And Then There Were Two...

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It's kinda hard to ever know what the hell to expect out of the AL Central. Obviously, who on June 9th would have put money on the Sox taking the lead before the All-Star break and riding it at least for a few weeks after the break? Who saw the Tigers choking their huge lead in the final week last year? The Twins following a sweep of the White Sox with a home series loss against the Royals that let the Sox sneak in for a 162nd and then 163rd game in 08?

But the way the Tigers have scuffled of late combined with the loss of Mags, Inge, and Guillen (the first two for long stretches) suggests that they won't have the guns to stick in the race. Remember, this was a team who'd fallen on hard times already, shown to be a bit thin, and now three key vets are shelved.

Mags, if you haven't been paying attention, was having another stellar season. While the Sox won in 2005 thanks to Dye filling enough of Mags' shoes to allow Kenny to spend the rest of the savings on the likes of AJ, Iguchi, and El Duque, there's no question Mags has been a loss to the organization. Especially because he's meant so much to the divisional rival Tigers.

As with the Sox, Mags has been an average and RBI machine in Detroit, and rebounded from a poor 2009 to help carry the Tigers in the 1st half this season. His loss leaves MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera without much protection and costs Detroit a guy hitting .303 with 58 RBI in 84 games (or well over a 100-RBI pace).

Inge and Guillen are no small losses either. Inge is a grinder type who's long been important to Detroit success and really made a home for himself at third these past two seasons. While he's not a big numbers producer, Inge plays great defense and fills a tough spot. He'll be out 4-6 weeks thanks to a broken hand suffered on July 19th.

Guillen has been the jack of all trades, moving from SS to 3B to 1B to OF to DH to 2B as the Tigers needs have changed. While he'll only be out for two weeks, in this tight of a race, two weeks is an eternity. And Guillen's switching hitting, steady average, OBA, and power were assets, no question.


The Tigers falling apart following these losses would obviously be good for the Sox, and not just because they'd have one less team to concern themselves with in the race. But also because the Sox still have four series left with the Tigers, including two coming up in the first half of August. It could be even nicer for our Southsiders if all of these injuries lead the Tigers front office to believe it's not worth sacrificing young talent to acquire a big trade piece for the stretch.

Of course, it's not like AL Central teams haven't overcome injuries in the past. In fact, the last two division champs BOTH made it through hard-fought Septembers where they entered the final week of the season still trying to make up ground... all after getting next to no contribution from their MVP candidate.

Last year it was Minnesota and Morneau, who got hurt in early September. That didn't stop the Twins from making up an absurd gap in the final week of the season to catch the Tigers in Game 163. And we all remember 2008, when Quentin carried us through August, stupidly broke his hand, and then watched as his teammates earned and won a dramatic 163rd game.

So I wouldn't bet the mortgage money on the Tigers being dead. They could very well use these injuries as motivation to make a big deal. They've got some well-thought of young pieces to bring teams to the table. And you just never know how a team will react to the loss of some of its top players. A lot of times that leads to role players and unknowns stepping up.

But on paper, the Tigers are most definitely weaker. And while they might get it together or upgrade with a trade (possibly even a waiver deal in August), for the time being the team is extremely thin and full of holes. Even before they lost both their starting 3B and 2B the Tigers were looking for IF help. Now? They're flying on a hope and a prayer.


Of course, even if the Tigers do roll over and die, the Sox still have their work cut out for them. Jenks' meltdown in the final game of the 4-game set after the Break has helped the Twins go on a bit of a roll. Sure winning 5 of 6 from the Tribe, Os, and Royals is no miracle accomplishment, but Ws are Ws.

The Sox had no problem fattening up on lesser competition as part of their recent surge, so they can't discount it when their rivals do the same. However, the Twins, like the Sox, have a tougher road up-coming, so wins over these garbage teams aren't just nice, they're a must.

That's why it was frustrating to see Jenks blow both the Twins game and the Ms game. The Sox need every single W, as the Twinkies won't go away before all 162 (or 163) games are played. And come August and September, the Sox schedule gets filled with over .500 clubs in the form of the Tigers, Twins, Yanks, Boston, and the Angels. 11 series in all. Out of 20 (including the current one against the Ms) remaining.

