Wednesday, April 22, 2009

12% There

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The start of the year is one of the most crucial times for any team, as early struggles often lead to players forcing things and a further decline, while success out of the gate builds confidence and allows players to get into a comfort zone.

That's why I'm pretty happy about this team, despite the pedestrian 7-6 record. Individually, a lot looks really good. And the team has been in 10 of the 13 games they've played, all against solid competition. On top of that, no one in the division has gotten off to a hot start or looked particularly fearsome. Detroit can score, Kansas City can pitch, but it remains to be seen if either has the complete team necessary to come out ahead in a 162-game marathon.

As for the Sox, I've been pleased with a number of things, but probably the most encouraging has been the work of the pen. Granted it's early, but it's nice to see Jenks, Linebrink, Dotel, and Thorton all looking in top form right off the bat. The source of concern is whether or not they can do it all season, but you've got to start somewhere, and so far so good.

Not as enthused by the back of the pen, but not terribly unhappy either. Mac is gone, which is actually encouraging. Granted they'd given him a ton of shots before, but it was nice to see that Guillen and Kenny didn't have much for patience. That's how you've got to handle the pen - see if a guy has got it, if not, move on to the next option. Let's hope Egbert is a find, but if not, I don't want to see them keep him around if he's not effective. Move on to the next guy.

I've been pleased with Carrasco and Richard, even if both have been inconsistent. Carrasco got murdered by the Twins in his first outing, but stepped up big in taking one for the team, throwing 3 innings to allow Ozzie to save his pen. Since then he's been unscored upon in four straight outings. If he can be a reliable innings eater, the Sox will be in good shape. You need guys who can keep you in a game you're losing, allowing our potent offense to get us back into it.

Richard has been great in three outings, pretty poor in four others. Still, it looks like he's got what it takes - I think his struggles are just a result of getting used to the irregular work of a long reliever. For now though, it will help for him to get used to big league hitters. I just hope he doesn't languish in middle relief for too much longer. I'd prefer to see him sometime soon sent back down in AAA to continue his development as a starter. Still, from what I've seen, Richard has the stuff to be a good starter someday, which is what you want in the end.

The starting pitching has been fairly solid, at least 4/5ths of the guys. Danks, Buerhle, and Floyd have picked up where they left off last year, and that's a real good thing. Colon has as well - being surprisingly effective in his first two starts, just as he was in seven starts last year. That's extremely encouraging - it's clear that Colon has the pedigree, it was just a matter of having anything left and whether he could stay on the field. The latter remains to be seen, but at only 35 and without even 100 IP in any of the past four seasons, Colon should be fairly refreshed. It wouldn't surprise me to see him have a real bounce back year. So far, so good.

And then there's Contreras. Even when he's going right, he's a pitch or two away from bad things. And right now, things aren't going right - that's resulted in three losses, which just happen to coincide with the three games the Sox have not been in. Contreras needs to be in the right place with all his different pitches, with his focus, and with his control, if he's going to have success. After so much time off, he's just not there, and it's killing the Sox.

How much longer can they hope to run him out there in the hopes that it comes back? Ideally you'd like to farm him out, let him get his feel back, and then get him back up once he's there. It's actually not an unreasonable plan - if Contreras would go along with it, that is. The Sox can't force him to pitch in the minors, but if he agrees, there's no question he'd clear waivers (thanks to his $10M+ salary this year). A few no pressure games to get back to where he needs to be might be all it takes to see a return of a strong SP. In the meantime, it'd be nice to see what Richards has got as a regular starter.

The Sox aren't quite ready to consider something like that, but if Contreras continues to crap the bed these next couple starts, they have to consider it. You can't afford an automatic loss every 5 days in what will certainly be another tight race.

Offensively, I'm equally as pleased with the Sox early performances. But first I'll dispense with my one real concern. Oddly, Alexei Ramirez is not it. The guy is an uber-talent, and he showed last year he can start horribly and then turn it around. I have faith that will happen and would advise everyone to have a lot of patience with The Missile - he'll reward us in the end.

