WAKE UP, CLAIRE!

-

Every time I come upon an insane level of deliberate obtuseness, I think back to the original Mission Impossible (they're coming out with a 4th, by the way, even tho all but the first were horrible) and the scene early in the movie where the hot chick with the great lips stumbles back to the safe house to meet Tom Cruise. She's refusing to accept the reality of their situation, that they've been sold out and everyone's dead. And delivering a line in an insane way that only a truly insane person can, Cruise screams at her with the perfect insane face, "WAKE UP, CLAIRE!"

Annoyingly, no one else really remembers that scene or line very well, but damnit, it fits a lot of situations, especially as a sports fan. How many times do you just want to (or actually do) scream at your TV or radio or computer when an athlete or more often coach/front office guy does something so incredibly stupid, yet so obviously avoidable?

The Sports Guy talks about how every team needs a VP of Common Sense, someone to be the one to take a step back and ask, "wait, what are we about to do here?" when making those big decisions that fans and pundits immediately jump on as awful and just as immediately prove themselves to be so.

Personally I'd expand the concept beyond just "VP of Common Sense" to "Non-Team/Industry-Affiliated VP of Common Sense." Of course any actual front office guy would laugh at this concept, but that's because they are idiots. Every institution in the world should have someone like this because every institution suffers from group think and institutional blindness to some level.

Sports teams are especially guilty of this, being run by such a small, exclusive community of front office executives who've spent their whole lives within the sport. So it should be obvious that every organization should have someone who is knowledgeable on their team, knowledgeable on their sport, but in no way an insider. Not a writer, not someone who's worked for teams, not someone who's played the game professionally. Just a very well-versed, well-educated, intelligent, dedicated fan.

Like any position, you'd check resumes, interview, and then hire them on for the position. But they'd remain wholly independent of the team, not having anything to do with the inner-workings. They wouldn't be in on how the decisions are made, nor would they get input or info directly from the organization. All of their knowledge and insight would come from outside, independent sources. The VP's connection to the organization would be limited to just two things.

First, the team would bring all semi-significant decisions, after they've made them but before they've executed them, to the VP-CS. The team would lay out their thinking and then ask if any warning bells are going off. Is some part of their reasoning incorrect? Have they missed something? Are there better options they didn't consider? And so on.

Second, the VP would be empowered to speak up when he sees something that he feels the team is missing, and the team would be obligated to give a rational, thought-out justification in response to the VP's point. By constantly questioning what so often is just accepted as given, he'd force the organization to justify everything it does with actual benefits, rather than just blindly accepting that "we've done this this way for this long, so that's just what we do."

Finally, after about 3 seasons, the VP will have learned so much about the organization as they justify their decisions to him that he'd invariably begin to become part of the group think. So you'd cycle a new guy in during the last year of the old guy's tenure to get some fresh perspective and energy, while also having a guiding hand to keep the process efficient and the transition smooth.


So why the obscure Tom Cruise reference and the fleshing out of another writer's idea in the first Baines Herald in way too long (in my defense, I've written a few of these but then scrapped them when I didn't feel good that I had properly fleshed out the article's points... only to see them not become timely and need to be re-worked from scratch)? Because think of how much better off the Sox would be today if they had a VP of Common Sense the last few seasons:

"Wait, you want to claim Alex Rios and the $60M over 5 years he's got left on his deal? Let's just say this was the off-season, would you guys really make that kind of free agent offer to this guy? That doesn't sound like the Sox. Especially because I don't think anyone would. Why don't we pass on the claim and see if the Jays won't take on a big chunk of the salary come this off-season. What's the worst case - they say no and we've still got that same $60M over 5 we'd have given to him to spend on someone probably even better."

"Wait, you guys want to give this Mark Teahen a 3-year, $14M extension? Even before he's had an at-bat with us? Even tho his fairly long career to this point has been consistently mediocre? Even tho he's under our arbitration control (at a reasonable price) this year? Why don't we wait, see what he can do under our tutelage? If we're right and he is a diamond in the rough, we still have all season to re-up with him before he walks. But in a market where $5M a year buys some very good players, why would we commit to three years worth of that for a guy who so far has been only worth a million or two?"

"Wait, your plan is to give Mark Kotsay, a guy who hasn't played everyday for over 3 years, who has always hit 1st, 2nd, 7th, or 9th, about 400+ at-bats as your #5 hitter? I'm cool with this rotate-the-DH concept you pitched, but that was before you explained that to make it work, you'd need Kotsay to morph into a run-producer after 13 big league seasons as a table-setter.

If you want me to sign off on this no-DH thing, then either find another guy in your line-up to hit #5 or bring in a different lefty who actually can do that job for 400 ABs. And while we're on the subject, don't try to sell me on Andruw Jones as the other side of that platoon. I love platoons, I love using the DH to keep your guys fresh, but like anything else, this system is limited by the personnel, and right now you are missing the proper personnel. Both those guys are good bench depth, but even combined they should not be getting everyday at-bats. Come on guys - these two were both waived in the last year or two."


