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First and foremost, don't give up on the Sox just yet. Last year the Sox left their early May 4-game series in Toronto having scored 5 total runs and lost all four games. That would be good for their 7th loss in a row, dropping their record to 14-17.
But from there, the Sox started to turn it on. They won four of their next five, hiccupped to a 3-game losing streak, then won 8 straight. They had a 7-game win streak to start June and were floating around first place the rest of the year.
Can we expect, or even just hope for, a similar turn-around this season after a similarly disheartening ass-kicking by the Hosers? It certainly helps that, like last year, no one in the Central has gotten off to much of a start. Detroit and Kansas City both clearly have significant issues, issues that should keep them from ever running away and hiding. Especially because the Sox have proven that they own Detroit head-to-head and because Kansas City has no experience with sustained winning (remember they started out great in 2003 before falling off completely in the 2nd half).
However, the Sox only hope at righting this ship lies in a complete change to the offense. Unfortunately at this time of year, that change can't be had through trades or free agency. Even as we get nearer to the deadline, there won't be much for the top-of-the-order impact bats the Sox need.
So instead, that change is gonna have to come internally. As evidenced by the re-signing of Pods, a guy who couldn't cut it on the Rockies, one of the worst teams in the worst division in the worst league in baseball, the Sox don't have a lot of other guys besides the ones on the current roster.
What's that leave then?
It leaves two possibilities. The first, which is one the Sox generally prefer to pursue, is to sit on their fat, entitled asses and wait for the bats to heat up. Ozzie and Kenny love to talk about how it's not their fault that the highly paid, accomplished lineup they've put together isn't getting it done, but that if we all just stick our fingers up our butt like they love to, hopefully the magic leprechauns will sprinkle hitting dust on our bats and get the offense back on track.
In case you couldn't tell from my tone - I don't exactly agree with this philosophy. And to be honest, on some level neither really do Kenny or Ozzie. Kenny has constantly re-fitted his team each off-season, almost every time with an eye on changing the attitude and approach. Similarly, Ozzie has shown he'll fabricate a media event and even -gasp!- shake up his lineup (as he successfully did in mid-May last season) to try to change the Sox fortunes.
But my sarcastic bitterness towards here does have some real basis. Since Ozzie took over in 2004, the Sox have had exactly one half-season where the offense lived up to the expectations. That was the first half of 2006, where nearly every bat in the Sox lineup was clicking. Top to bottom - Pods, Iguchi, Thome, Paulie, Dye, AJ, and Crede all were having amazing years at the plate prior to the All-Star Break.
Every single other season - 2004, 2005, 2nd half of 2006, 2007, and last year - the Sox have struggled immensely at the plate, despite always having highly paid vets with big bats and real talent throughout their lineup.
So what would I do, if not wait around for Leprechauns? Two things:
1. The Sox need to fire Greg Walker.I've met the guy - he could not have been nicer. I saw him at a bar and just wanted to shake his hand, thank him for the World Series title. He was out relaxing, so I didn't want to take up his time. But the guy wouldn't let me walk away - he made it clear I wasn't bothering him and that he appreciated the chance to talk a bit. I will always, always consider him one of the classier guys out there, will always appreciate the role he played in bringing me the dream that was 2005, and will always wish him the best.
But unfortunately, his time has come. And I don't believe it's all his fault. Still, the players have failed to get it done, so someone new needs to come in and do things differently. And don't tell me they're gonna elevate the schmuck at AA or AAA. Or a roving hitting instructor that's good buddies with someone in the organization.
No, I want the Sox to go outside of the organization and find someone who can bring the right approach to hitting to their entire system. I'm sick of EVERY SINGLE PROSPECT we have coming up just to hit .220 and strike out half the time. And obviously I'm sick of our proven big leaguers having more bad years than good or even average ones.
I want a hitting coach who understands the different approaches you take with the bases empty, with one out and a runner on third, or with no outs and a guy on second. I want a hitting coach who preaches patience when the pitcher is in a jam. Remember, when there are runners on and the pitcher is worried about making a mistake, every pitch he throws is one more chance that he succumbs to the pressure to do to much and serves up a juicer.
So don't go swinging at the first pitch unless you're absolutely confident you can drive it. Wait and let that mistake come to you. Worst case scenario, you make the pitcher throw you three straight high-demand perfect pitches, wearing him out and showing your teammates his best stuff.
I hate to see Walker go and don't think this will solve all that ails the Sox, but hopefully it's the first of two steps that eventually will.
2. The Sox need to change their offensive philosophy.This is why I say it's not all Walker's fault - because Walker isn't the guy who determines how the Sox approach the game from an offensive standpoint. That's all on Kenny and Ozzie, and I'm damn sick of the way they've done things, most frustratingly because they pretend to preach something different than what they execute.
Simply put, the Sox should be looking to play small. Kenny's already committed a lot of money and resources to having a great starting staff, a deep and effective pen, and one of the better defenses in the game. So the next obvious logical step is to create an offense that can compliment that low-scoring approach you're already taking.
It starts with getting the right guys. When are the only times the Sox have had any success? In 2005, the first half of 2006, and last year. What did all of those teams have in common?
