Can The Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

-

So anytime the 2009 Sox want to really convince me of the kind of team they are, that'd be just great. I mean is this the team who stumbled along in April? Or the one that bottomed out in Toronto in mid-May? Or the team who roared back with 10 wins in 13 games right after that? Or maybe they're the team who followed that resurgence with a depressing 8 home losses in 9 days?

My hope? The rough start was a matter of finding the right lineup mix and getting the starting pitching on track, the brutal home stand a fluky blip, and this on-going string of 8 straight series wins (excluding that horrible home stand and the series split at Wrigley) is the real McCoy.

It could be the case. Sure, I'm a hopeless optimist when it comes to the ChiSox, but I really believe they might have the right mix going. Yes, they have some areas to improve and some things they need to do differently, but I think they're closer to another playoff appearance than they are another disappointing lost season.

Here's my current state of the team:

Scotty Pods has been a godsend. A bit lucky (on pace to have his best year ever, after being cut by a last place team) and a bit wise (he's always had the potential to be a great leadoff hitter, something few guys in all of baseball can say), this move could very easily be seen as the season saver.

It's why I keep harping on the importance of a good lead-off guy and why I'll go to the grave screaming that teams need to give the $200M deals to lead-off guys (who truly are irreplaceable, hard to come by, and make everyone better) and not middle of the lineup sluggers (who are easy to replace, easy to find, and don't seem to have a major impact on a team, either when they are added or subtracted).

Don't believe me? Then look at two of the more maligned classic leadoff hitters of our time - Pods and Juan Pierre - and see what happens when these guys are playing good baseball. The Dodgers lost freakin Manny and didn't miss a beat offensively, because Pierre came in and sparked the whole lineup. As we all know, it's been the exact same thing on the Southside, with Pods making it all go. Every single other player is better because of what he's doing at the top of the order.

Really glad to see Alexei back to hitting like he should. In May and June, he hit around .280 and drove in runs at a 90 RBI pace. That's impressive in a lineup that still isn't clicking and out of the #2 slot. However, I actually don't like Alexei in the #2 spot. He's not a grinder type and is too good of a talent to be buried trying to hit behind guys or bunt unless fully necessary.

Especially given the struggles in the back of the lineup, the Sox need him to be batting 6th or 7th. If you're into the righty-lefty thing, put AJ 6th and Alexei 7th, with Alexei moving up to #6 when AJ sits (instead of having your back-up catcher, Castro, be Paulie's protection). That's where this kid will thrive - he'll provide a bit of speed after the sluggers, but he'll also give you consistency in the back of the lineup and a run-producing bat to follow up the heart of the order.

Personally I'm turning 2B into a platoon, with Getz and Nix splitting time and handling the #2 slot. Both have shown decent flashes offensively and defensively, and both could be solid big leaguers. I think both the team and the players would prosper from a pure platoon and from asking these two to take over the #2 role.

With Pods playing as he is and the middle of the order hitting solidly, you just want your #2 to make productive outs. Bunt, hit behind guys, execute hit-and-runs, occasionally get a hit or drive in a run, and show some speed when you're on the base paths. Getz and Nix just might be able to do that.

But what I really like about that is that you're taking the pressure off of these guys. Instead of asking them to go out and be a plus hitter - a real challenge for any major leaguer - you're asking them just to be productive in their at-bats. Lower the bar for success. You're hitting .240? No problem, as long as you're getting down bunts, making contact, and working the pitcher.

Ozzie got a lot of credit in 2005 for putting his guys in a place to succeed and I really think he deserved it. But he's gotten away from that since and now, with all these youngsters, he needs to get back to it. Both Getz and Nix could really profit if you lowered the expectations and gave them simple assignments they were capable of - such as putting in productive at-bats out of the #2 slot.

And if they do fail, I'm going back to AJ in the #2 slot. As I posted before, he's not a great run producer and never has been. But his Minnesota background and approach to the game make him a capable #2 hitter. No, he's not ideal, but he can get it done. So if the two kids aren't cutting it, then throw AJ up there. Again, put the guy in a place to succeed - and in the #2 hole, a lot of AJ's flaws are hidden and a lot of his assets utilized.

