny can't bring in guys who hit. Because aside the first half of 2006, the White Sox have ALWAYS been a subpar offensive team under Walk, despite spending big money on hitters and playing in an offensive park.

So is it Walker's fault or is it Kenny's? Someone has got to be accountable for the fact that in 2005, the 2nd half of 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and now the start of 2010, we've had to complain about how our lineup isn't hitting. Think back to all of those years - in the World Series season, the one issue that was always brought up to allow national experts to disregard the Sox was their offense. And it almost cost us - the bats went quiet in August and September and the Tribe were a couple of plays away from making the Sox the biggest chokers in Chicago baseball history, rather than the greatest team in Chicago baseball history.

At the All-Star game in 2006 we were on pace for a 95-win season, and yet ended up not even w/in sniffing distance of the playoffs. Sure, some of that was the pitching (especially the pen), but a lot was the hitting reverting back to the same frustrating form. 2007 was a disaster on all fronts, including the hitting.

2008 we had success as a team, but much like 2005, it was a lot of smoke and mirrors offensively. I know I remember bitching that whole year about that team - they were clearly good, but found ways to frustrate you, most often with their hitting. Last year, more of the same - nobody could hit. So much so that Kenny tore the team down and nearly started over this year.

Here's the thing - it's still very early. You can have a bad three week stretch and still do fine. The old line about how you can't win a division in April but you can lose it? Um, that's the biggest bunch of crap I've ever heard. Games are games, and every team can be expected to go through a rough stretch. If the Sox were playing well and then hit a 5-11 run, we'd all be worried, but we wouldn't be convinced it meant all was lost.

So there's no reason to think that now. Yes, the starting pitching needs to get a bit more consistent. But the high end is there - Buehrle is Buehrle, Peavy will get it together and be nasty (he's been too good for too long not to), Danks has been amazing so far, Floyd is no stranger to stumbles, but always seems to right the ship, and Freddy should be as good or better than any 5th starter out there. And if not, Hudson has thrown very well down in AAA so far.

Mark my words, we won't lose because of our starting pitching. As for the relief pitching, who knows (the pen is always completely unpredictable), but so far it's been damn good. Sure Jenks has been shaky here or there, sure we've blown a few games that would have looked good in the W column right now. But if you really look at it, Jenks is a capable closer, Thornton and Putz are shut-down set-up men who've been good so far, Santos and Linebrink have quietly done incredible work in middle relief, and Pena and Williams have had a couple of bad outings, but in all can be counted on for a few middle inning outs here and there, which is all we need.

To me, the pen, more than anything else, dictates your team. As long as you have the talent around that can compete (i.e. you're not the Pirates or something), if you get good to great work out of your pen, then you'll be hard-pressed not to at least hang around contention. Given this same pen work for the next 5+ months, and I promise you the Sox will get back into it. They've got the starting arms. They've got the offensive talent. And if the pen is protecting leads and keeping them in the games, we're gonna get a lot of Ws.

So be encouraged about the pen, have faith in the starters, and hope and pray for some offense. The talent is there. The right mix of speed, power, average, and getting on base is there. The depth is there. The veterans are there, the youth is there. The guys just need to perform as we know they can. Maybe it does mean Walker is let go. Maybe it's just waiting around for the bats to get going. Keep trying to bunt, run, and manufacture, and hope that, as so often happens, the bats just randomly catch fire.

There are some encouraging signs - Andruw Jones looks fully capable of being a legit hitter again. Now he started hot last year too, so I'm not sold yet... but I at least like that it's a very real possibility. Rios is doing a lot better than he did with the Sox last year, and is just a few hits away from being about where you'd like him - at .280 with a nice mix of speed and power. Teahen, at .250 and with a great OBA (.388) and some respectable pop (.475 SLG %) is doing everything we need from a back-of-the-order guy. Konerko, with 5 HRs and a .566 SLG %, is definitely getting it done. Sure, I'd like to see that average up, but what will really help him is if he had a few guys on base in front of him.