Of course, if the Sox continue to pitch as they have (Jenks' issues aside), I don't think it'll matter a whole ton who we face. The simple fact is that the Sox starters (outside of Hudson) have just been nasty. Sure Freddy was iffy over the weekend, but he got squeezed by the ump and caught some bad defensive breaks. That'll happen.

The fact that it's happened so rarely is amazing. Danks, Buehrle, Floyd, and Big Game Fred have just been lights out. And they're showing no signs of slowing down. As I've discussed before, it seems clear that these guys are feeding off of each other, trying to one-up each other's outings every time.

So I'm glad that Ozzie has repaid their great work by showing very little patience with Jenks ruining it. The rest of the guys in the pen and the starters have been too damn good for the inconsistent Jenks to deserve a long leash. Especially because it's not the end of the world for Bobby or the club to have the guy spend some time in a spot relief role getting his stuff back. Rest the arm, rest the psyche, and create opportunities for the big guy to get all of his bullets back.

When Jenks is on, he's tough to beat. He's got a nasty curve, still enough giddy-up to get it by guys, and an attacking attitude that is a must for any good closer. But when Jenks is off, he relies too much on his breaking stuff, doesn't attack the zone, and can't put hitters away when the count is in his favor.

So let's hope Jenks does rediscover what works. No question that's the best thing for the Sox, as a pen with a dominant Jenks and the continued stellar work of Thornton, Putz, Santos, and Threet would be untouchable. And few things are as important to a stretch run and playoff success as a nasty deep bullpen.

What else is important to a stretch run and playoff success? Starting pitching and a lineup that produces from top to bottom. And tomorrow I'll discuss a few ways that the Sox can look to upgrade either or maybe even both before Saturday's trade deadline.

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Dr. Jenks & Mr. Hyde

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So following yesterday's shin kick of a loss to the hated Twinkies, I fired off the following email to a few Sox fan buddies:

F Bobby Jenks.

Everyone always bitches about closers, but the reality is that few guys can do the job and all closers will go through some rough times. But Jenks hasn't had it for years. And both Thornton and Putz have both shown they can do it. The two main excuses for keeping this guy in the role don't stand up. It kills me to see our early inning guys get the job done only for this guy to blow it without ever being close. What a joke he is.

Time to make Putz the closer, keep Thornton as the 8th guy (cause he's a lefty), and use Santos in the 7th. Jenks can take over Santos' spot situation role (and serve as insurance if the league starts to figure Santos out), with Threets as your spot lefty, Pena as your long guy, and Linebrink the garbageman.

What a big win he cost us today. So bitter. Good thing the Tigers suck too, but now the Twins can feel some momentum and we blew a chance at starting the break with a good series.

Still, even with the errors and blown games, I'm still pumped about the club. They battle. They're gonna win a lot more than they lose. Especially when we add a bat and glue Kotsay and Jones to the bench (where they could be nice assets).


But after writing this, I was driving around in my car and all the guys on the radio could talk about is how good Jenks has been and that this was just the standard blip that all closers go through. That making it scary and then delivering is the closer's way. As as long the saves keep coming, there's no reason to complain and call for a change.

On one hand, I agree. Jenks has been good. First off, he was lights out in 2005, when the pressure was unfathomable. He followed up with a respectable 2006 and then was flat nasty in 07 and 08. So Jenks has got the long term track record to justify the statement that he has been good. On top of that, apparently he just won the AL Reliever of the Month in June, thanks to a sterling 12 IP in 13 games, a mere 7 hits allowed compared to 14 Ks, and an unreal 1 ER and 1 BB for the duration. Gotta be honest - Jenks' quiet efficiency made me not even realize how good he had been of late.

But where I disagree with the radio guys' comments is that just because Jenks had a great June, has been good back in the day, and has so far converted a great percentage of his save chances this season (20 of 21), that doesn't mean he's automatically the right guy moving forward. Past success doesn't guarantee future success, especially when that past success has long teetered on the edge of colossal failure.

