Spring Break - Part III

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If ya missed it earlier this week, check out Part I here and Part II here.

I referenced on Monday my contentment with Kenny not moving an SP or Quentin. Kind of interesting seeing as I had called for CQ's departure at the beginning of the off-season. Keeping our full stack of starting pitchers was a no-brainer (and I think the Sox felt that way too), but Quentin was not. He's not cheap ($5M this year), he's injury-prone (which means you can't even count on him for a conservative level of production), and with each passing middling season, his trade value takes a significant hit.

But you know what - I think the way it shook out, Kenny was right to hang on to Carlos (and not just because he and his Playmobile hair are my wife's favorite player on the Sox). With Paulie and Dunn around, CQ no longer is being counted on to be the primary offensive force on this team. And even if either of those guys stumbles, Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all provide the potential to be real difference makers in the lineup. Throw in a pair of always useful vets in AJ and Pierre, and suddenly the Sox are in a place to very much win w/o a great deal of production from Quentin.

Now that initially had me thinking that this made him expendable, but that was based on the fact that I didn't think the Sox had the payroll room left to add pieces like Crain and Ohman to give them the pen they needed. And I'd much rather be a bit light in the OF than the bullpen. However, given that we found the money necessary for everything, now I'm thinking it was a good move keeping CQ's potential around.

There's not a great deal of pressure on him, which should be a nice help to the notoriously introverted and intense Carlos. But there still exists a world of potential - in 2008 he was flat out the best offensive player in the American League when he got hurt on Sept 1st.

And to win a championship, you need that kind of potential. No team has hoisted the trophy w/o having a few guys come out and absolutely overproduce for what they were expected of. In 2005 Contreras, Cotts, and Politte jump to mind, as does Everett's first half or even Uribe's defense at short.

While none of these guys ever matched that high level of production again (tho Contreras was pretty nasty in the first half of 2006), for that brief period in 2005 they lived up to every bit of potential they had. And there's no way we're champs without that happening.

So for 2011 to be just as magical, you need a few guys to come through with career years. It's even more impactful when that career year comes out of a guy like CQ, who's ceiling is MVP-caliber, as we saw in 2008. I mean if AJ or Morel have a career year, it'd be awesome. But their .300-20-80 line isn't gonna carry us the way CQ's 30 and 100 in 5 months of play did.

And don't think that because he's scuffled a bit in 2009 and 2010 that Carlos isn't capable of being that beast again. The kid still has it in him to hit 35 jacks and drive in 115 RBI. Sheesh, last year with all the nagging injuries and slumps and whatnot, he still hit 26 jacks and drove in 87 in only 131 games. Give this guy 155 games just at the same level he was last year and we're talking 31 and 103.

So is it really a leap to say a fully healthy, dialed-in Quentin could come through with 35 and 115? Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that's what we should count on - not at all. See, that's the beauty of the Dunn signing - with it, we don't have to sit here and say we need those kind of numbers out of CQ to have a shot, like we did going into last season.

Instead, what I'm saying is that between Paulie, Dunn, CQ, Rios, and even Alexei and Beckham, I'm guessing we're gonna get at least 2 guys producing at legit middle of the order levels, with another guy doing well enough to at least protect them. And that'd be as good or better than what we had in 2005 and 2008, when it was really only one big bat and one solid guy providing protection.


So yeah, my dad intrigued me when he started talking about dealing a guy like Ed Jackson and Quentin to the Yanks for Gardner (who I absolutely love - a blazing speedster with good OBA and average potential who doesn't seem to be very highly valued just yet) and some of their top shelf prospects. He figured we could grab a guy like Freddy to hold down the #4 spot until Peavy got back, then slip into the #5 and leave us in the same place we were last year when we had our month-plus hot streak.

At the time what gave me pause was giving up a frontline SP with Peavy being such a question mark. Also, the fact is that rarely do Yankees prospects live up to the hype (including their current catching uber-prospect, who seems to be too big to be an everyday catcher, even if everyone is convinced he can rake).

But now? As much as I'd love to have Gardner on the Southside for the next 10 years sparking our club like no other leadoff hitter we've ever had (all due respect to Pods and Pierre, but they never had the total AVG, OBA, and speed combo that Gardner does), I'm happy that Kenny stayed pat on CQ. His high end potential slotted into a reasonable price and 6th spot in the order, as well as in a role (right-handed hitting right fielder) that can easily be filled with a mid-season trade, means we're in the ideal low-risk, high reward situation.


Please check out Part IV here and soon, Part V.

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