I have absolutely no time to do this right now, with a wicked busy week of work, my 19th annual fantasy football draft in less than two weeks, and a 1-month old at home... but come on, that was a MAJOR move last night with all sorts of implications and I've just been swallowing my Sox thoughts for too long. So here goes...
First off, let's respect who Alex Rios really is:
- He's 6-5 and came up as a 5-tool player with pretty high upside. He's 28, not turning 29 until next February. This is his 6th full season in the bigs, all played in Toronto. He's twice been an All-Star and was 5th in ROY voting in 2004.
- His contract only requires $5.9M this season (hence how the Sox could make the move work now), a reasonable $9.7M next year, then basically $12.5M per from 2011 to 2015 (tho the last year is a team option).
- He's a career .285 hitter, and that is a fairly accurate representation of what to expect, based on what he's done in 6 years so far. He'll be about a .285 hitter over the long haul, with some year-to-year variation up to .305 or down to .265.
- He'll hit anywhere between 15 and 25 HRs (probably more in the Cell), while adding another 40+ doubles each year (he's very consistently reached that mark). Depending on where he is in the order, he's a likely 80-90 RBI type.
- He'll steal between 15 and 30 bases, and do so at about a 75% clip (a real good rate).
- The knock on the guy - he's not a patient hitter, with an OBA only about 50 points over his average (you'd like to be about 80 points over) and he will strike out 100 times a year.
- Defense is always hard to gauge, but his 5-tool status, time in right field, and assist numbers all suggest he's got a pretty good arm. He's mainly played right, but that seems to be only because Vernon Wells was always there in center. When Wells was hurt, Rios played a lot of center (20 games in 07, 60 last year). Is he a capable defender in center? That seems to be the biggest question when trying to grasp what the Sox got. Because offensively, he's been remarkably consistent - what I listed above is what you can expect. Whether or not he can be a capable CF is something only time will tell. However, I have heard it stated that Rios is a natural centerfielder and the return to that spot should help him defensively. Hearing that, I'm beginning to see the wisdom of the move - Rios could be the franchise CF the Sox have long sought.
What does all this mean to me? I think it means the Sox picked up a real asset for the years moving forward. I think Rios has the average, power, and speed to be a real dynamic force in the Sox lineup. In recent years we've all bemoaned the low average, low mobility, home run or nothing nature of this team. But all of the sudden Kenny has totally changed the make-up and Rios fits perfectly right in.
The Sox now are looking at a core of relatively young hitters capable of hitting for a good average, flashing 20 HR power, and stealing 10 to 20+ bases. Look at what the Sox are going to be running out there for the next half decade or more:
Quentin (turns 27 at the end of August) - struggled with injuries this year that sapped his average, but still has 11 HRs in 200 ABs. Lately he's started to turn it on again, though the real hope is that by next year Carlos will be back to the .285, 35 HR, 115 RBI, .400 OBA, 10 SB beast he showed the ability to be last year. That 10+ steal speed can't be over-looked, but not even for the steals themselves. It's more that Carlos has shown he's not a base-clogging type slugger, and that can be a real advantage to a lineup's dynamic and consistency.
Beckham (turns 23 in mid-September) - let's not forget that he had only 2 hits (both singles) in his first 28 at-bats. Since then? Beckham has hit .339 w/ 6 HRs and 19 doubles in 177 ABs. Who do I see him resembling, production-wise? Chipper Jones - just with a bit fewer walks and homers. We're talking a consistent .300 average, 100 runs, and 100 RBI. And while he won't steal a ton of bases (4 so far this year, but been thrown out 4 times as well), Beckham definitely can move around the bases.
Ramirez (turns 28 in mid-September) - a lot of the fan and media excitement with Alexei has soured this year, but I'm not sure why. He's hitting a respectable .270 and on pace for both 17 HRs and 17 SB - those are good numbers from a middle infielder. Sure Alexei has made too many mistakes, especially mentally, in the field this year. But I see upside on both fronts, as Alexei can easily be a .290 to .300 hitter (after struggling to a .214 April, he's posted months of .281, .283, .298, and .300) with 25 HRs and 20 steals. Remember, after a rough start last year, he still hit .290 w/ 21 HRs and 13 steals on the season. Defensively, it's hard to be sure he'll figure it out, but Alexei certainly has all the tools, so I'm guessing he'll settle in to be a plus defender despite the occasional mental lapses.
Getz (turns 26 at the end of August) - he's been a bit up and down this year (hit .340 in April, then .200 in May, up a tick to .247 in June, then hot again with a .324 in July, and now settled in at .286 in August). But Getz is a rookie, so that is to be expected. Overall, he's around .270 and from what I've seen and heard, I think he can be a consistent .280-.290 hitter. Getz doesn't have a ton of power and isn't an OBA guy, but he does only have 43 Ks in 310 ABs (with the great majority coming when he struggled in May and June). Add in the that he's on pace for over 25 steals and only 3 or 4 times caught, and you start to see his value. His average, speed, and contact abilities make him a valuable piece to a dynamic offense.
Rios (turns 29 in mid-February) - as I mentioned above, this is a guy who will hit .285 with 20+ HRs, 40+ doubles, and 20+ steals. That makes him the 4th guy in your lineup who can drive in 90+ runs but still flash good speed on the bases. Throw Getz and whomever you've got leading off into the mix, and now the Sox have six different guys playing everyday who can go first-to-third or score from second on a single. Guys you can hit-and-run with or can feel confident sending with two outs and a guy capable of leading off the next inning at the dish.
That's my excitement in this move - that Rios fits in so well with what they already are building. Gone is the beer league softball approach, with the slow, aging sluggers. Gone are the failed prospects with holes in their swings and their sub .250 averages. Instead, there's a core of guys you can expect to hit for average and flash some speed - the two things I firmly believe a lineup needs to win consistently in the regular and post seasons - but still have the power needed to compete in the AL out of a home field like the Cell.
Sure there are other moves to be made down the road, but for now AJ and Paulie can be expected to be assets for another few seasons. Rios, as a righty, seems to preclude bringing back Dye, but Thome still seems to fit - they've got a DH spot and a need for a left-handed slugger for the heart of the order. And who knows - maybe they see Rios or Getz as a capable lead-off hitter next season, and thus Dye can return, with Rios playing center and Carlos in left.
To me that's the only question remaining in the lineup - how to fill the vastly under-rated but completely crucial leadoff spot next year. Is it Pods? Is he for real? Can he stay healthy and productive? Cause we've been burned by him before, and now he's only gotten older. Is it Rios or Getz? Neither is the prototypical leadoff guy, having neither much experience nor the pure speed or on-base abilities you'd expect. Is it someone from outside (Pierre, Figgins, Damon, etc)? With Peavy and Rios in the mix now and Thome and/or Dye possibly back, how much money do they really have left to add someone like that?
That is gonna be one of the critiques of this move - the Sox are paying way too much for what Rios gives you. But I disagree on two levels. First, the acquisition cost of Rios was nothing - they lost no prospects or pieces in getting him. That's significant and must be included when considering his salary. Second, you can't compare last year's off-season OF signings to what Rios could get on the open market. Ibanez, Bradley, and Abreu were all much older than Rios. Only Dunn is close in age, and he carried a limited appeal both because he's such a poor defender anywhere on the diamond and because his game is one-dimensional.
The fact is that Rios is entering his prime, has shown All-Star abilities (twice), and even in a "down" year, is still on pace to hit 20 HRs, score 75 R, drive in 90, and steal 25 bases. If that is this kid's floor and he really can play a solid CF, you don't think he's worth $12M per during his prime?
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