Because we've seen a lot of the Mr. Hyde aspect of Jenks last year, when he blew 6 saves (and lost two games he entered in non-save situations) while converting only 29, and allowed a mediocre 68 baserunners and an attrocious 9 HRs in 53 IP. Or the Jenks we saw in April, when he put on 17 base-runners and let 5 runs score in only 9 IP. Or May, when Jenks put 18 base-runners on in (including two jacks) and a whopping 7 ER in only 8 IP.

Those April-May numbers aren't skewed by a bad game or two. In 6 of his 18 April-May outings, he allowed a run. In nine of those he allowed multiple base-runners. In all but 2 of the 18, Jenks allowed at least one base-runner! So yeah, he's converted his saves this season, but it sure as hell hasn't been easy. And that makes you wonder - can you really count on the same tight-rope act all year, especially down the stretch and throughout the playoffs?


Would I actually make the knee jerk reaction move I suggest in my email? Not yet. Ignoring a rust-shaking outing after a week away, Jenks entered the Minnesota series having given up just one ER and one walk since the start of June (and both came in a save he converted). That outing was also the only time he'd allowed more than a single base-runner.

And while the save in Game 1 of the Twins series wasn't pretty, he did come in and get a big out in the 8th on top of closing out the 9th, didn't walk anyone, and did protect the 2-run lead he was given, even if he allowed one to cross in doing so.

Really, we're just talking one clearly bad outing. So no, that one terrible showing yesterday doesn't justify moving Jenks out of the role just yet. Cooler heads should prevail and he should be kept in the 9th inning role. And Ozzie shouldn't have a quick trigger finger either - Jenks should know he's got his managers support, even if he struggles again.

Having said that, Ozzie also should be ready and willing to make the move if Jenks hits another sustained bad stretch. I stressed sustained - a tough outing here or there will happen. But if he starts stringing along bad appearances, especially those in which he's walking guys and laboring to get though, then you've got a decision to make, even if he's still converting the saves.

At that point, while I wouldn't be convinced Jenks is assured to be a problem moving forward, I also wouldn't be assured that Jenks isn't going to be. And that unreliability would be enough to make the move. But only because Thornton, Putz, and Santos have done so well for you. The ability to move a proven closer who's throwing great into Bobby's place, to keep your 8th inning lefty as is, and to still have a lights out guy for the 7th in Santos (with Jenks as insurance), gives Ozzie the rare and valuable depth to push out his closer without weakening every other aspect of his pen.


So yeah, Bobby's meltdown cost us a chance to gain some needed ground on the Twins and Tigers. And yeah I'm a bit worried about him moving forward. But the first weekend of the second half still ended with the Sox gaining a game in the standings. Yes, the Twins closed the gap, but they've got just as tough of a second half schedule as the Sox (maybe tougher) and haven't shown the Sox ability to win on the road.

The Tigers have an easier 2nd half route, but they are scuffling now, are horrendous on the road (16-29), and so far have had the worst pitching of the three. And more than any other indicator, it's been my experience that the teams who win out over the 162-game grind of the MLB season are those that can hold their own on the road and can pitch (and catch) the baseball.

So let's hope Bobby bounces back and re-establishes his June form. And let's hope Kenny finds some bat in the next two weeks. Dunn would be nice, but my bet is he doesn't go anywhere, a la Halladay last year, and instead Kenny picks up a guy who was off the radar. The hope - it's more in the vane of Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, or Peavy - high impact acquisitions who few, if any, thought the Sox would be in on. And not another Griffey Jr/Everett/Alomar type - where Kenny overvalues some guy who was useful 3-5 years ago.

If those two things happen, this division and another ring could very well be ours.

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Nine Times

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Ah, Ed Rooney. Today's title, if you didn't pick up on it without the perfectly snide delivery of actor Jeffrey Jones, is from Ferris Buehler's Day Off. And it coincides with the length of the Sox current winning streak. It's a weird one, given the three day All-Star lay-off. So really it's more like an 8-gamer that ended with the break and then the start of a new one now.