That falls to Pierre and Beckham. Both are getting their walks, but neither are getting the hits. To me, these guys will dictate this team. I know people like to point to Quentin, and it's true that when he's going, the offense is way better. And his .167 average out of the 3rd slot is killing us. But we could overcome that (by moving Quentin down and using some other bats in the middle), if Pierre and Beckham were hitting like they should. There's no reason both of those guys aren't over .300, instead of around .220. But both are streaky, so if they can get it going, get back near .300, get the OBAs around .360 (Juan) and .380 (Beckham), then I think this offense will go.

As for AJ, Kotsay, and Alexei? AJ and Kotsay are vets - we weren't counting on them for big numbers, just solid at-bats and being a tough out. I've got faith they'll get there, absolutely. Alexei - we've seen this before and he's shown he can get himself out of it. It's frustrating, but again, I've got faith. He's playing better in the field from what I've seen, and that speaks to better focus. The bat will come around.

In all, I do still believe this team is built right and can be very special. I absolutely am drinking Ozzie's kool-aid of a more dynamic roster. They've upgraded defensively and seem to have ridiculous amounts of pitching depth. I'm bummed by the start, scared by what the Seattle pitching staff might do to us this weekend, and not looking forward to games in Texas and New York next week.

But right now, the Sox opponents matter less than they do. It doesn't matter who we're playing if no one can get a hit more than once every four times up. And it doesn't matter where we play if the starting pitchers are laying an egg every fourth day.

I thought about that before the season began - if we got out slow, it might end up being cool, as I've never followed a Sox team that successfully digs its way out and becomes the hot team in baseball. The team no one wants to face in the playoffs. It happens to a few teams every year - wouldn't it be fun if it was the Sox? They've got that kind of team - not much for big names, but tons of depth and a dynamic attack. Why couldn't we scuffle along for another few weeks, then quietly get it going?

That's what's keeping me going - even as we just continue to lose series after series. I'm thinking that we still have the type of team that can get hot and make some noise, become the surprise team everyone had written off. Of course I always believe this and it's never happened, except for those amazing few weeks in October of 2005. But why not this year? Although, I wouldn't mind if the Sox don't make it so dramatic and instead get hot tonight and are back into this thing before Memorial Day. That'd be cool too.

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"You couldn't pull a greased tee out of my behind with a pair of pliers."

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The title of this post is a quote from Hawk immediately following last night's game. I get where he's coming from - the Sox have had a good shot to win every single game they've played this year, yet were scarily close to being 2-5 (while rivals Minnesota and Detroit were 6-2 and 5-2, respectively).

Somehow the Sox had found a way to lose almost every game. Heck, aside from Opening Day, they had almost lost both other games they won. It can get a bit tense and frustrating to be so close to something really good and yet end up so maddeningly far.

I wasn't that tense. Don't know why - but I'm just not freaking out about this team. Normally I do - while I'm an eternal optimist, I also take every loss really hard. I really appreciate how each game changes the look of a series and how each series changes the feel of your season. Heck, every at-bat, every inning matters to me, all seemingly having a key role in our ultimate success.

But for whatever reason, I'm not too worried about this squad. I'm not supremely confident or anything, just not worried. Through the first week of the season, we had the second best pitching in the AL. This despite a heavy taxing of our entire bullpen, despite every pitch in every game being thrown under significant pressure.

We've had all five starters go out and look solid, while all seven relievers have gone out and gotten the job done a couple of times. Sure, Peavy is struggling with a bad case of Linebrink Disease (good enough to get ahead of a hitter, unable to put him away). And Jenks has been getting by with smoke and mirrors for a while. But come on - those are the two most accomplished members of our staff.

Peavy will be fine - the knock on him is that he's always been too focused on perfection, trying to do too much himself. Cooper will get to him, straighten out his thinking. He'll convince Jake to let the solid defense behind him do their jobs, so that when he gets up 0-2, Peavy knows he doesn't have to go for a K, but instead can use the hitter's defensive approach to score an easy ground ball out.