Proven capable veteran hitters at the top of the lineup. In 2005 and early 2006, it was Pods and Iguchi. As much as Pods is a ghost of himself now, in 2005 and 2006, he was a potent lead-off hitter, batting .290 with a solid OBA and an impressive ability to get around the bases. Similarly, Iguchi was hitting a stable .280+, flashing occasional power, and making sure to have good at-bats whenever Pods got on ahead of him.
Last year the Sox showed that it's not about speed or OBA at the top, it's about good professional baseball hitters. The OC and AJ didn't bring much for speed and neither hit for a great average nor got on base a lot. Still, the Sox won with them hitting 1-2 because they new exactly how to approach each at-bat to get something out of it. They saw pitches, made the pitchers work, and were sure to have productive at-bats whenever the Sox were threatening.
So this off-season, Kenny got rid of the OC (fine, we both wanted to go our separate ways) and, along with Ozzie, decided to move AJ back down the lineup. Replacing these two guys who helped carry you to an improbably division title last year? Unproven rookies and journeyman. And the result? The worst offense in the American League, thanks in large part to a collection of this collection of garbage who've hit 1-2:
Getz - .238 w/ a .296 OBA
Fields - .224 w/ a .302 OBA
Wise - .238 w/ a .238 OBA
Pods - .271 w/ a .294 OBA
Lillibridge - .162 w/ a .267 OBA
Nix - .241 w/ a .324 OBA
Take a look at those numbers - what a load of putrid crap. But what the hell did Kenny think would happen when those were your lead-off and #2 options - in my mind the two most important spots in your entire lineup.
I don't even mind those guys - Between Getz and Nix, I think the Sox could have a real strong 2B platoon, and eventually at least one, if not two good 2Bs. Fields has shown flashes, but still needs to come up with some consistency. With a better hitting coach and less pressure (say, if he was batting 9th instead of 2nd), he could be a viable starting 3B. Wise and Pods both could be valuable 5th OFs - the type who can spark a team every few games (a la Pablo Ozuna). Even Lillibridge has a role, thanks to his positional flexibility, great speed, and good eye. Again, someone who needs some help with consistency, but could be a valuable sub.
What I mind is that Kenny figured that an offense that had struggled almost non-stop for the past five seasons was somehow gonna overcome that collection of garbage at the top of the order. That is the type of retarded wishful thinking that keeps teams in the throws of mediocrity year in and year out.
Instead, Kenny needed to find a way to get himself a legit lead-off hitter to anchor the lineup. And together with Guillen, they should have realized that until one of the kids proved themselves fully capable over a few months of good ball, that AJ would have to suffice in the #2 slot, just as he successfully did last year.
Most frustrating with all of this is that Kenny seems to have built the rest of his team right. They've got enough bats in the middle, they've got plenty of pitching (I'm convinced Richard will be very solid and that Colon will hold up well enough, while the pen remains potent at least until we near the trade deadline), and they've got a nice defense.
But they are missing anything that even remotely resembles a table-setter, and that's lead to every single other aspect of the offense looking horrendous. I'll happily point to Juan Pierre's .400 average and more-than-capable replacement of Manny as the most obvious answer to what lead-off guys were out there, but I'm sure there are others. Remember, Pods wasn't "on the block" when Kenny got him. If he could do it then, he could do it again. He just chose not to.
I'm not just blaming Kenny here, though. While his plan was flawed, it might still have worked out OK if Ozzie didn't have his head up his ass. As I mentioned, the Sox have struggled offensively for all but three months of the last 6 seasons. However, they've been able to achieve Win-Loss success twice in that period despite of this.
One of those times was last year, where ONLY because the division was so weak could the Sox get away with their "wait-and-hope" offensive philosophy. In a better division, the Sox would have won fewer games and would have been much farther out of the playoff hunt - in short, just another in a long line of disappointing seasons on the Southside.
The other time was obviously in 2005, where Ozzie actually played the type of ball he supposedly was brought in to manage. After 2004, Kenny cleared house, dumping one-dimensional hitters CLee and Valentin and replacing them with more dynamic types like Pods and Iguchi. Pods stormed out of the gates, getting on base and running absolutely wild. Iguchi executed his #2 role to perfection, bunting, hitting behind runners, working counts so Pods could run. Just like that, an offense approach was instilled into the whole lineup.
Besides Konerko, everyone was trying to do those little things - sluggers like Dye and Everett, grinders like AJ and Rowand, even inconsistent back of the order staples like Crede and Uribe. And this approach was heightened by the bench presence of guys like Ozuna, Timo, Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, and Widger. All of those guys epitomized the little things approach, and they all got loads of playing time that year because of the success they had in doing so.
The result - the Sox won consistently all season, except for the small window when Pods got hurt, leading the team away from its small ball approach. They didn't score a ton of runs, but they still won a ton of games. Coincidence? Of course not - that's the point of small ball - that it allows you to score the runs you need when you need them.
And when does small ball work best? When it's combined with great pitching, great defense, and enough big bats to take advantage of the opportunities that small ball creates. Hmmm... I'd say the Sox are pretty much the perfect combination of those factors.
