Help From A Friend

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My brother Doug wrote me an email yesterday that I think had some very salient thoughts, so I figured I'd post it here:

• The White Sox still have a long way to go to get on the right track, but one move that looks like it may pan out very nicely is the addition of Scott Podsednik. Guillen pussy-footed at first, batting him ninth for a while, but he has been hitting in his natural leadoff spot for the last week or so, and he has been very effective there - just as he was in 2005 and 2006. He's hitting .303 and has helped the Sox win five of their last seven.
  I have been hesitant to write off the Sox this year for a number of reasons, and this is one of them. Ozzie needs to find his best lineup. He's been tinkering with it all year. If he can stay healthy, I think Podsednik can answer the need at the leadoff spot that has existed since he left. Also, now that the weather is warming up, Alexei Ramirez seems to be finding his 2008 form again, and it looks like he may be the answer in the #2 hole. This will allow Chris Getz to manage through his rookie year from the safety of the ninth spot, where I expect he'll flourish with less pressure on him. Josh Fields has been put on notice, else we may see Gordon Beckham replacing him at third base. I also believe that both John Danks and Gavin Floyd will rebound from rough starts (recent evidence supports this), and Clayton Richard appears to be better than either Colon or Contreras as the #4 starter. One of those other two should be able to manage the #5 spot in the rotation.
  I'm not predicting a championship season for the Sox, but I don't think it's "a lost year" by any means. This team will still be heard from in the AL Central.

I think his last line sums up my thoughts exactly - the Sox have their issues still, but this season is only now starting to take shape. I think it's clear the Tigers are for real, though still flawed. I think the Royals will be better than normal, but not a true contender. My guess is that at least one of the Twins or Indians will get back into the mix. We could see a race like last year, except instead of only two teams coming down to the final days, we could see three or four involved. Baseball hasn't seen something like that in a while, but it used to be fairly common in the non-Division and two-division eras.

So is Pods the answer up top? It's only been 81 at-bats, but he is hitting .296. More importantly, since becoming an everyday player on May 12th, he's raised his OBA up almost .120 points. Pods isn't running like you'd like, getting thrown out and picked off far too much for any player, let alone such an accomplished base thief as himself. But hopefully he'll get used to the AL pitchers and catchers and be back to at least 30+ steal form.

In that same time frame, Alexei seems to have turned it on, hitting .340 with an OBA over .400 since that point and starting to look good in the #2 hole. It's not hard to believe my brother is right, that with the weather warming up, Alexei will turn it on. Remember that last year, it wasn't until May 16th, with Uribe's injury, that The Missile started hitting.

I think my brother is right that Getz can be a solid hitter if left out of the limelight at the back of the order, and think that Fields could become at least serviceable if he too is kept away from the top of the lineup. Throw Nix and Lillibridge (both have shown flashes of talent but need to put it all together still) into the mix and you hope that you can at least find two players capable of respectable at-bats each time through the order.

Remember, the 8th and 9th spots don't have to contribute that much for the offense to work - the Sox were holy terrors offensively in the first half of 2006 with black holes Uribe and BA filling the final two spots. But BA and Uribe gave the team strong defense, which it seems like Getz, Fields, Nix, and Lillibridge can repeat.

Of note - Guillen said that Beckham wouldn't see the bigs this season, and I'm hoping he's right. Give the kid time to develop in the minors, get into good habits and learn the little things that go with professional baseball before throwing him into the fire. The hype surrounding him is gonna be enough pressure - no need to make it worse by rushing him into a mid-season call-up where he's viewed as the savior. Plus, let's see what we have in these four young IFs. Give them a real shot to prove themselves, then use Beckham to fill in any holes.

It's only 80 at-bats, but the fact that BA has returned with a red hot bat could go a real long way to off-setting the loss of Quentin. Whether CQ continues to ping in and out of the lineup or is finally shelved on the DL, BA's presence could really help soften the blow.

Am I saying that BA replaces his bat? Of course not. But he is a tremendous defensive CF, and with Quentin out, Pods can move over to left and stay in the lineup every day, with BA manning center. The upgrade from Pods to Anderson is extremely significant, and with both those guys hitting well, will allow the Sox to overcome the loss of their best hitter for a time.

Oddly enough, Pods and BA have been hitting well outside of the normal platoon set-up. Again, it's only 20-something at-bats, but so far Pods is hitting .400 against lefties while BA is hitting .345 against righties. That means Ozzie can have confidence putting them out there every single day, no matter who's on the mound for the opponents.

Obviously we want CQ back and putting up MVP numbers as soon as possible, but in order to have success, you've got to be able to overcome the inevitable injuries along the way. The fact that the Sox have gotten so hot while he's been gone really bodes well.

As for the pitching, again, I agree with my brother. Danks and Floyd both clearly aren't in the right mindset right now, but I have faith both can find it again. They've got good stuff and thanks to Cooper, they've learned how to pitch. Watching them, you can tell that they've gotten out of their comfort zone, and for guys like that, without the 97 MPH fastball, you've got to be on your game to have success. But I see them re-discovering the feel, as both are accomplished young arms who threw too many big games in the past to have been flukes.

But Clayton is the guy I'm most excited about - ever since late last season he's seem to have figured it out. Even in his spot starts early last year he'd look good - he just couldn't make it through that second time in the lineup. Now he seems to have made that leap, like Floyd and Danks both did, and I believe he can keep it up.

If so, the Sox are gonna be in great shape - even moreso than had that pantywaist Peavy grown a pair and waived his no-trade clause. Not that Richard will ever be Peavy, not even in the slightest. But if he can be a solid big league starter (a Garland type) for the chump change he'll be making the next few years, the Sox can use those significant resources to fill other holes.

It's been a nice run of late, but the Sox still sit below .500 and have a ways to go to catch the Tigers, let alone put some distance between them, as you'd like. Tonight is an icing game - you'd love to win it, but the series has already been won and the big games are coming this weekend. You've got to take two of three from the Royals (ideally, by being the first team to get to Grienke and deflate his legend a bit) to continue their slide and keep your momentum going.

Then it's back to Chicago for an 11-game homestand featuring two straight soft opponents (As and Indians) before a four-game set against Tigers that offers a big chance to eliminate the gap in the standings. Thursday night, the 11th, I'm hoping to be within a game or so of the Tigers. June is a great month to make some hay - with that 11 game homestand followed by a "road trip" to Milwaukee and the North Side (as well as an actual road trip to Cincy) before returning home for another six games.

Time to seize the day.