So following yesterday's shin kick of a loss to the hated Twinkies, I fired off the following email to a few Sox fan buddies:
F Bobby Jenks.
Everyone always bitches about closers, but the reality is that few guys can do the job and all closers will go through some rough times. But Jenks hasn't had it for years. And both Thornton and Putz have both shown they can do it. The two main excuses for keeping this guy in the role don't stand up. It kills me to see our early inning guys get the job done only for this guy to blow it without ever being close. What a joke he is.
Time to make Putz the closer, keep Thornton as the 8th guy (cause he's a lefty), and use Santos in the 7th. Jenks can take over Santos' spot situation role (and serve as insurance if the league starts to figure Santos out), with Threets as your spot lefty, Pena as your long guy, and Linebrink the garbageman.
What a big win he cost us today. So bitter. Good thing the Tigers suck too, but now the Twins can feel some momentum and we blew a chance at starting the break with a good series.
But after writing this, I was driving around in my car and all the guys on the radio could talk about is how good Jenks has been and that this was just the standard blip that all closers go through. That making it scary and then delivering is the closer's way. As as long the saves keep coming, there's no reason to complain and call for a change.
On one hand, I agree. Jenks has been good. First off, he was lights out in 2005, when the pressure was unfathomable. He followed up with a respectable 2006 and then was flat nasty in 07 and 08. So Jenks has got the long term track record to justify the statement that he has been good. On top of that, apparently he just won the AL Reliever of the Month in June, thanks to a sterling 12 IP in 13 games, a mere 7 hits allowed compared to 14 Ks, and an unreal 1 ER and 1 BB for the duration. Gotta be honest - Jenks' quiet efficiency made me not even realize how good he had been of late.
But where I disagree with the radio guys' comments is that just because Jenks had a great June, has been good back in the day, and has so far converted a great percentage of his save chances this season (20 of 21), that doesn't mean he's automatically the right guy moving forward. Past success doesn't guarantee future success, especially when that past success has long teetered on the edge of colossal failure.
Because we've seen a lot of the Mr. Hyde aspect of Jenks last year, when he blew 6 saves (and lost two games he entered in non-save situations) while converting only 29, and allowed a mediocre 68 baserunners and an attrocious 9 HRs in 53 IP. Or the Jenks we saw in April, when he put on 17 base-runners and let 5 runs score in only 9 IP. Or May, when Jenks put 18 base-runners on in (including two jacks) and a whopping 7 ER in only 8 IP.
Those April-May numbers aren't skewed by a bad game or two. In 6 of his 18 April-May outings, he allowed a run. In nine of those he allowed multiple base-runners. In all but 2 of the 18, Jenks allowed at least one base-runner! So yeah, he's converted his saves this season, but it sure as hell hasn't been easy. And that makes you wonder - can you really count on the same tight-rope act all year, especially down the stretch and throughout the playoffs?
Would I actually make the knee jerk reaction move I suggest in my email? Not yet. Ignoring a rust-shaking outing after a week away, Jenks entered the Minnesota series having given up just one ER and one walk since the start of June (and both came in a save he converted). That outing was also the only time he'd allowed more than a single base-runner.
And while the save in Game 1 of the Twins series wasn't pretty, he did come in and get a big out in the 8th on top of closing out the 9th, didn't walk anyone, and did protect the 2-run lead he was given, even if he allowed one to cross in doing so.
Really, we're just talking one clearly bad outing. So no, that one terrible showing yesterday doesn't justify moving Jenks out of the role just yet. Cooler heads should prevail and he should be kept in the 9th inning role. And Ozzie shouldn't have a quick trigger finger either - Jenks should know he's got his managers support, even if he struggles again.
Having said that, Ozzie also should be ready and willing to make the move if Jenks hits another sustained bad stretch. I stressed sustained - a tough outing here or there will happen. But if he starts stringing along bad appearances, especially those in which he's walking guys and laboring to get though, then you've got a decision to make, even if he's still converting the saves.
At that point, while I wouldn't be convinced Jenks is assured to be a problem moving forward, I also wouldn't be assured that Jenks isn't going to be. And that unreliability would be enough to make the move. But only because Thornton, Putz, and Santos have done so well for you. The ability to move a proven closer who's throwing great into Bobby's place, to keep your 8th inning lefty as is, and to still have a lights out guy for the 7th in Santos (with Jenks as insurance), gives Ozzie the rare and valuable depth to push out his closer without weakening every other aspect of his pen.
So yeah, Bobby's meltdown cost us a chance to gain some needed ground on the Twins and Tigers. And yeah I'm a bit worried about him moving forward. But the first weekend of the second half still ended with the Sox gaining a game in the standings. Yes, the Twins closed the gap, but they've got just as tough of a second half schedule as the Sox (maybe tougher) and haven't shown the Sox ability to win on the road.
The Tigers have an easier 2nd half route, but they are scuffling now, are horrendous on the road (16-29), and so far have had the worst pitching of the three. And more than any other indicator, it's been my experience that the teams who win out over the 162-game grind of the MLB season are those that can hold their own on the road and can pitch (and catch) the baseball.
So let's hope Bobby bounces back and re-establishes his June form. And let's hope Kenny finds some bat in the next two weeks. Dunn would be nice, but my bet is he doesn't go anywhere, a la Halladay last year, and instead Kenny picks up a guy who was off the radar. The hope - it's more in the vane of Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, or Peavy - high impact acquisitions who few, if any, thought the Sox would be in on. And not another Griffey Jr/Everett/Alomar type - where Kenny overvalues some guy who was useful 3-5 years ago.
If those two things happen, this division and another ring could very well be ours.
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