And then this season... oh this season... my would the VP of Common Sense be earning his paycheck now:

"I didn't say anything after the first month as slumps happen and Rios and Dunn have both shown that they will get into them, but also eventually get out of them. But when May came and went and both still sucked, I told you it was time to do something different. I even rolled out the old cliche - the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result. Playing them every day in roughly the same batting spots was idiotic. It was clear both were mentally lost and more at-bats weren't helping in the slightest. In the meantime, they were killing our team, who by then had finally gotten their defense and pitching together.

As June was finishing up and both STILL sucked, I pointed to the 6-game stretch in NL parks as a perfect opportunity to sit Dunn for an extended stretch. Throw in the off days and then a continued benching for the final homestand before the All-Star break and we could have bought Dunn almost 3 weeks off and only lost him for 7 DH games. Rios could have worked the same way - sit him for those 6 NL games, use him as pinch runner, pinch hitter, defensive replacement. That stuff is very valuable to have in NL parks. Then bench him for that home stand and let him enjoy his 4-day All Star break away.

Now, it's almost the end of July. We're talking almost FOUR straight months and 100 games of these guys being the worst hitters in all of baseball. I checked - there are only a handful of guys with 150 plate appearances this year who have a lower OPS than Dunn and Rios. And they all are defensive middle infielders, catchers, or broken shells of 3Bs. They are not making over $12M and expected to hit in the middle of their teams' orders.

WAKE UP, CLAIRE! You can no longer argue that letting them play through it is a reasonable solution - it is 100% proven to be a failed strategy. There is no denying it now. Furthermore, logic even shows that we have hit a point where we are in a NO-LOSE situation by sitting these guys for 2+ weeks and using other alternatives. Let's take a look at the possible outcomes of sitting Dunn and Rios everyday for 2 weeks, playing Lillibridge and Viciedo in their stead:

-Outcome 1, Lillibridge and Viciedo are horrible, Dunn and Rios return and are still horrible. Result: Tie.

We're no worse off than if Dunn and Rios just continue to play horrible with everyday at-bats, which again, at this point in time, is what we have to assume to be the case moving forward, given the nearly 4 months and 100 games of evidence. This is the worst case scenario and we break even... says something, eh?

-Outcome 2, Lillibridge and Viciedo are average or better, Dunn and Rios return and are still horrible. Result: WINNER!

Even just an average Lillibridge and Viciedo will contribute much more than the horrible Dunn/Rios combo (which, again, we have to assume is what we will get, given, again, the nearly 4 freakin months and 100 games of evidence). That means we might win a few more games over these next two weeks, more if Lillibridge and Viciedo play well (both have shown flashes of ability to do just that at the big league level). And these extra wins could be huge in this tight race. Plus, now we know that we've got viable alternatives moving forward, so we can more confidently sit Dunn and Rios down the stretch.

Maybe we even sit them the whole rest of the way, using them as bench options. We're pretty close to first with these guys killing us every day - why couldn't we win the division with them not killing us and instead getting just average big league production from Lillibridge and Viciedo?

-Outcome 3, Lillibridge and Viciedo do anything (horrible to incredible), Dunn and Rios return from their time off now performing at least within expectations. Result: WINNER!

Yet again, we've got to assume Dunn/Rios will suck, cause anything else marks us as blindly idiotic, so we're not losing anything if Lillibridge and Viciedo do crap the bed. But holy lord, what if getting some true time off is what these guys need? Not a few days over the All-Star break, where coming back to your struggles is right around the corner (come on, we've all taken weekend vacations... we know how impending that Monday return to work hangs over everything). But a real, long, the end seems so far off type of getaway that really puts a clear distinction between the time you left and what you return to.

It is very simple, fellas. In their current mental state, these two have proven, beyond any doubt, that they are incapable of hitting big league pitching with any sustained success. To continue to play them everyday expecting that to somehow change would be like playing me every day and expecting me to learn to be a big leaguer.

They aren't going to luck into a string of success to get their confidence back, no more so than you'd expect me to luck into a string of success to prove a reasonable major league hitter. They also aren't going to luck into a mechanical fix or proper approach any more than I'd luck into the proper mechanics and approach to suddenly be a big league hitter. Not at this point - not 4 months in, not 100 games through the year.

So please, let's quit killing the team, let's start seeing what kind of alternatives we actually have on hand, AND at the same time, let's see if doing something drastically different than what has failed for 4 straight months and 100 games might finally rescue two players who absolutely could and should be major assets to not only a division title, but a World Series Title as well."


Final point - with the trade deadline less than two weeks away, the Sox have given themselves no alternatives to Dunn and Rios' continued struggles beyond hoping they figure it out or that Lillibridge and Viciedo could be viable everyday players. If in mid June (which would have given Dunn and Rios plenty of time to prove they can't hit their way out of this), the Sox had turned to Lillibridge and Viciedo, they would have had over a month to see if either of those two could be counted on for regular ABs AND whether or not Dunn and Rios could return from some extended time off to be regular contributors.