In the heart of the order, the Sox have something going that I never would have expected. First off, they've been productive despite getting almost nothing out of CQ. Given the rock that he was last year, how they've played over Quentin's early struggles and current injury is impressive. But the other thing I wouldn't have guessed is that all three aging sluggers would be having good, but not great years. I figured one guy would get hot, one would be OK, and one would struggle.

So far, all three guys have gotten the job done, while none of them has really gone off. JD has the highest average, most home runs, and best slugging. But it's telling that he still isn't leading the team in RBI. That title goes to Paulie, who's driven in 49 to Dye's 48, despite fewer jacks and a slugging percentage below .500. Thome's only hitting .247, but he gets on at an impressive .402 clip, and his 13 HRs and 42 RBI have seemed to come when the Sox need it most.

In all, each of these guys has been productive, but each has some room to get hot and really carry the squad. Especially if the Sox get CQ back, the heart of the order could be the steady, dangerous, run-producing collection we've always hoped for out of these highly paid guys.

Of course, if Quentin does come back in good health and productivity, there's gonna be a bit of a log jam in the lineup. I know Kenny and Ozzie don't care, but it's gonna absolutely kill us to have Pods playing center every day. Sure you can finagle some starts for BA by giving Pods, Paulie, Thome, Dye, and CQ needed breaks, but you're still looking at about 50-60% of your games start in center by Pods.

I've watched the guy for a number of years and this year is by far the worst I've ever seen of Pods in the field - and I thought he was terrible before. He's hesitant, uncomfortable, has surprisingly iffy range, and rarely seems to make catches that aren't routine. After seeing how detrimental a terrible defensive center-fielder can be (Mackowiak or Griffey, anyone?) and comparing that to the advantage a great defender like Rowand or BA is, I just don't see how Kenny and Ozzie can think Pods in center is a legit way to win a title.

But what alternative do the Sox have? Well, if CQ proves healthy in the two weeks he's back before the deadline, you can deal Dye, leave Pods in left, and move CQ to right. But that's a very risky proposition - how confident can you be after even the best couple of weeks by CQ? Can you really deal a key heart of the order component when your alternatives are a guy with a major foot issue, an aging slugger with back issues, and a highly inconsistent head case coming off two bad seasons?

Instead, my guess is that Quentin gets a lot of days off, the others are rested here and there (Thome against lefties, Dye and Paulie to keep fresh), and BA (or god, forbid, Wise) remain fairly regular CFs.

Speaking of BA, I'm absolutely fine with him as a full-time CF on this squad. Sure, our back of the lineup is hurting, but with the right moves, it doesn't have to be. As I mentioned, I'd move the Getz/Nix platoon up to #2 and Alexei down, so instead of a dead 7-9, you've just got your 8-9 as holes. And as I'll detail in a minute, I don't think Beckham can be considered a hole any more. It's still early, but he's starting to look very legit.

With a productive Beckham and Alexei down in the lineup, BA can slide into the #9 slot, hit his .240-.260, get on base at a decent clip, show some speed and power, and most importantly, be an absolute beast in centerfield. Given Pods' weakness in left and Dye's declining range (tho he remains a strong fielder, just not covering a ton of ground), BA's defensive work is fully necessary. Especially given the premium we put on our pitching, we need our defense to be top notch. And that means BA has to get regular ABs, even if he's ugly at the plate, even if it means more rest for your sluggers than you'd prefer.

Finally, we come to Beckham, who might very well follow up the amazing emergence of CQ and Alexei with one of his own this season. Remember, this kid started off 0 for 13. Take that small adjustment blip away, and you realize that despite being only a year out of college, he's hitting .333 with a .485 slugging percentage in 66 ABs. And those numbers are only going up, as he's as hot as could be right now.

Sure, even in the best case he'll hit a wall at some point. But if Beckham can end the year where he is now - a .280 average, .360 OBA, and solid speed and pop - then the Sox will be in good shape, both for this year and the future.