Or it it's really like it doesn't matter. All that does is that we're in first, by a game (two in the win column) over the Tigers, a whopping 4.5 (5 in the loss column) over those pesky Twinkies. And we've now won two of the first three games we've played up in Target Field in Minnesota (having split a two-game set our first trip there in mid-May).

What I like even more - in both of our wins up there, we've had late leads, allowed runners on in all three of the final innings, and yet still nailed down the W. If you missed the game last night, you missed some awesome drama that really framed exactly the type of team we've got. The type that just finds a way to win.

The Sox came out firing, with three sac flies in the first two innings (and a solo shot) to give the team a 4-0 lead. SO the kind of hitting we always complain about not seeing - base hits followed by hard base-running followed by clutch contact to get the run across. But then an Alex Rios error (ruled a single, but it was an error on a tough but makeable play) gave the Twins a 4th out, which they used to score 6 runs in the second. If this was the MetroDome, if this was the old Sox, we'd have rolled over and died. Just another horror in a house full of em.

But not this park, and really more importantly, not this team. The Sox clawed back, retook the lead as Danks bounced back from the nightmarish second to get through six without any further damage. And then the 7th came, with the Sox nursing a 8-6 lead. Putz gives up a leadoff double but doesn't let Mauer move him over, gets the second out and then hands it off to Thornton who ends the inning by striking out Kubel with a runner on third.

In the 8th, Santos retires the first two before giving up three straight hits (including a broken bat and infield single). In comes Jenks... strikes out Hudson to strand the bases loaded. Jenks remains out for the 9th, where he gives up a leadoff double to Mauer, gets the next two, then allows an RBI single to Delmon Young. Up steps Jim Thome... and Jenks strikes him out looking. Thome was absolutely frozen - just a beauty curve straight over the plate that locked him up.

Wow was I pumped. Three straight threats, three straight times where you just know the Twins are gonna hurt us... and three straight nasty Ks! I'm telling you, there's something running through this clubhouse, specifically with the pitchers, where these guys are just feeding off of each other.

We saw the same thing in 2005. It culminated in the ALCS where all four starters came out and hurled complete games to bring this town our first world series in almost 50 years. We all know the story, but it's worth stopping, once again, to appreciate just how nasty ridiculous that way.

Each pitcher took the ball and wasn't gonna be the guy to let the team down. Whatever the starter had done the night before was the minimum that tonight's arm was gonna put up. It lasted all season long, bought us 99 wins and then an 11-1 playoff run.

And it's happening again. Over the last month plus, the starters have had an ERA just over 2. Read that again... in over a months worth of starts, these guys have allowed barely more than 2 runs for every nine innings they've been out there. Sure Danks will get tagged with 6 ERs on the stat sheet, but the reality was that the guy gutted out a hell of a performance that gave his ballclub a huge W.

But what I'm really loving is that it isn't limited to the starters. Jenks, Thornton, Putz, and Santos are also all thriving, all drooling for the opportunity to get in there and lay those hitters down. They seem to relish the tight spots, rearing back and finding something extra to get that key out when it matters.

And you know who else I'm gonna throw in that group? Tony Pena. Sure, his overall numbers aren't great and he's had more than his share of bad outings. But on a number of occasions this year the Sox have called on Pena to give them a whole bunch of quality innings after a starter went down... and that's exactly what he did.

Both when Buehrle got tossed out of the game back in late May and when Peavy was lost for the year, Pena came in and threw beautiful outings, allowing the Sox to steal a W they had no right to. On top of that, he saved the pen so the Sox could go on and win the next game with all their arms available.

Now the question is will these two young kids - Hudson and Threets - follow suit? Both were dealing in AAA and have big league stuff. Threets has started off well - just a hit and walk, no runs, in his two innings over three outings. Despite some impressive stuff he's yet to strike anyone out - but to me that shows he's got a bit of an idea how to pitch, not just throw.

