Reports today are that our ChiSox made serious overtures to the Padres about 28-year old Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Serious enough that Padres Manager Bud Black sat Peavy down to discuss the possibility.
Before we all get too excited (and trust me, once you see his numbers, you'll get REAL excited), Peavy has full no-trade rights and has stated repeatedly he wants to remain in the NL. There's also word that he's a bit spooked by Ozzie's volatile nature.
However, supposedly Peavy also respected how aggressive the Sox are being in getting him, and you have to believe any athlete of his caliber is going to want the chance to perform for a team capable of winning it all. And there is NO doubt - with Jake Peavy on their staff, the White Sox immediately become a title contender.
In case you're not intimately familiar with his work on the West Coast for an NL afterthought, here's what Peavy's done in his career:
- In 2004, his second full season, he had a 2.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 173 Ks in only 166 IP.
- He followed that up in 2005 by posting a 2.88 ERA, a minuscule 1.04 WHIP, and 216 Ks in 203 IP.
- 2006 saw a bit of a step back, but he still had a 4.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 215 Ks in 202 IP.
- 2007 was his Cy Young season - 223 innings of 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 240 Ks.
- Last year he was stellar again, despite an early season DL stint, posting a 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 166 Ks in 173 IP.
And don't fear his numbers this season, either. His 3.82 is good, but not amazing. But look deeper and you see a beautiful 1.11 WHIP and 69 Ks in only 61 IP. More importantly, after a very mediocre April, Peavy's rediscovered his old form in May - 1.80 ERA, 30 IP, and 37 Ks in just 4 starts. Wow.
A lot of teams have been scared off by Peavy's contract, but I think it's pretty reasonable for a 28-year old (actually, he'll only turn 28 at the end of the month) Cy Young winner who's as good as ever. $11M this season, 15M in 2010, $16M in 2011, and $17M in 2012.
Remember, Derek Lowe, a 36-year old who'd never sniffed a Cy Young race, just got $15M each for 4 years. AJ Burnett, a 32-year old perenial DL mainstay who also has never sniffed a Cy, just got $16.5M each for 5 years.
So I'm thinking if anything, Peavy's undervalued, both in terms of how much he'll make and, more importantly, how long you're on the hook for the guy. Just three and a half more years - that's a real short contract for a 28-year old ace.
As for how it effects the Sox, it's pretty easy to imagine. Peavy's your #1, Buehrle, who's throwing as well as he ever has, moves down to the #2 slot, and then Danks fills out your #3. To me that's a pretty damn sweet 1-2-3, which when combined with the Sox strong pen, will be pretty tough to beat.
From there you've got some combo of Floyd, Colon, and Richard at the back of the rotation (and don't write off a resurgence from Contreras, who supposedly has been lights out in AAA - he's the type who can suddenly put it all together, as we saw in 2005). Four guys who all could be great leave you confident you'll find two who can at least keep us in games.
Even with our offensive struggles, to me there's no question we become the instant favorite for this division. And this type of shot in the arm could be what the Sox need to get some energy back into the team after a slow start. It wouldn't surprise me to see the bats light up following this deal, as the confidence and excitement returns to the clubhouse and puts everyone in the right mindset to hit. I am a firm believer that hitting success is contagious, and sometimes you catch it simply from feeling good about the guys around you - even the pitchers.
Of course the unknown variable in this all - besides how likely or unlikely this is to happen - is what the Sox are giving up. You'd figure Danks is untouchable, but could Floyd anchor a deal? Yes he's been brutal of late, but he's signed reasonably and showed last year he could get it done. In spacious PetCo and the soft NL, he might return to 17-win form. Poreda's name has come up, could Beckham also be a possibility? Everyone's pretty high on the kid, but if the Sox like Getz, Nix, and Alexei, couldn't Beckham be expendable? Remember, Kenny has shown he has absolutely no problem trading prospects, even highly touted ones with unlimited potential. In fact, when an ace pitcher is involved, Kenny's even more likely to dump great young kids, like he did to acquire Freddy and Javy.
Again, this is probably all just a dream, but it's always fun to run with these a little bit. So for now, think of how nice it would be to see 28-year old Cy Winner Jake Peavy striking out 8-10 guys a game on the Southside as we reach back-to-back postseasons for the first time in our history. And at the very least, feel good about the fact that Kenny is going for the brass ring, and the check-writers upstairs are agreeing to foot the bill.
ps: Here are links to all the stories I pilfered the latest news from, though as always, all analysis is strictly my own:
F*ck Peavy. I hope we see him at some point in the next couple of seasons and we light his a$$ up.
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