Peavy's always been streaky, so while he may scuffle along for a bit, he'll eventually get it together and go all untouchable for a month straight, carrying us along the way. In the meantime, I've got no problem allowing Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Freddy to do the heavy lifting. These guys all looked good the first time out and will continue to get better. Buehrle's always been a first-half guy, while Danks and Floyd are still on the upswing in their careers, and Freddy is still working his way back to full go.

All four of those guys will have stumbles sometime soon, but I feel damn good that all four will be giving us quality start after quality start, keeping us in nearly every ballgame. They all throw strikes, they all attack hitters, they've all got a nice array of pitches, and they all have just enough stuff to consistently get outs. Throw in a solid defense playing behind them, and this crew is very capable of chewing up innings every time out, while mixing in a few gems along the way.

And if the starting pitching is on, the pen is gonna get us a lot of Ws. Yes, Jenks is a concern. But let's not start calling for Thornton or Putz to close just yet. Thornton is unhittable, but he's never shown he can consistently close. More importantly, using him as your 9th inning guy takes away your best left-handed option in the 7th and 8th, a real blow to this team. And while Putz was the best reliever in baseball a few years ago (no exaggeration - no one was more difficult to hit), he's still working his way back.

If Putz can get back to dominant form and Jenks continues to be very suspect, then maybe Ozzie can swap their roles in a month. But keep your fingers crossed that doesn't happen - the Sox will be in their best position if Jenks can rediscover his touch and both Thornton and Putz are unhittable in lefty/righty set-ups roles... a la Cotts/Politte.

But don't think that the bullpen is only about your closer, or even your closer and set-up guys. That's one of the biggest mistakes the casual fan and even most GMs make. Your 7th-9th inning guys are key, but so are your 5th-6th inning guys. The Sox need Randy Williams to be serviceable, capable of coming in and getting a left-hander out before the 8th so Thornton isn't always getting the call.

The Sox also need Linebrink, Santos, and Pena to bridge from the quality starts to the lights-out back of the pen guys. While he's been rightfully maligned these past two seasons, Linebrink's numbers in the first half of both we're untouchable. If he can repeat that, I'll be fine. Go ahead and suck in the 2nd half - just be nasty until July and the Sox will be in good shape. So far he's looked OK, able to deliver that out pitch when needed.

Pena is gonna be our cleaner - the guy who gets the mop up innings, pitches in extras, or gets a token right-hander early on. Those guys matter, as if they can minimize the damage or keep you in the game, you can steal some extra wins. And odds are this division will, for the third year in a row, come down to the final weekend or later.

Plus, with both Linebrink and Pena, and heck, even Santos, you want them throwing well because you never know when they'll be called on to upgrade their role. Maybe Jenks does fall flat on his face. Maybe Putz has arm issues. It happens to every pen at some point, so if the Sox have a 3rd, 4th, and 5th right-handed option who can step up and fill the void, that's huge.

In fact, most successful teams showcase a couple arms in the pen who have outperformed what was expected of them that season. Pena and Linebrink have both been pretty tough in the past - why couldn't they find that form and carry the load for a bit?

Or, why couldn't Santos? They've touched on his story, but lemme repeat it - he was a middling IF prospect who saw the writing on the wall and switched to being a pitcher to give himself another shot at the bigs. Unfortunately that just happened last year and this season he was out of options, so the Sox had to carry him on the roster or lose him to waivers.

Yep, Sergio Santos is throwing in the majors after exactly one season of minor league pitching work. One.

So if you haven't been impressed by what you've seen - good heat, nice location, ability to attack, stuff to get the outs - then be impressed by how far he's come in such a short time. Santos' upside is truly unreal. With Coop working with him, this kid could be a real impact arm.

But it's not just the stuff that has gotten to me - it's how he's come right up to the bigs and thrown strikes. No raw, stuff-only arm ever does that. Yet, that's what Santos is doing. He's coming right after hitters, trusting his stuff, trusting AJ, and trusting his defense. The result has been a kid who has already thrown some big innings and gotten some key outs. In his first week in the bigs. A year after becoming a pitcher. Yeah.

Had he just been not terrible I'd have been encouraged, but from what we've seen so far, I'm pretty pumped. It's still very early, but all the signs are pointing to a real gem here.