The real question is can he handle himself defensively. That's been the one frustrating part about the Sox recent run - that it could have been even better had they just played good defense. Beckham and Alexei are making way too many mistakes over on the left side of the infield and those mistakes are putting pressure on everyone else and resulting in more errors and bad plays.

I'm looking to the top for blame here - it's on Ozzie to have these guys in the right mindset to play good defensive baseball. And that's what it is - a mindset. There needs to be a pride and obsession with defense, a team-wide commitment to impressive work in the field on every single play. Not just with the glove and throws, but in knowing where to be, where to go, how to handle situations.

Again we're back to the fundamentals - and again that's on Ozzie (and in a macro-perspective, Kenny). This team has the pieces. Pods is setting the table, the middle of the order is doing well enough to produce runs, and the back of the order is even coming around. As long as Pods isn't in center, the defensive set-up is filled with solid or plus defenders. Now it's on Ozzie to ensure they play up to their capabilities.

If the Sox do that - if they field well and execute the little things - then this team is fully capable of anything, even a title. But if they don't, they just aren't talented enough to overcome poor play for a whole season and into the playoffs.

Some final quick thoughts on our hitters. First, I'd probably be looking to upgrade the Josh Fields spot. Find me another Uribe or Blum on a non-contender, a veteran who can handle the glove and be reliable. Fields never really got a full shot and might still have some talent, but Beckham has clearly passed him by and this team needs to be at its best for this year. Fields doesn't bring anything, at least not compared to what a proven veteran utility guy could.

Wise actually has a role on this team as a pinch hitter/runner and defensive replacement. But he shouldn't be getting regular work in CF, especially not when CQ is back. He's solid enough in center, but BA is better, has hit better, and has more upside. Wise is a 5th OF and should be used only as such.


Now, to the pitching. Buehrle is Buehrle. This year he's been especially Buehrle, and I don't expect that to change much. But more promising is the turnaround we've seen out of Danks, Floyd, and Contreras. Danks started amazingly then really struggled, but since has righted the ship and looks to be the Johnny Danks of old. Floyd couldn't even say he struggled - he flat out sucked. But in his last 8 starts he's got a 1. something ERA and is proving that last year was no fluke.

Most impressive is definitely Contreras' rebound. He didn't even suck - he was about the worst pitcher I've seen in a while. He had flashes of good things, but it was clear that he just didn't have it together, mentally or physically. However, I hope Jose's lesson is learned by GMs everywhere - when a guy is struggling, it can help to get away from it and go back to working on the basics.

Contreras went down to AAA, away from the pressure, and immediately put it all together. He's always been on the edge of disaster even as he pitched his best - that's just the nature of his brilliance. So without it all together, he was a wreck. That time away let him get his confidence, his plan, and probably his angles and releases to where they needed to be.

The result is a Contreras as good as I've seen since his dominant 2nd half 2005 run. Coupled with Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd having front line stuff, the Sox become real scary.

Really, stop and think about that - the Sox have four different pitchers throwing at ace or near-ace levels.

If that keeps up, then this team will most certainly be in it. Even if they have another hiccup in the next few weeks, there's no reason to panic as long as that starting pitching is dealing. The division is winnable and the Sox have the talent to do it. As long as this starting pitching is throwing like this, have faith.

Having said that, the Sox still need significant contributions out of the rest of the staff to make this happen. Richard has been serviceable, which is fine out of a #5. But I think he's still got upside - I can see him getting hot for a stretch. But if not, if he goes the other way, it's nice to know we've got Colon in our back pocket. Oddly, I haven't heard much news about him since he got put on the DL around the 9th of June. He's got performance incentives, so no way he's allowing the Sox to hide him if he's healthy.

My hope is that Colon is getting back to full strength, will get some rehab work to get sharp again, and then be either a trade piece or nice insurance down the stretch. You can just never have enough pitching, and Colon was at least serviceable.