And if not, the Sox then could have made some moves at the deadline. Because damnit, this team has every single chance to win a freakin World Series title, something that rarely comes around for any big league team that doesn't spend $180M a year, a la Boston and New York. Take a look at the pieces they have in place and it suddenly becomes clear just how MUCH Dunn and Rios are uniquely responsible for turning this club into a sub .500 team.

Last night they showed a stat that says the Sox have the fewest errors in the bigs - that's impressive, especially given how horrible defensively they were to start the year. And it's not like that's some misleading, antiquated stat - errors are still a key factor to success. Plus, the Sox have average to good range pretty much around the field. Paulie and Quentin don't move a ton, but the three-headed monster at 3B, Alexei, Beckham, Rios, and Pierre all can cover ground. Defense, which is so crucial to pitching (in fact, it's the new OBA as far as statheads and front offices are concerned), is clearly a strength for this Sox team.

Somehow in an era where most teams can't find 4 starting pitchers, we've got 6. Sure they aren't all consistent, but it's still 6 guys throwing well enough to be a #4 or better in any rotation in the bigs. And 6 guys who've shown an ability to be dominant for long stretches. That means we can overcome injuries, deal with ineffectiveness, and keep our guys nice and fresh so that come the playoffs, we've got 4 arms who are dealing, giving us a good shot to win every night in October.

Maybe the most important piece to any playoff run is the bullpen and holy balls has this pen come together after a terrible start. Santos has only factored into 3 losses (two blown saves and a tie game he lost) in his 42 outings this year. Thornton, who was SO victimized by poor defense (entering this year he had given up 1 unearned run in his whole career... this year he's given up 11!), is back to the dominant lefty he's always been for the Sox. Crain, traditionally a 2nd half pitcher, had the best 1st half numbers of anyone on the team.

Sale has quietly spent the past two months being the beast we all thought he was. Ohman is even more forgotten about, yet has been nasty steady as a spot lefty and garbage man. Bruney has done much the same from the right hand side. Even this new kid Santiago has thrown 5.1 innings of beauty work, with only a hit and walk against.

That just leaves the lineup, and if you subtract the HUGE negative presences of Dunn and Rios, it actually isn't too bad. Pierre, always a slow starter, has gotten his OBA up to .333 (about what you'd expect from him) and is coming thru with big hits at big times. Alexei has settled in to the 2nd spot, scoring and driving in runs at a respectable clip. Konerko has been an absolute beast in the middle, bringing power, clutchness, and professional hitting to every at-bat. Quentin has done enough to be a very respectable middle of the order guy, driving in runs, hittin bombs, and getting on base.

Beckham's been all over the map, with a horrid April and June around a very good May and now July, but overall his .255 average and 7 jacks aren't too bad for a bottom of the order guy, especially one who is a notorious 2nd half hitter. And while AJ has no home run stroke any more, I'll take his 20 extra base hits and .290 average as a catcher. The three-headed monster at 3B has not been good, but it's fine as your worst offensive position (which it should be on this team), with each guy doing a little of something to warrant big league at-bats. Lillibridge has been an outstanding super-sub, with impressive OBA and power, even if his average has cooled, while Castro does plenty as a back-up backstop.


Yep, all that's missing is offensive contributions from your DH and CFer. That's why it's so simple - you move Lillibridge to an everyday job, knowing that he'll be inconsistent but give you more OBA and power than Rios. Rios becomes your bench OF for the next 2-3 weeks, giving him time to get a whole new perspective and put the first 100 games behind him. Dunn becomes a bench hitter, again taking advantage of time away from the everyday slog to change his thought process. Viciedo steps into your DH role, which yes, makes you heavily right-handed. But that brings us back to our VP of common sense...

"So why is it that we have to have a lefty in the middle of the order? I know in an ideal world it'd be preferred. I'm not talking ideal worlds - I'm talking our team here. Why is our strategy to put ANY left-handed bat into the middle of the order instead of some reasonable right-handed alternatives?

Last year we did that with Kotsay and it was an epic disaster. The guy had his worst year as a pro and our DH spot was the least productive in the AL. This year Ozzie continues to run Dunn out in the middle of the order instead of moving him and Rios down to the 7-8-9 spots, where they'd do the least damage. And I gotta assume some of what's keeping the front office from elevating Viciedo into Dunn's spot is that we'd have yet another righty to put with Paulie and Konerko in the middle of the order.

But come on - Viciedo hit .308 and slugged .520 in over 100 big league at-bats last year. He's on pace for 27 bombs and 110 RBI at AAA this year, hitting a stellar .317. He's freakin ready. And we freakin need him.

And, god forbid we end up too righty-heavy, ya know, like our 2000 team, which won 95 games despite having a total joke of a starting rotation (Sirotka was in the high 3s, Parque, Baldwin, and Eldred all were in the 4s, with Wells and Garland putting up 6. ERAs as part-time #5s). Or the 2005 team, which had the ghost of Carl Everett as the token lefty in the second half, hitting a whopping .228 w/ a .386 SLG % (for reference, Juan Pierre has a career .364 SLG %).