As for Hudson, it's gonna be about whether he mans up and throws strikes. Last year he had a nice looking 3.38 ERA in 19 IP. In his two starts he went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER and went 5 IP and gave up 3. Both respectable outings. But just like his start this year, he walked way too many guys - in his three big league starts he's walked 12 guys in 15 IP. Not gonna cut it. Not even close.

Back in the early 2000s, the Sox had a load of SPs who did the same thing. Well-hyped prospects with great physical tools who would come on up to the bigs and refuse to attack. Some of it was the coaching staff, some of it was their soft mental approach. In either case, a long string of hot young arms came through the South Side and washed out because they spent all game nibbling.

Since Cooper has come on board, that's largely changed. Jon Garland was a perfect example - once a nibbler seemingly destined for mediocrity, he twice won 18 games for the Sox, is 125-108 at the age of 30, and can be counted on for 12-15 wins a season. Danks and Floyd have both thrived as guys who attack the zone. Contreras was one of the best pitchers in baseball after he figured that out.

So let's hope Threet can emerge as an effective #2 lefty and that Coop can get through to Hudson. Because while we won't need him in the post-season, we most certainly will need him to both get there and to have the fresh arms necessary to succeed there. Hudson has the stuff and seemingly has the make-up. He just needs to listen to Coop, follow whatever AJ's telling him, and trust in himself. As Ferris rightfully quoted John Lennon on - "I don't believe in Beatles, I just believe in me."


If that happens - if these arms all keep on getting after it as they have this last month plus, then we're not just talking about a division championship. We're talking about a team that can win the whole damn thing. Especially if Kenny can find us a left-handed bat to slot into the DH role and #5 spot in the order. But more on that next week - for now, let's go ravish some more Twinkies!

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DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK!

I don't think I've ever had a more apropos title for one of my posts here at the Baines Herald. The memorable first line in LL Cool J's monumental hit "Mama Said Knock You Out," it announced that the 80's rap groundbreaker was still a force in the emerging 90s hip-hop explosion.

For this post, the title serves two purposes. First, to re-announce my presence with authority. This is no comeback, just the end of a necessary break - I've let the Herald slip, but for good reason. The Hawks took us all on an amazing ride to the Cup, so my writing time was fully committed to my hockey blog (Commit 2 The Indian). Can you blame me? It wasn't exactly as magical as 2005, but it was damn close for me, as the Hawks are about the only thing that come close to my Sox fandom.

But I've also let the Herald slip because the Sox sucked. Yeah, it was that simple - this team just wasn't worth writing about. And it wasn't worth you all reading about. Sure, I had thoughts along the way, but they boiled down to the same thing over and over - this team has the talent, but boy are they playing bad baseball. I had some theories why - bad luck, a poor organization-wide approach to hitting, too many mentally soft hitters, and some others.

Still, it was hard to carve out time simply to bitch about a team that looked good on paper but had never shown any hint of actually being good. So while I had faith in the make-up of the roster, I didn't have any actual proof to support this faith. It wasn't like this team was doing well and then sucked. They sucked from Day 2 (Opening Day was cool). They sucked in April, sucked in May, sucked for the first week of June.

And that leads us to the second reason this post title is awesome - because it perfectly nails how pumped up I am about these Sox. Not so much in a literal sense (actually, you can call it a pretty damn sweet comeback), but in the way the line gets a kick-ass song started in a kick ass way. Check it out here. Don't tell me that song didn't get you going. And don't tell me the fact that the Sox are sitting in first place at the Break doesn't have you jacked up.

At some point even I gave up my optimism - this team was too bad for too long not to have. I hadn't given up hope, I just quit having much faith in that hope. But before that point, when people asked me about the Sox and I felt a need to throw a light at the end of the tunnel, I always pointed to the same thing.

That every single year one or even two teams start out terrible, maybe even hit the All-Star Break as another also-ran, and then somehow just put it all together. They don't just play good baseball, they go absolutely on fire for a long stretch - weeks and months of absurdly impressive win-loss records.