In fact, I can't stress those factors enough, especially the big bats to make the other team pay. That's often forgotten in small ball, but it's a major factor. Because, as I've mentioned here before, small ball isn't just about manufacturing one run. It's about putting pressure on the other team by creating scoring chances of your own.
Ideally, you get that runner on, steal second to up the pressure on the pitcher, move the runner over, and when while the pitcher remains distracted by the runner on third and is worrying too much about being perfect and keeping him from scoring, a big bat takes advantage of a mistake pitch to double into the gap. Now the pitcher is really rattled while the hitters are riding some nice momentum. Next thing you know, there's a walk and a a three-run homer. Just like that, a leadoff single turns into a 4-run inning, all because you're playing small and putting the pressure on the pitcher.
On the other hand, waiting around for the big home run leads to an inconsistent offense that can score more runs over the long haul, but doesn't get them at the right times. You win a lot of 12-4 games, but lost a lot of 3-2 games. Sound like the Sox? It's what they've been doing for the most part under Ozzie Guillen - especially in their bad times.
It started in 2006, when small-ballers Rowand, Everett, Willie Harris, Blum, and Timo weren't brought back from the championship team. Next the Sox got off to a hot start offensively, with sluggers Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Crede all lighting up the scoreboard. Pods and Iguchi also were hitting as well as they ever had. Small ball become unnecessary, even senseless, given how well everyone was swinging the bat.
But then, like always happens with a hot offense, the bats cooled. Pods got hurt, the sluggers slowed down, and combined with some significant pitching problems, the Sox went from being one of the best teams in baseball to one of the worst - a tailspin that lasted throughout all of 2007.
Not once in that time did Ozzie change his approach back to the small ball that he had so much success with in 2005. Sure, some of it was that he had the wrong guys. But more of it was the fact that neither he nor Kenny truly believed in it. They've even said as much, arguing that it's foolish to play a smaller game in the bandbox that is The Cell.
But as I said above - to me that's foolish thinking that doesn't respect the true power and nature of small ball. And it also doesn't respect how deleterious to your hitters that waiting around for them to hit their way out of a slump can be. Baseball is totally a sport of momentum - guys are constantly running hot and cold at the plate and on the mound. If you allow a cold streak to go unchecked, it snowballs, with each hitter putting more pressure on themselves due to their own and the team's recent failings. This leads to worse at-bats and a downward spiral that often is only rescued once the team has completely fallen out of it, finally eliminating the negative pressure.
The Sox need to stop approaching their current skid so passively. Instead, Ozzie needs to take the game to the other team, by calling on your guys to bunt, steal, hit-and-run, hit the ball behind baserunners, bunt for hits, take aggressive lead-offs, work secondary leads and get into the pitcher's head.
That's the simple answer, and the fact that you're last in the AL in runs despite the type of bangers you have in that lineup (as well as the tiny park you play in) means you've got NO excuse not to do these things. There is NO risk here - how much worse can the offense be?
Unfortunately, Kenny and Ozzie already have their team behind the 8-ball here. Even if they pulled their heads out of their collective butts long enough to actually put into effect a small ball approach, it's not clear the Sox would have much success with it. I still believe they'd have more success with it than waiting around, but not as much as they should have.
That's because Kenny and Ozzie have not instilled in the entire organization, from the lowest levels to their biggest stars, an obsessive commitment to all of the small, under-appreciated skills of the game. Especially with your prospects - guys just killing themselves to impress you - it should be cake to get them to buy into this approach.
That should be the bare minimum requirement for elevation on every level of your organization - that you have a complete and total command of bunting, base-running, making contact on hit-and-runs, knowing how to approach an at-bat with a runner on third and less than two outs, or how to move a guy over by hitting behind them.
Having a successful franchise isn't that hard, yet Ozzie and Kenny haven't figured it out yet. You start with the simple things you control and then you move on to the bigger stuff. You jam the notion of good fundamental baseball down the throats of your prospects and every newcomer to the organization. You reward those guys who excel at that type of play and penalize those who eschew it. You create a top-to-bottom obsession with playing the game right, doing the little things to win, and knowing how to approach the game. And then, once you're outfitted with a bunch of guys who get how the game works, you unleash them.
Except Ozzie has done the opposite. How many times have you seen this team bunt this year? We're one of the worst offenses in the league, yet we never bunt? We never hit-and-run? We never hit behind the runner? What the hell do we have to lose? Another strike-out? Or more guy hitting below .275 (only Paulie is above that number)?
So, in brief (never my strong suit) - the Sox need to get rid of Walker and Ozzie needs to commit to small ball, even if his guys don't seem capable of doing it. There will be some growing pains, but eventually the approach will pay its dividends - and they'll be longer and more sustained than waiting for the next hot streak.
Longterm, the Sox need a hitting coach who instills the right approach throughout the organization, so that both emerging prospects and proven veterans can live up to or exceed expectations. And most importantly, the Sox need to start, this very minute, establishing a complete, over-arching, unbending, and prime focused commitment to doing all the little things offensively.