Come on, guys - you're making decisions that flat ignore the evidence at hand and relying on strategic notions that don't apply to your personnel. And it's turning what should be a World Series favorite into a frustrating after-thought for the sixth straight time since the title team."


-

Rock Bottom?

-

I was there last night, the second time I've witnessed a no-no at the Cell (Buehrle's Perfecto). I was with a big group of pretty diehard baseball fans, but only one other guy was a Sox fan. So they all loved that they got to see a no hitter and couldn't quite understand why I didn't enjoy, at least a little, what just happened. But I didn't - it just sucked. I wanted it to end at every opportunity. I got no joy from it and now, removed from the night, I still think it sucks. All I saw is a winnable game that we lost being celebrated nationally.

Maybe not getting a single freakin hit off a guy sporting a 9.06 ERA in a game that could have easily been won with just a smattering of timely hitting would be about as bad as it could get. That 11-19 record following the most April losses in team history is where the losing stops and the healing begins. Maybe it's not the great turnaround of 2010, but at least it can't get worse, right?

Annoyingly, it absolutely can get worse. Sure we won't lose in such a historical fashion again, but just continuing to lose in any way would suck. This team is built too well, featuring way too much potential, and facing too short of a window of success for Sox fans to be anything but extremely beaten down. There's no silver lining, no hope except for winning. No moral victories of any worth, no necessary experience, no helpful lessons to be learned.

Quite the downer, eh? Well, I'm gonna put it down for the record - the Sox are coming back. Just like they did in 2010. But this time, they aren't gonna falter after a brief but meteoric rise. Instead, they're gonna roar back into things, settle into a nice groove, and then pick things up even more, maybe after a late-season mini-swoon. They're gonna hit October as one of the hotter teams in baseball and they're gonna quietly be talked about as a leading title threat.

From there? Who knows - the playoffs are a goofy exercise that you can't ever hope to predict. So I won't - I'm just gonna stick with the thought that these Sox will make it happen, despite what everyone's writing (the local beat guys and columnists are having a field day with their demise) and what a lot of fans are thinking (fortunately, like last year, most aren't thinking about them too much, thanks to the Hawks and Bulls).

Am I just an indefatigable optimist? Nope, I'm basing my thought on pure hard facts (and a bit of a rosey view of such). Here's what I see:

1) Paulie and Quentin have been as good of a 1-2 as the Sox could expect in the heart of their order. While both are prone to slumps, it's not shocking what these two are doing nor is it hard to see similar production the rest of the way.

2) The bench guys - Lillibridge, Teahen, Omar, and Castro (+ Milledge's one start) - have combined, in 129 ABs, to put up a line that over a full season would mean a .271 AVG, .333 OBA, 25 HR, 25 doubles, and 20 SB. Yes please.

3) Humber has been a revelation in his 5 starts, with a 2.67 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP over 30 IP.

4) Santos, Crain, and Ohman (since his disastrous first two outings) have been outstanding, with tiny ERAs and WHIPs in regular work.

Is all that enough to convince me this horrid start is going to be forgotten soon? Nope, but having the heart of your order, your bench, half of your pen, and a back of the rotation piece all looking great is a nice start. But there's more:

1) Pierre, Alexei, Rios, and Dunn are some of the most consistent players in baseball, when you look at their final stats for each year. JP almost every year goes for around a .280 AVG, .335 OBA, 45-60 steals, and 90-100 runs. Alexei is gonna give you a .280, 18 HR, 70-80 R and RBI, 15 SB line - and do so after an April generally worse than what he just went through. Rios is .285, 15-20 HRs, 15-30 steals - I said last year after his nasty first half that he'd regress to those levels by the end of the year... which he did. Now, I'm saying the opposite, which he will.

Finally there's Dunn - a guy with a decade as a .250 hitter with a .380 OBA, 40 HR, 80-100 R, 100 RBI. I've followed this guy closely because of fantasy and this slump he's in is nothing new. He goes in streaks - he will get hot and jack 8 HRs in 12 days, carrying your club by himself. Then he'll do it again a week later.

But when you've hit 15 HRs in about 25 days, you're gonna end up balancing that with some real down times. Dunn just flat disappears for long stretches, becoming a factory of O-fers and Ks.

I was fearful that this very scenario would play out, with Dunn going into a stone cold spell before he had won over the Sox fans with one of his hot streaks. But while everyone else frets, I know that soon Dunn will be a beast, and by himself will win us a handful of games in a handful of days. Multi-HR games, big RBI nights, 2- and 3-run jacks galore... his box scores will just be filled with numbers day in and day out. Just watch - it's coming.

2) Not much is really expected offensively from AJ and Morel, so they don't have far to go to be at the level we need to be a champion. AJ's work with the bat has always been over-rated, so his .260 average, even w/o any walks or power, is just shy of what we need. An extra hit, walk, and pop here or there and he's golden. As for Morel - yes, that .187 average and 0 walk count is brutal, but if the guy hits .235, keeps avoiding Ks, and plays sweet D like he has, we'll be just fine. Pena, too - if he can just be respectable mopping up messes and bridging gaps slightly better than he is, he'll have done his job. If not, this kid Gray looks capable of doing so.

