And Then There Were Two...

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It's kinda hard to ever know what the hell to expect out of the AL Central. Obviously, who on June 9th would have put money on the Sox taking the lead before the All-Star break and riding it at least for a few weeks after the break? Who saw the Tigers choking their huge lead in the final week last year? The Twins following a sweep of the White Sox with a home series loss against the Royals that let the Sox sneak in for a 162nd and then 163rd game in 08?

But the way the Tigers have scuffled of late combined with the loss of Mags, Inge, and Guillen (the first two for long stretches) suggests that they won't have the guns to stick in the race. Remember, this was a team who'd fallen on hard times already, shown to be a bit thin, and now three key vets are shelved.

Mags, if you haven't been paying attention, was having another stellar season. While the Sox won in 2005 thanks to Dye filling enough of Mags' shoes to allow Kenny to spend the rest of the savings on the likes of AJ, Iguchi, and El Duque, there's no question Mags has been a loss to the organization. Especially because he's meant so much to the divisional rival Tigers.

As with the Sox, Mags has been an average and RBI machine in Detroit, and rebounded from a poor 2009 to help carry the Tigers in the 1st half this season. His loss leaves MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera without much protection and costs Detroit a guy hitting .303 with 58 RBI in 84 games (or well over a 100-RBI pace).

Inge and Guillen are no small losses either. Inge is a grinder type who's long been important to Detroit success and really made a home for himself at third these past two seasons. While he's not a big numbers producer, Inge plays great defense and fills a tough spot. He'll be out 4-6 weeks thanks to a broken hand suffered on July 19th.

Guillen has been the jack of all trades, moving from SS to 3B to 1B to OF to DH to 2B as the Tigers needs have changed. While he'll only be out for two weeks, in this tight of a race, two weeks is an eternity. And Guillen's switching hitting, steady average, OBA, and power were assets, no question.


The Tigers falling apart following these losses would obviously be good for the Sox, and not just because they'd have one less team to concern themselves with in the race. But also because the Sox still have four series left with the Tigers, including two coming up in the first half of August. It could be even nicer for our Southsiders if all of these injuries lead the Tigers front office to believe it's not worth sacrificing young talent to acquire a big trade piece for the stretch.

Of course, it's not like AL Central teams haven't overcome injuries in the past. In fact, the last two division champs BOTH made it through hard-fought Septembers where they entered the final week of the season still trying to make up ground... all after getting next to no contribution from their MVP candidate.

Last year it was Minnesota and Morneau, who got hurt in early September. That didn't stop the Twins from making up an absurd gap in the final week of the season to catch the Tigers in Game 163. And we all remember 2008, when Quentin carried us through August, stupidly broke his hand, and then watched as his teammates earned and won a dramatic 163rd game.

So I wouldn't bet the mortgage money on the Tigers being dead. They could very well use these injuries as motivation to make a big deal. They've got some well-thought of young pieces to bring teams to the table. And you just never know how a team will react to the loss of some of its top players. A lot of times that leads to role players and unknowns stepping up.

But on paper, the Tigers are most definitely weaker. And while they might get it together or upgrade with a trade (possibly even a waiver deal in August), for the time being the team is extremely thin and full of holes. Even before they lost both their starting 3B and 2B the Tigers were looking for IF help. Now? They're flying on a hope and a prayer.


Of course, even if the Tigers do roll over and die, the Sox still have their work cut out for them. Jenks' meltdown in the final game of the 4-game set after the Break has helped the Twins go on a bit of a roll. Sure winning 5 of 6 from the Tribe, Os, and Royals is no miracle accomplishment, but Ws are Ws.

The Sox had no problem fattening up on lesser competition as part of their recent surge, so they can't discount it when their rivals do the same. However, the Twins, like the Sox, have a tougher road up-coming, so wins over these garbage teams aren't just nice, they're a must.

That's why it was frustrating to see Jenks blow both the Twins game and the Ms game. The Sox need every single W, as the Twinkies won't go away before all 162 (or 163) games are played. And come August and September, the Sox schedule gets filled with over .500 clubs in the form of the Tigers, Twins, Yanks, Boston, and the Angels. 11 series in all. Out of 20 (including the current one against the Ms) remaining.

Of course, if the Sox continue to pitch as they have (Jenks' issues aside), I don't think it'll matter a whole ton who we face. The simple fact is that the Sox starters (outside of Hudson) have just been nasty. Sure Freddy was iffy over the weekend, but he got squeezed by the ump and caught some bad defensive breaks. That'll happen.

The fact that it's happened so rarely is amazing. Danks, Buehrle, Floyd, and Big Game Fred have just been lights out. And they're showing no signs of slowing down. As I've discussed before, it seems clear that these guys are feeding off of each other, trying to one-up each other's outings every time.

So I'm glad that Ozzie has repaid their great work by showing very little patience with Jenks ruining it. The rest of the guys in the pen and the starters have been too damn good for the inconsistent Jenks to deserve a long leash. Especially because it's not the end of the world for Bobby or the club to have the guy spend some time in a spot relief role getting his stuff back. Rest the arm, rest the psyche, and create opportunities for the big guy to get all of his bullets back.

When Jenks is on, he's tough to beat. He's got a nasty curve, still enough giddy-up to get it by guys, and an attacking attitude that is a must for any good closer. But when Jenks is off, he relies too much on his breaking stuff, doesn't attack the zone, and can't put hitters away when the count is in his favor.

So let's hope Jenks does rediscover what works. No question that's the best thing for the Sox, as a pen with a dominant Jenks and the continued stellar work of Thornton, Putz, Santos, and Threet would be untouchable. And few things are as important to a stretch run and playoff success as a nasty deep bullpen.

What else is important to a stretch run and playoff success? Starting pitching and a lineup that produces from top to bottom. And tomorrow I'll discuss a few ways that the Sox can look to upgrade either or maybe even both before Saturday's trade deadline.

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