My hope, and I think it was shared by the Sox themselves, was to have the team have a mini-run to at least get back to respectability, give the players a little something to build on, give us fans a little something to care about. Then just as everyone forgets about us, have it all come together and dominate the second half or last month or two or whatever. Be one of "those teams" that comes out of absolutely nowhere to set the MLB on fire. One winning streak ends, another starts up. 20 wins in 25 days. Huge swaths of ground in the standings made up in a single week.

But the Sox had other ideas. They weren't about to wait around for that second half run, after they were officially left for dead. Instead, fittingly, the night the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup, the White Sox became the hottest team in baseball. Wednesday, June 9th. That's the day Toews lifted Lord Stanley's vaunted chalice, and it's the day the Sox started a modest 4-game win streak.

At the time, the highlight of that streak was that it ended with a pair of Ws over the Cubs in Wrigley. Sure both teams were brutal, but we held the bragging rights for that first series. What else could we possibly have to play for this season?

Turns out, a hell of a lot. After losing the Sunday Night finale against the Cubs, the Sox won 11 straight, not losing until they played the Cubs again in a Sunday finale. June had been great to the Sox - with only one 6-game road trip (not counting the games in Wrigley), the Sox had fattened up on home cooking and were suddenly within sniffing distance of first place. Not that they were gonna get there any time soon, but at least they were back in the mix.

But just as we all were starting to get a little confident again, the Sox went into KC and loss two of three while the Twins and Tigers played each other. A great chance to make up more ground was pissed away and the remaining schedule featured a road trip down to the first place Rangers followed by a four game home set against the always tough Halos, then three more against those pesky Royals.

Admit it - you were wondering if the hot June run was a tease, if the other shoe was gonna drop now and our high water mark had already been achieved. I certainly was. And that's why winning that first game down in Texas was so huge. It meant we had a real good shot to take the series and get back to our winning ways. Which we did with a great W on Sunday.

Back home we came, with another chance to bumble... turned into a time to shine. Four straight against the Angels, four straight Ws. Minnesota was scufflin, but the Tigers were playing decent ball. The Royals were in town, the lead was surmountable, but it meant we had to take care of business.

And did we ever - three more against the Royals made it 8 straight. And after taking the first two from the Twinkies, the Tigers finally lost on Sunday, allowing the Sox to move into sole possession of first place by a half game (tied in the loss column) with a comfortable 3.5 game lead (4 in the loss column) over those always tough Twins. I know you're feeling it! This team has earned that from you. Do you see the light!?!


So how the hell did we go from 9.5 back on June 9th to leading on July 11th? I'm looking forward to writing more about the specifics this week and next, but I can give you a quick list of where we improved:

1. Everywhere.

Really, there wasn't a single facet of the game the Sox weren't screwing up the first two months of the season, and there isn't a single facet that we haven't turned around over this last month. Starting pitching, the pen, defense, power, average, OBA, base-running, small ball, clutch hitting, managerial moves, lineups, etc etc etc. It's all gone from various levels of suck to some sort of plus. Everything.

Combined with a cooling off of both Detroit and Minnesota, the Sox have been able to make up 10 games in the standings in a hair over a month. Un-freakin-real. And what better time to do it then on the day before the All-Star Break? Nothing is better then heading into a 96-hour stretch without a Sox game on the wave of an 8-game win streak that leaves you alone in first.

Yeah, there's a long way to go yet. We start off the second half at Minnesota for four. Not gonna be easy, that one. Then it's four straight series against the Ms and As, both teams we have to beat the crap out of to build up a bit of a lead. Then the fun starts in August, as probably two out of every three series after that will be against tough teams in the form of Min, Det, NYY, and Bos. If we're still standing come October, it's because we've earned it against the best.

For now, let's relish in one of the best stretches of White Sox baseball we've seen in a long, long time - probably since October of 05. And what the heck... let's start dreamin about another run like 2005's. Even without Peavy, this team has the pitching. And when you have the pitching, everything else is a toss of a coin. I'll take that.

So sing it with me so they can hear ya in Detroit and Minnesota:

"I'm gonna knock you out - huh! Mama said knock you out - huh! I'm gonna knock you out - huh! Mama said know you OUUUTTT!!"