3) While they haven't been great, the reality is that Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd aren't that far off where they've been each of the past three seasons. In 2008 we won the division with a mediocre O (Carlos all but carried us himself) and some solid pitching. Well, the numbers these three posted in 2008 are about one good start away from what these guys are doing now.

4) Since blowing four straight saves, Thornton has settled down for five good outings in six chances. Plus he's got a hell of a track record on him and still is throwing good stuff - taken out of the closer role, I expect him to rediscover his groove and contribute in a big way to this club. With the possible return of Peavy and Humber's great work so far, Ed Jackson is basically a #5, which makes his three great outings in 7 starts about all you could hope for. Yes he's capable of much more, but the Sox can get by with just a bit more consistency.


Baseball really is the type of game where it doesn't take a whole lot of change to see a whole lot of result. If you look at who's going right and who's not far from going right, you're talking about the great majority of the roster. In all, I've only got three real concerns:

1) Beckham. You can argue that, like Alexei, he's just a cold starter, given how good his second halves have been the last two seasons. You can also throw out that he's was in an even worse slump that lasted three times as long last year, but found his way out to the tune of one of the position's top H2s of 2010.

I actually do believe he'll return to production eventually, but I'm just not sure it won't take another half season to happen. And that's something that will be very, very hard to overcome. I just don't have a long track record like with the other guys who are struggling to lean on for faith, so I'm going to have to remain unsure, even though I'm fully convinced that Beckham is a great player and will be great again some day.

2) Sale. The guy definitely still has nasty stuff and a good approach - his work in college, the minors, and late last year was no fluke. But unlike Thornton, who's got years of success and a good resume of ups and downs at the big league level to build from, Sale is struggling significantly probably for the first time in his baseball life. Relievers are hard to keep stable, so it's not clear Sale will be able to bounce back from the many and regular screw-ups he's put up thus year.

Especially because he's young, has minor league options, and is considered a key longterm asset, the Sox also might not let him. Sure they'll give him a bunch more chances because they want to win now and an effective Chris Sale could really help them do so. But if he can't go out and throw effectively, at some point he'll hurt the current team's chances too much and put too much of the future team at risk. Then, you may see him farmed out, maybe not to return until 2012.

3) Peavy. Given what Humber's done in the starts Peavy would have gotten, you can't argue his slow recovery has been a major factor in this dreadful start. But I don't expect Humber to remain at those levels all year and, much more importantly, I am not convinced this club has the post-season guns to win without Peavy back in his Cy Young form.

As I said, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks, despite flashes of great things for stretches, have been good but far from great the past three years. You can hope that, like 2005, you'd have a collection of good starters all in a great groove, but I can't count on that. Instead, I think the Sox best chance of post-season success will come with Peavy as a pure Ace, intensely carrying the rotation from the #1 slot. Behind him two of Buehrle, Floyd, Danks, Ed Jackson, and even Humber will have to be going great. And one of those guys will have to be capable as a #4.

Getting 2.5 strong arms out of those other 5 guys sounds very reasonable, but it all revolves around Peavy being the #1 we know he can be. Unfortunately, his injury history just leaves way too much uncertainty, meaning that this is one of the few areas even my optimistic view of the numbers can't be of much help in giving me faith.


But hey, that's not bad - three major question marks next to four solid areas and four not too far from where they need to be? Somehow that sounds a heck of a lot better than you'd expect from our 11-19 start. Given the overall talent I still see on this club, the way I can see them getting it done in every facet of the game, and the fact that neither Detroit or Minnesota look very good either - yeah, I'm still somehow confident in the White Sox in 2011. Even if no one else is.

-

Spring Break - Part IV

-

If ya missed it earlier this week, check out Part I here, Part II here, and Part III here.

One of the biggest moves the Sox made this off-season is one I didn't realize was even on the horizon and doesn't have an on-field effect on their 2011 club at all - the signing of Alexei to an extension that keeps him under Sox control through 2016 at a very reasonable price.

This kid last year went from "potential" to proven. Offensively and defensively. Sure, he still is the last guy you count on to produce at the plate in April, but at the end of the day, I'll take the steady and impressive end-of-year offensive numbers the Cuban Missile has consistently put up out of a middle infield position.

But more importantly, Alexei stepped up in a huge way defensively to become not just a plus fielding shortstop, but arguably the best one in baseball. In fact, at various times last year his advanced defensive metrics had him as the best overall defensive player in baseball (not just at SS).

Now this didn't get Alexei much more than a cursory nod by most people for the Gold Glove, but that's because the morons who vote on it went with Jeter, one of the more iffy fielders in the game. And the commentators all focused on Texas' youngster Andrus as the better alternative because of that team's run to the World Series.

Alexei's time could very well come. The Gold Gloves are extremely name-brand impressed and just as much about offense as anything. But given the way advanced defensive stats are coming into vogue, given the flashy way he plays Short, and given that he can be as fearsome with the bat as any SS in the AL, we could just see the Cuban Missile as a Gold Glove winner.