Mark my words - if the pitching holds, the rest will come around. The defense has made a few mistakes, but I think we'll see more good than bad from them this year, especially once all the new guys get more comfortable where they're playing (tho Ozzie needs to start Rios in center whenever he plays - that was a silly mistake using Jones there and pushing Rios to left). Remember, Konerko and AJ are the only guys with extensive experience at their position at the Cell. Give these guys some time and I think we'll like our defense again this year after last season's disaster.

As for the offense, I think it will come around. It won't carry us or anything (at least beyond a few hot streaks), but I think it is fully capable of giving us what we need to win. We've been close to that level so far and I think there's plenty of upside with this lineup. I can see a lot of clutch hits and quiet comebacks, just doing enough to get the wins. Sure, so far we've left WAY too many guys on third with less than two outs, but that will come around, the power is already starting to show, and these guys are giving themselves chances, even while not hitting their best.

One quick aside - how about my two much-maligned off-season targets - Druw Jones and Teahen - being the heroes last night? Hells yeah, best tasting crow I've eaten in a while! Please, serve up some more, fellas!

Back to the lineup - Quentin looks like he's back to MVP-type levels. Konerko looks like he'll be streaky, but also be enough of a threat to protect CQ. Pierre needs to get himself more comfortable - that's always been his game and it will come eventually. Beckham is such a talent, I've got every faith in him. Rios will also contribute - maybe not to superstar levels (which he is capable of), but at least enough to be a positive in the lineup. AJ will be AJ. And Kotsay and Druw Jones look like they'll be a real nice platoon, finding all sorts of ways to help this team win.

The big questions? Alexei and Teahen. For now, those are you 8th and 9th hitters, so the pressure if off. We don't need either to carry us - just not be giant holes in the lineup. Because for this team to win, it won't be based on a few bats - it'll be a tough, top-to-bottom lineup that challenges hitters all day long.

Are Alexei and Teahen capable of rounding out the lineup? Alexei seems like he's off to a crap start again, which is frustrating. I'd imagine we'll be seeing some Nix and Vizquel real soon if he doesn't get it going. Teahen had his best game in the Silver and Black last night - hopefully we'll see more flashes of that. Don't need anything special, just enough average, power, and OBA to be a respectable big league out. He's done it before - now let's see if Teahen can do it every day in a regular starting role.

I felt really pumped after Opening Day, I didn't waiver during the four-game losing streak, and am in a better place after sneaking out the last two Ws. But that 3-4 record is not indicative of what I feel this team is going to be. Not just what they're capable of, but what they'll be. I've got faith the Sox will be winning a lot more games than they lose, because they seem to be playing right - good starting pitching, very good and deep bullpen, solid defense, and decent contributions throughout the lineup.

Even if we stumble a bit more, I still like this squad. Sure, it's always fun to have years like 1993 and 2000, where we just run away and hide and there's not a lot of drama. But I think there was something really valuable in fighting to the very end in 2005. So if we struggle early, so be it - it'll be fun to be one of those teams who gets hot in the second half and charges back into things.

However they do it, I'm feeling good about the 2010 Sox. Hope you are too.

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Is Crow On The Menu? (Part II)

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Yesterday I discussed the big intangible Teahen brings to the table that might just save his acquisition and contract extension from being a major bust - something I absolutely thought it would be originally. As my buddy posted in the comments section, just being funny sounds like a pretty rah-tarded thing to make up for mediocre play on the field.

Sort of true, but one guy really can make a difference in the demeanor of a team, and that difference can mean you win more ballgames. Plus, as I should have stressed, 3B for most teams is not somewhere you get much for production. Look around the league and aside a handful of guys like ARod, Longoria, and a few others, most teams have nothing but offensive mediocrity at the hot corner.

If Teahen can be like so many of those others and hold his own defensively while playing every day, he'll be a serviceable 3B. And a serviceable 3B who help keeps your team with the right attitude? I'll take it.