Finally, it's on to our pen. Up until a few weeks ago, they looked unreal. But since then they've really struggled. Oddly, it hasn't hurt the Sox too much. Like their defense, it looked really bad, but only kept them from being red hot instead of just hot. But also like their defense, if it doesn't get turned around, it'll be the fall of this team.

I have no worries about Jenks, except the token concern you have that everyone stays healthy. In fact, I've started to realize that Jenks is the Buehrle of relievers. Funny, given that he came up as this big, colorful, smoke-thrower. But now he's settled into a boring, veteran pitcher who quietly gets it done, minimizing any damage and coming through when it matters.

On that, why the hell are there even hints of discussions of getting rid of this guy. Like leadoff hitters, effective, steady relievers are impossible to find, yet crucial to success and also key to making everyone else better. Why in the lord's name would the Sox ever think of getting rid of a guy who makes his off-season home in Chicago and has been as steady of a closer as anyone in baseball?

Pay the damn man. Lock him up for a 3-5 year deal and make him a Chicago institution. Jenks has earned it - he is so damn steady. How many relievers in baseball have been as consistent as he has been since 2005? Rivera? Hoffman? KRod? Nathan? Papelbon? I just named the two greatest closers of all time and the top three closers in the game today. That is the company Jenks keeps.

So why on Earth would you get rid of him? At the very least you keep him for his final arbitration year. But given how he lives in Chicago and loves the organization and what it's done for him, how are you not fully committed to this guy until his arm falls off? Hello? Kenny, make it happen. Losing Jenks means we would have a big question mark at closer next year, which even if it was filled by Thornton or Linebrink, would then create a big question in the set-up roles. We're already gonna lose Dotel, so no reason to make it worse.

Plus, and this is where it ties back into this year - you never really can count on any sort of reliable set-up to your bullpen. So if you somehow have a guy in ANY role who's reliable in that role, KEEP HIM THERE FOREVER! So Jenks is a great closer - done, he's our closer forever.

For now, the hope is that Thornton and Linebrink can shake off these recent blips and be effective in the second half. Same with Dotel. All three can be lights out, all three can be a nightmare. Linebrink has a longer track record, Thornton the best stuff, and Dotel the lowest expectations (as the 7th inning situational type). But to really win, especially down the stretch and into the playoffs, we need all three, or at least two of them, reliably dealing.

One guy I continue to be pleasantly surprised about - Carrasco. At this point it's hard to say he's a fluke, as this is the second straight year he's gotten it done. Whether it's mopping up with a few innings of work or a key middle inning situation, DJ just gets it done. He has been absolutely invaluable and is the type of guy you need on any winning team - the randomly effective reliever.

While it's gotten absolutely no attention, the early work of phenom Aaron Poreda deserves mention. It's only 5 innings, but to give up no runs, only four hits, and a single walk - I'll take that all day. Throw in 6 Ks and this kid has clearly been impressive. Yes, Ozzie has protected him from tough situations, but that's how it should be. However, he needs to get more work. It won't be easy, as the rotation is chewing up innings and there are a lot of relief vets in front of him, but Poreda needs regular work to continue to develop.

If he can turn into a legit lefty option, that will give the Sox the flexibility to move Thornton into a pure set-up or even closer role in case Linebrink falters or Jenks gets hurt, or to take over for Dotel as the late-inning situational shut-down guy. Given how quickly bullpens can be shaken up, I'd love to see this kid be someone we can rely on (to say nothing of the good that portends for the future).


Up ahead we're in KC for four and then home for a quick three against Cleveland before things start to get rough. Hence, we need to continue taking series. Take three from KC and two at home against Cleveland - that'll put you in position to handle the run of Twins, Rays, Tigers, and Yanks, and Halos we've got for the next month (with only a three-game series against the Os at The Cell giving us any respite).

Got to keep on racking up the series wins and slowly, quietly getting back into things. I've got faith they can do it, but I'd like the Sox to finally reward that faith with a long enough stretch of convincingly strong play to get me squarely back believing in their post-season chances.

-