So to have this guy tied down for a good price (just over $8M per) for the foreseeable future is huge. Especially because he's still raw. Alexei has even greater upside than he's shown - 25+ HRs and .300 average is not at all beyond him. He certainly can be a far better base-runner - The Missile is definitely one of the fastest guys on the team, clearly he just can't figure out how to read pitchers. But you can't teach speed and while you can't teach SB instincts, you can train a guy up a lot better than he is now. Combine all that with the type of D Alexei was playing last year and what a franchise piece this kid is becoming.

And he may not be alone in his Gold Glove pursuits in the middle of the Sox infield. With offense illogically being such a major factor, Beckham will definitely enter the 2B discussions if he can reach the kind of potential he's shown.

Now sure, that sophomore slump was disappointing after what he did for long stretches as a rook. But look beyond the year-end numbers and check out these splits - .310 average after the All-Star Break, to go along with a .380 OBA and .497 Slugging Percentage. Those are WOW type numbers for a middle infielder. So if Beckham can do that for a whole year, he's going to get noticed. As in All Star and Gold Glove type notice.

Especially because Beckham has quietly and quickly turned himself into a heck of a fielding 2B. I couldn't tell you if his stats add up defensively, but just from watching him I've seen him do a lot of very impressive things. Remember too - this was his first year at the position. This season, maybe next, Beckham may break into the realm of the best fielding 2Bs... or at least near enough that his outstanding bat will make up for the difference when it comes Gold Glove time.

And how sweet of a thought that is. In baseball, much like the other major sports, success comes up the middle. Catching, pitching, center field, and of course your SS and 2B. If they can build on what they were doing in the 2nd half last year, the Sox middle infield could be as strong as any - offensively and defensively - in baseball. And it's all with guys who won't be leaving the Southside before 2015.

And know who else will be around until 2015, bringing both a plus glove and a healthy bat to the middle of our defense? Rios. While Dunn and Paulie will get the attention as the big boppers, the key to the Sox lineup and defense lies with this trio - Rios, Beckham, and Alexei. Their D allows all the money the Sox have invested in starting and relief pitching to do its job. And their athleticism allows the Sox to have a much more balanced, dynamic offensive attack.

The Sox, like most teams, will have speed in their leadoff spot. But one key factor to making a team a consistent offensive producer day-in and day-out is having speed in the 2, 5, 6, and 7 spots. That's where Beckham, Rios, and Alexei come in - they've got the bats to hit for a plus average and show dangerous enough power, so you're not giving up pure production in those lineup holes. But they also bring enough speed that Ozzie can steal them, can hit-and-run with them on base, or bunt them into scoring position. They also can take 2-3 bases on a hit, meaning you've got to string together far fewer good at-bats to get some runs across the plate.

I've said it a whole bunch around here, but after watching a ton of beer league softball type station-to-station slugging teams on the Southside and then watching more dynamic offenses such as in 2005, 2008, last year, and of course, whenever teams like the Twins, Rays, and Angels come into town, I've learned something about baseball success that I haven't seen talked about too often.

That's the importance of a consistent offense. Sure, the big boppers will score runs in bunches and make your overall stats look nice. But for every 12-4 win, you're gonna have a number of 2-1 losses because home runs, even from the best guys, just don't come with enough frequency. And if you've got those big sluggers, most coaches quit coaching and try to justify such by saying they didn't want to take the bat out of their big boys hands.

Well, that's idiotic. Even the best sluggers make far more outs than hits, and hit more singles than homers. So you shouldn't be basing your whole strategy on the least likely to occur event. Instead, you need to build your team with guys who can hit for average and get on base from the top to the bottom of the lineup. That allows you to get production in every inning and avoid a dry spell just because a key guy or two are slumping.

You also need speed and fundamentals, so that when the hits aren't coming (bad weather, tough pitcher, team slump, injuries, just one of those days...) you can still muscle across a few runs. Steals, bunts, hit-and-runs, taking advantage of errors, going first to third, sac flies, hitting behind runners... you do those kind of things and suddenly you can get a run or two without much in the way of hits.

That consistency not only allows you to squeak out a handful of wins when you don't have much for O, but I also think it keeps your players and team from getting into big, sustained slumps. If you're not hitting but draw a walk, steal a base, and score a key run, suddenly you're not as down on things, suddenly you're not battling so many demons. Same with if you can come up with a key bunt, a sac fly, or a cheap hit that only got through because the 3B was playing up for a bunt or the 2B was moving to cover 2nd.

It goes even more for the team - while losing always sucks, it's a lot easier to keep a winning vibe and some momentum if you lose a hard fought 4-3 game where you grinded out a couple of runs on a day it was clear you had nothing going. But if the team meekly goes up and down w/o ever really getting into the game, it takes something out of you. Do that a few times in a row and now it really starts to effect a team.

