Sox Opening Day Roster - Pitchers Analysis

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Pitching and defense win championships - no question. And I think the Sox under Kenny Williams get that - sometimes they get caught up in the "big bats" idea, but for the most part they've invested their money and resources into ensuring they've got a strong defense and a deep pitching staff. Sometimes they don't execute the plan correctly (see 2006 and 2007), but the effort is there.

I think this year both the effort and execution will prove to have been successful. The Sox have a nice core starting staff returning and a number of options - both old and young - to fill out the back end. The bullpen also has a nice core back, though I was screaming all off-season for more depth - to no avail. As it stands, the pen is gonna need to stay healthy and have everyone pitch as they are expected, if not a bit better.

I'm sorry, but never in the history of baseball has that ever happened. The only thing I will ever guarantee about any team before the season is that their pen will NOT end up looking as it was expected to. Instead, my hope for the Sox is that a few mystery guys - a la Cotts and Politte in 05 - step up into the inevitable holes that emerge. If not, the Sox won't have success - few teams are good enough elsewhere to make up for not having a strong pen, and the SouthSiders aren't one of them.

But if the pen does work out - if it is both closing out wins and keeping the team in it when they're tied or behind, then I firmly believe the Sox will be able to make up for any offensive issues, even some back of the rotation issues, and put themselves into the postseason yet again.


STARTING ROTATION

#1 - Buehrle

Not a whole lot to say, this guy is as steady as they come. Sure there are ups and downs along the way, and some years end up slightly better than others, but pretty much you know this guy is gonna stay healthy, be effective, and give you a chance to win most of his starts. Ideally you'd like to see one of his upside years where he dips the ERA into the low 3s and keeps it there all season. But even if he's in the high 3s, the Sox will be fine.

#2 - Floyd

A lot of people aren't buying on this kid yet and on some level I don't blame them. He struggled mightily with the Phillies and didn't earn a chance with the Sox until the wheels fell off of their other starting options in 2007. However, Floyd has been a beast since then and has the pedigree to make it stick. Like Buehrle, you'd love to see a low 3 ERA for the season, but even just a low 4. ERA would be fine if he's eating up innings.

#3 - Danks

Because this isn't the East Coast, no one has made a big deal about this kid. Too bad, because not only is he a talent, but the Sox deserve a ton of credit for how they've handled him. In fact, the way they've brought him along slowly, yet done so without any fanfare or second guessing, is a real feather in their cap. In 2007, Guillen wouldn't let him go deep into games and Kenny decided to shut him down late in the year. In 2008, Guillen gave Danks a bit more slack, but still wouldn't ride him like he does most of his SPs, and the result was Danks having legs into the playoffs.

I'm curious to see if they let the kid go all-out this year, throwing 220+ innings, or if they continue to ease him into that sort of workhorse mode. Either way, the hope is that Danks can continue to be a low to mid 3 ERA guy in whatever inning total he's getting.

#4 - Contreras

For whatever reason, I'm not surprised this guy defied science and came back in the best shape of his life. He seems like a warrior - something about surviving Cuba, getting out, overcoming some initial issues, and then finally becoming the Ace he knew he was showed me that Contreras had something extra.

So it doesn't surprise me that after some struggles (due to a divorce) and a nasty injury ahead of his last significant contract, Contreras would kill himself to get back better than ever. The hope is that he's rewarded with a healthy run of it this year - because if he is, I think he'll be a highly effective arm. He's got good stuff, he just needs to have his head in it. But after what he's gone through, I think his head will be all the way up in it. If he avoids the big injury, then look for High 3s, low 4s, and a ton of innings - exactly what every team would kill for out of their fourth starter.

#5 - Colon

I said before that I'd like to see 35 starts out of Colon and Contreras, and I'm probably still fine with that number. While Contreras scares me due to another major injury, Colon seems more the type to have arm annoyances that keep him out for a start here or there or maybe a couple 15-day DL stints. The hope is that any nagging injuries don't keep him from being effective. I'll be fine if this guy only starts 12 games, as long a he gives us 12 good outings. For the tiny sum of money their spending and with the young arms they have behind him, Colon is almost gravy. 10-20 starts with an ERA right around 4 and I'll be thrilled. No question he's got the stuff - he just needs to be physically there.

#6 - Richard

I list a #6 starter, because in reality, most teams essentially have to have a #6 these days. Few teams actually go through the year without calling on someone not in their original rotation to make 10-20 starts. With Contreras and Colon around and the standard injuries any SP can befall, I think Richard is going to be in line for about that many starts, if not more.

The good news is I think he's up to it. He reminded me of Danks in 07 - he had good stuff, but would hit a wall after a few innings and couldn't recover. Toward the end of the year Richard actually began working through that wall and started to look like a real asset.