But today I'm not asking you to make such an intangible leap of faith. Instead, I look at the very tangible reasons adding Andruw Jones this offseason could end up not looking stupid - another outcome I originally thought to be fairly definite.

Why the change on Andruw Jones - it's pretty straight forward stuff. I will say I still can't believe they committed to a guy who hit under .220 in four straight months last year, all while playing in Texas, where EVERYONE hits, and had regressed so far defensively that he was mainly a DH.

But I've since learned he didn't get $1M, but instead only a $500k deal. It's not the difference in dollars per se, it's that $500k basically is the league minimum. So they paid the least amount of money they could to fill a roster spot. Viewed that way, why not take a shot at some career rejuvenation? Jones is still only 32 and with his financial gravy train doneski, maybe the motivation is now restored.

That still doesn't justify counting on a guy like Jones to play a significant role on the team, which at this point the Sox are. They didn't sign a true DH, which I like in principle, but am leery if the plan is that Jones can somehow handle a portion of those at-bats. Again, in June, July, August, and September of last year, he couldn't manage to hit over .220. In Texas. Where Milton Bradley and Gary Matthews (the two biggest salary dumps of this off-season) were offensive stars.

But two things are changing my mind. The first is simple - if there's anything in baseball that's easy to get, it's a right-handed bat. If you don't care what position he plays and don't need him to bat from the left side (both true for the Sox), then you pretty much can go to about half the teams in the league and they'll have someone they can offload on you. If Jones doesn't get it done by the end of April, Kenny can easily find himself another option via trade. So can I really sit here and say that I think the Sox downfall will be relying on Jones when I know they can so easily replace him?

The other thing - Jones has looked and sounded like a different player this spring. He's lighter, he's driven, and he's producing. Sure it's Spring Training, but it's definitely better than him not doing those things. At least the possibility is still there. And everything he's been saying sounds like he wants it bad. Jones is not content to be a right-handed bench option. He's not even content to be the main DH or a semi-regular OF.

No, Druw Jones expects to win that starting CF spot at sometime this season. And not just with his bat - he's apparently driven to show that he can still play center as good as anyone in the game. That's a statement that used to be undeniable, but in recent years seemed impossible.

Is Jones about the 10,000th player to come into camp in great shape and profess a new lease on life? Yep. Is he the 10,000th player to tantalize with a return to previous stardom? Yep. Could he be one of the small, small minority who actually comes through? Why not. The guy always was a head case. Even at his peak, you weren't sure you were getting his all. No one ever put a ceiling on this guy. He could steal, hit for power, and holy cow could he cover center.

At 32, there's no reason to think he's done. Will he be the Gold Glover he was for a decade? Probably not, as even fully committed, defense is a young man's game. But could he be a plus defender in all three OF positions? Yep - very plausible. And could he really get his offense back? Well, he never was a guy who hit for average, but he could definitely hit for power and drive in runs. Why couldn't he do it again? Plenty of players have good to great years from 32 to 34.

And that could end up being very necessary for the Sox. Rios and Quentin are huge question marks in the OF. Rios could hit .200 again and/or Quentin could be back on the shelf. Or a fluke injury to Pierre or Konerko (both impressively injury-free in their careers) or even Kotsay could put extra pressure on the Sox. And the guy who answers the bell might just be Jones. You can't think of a single good season by any team in baseball that didn't involve somebody unexpectedly stepping up and coming through in spades.


Look, I'm not pulling a 180 and saying these two moves which I previously loathed are now going to be the reason we win another ring. I'm just saying that I'm not as assured as before that I'm going to hate these moves. Teahen could be serviceable at third and bring something I find very necessary to the team dynamic. And Druw Jones could just rediscover what once made him good, at least enough to earn some starts in all three spots in the OF and to help the club with his 300-400 ABs.

The possibility is there, which is all you ask for. And as a fan, that's what you're hoping for - I want to be able to get a little bit excited about every part of this club. Despite my earlier assurances I couldn't, I'm starting to come around. There's a glimmer of hope that Teahen and Andruw Jones won't be stains on Kenny's resume. And that hope is what makes this time of year so fun in baseball.

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