So, bringing it back to our strength up the middle, Rios, Beckham, and Alexei will be every bit as crucial to our success this year as Dunn and Paulie. They'll be the ones, along with Pierre and AJ, responsible for keeping our offense going when the fireworks get the day off. Their speed/average/pop combo will allow this lineup to play whatever game is needed that day.

Death by a thousand singles and doubles - we can do that. Tough out a 3-2 victory with great D, some manufactured runs, and some clutch hits - we can do that. Slug our way to a 12-9 victory - yep, we can handle that, too. And having the ability to do all those very different things is how you win enough of the 162 regular season and another 15 or so post-season games to bring home another title.


Please check in tomorrow for V.


-

Spring Break - Part III

-

If ya missed it earlier this week, check out Part I here and Part II here.

I referenced on Monday my contentment with Kenny not moving an SP or Quentin. Kind of interesting seeing as I had called for CQ's departure at the beginning of the off-season. Keeping our full stack of starting pitchers was a no-brainer (and I think the Sox felt that way too), but Quentin was not. He's not cheap ($5M this year), he's injury-prone (which means you can't even count on him for a conservative level of production), and with each passing middling season, his trade value takes a significant hit.

But you know what - I think the way it shook out, Kenny was right to hang on to Carlos (and not just because he and his Playmobile hair are my wife's favorite player on the Sox). With Paulie and Dunn around, CQ no longer is being counted on to be the primary offensive force on this team. And even if either of those guys stumbles, Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all provide the potential to be real difference makers in the lineup. Throw in a pair of always useful vets in AJ and Pierre, and suddenly the Sox are in a place to very much win w/o a great deal of production from Quentin.

Now that initially had me thinking that this made him expendable, but that was based on the fact that I didn't think the Sox had the payroll room left to add pieces like Crain and Ohman to give them the pen they needed. And I'd much rather be a bit light in the OF than the bullpen. However, given that we found the money necessary for everything, now I'm thinking it was a good move keeping CQ's potential around.

There's not a great deal of pressure on him, which should be a nice help to the notoriously introverted and intense Carlos. But there still exists a world of potential - in 2008 he was flat out the best offensive player in the American League when he got hurt on Sept 1st.

And to win a championship, you need that kind of potential. No team has hoisted the trophy w/o having a few guys come out and absolutely overproduce for what they were expected of. In 2005 Contreras, Cotts, and Politte jump to mind, as does Everett's first half or even Uribe's defense at short.

While none of these guys ever matched that high level of production again (tho Contreras was pretty nasty in the first half of 2006), for that brief period in 2005 they lived up to every bit of potential they had. And there's no way we're champs without that happening.

So for 2011 to be just as magical, you need a few guys to come through with career years. It's even more impactful when that career year comes out of a guy like CQ, who's ceiling is MVP-caliber, as we saw in 2008. I mean if AJ or Morel have a career year, it'd be awesome. But their .300-20-80 line isn't gonna carry us the way CQ's 30 and 100 in 5 months of play did.

And don't think that because he's scuffled a bit in 2009 and 2010 that Carlos isn't capable of being that beast again. The kid still has it in him to hit 35 jacks and drive in 115 RBI. Sheesh, last year with all the nagging injuries and slumps and whatnot, he still hit 26 jacks and drove in 87 in only 131 games. Give this guy 155 games just at the same level he was last year and we're talking 31 and 103.

So is it really a leap to say a fully healthy, dialed-in Quentin could come through with 35 and 115? Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that's what we should count on - not at all. See, that's the beauty of the Dunn signing - with it, we don't have to sit here and say we need those kind of numbers out of CQ to have a shot, like we did going into last season.

Instead, what I'm saying is that between Paulie, Dunn, CQ, Rios, and even Alexei and Beckham, I'm guessing we're gonna get at least 2 guys producing at legit middle of the order levels, with another guy doing well enough to at least protect them. And that'd be as good or better than what we had in 2005 and 2008, when it was really only one big bat and one solid guy providing protection.


So yeah, my dad intrigued me when he started talking about dealing a guy like Ed Jackson and Quentin to the Yanks for Gardner (who I absolutely love - a blazing speedster with good OBA and average potential who doesn't seem to be very highly valued just yet) and some of their top shelf prospects. He figured we could grab a guy like Freddy to hold down the #4 spot until Peavy got back, then slip into the #5 and leave us in the same place we were last year when we had our month-plus hot streak.

At the time what gave me pause was giving up a frontline SP with Peavy being such a question mark. Also, the fact is that rarely do Yankees prospects live up to the hype (including their current catching uber-prospect, who seems to be too big to be an everyday catcher, even if everyone is convinced he can rake).

But now? As much as I'd love to have Gardner on the Southside for the next 10 years sparking our club like no other leadoff hitter we've ever had (all due respect to Pods and Pierre, but they never had the total AVG, OBA, and speed combo that Gardner does), I'm happy that Kenny stayed pat on CQ. His high end potential slotted into a reasonable price and 6th spot in the order, as well as in a role (right-handed hitting right fielder) that can easily be filled with a mid-season trade, means we're in the ideal low-risk, high reward situation.


Please check out Part IV here and soon, Part V.