In the short term, I think he'll be a good long arm who can keep the Sox respectable for a few innings. And I think those stints will give him some confidence and experience, which he'll need when he eventually transitions into the rotation. And not having to work all 30 starts should allow Richard to take the next step without compromising either the team or his development. I can really see this guy following Danks' path and putting up a solid season this year, before breaking out next year.

BULLPEN

CL - Jenks

As I've mentioned before, I think Jenks has that little something extra that will make him a great closer for the rest of his career. He showed signs of it with the way he stepped into the fire as a rookie and never faltered straight through the World Series, but I've been just as impressed with how he's continued to get it done, without much hoopla, the past three seasons.

I think Jenks has matured a ton and now has evolved into a strong pitcher, not just a flame-thrower. I hope the Sox lock him up, because barring some unforesee injury, he's looking like a mighty consistent closer type who you can just pencil in and forget about.

SU - Linebrink

The wheels fell of the pen last year when Linebrink got hurt. Until that point, they had been one of the best in baseball, after that Sox relievers were some of the worst. It makes sense too, because when you lose a key guy, everyone has to adjust their role and you end up getting worse at four or five different pen positions.

If Linebrink can stay healthy and effective all season, I have full faith the Sox pen will be fine. Really - he's that key to me. Sure they'll need some other breaks, but given the talent they have and the efforts they've put into their pen, I think it will work out. But you need this guy to be a money set-up guy, with an ERA in the 2s and few blown 8th inning opportunities.

LHP - Thornton

So far he's put up a solid year, an off year, and a stellar year with the Sox. Is he the standard up-and-down reliever, or was 2007 just a bit of a fluke? This year will tell - if Thornton can keep his ERA in the 2s or low 3s and put a hurting on lefties, then I'm gonna have a good feeling about the Sox pen. Especially if Thornton is getting those big Ks with one out and a runner third. He seems to have the right approach and has long been a highly talented arm - this is his season to establish himself as an elite middle reliever.

RHP - Dotel

I loved the Linebrink and Dotel signings last year because I fully believe you can never have enough bullpen depth. It's why I would have gone out and gotten at least one if not two more strong veteran SPs this off-season. Dotel is the perfect example - he's been a primary set-up guy and a closer, and yet the Sox have built the depth necessary to turn him into a situational righty and 7th inning type.

For the most part Dotel has thrived in it. Sure he has some mental letdowns - the perfect examples being after he gets the one-out K with a runner on third, only to give up a two-out extra base-hit to the next guy. But he also has been good at chewing innings to keep a small deficit from growing, allowing the Sox to get back into it, as well as in coming up with some big outs against righties in late inning situations.

Ideally, Dotel remains in this 7th inning righty role, where he's one of the best in the game, and isn't called upon to set-up or close, where he becomes shaky.

MR - MacDougal

I love that they kept this guy around. With any successful pen, you need at least one or two guys who nobody was counting on to step up and make good. Mac could easily be that guy, as he had a nice run with the Royals and then in his first year with the Sox, where he was a frontline reliever. The past two years he's been a total mess, but let's hope that Coop has figured it, because if MacDougal can contribute a strong ERA, some big Ks, and not walk half the batters he faces, the Sox are gonna be in good shape. But if he can't get it done, farm him out and look for someone who else who can.

I really believe you've got to keep on rolling guys through the pen and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. If a guy is a real prospect or has some history (like a MacDougal) then cut him a bit more slack. But once it becomes clear he can't do it, then move on to the next guy. Just up those odds of finding that fluke guy who steps up and solidifies your pen. Basically - I hate Adam Russell and all he stands for - if a guy can't get it done, quit giving him any more opportunities and instead use those innings to see if someone else can make it happen.

MR - Carrasco

After a stellar July & August, where he was key in keeping the Sox pen from fully imploding, in September Carrasco returned to the mediocre form that has kept him a minor league journeyman into his 30s. So were those two months just a cheap hot streak? Very possibly, but as with MacDougal, I don't mind the Sox taking a chance on him.

When Carrasco was on, he was very valuable, working long outings, situational righty spots, and even setting up. You need to get lucky on a few relievers to have success, so I don't mind seeing if Carrasco has it again this year. But as I said with Mac - they've got to have a short leash on him. If it isn't happening, farm him out and see if you can find another youngster or journeyman who can get it right. The Sox have a lot of other guys who might do it - give em a shot and hope.


In all, I'm feeling good about the Sox pitching, about as good as you can at the start of a season. So much can happen, so many guys will throw differently than you hoped or expected. But I think the Sox are close to having enough depth to overcome the letdowns and injuries and be a top pitching team yet again. I'd like to see some more depth, but hopefully some youngsters step up or Kenny uses the extra payroll space they have (having cut about $20M from last year) to ensure that the pen is dominating behind a starting staff that gives you a shot to win every night.