The guy I am concerned about is Thome. Not in a major way, just in Ozzie's insistence to hit him #4. He no longer is capable - he's a .240 hitter who strikes out a lot, and is only getting worse. I know the Sox don't want to get too righty-heavy through the middle, but with the way CQ, Dye, and Paulie are hitting, it doesn't make sense to give the pitcher a break in the form of Thome in the middle.

The frustrating part is that Thome is still valuable. He can still drive the ball, he comes up with some big hits, and he will make pitchers work hard else they walk him or see one fly out of the park. We can certainly afford another Thome season like last year - .245, 30+ HRs, 90 R, 90 RBI, and 90 walks. In fact, that'd be great. We just can't have that out of the cleanup spot, not with the other options we've got. Instead, Thome needs to be slotted back into the #6 spot, where the above numbers become a nice asset (especially in front of solid back-of-the-order producers like Alexei and AJ).

Otherwise, the lineup is looking good. CQ doesn't seem to have any issues with the wrist and has picked up exactly where he left off last year. Dye continues to be his normal productive self (so under-appreciated, including by me) and Paulie seems to have rediscovered his swing (can't say I was sure of that, by any means, but it also isn't a surprise). If those guys can be .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI types (very reasonable for all three), the Sox will score their runs, and will do it with some consistency as well.

I'm also encouraged by the play of first year starters Fields and Getz. Fields started hot and then cooled, but he's been focused on getting base hits and drawing walks, which is the correct way to approach hitting. We know the power will come - get that average and OBA where it needs to be, and Fields will be an asset. Similarly with Getz, especially as a lead-off hitter, it's nice to see that he's not afraid to draw a walk. There's a lot of pressure to produce from the top, which leads many a young hitter to be overly aggressive. But Getz has taken what's been given to him, gettin his hits and base-on-balls. This kid has definitely got a future if he can keep it up.

And always important to an Ozzie squad is the bench - so far, so good. Corky Miller has only 7 ABs, but he's gotten 3 hits (including a double), a pair of walks 2 R, and 3 RBI during that limited time up. It won't last, but even just flashes of offense are a bonus, as his real value is as a strong defensive catcher. Betemit has done well enough, with 5 hits in 17 ABs, and hasn't even flashed his surprisingly impressive power (in the Cell, he'll hit some jacks). And focusing on Lillibridge's .150 average ignores what his job is - to get on base. The kid can fly, he just needs to get to first. Well, despite that horrendous average, he's got a .370 OBA, thanks to 7 walks (second on the team to Quentin's 8). The bat's got to come around a little bit, but if he keeps his OBA above .350, then Lillibridge is doing everything the Sox could hope.

Finally there's BA, who you can make a similar argument for. I'd like to see him look better in his ABs, but he has drawn 6 walks in limited plate appearances, giving him a great .387 OBA. Again, considering they're slotting him back at #9, if he keeps that OBA up, I can deal with the .240 average. Any hope that Owens would steal some of his PT have, for the time, been dismissed in the face of BA's great work this year against righties. In fact, if BA could hit lefties (whom he murdered last year for 8 HRs in 80 ABs) like he's hit righties so far (6 for 19, 4 walks), we'd have a franchise CF.

The one area I haven't been able to get a gauge on is the defense, because I haven't been able to watch a lot of Sox games on TV yet, which is about the only way to fairly judge them. But the early reports seem very strong - Fields and Getz have been solid and Alexei looks good at short. And I haven't heard anything about Dye losing a step in the OF or Quentin's goofy approach to flyballs hurting the club. Clearly having BA in there in center everyday is a real boon. But more to come once I've seen a bit more of the Sox myself.

1 comment:

  1. I know he has played pretty well so far, but I'm worried about Fields. I feel like he started well, both at third and offensively, but things have been down over the last week. He is in a 0-13 slump with 5 Ks over the last three games. He wasn't able to get a bunt down last night with runners on 1st and 2nd (he tried twice), and has booted some balls at third. Is this just a slump, or is it a trend for the future? Its alright for a youngster to struggle, but not batting #2. For all the talk about the need for a leadoff hitter, what about a solid #2 who can bunt?

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