-

Spring Break - Part II

-

If ya missed it, check out Part I here yesterday.

Someone made the point that Reinsdorf is betting on the fans with his decision to open the coffers and allow a $120M payroll this season. A huge part of the Sox bottom line comes in the walk-up for home games, a notoriously fickle group of fans who will stay away in droves when the Sox don't make it worth their while. So if they don't come, the ownership group is going to take a hit in 2011.

That's one of the reasons this increased payroll pumps me up on a ton of levels. Obviously the biggest is that, as I mentioned yesterday, this payroll bump allowed the Sox to retain or acquire pretty much all the pieces they need to enter the season looking as good as any Southside squad I can remember.

But equally important to me is that it shows that Reinsdorf hasn't forgotten the hard-learned lesson of the mid-90s to the mid-2000s. Following the strike, Jerry and his ownership group worked retroactively, only spending the money that was justified by to-date revenues. The result was a mid-market payroll playing in the 3rd largest market in America. And as you all know, Chicago is a diehard sports and diehard baseball town. And the Cubs, as much as they were a nice draw, sucked hard for most of that time.

So it was a bit of a travesty that the White Sox didn't have much of a payroll, especially as free agency became a bigger and bigger deal. What was even more frustrating is that the Sox weren't horrible - they were just mediocre enough to make you think that had they had some extra money - and spent it wisely... I'm looking at you Jamie Navarro and Albert Belle - they could have done more than win one ultimately disappointing division title between 1995 and 2005.

Then in the off-season before 2005 a light went on - Jerry allowed Kenny to push the limits of the payroll beyond what was safe, into the territory that w/o winning, ownership receipts would definitely take a hit. But Kenny wasn't going all Jim Hendry on us, using that extra money to make a media-driven splash that ultimately would play havoc with his on-field team.

Instead, Kenny took those extra millions and found all the small pieces that one needs to win a title. AJ, El Duque, Hermanson, Iguchi - pieces that without the Sox would still be in the same realm of pathetic as the Cubs. That's yet another major reason I'm pumped about this off-season's payroll bump - cause Kenny once again used it for those extra pieces that any championship team needs.

Sure he spent on Dunn and Paulie, but those were no media-splash signings, those were backbone producers with as long a history of production as anyone in baseball who fit exactly into a need we have. The rest went to the AJs, Crains, Castros, and Ohmans of the world. Guys you've got to have to survive the 162-game grind and the equally challenging month-long playoffs.

So it's got me pumped to see that Jerry realized one of the simplest rules of business and investing - you've got to spend money to make money. Before Reinsdorf's strategy was to only spend what he knew he could make, then hope for a breakthrough team that would increase attendance and whatnot, and only THEN, with full coffers, up the payroll.

Now Reinsdorf gets that instead he has to have faith in both his General Manager (and Manager) and the fans. Give Kenny the money to get the players for Ozzie, and they'll produce the kind of team that your millions of diehard Sox fans will happily cough up to see. Since 2005, the Sox have sported a very healthy payroll each year and the fans have responded in kind.

It hasn't always been a full house, but it's night and freakin day from the pre-title days, and it's not just because this team won a championship 5 seasons ago. It's because even in the down years, the Sox have spent the money (and spent it wisely) to the point that Sox fans feel good about going out to the park.

Sox pre-season optimism since 2005 hasn't been a product of naivety and ignorance, as our Northside brethren have perfected. Instead it's been because every year the Sox have had a seemingly solid core surrounded by good role players that if things broke their way, could replicate the magic of 2005. In 2006 and 2010, for large parts of the year they did so (both teams were in 1st at the All-Star Break). In 2008, Game 163 was enough to prove us optimists right. And even in 2007 and 2009, the Sox did enough that all hope wasn't lost... even when those seasons flat-lined the future still remained promising.


Does this mean I support everything that Sox management has done since the title? Of course not - I wrote a bunch last year questioning whether the Kenny/Ozzie combo really had done all that much outside of bringing us 2005 (for which we'll be forever grateful). But the ultimate judgment of their administration is still on-going. With the work they did this off-season to build off the ray of hope we got from that June-July run last year, I'm saying the weight of evidence is leaning back their way. I'm once again in an appreciative mood of Kenny/Ozzie and ultimately, Reinsdorf and his ownership group.

So, to show I'm not just talk I've anted up - I bought seven sets of four seats each to various Half-Priced Mondays throughout the year. I'd suggest you do the same - there are 9 on the schedule, covering every month, and they feature some solid match-ups. And tickets aren't cheap these days - so the half price thing really makes a difference - coming in at only $25 for a bleacher seat (good luck finding a solid seat to any other team in this town for that price).

But not only am I more than happy to do so because I love the games and because I'm uber-pumped about the 2011 Sox, but also because I like supporting an ownership group and management team that has shown a willingness to invest in itself and the fans. So check the Sox schedule and carve out a few nights to come on down and throw in your share... and plan on watching a hell of a Sox club while doing so.

Please go here for Part III and here for Part IV, and check in Friday for Part V.

-