2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part I (C & 1B)

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The Sox didn't demand our interest until mid-June, after the Hawks had finished up and they finally got all the right pieces in places, producing as they should. And they stopped deserving our interest around mid-August, when the Bears showed up and the Sox lost must-win series after must-win series without really much drama along the way.

So I don't think many Sox fans were too up to speed on what really happened in 2010. I think it kind of will end up as a bit of a forgotten year. And for about 3.5 months of the season (everything outside of early June to late July), that's not a bad thing. But, to understand what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. Today, we'll start with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as we look at C and 1B. I'll follow up with 2B, 3B, and SS (here), then go to LF and CF(here), before finishing with RF and the DH (here). From there, it's on to the SPs and then RPs.

C: AJ and Castro

AJ was definitely one of the culprits behind the slow start, both in his inability to hit anything (average entering June 9th, i.e. the night the Sox got hot: .219, with an OBA and SLG that were just as terrible) and for whatever blame he deserves in the failures of the starting rotation to show the consistency they should have.

The good news is in the second half, AJ was the AJ he's always been, hitting .299 to suggest the first few months were just a long slump and not a sign of significant decline due to his advancing age. More encouraging was that AJ, a notoriously bad RISP performer, hit .300 with runners to be driven in this season (despite the terrible first half).

It's not always clear how much credit or blame catcher's deserve, but the pitching staff also did settle down and put up post-May numbers more along what you'd expect, with the lion's share of pitching issues in the second half stemming from bullpen injuries. So the evidence seems to suggest that AJ handled the pitchers like he always has, especially once the team got out of its funk, and that for the near future, you should expect more of the same.

As for Castro, the back-up catcher role on a team with a guy like AJ only left 115 ABs (actually 130, given Castro missed the start of the year), but he definitely did the job with some nice pop and solid work behind the plate. The past two seasons Castro has had a slightly higher ERA behind the plate than AJ, but nothing so stark to think that he isn't doing a good job for a reserve catcher. In all, this guy is about as good as you'd hope out of this slot, especially this season, with his .278 average and impressive .504 SLG %.

In all, I'd say the Sox wouldn't be in a bad position if they were able to bring back Castro and AJ next season. AJ made $6.25M last year, but he definitely won't get that again. The Giants resigned Bengie Molina to a 1 year, $4.5M deal last off-season, and I'd imagine that's the ceiling AJ can hope for, given Molina is a renowned clubhouse asset while AJ is a personality a lot of teams won't touch (I'd say to their own detriment).

In news that not many followed, the Sox actually exercised Castro's $1.2M option (instead of a $200k buy-out), meaning their back-up slot is set for next year. I applaud that move, but hope the Sox don't have any delusions about Castro being a reasonable fall-back if they decide to let AJ go and test out Flowers.

Flowers just hasn't proven he's ready, hitting a paltry .220 in AAA this season (altho he did show good pop and a great ability to get on base). I'd much rather see Flowers given another Spring Training to learn a bit more about the big league pitchers and then a few more months of AAA work to get himself going in the right direction before he's brought up in a time-share before being handed the reigns in 2012.

So I'm definitely bringing back AJ for around that $4M, one-year deal that Molina got last year and if I'm AJ, I'm taking that. He's too old to get anything much longer, especially in this day and age of impressive Free Agent spending responsibility by MLB teams, and without any power, his reputation issues, and a middling defensive/pitcher handler reputation, AJ should be happy to get a fulltime starting gig for still very solid money with a franchise that he's done well with.

This type of one-year deal has two other advantages for the Sox - it keeps them from having to go out and find some other capable big league catcher to fill so many of AJ's innings and allows the Sox to gradually push AJ aside for Flowers (if they're still in contention) or even deal him for some token piece (if they're out of it). There's always a contending club that can use a World Series winning, left-handed catcher like AJ.

If the Sox do part ways with AJ, I'm going to be very curious what direction they go in. Catcher is never a deep position and rarely do teams feel they have an expendable big-league starter around. I guess I wouldn't be too heart-broken if they got a strong defensive catcher to share the duties with Castro until Flowers emerges, but only if it's at a significant cost saving over AJ. Otherwise, bring back AJ for a year, even two if necessary (again, the guy will remain tradeable) and focus your off-season efforts on more pressing needs.


1B Konerko

I think we'll see over the next few seasons that this was Konerko's final hurrah as a premier slugger, the one last rejuvenation season that a lot of good players stumble into along their slow but sure decline. The more cynical out there will credit this great year to his status as an impending free agent, but Sox fans know Paulie takes his personal failures WAY too hard to ever allow any room for a little something extra in the walk year.

The simple fact was that Paulie just had some good timing. After being a 40-110 guy from 04-06, Paulie had taken a step back to a still potent 30-90 level the past three seasons. Somehow he rediscovered his 40-110 stuff for this year and the Sox were in need of every bit of it.

However, for the next 3 years, I think you've got to be content if Paulie can consistently give you 30-90 production. 40-110 is not gonna happen and to be honest, 20-75 is probably more likely than a continuation of what he was this season. Remember, Paulie is a guy who's already had a couple of disastrous seasons to his credit right during his prime.

The question is whether one retarded GM can't come to the same obvious conclusions that your trusty Sox blogger just did. Cause all it takes is one idiot to talk himself into Paulie being a legit 40-110 guy and giving that kind of money for 3-5 years, despite his 35th birthday coming up next season.

But I'm just not seeing that. Not when Adam Dunn is gonna take one big spender off the market, Prince Fielder possibly on the block, and guys like DLee, Aubrey Huff, Lance Berkman, and Jim Thome out there competing for the same 1B/DH slots. I think Paulie fits somewhere between the $12.5M 1-year option that BoSox just exercised on Big Papi and the $4M and $6M 1-year deals that Huff and Adam LaRoche signed last off-season.

Again, unless someone is an idiot (always possible, I don't see Paulie over $10M per, certainly not for more than a year. I think he's got to expect down near maybe $8-9M. Every off-season at least one highly viable players comes off a good season, over-prices himself, and then is left to scramble for whatever he can get. It's possible that Paulie will be that guy and we see him sign a one year deal somewhere for $5-7M next February.

But if he's not an idiot, I think the Sox should be able to get him back for right around $8-9M, with the issue being whether the Sox would commit to three years or Paulie would accept two. If the Sox are too cheap to give him $8-9M or too misguided to give him two years, they're making a big mistake. Paulie will remain productive enough and is a good fit for this franchise and clubhouse. Replacing him with someone else - a must if you want to compete next season - will not be easy in either free agency or the trade market, nor do they have any obvious in-house options.

The simple fact is that the Sox can't afford to lose another legit, proven slugger. I don't subscribe to the idea that they need to reverse course and go back to a softball lineup with some aging boomer at DH again, but if you aren't gonna go that route, you sure can't then also jettison your slugging 1B for some mediocre free agent or unproven prospect.

On the other side of things, I'm gonna be upset with Paulie if the Sox make a legit $8M+ offer for two years or more and he doesn't bite. Sure, he can frame it as wanting to be closer to his family, but that's a fair market offer from a team that's committed to you through thick and thin - it'd be a real slap in the face if Paulie walks away from that, given that this is a team capable of great things in the next year or two.

As for the options if the Sox don't re-sign Paulie? I really have no idea. All the rumors are that the Sox were hot for Adam Dunn at the deadline, but does that interest continue given the big money he's expected to demand? Ditto with Prince Fielder - the Sox supposedly kicked the tires there, but do they actually have the juice to pry away such a young star from the Brewers?

The Sox do have an extra young frontline starting pitching arm to dangle, but would the Sox give up three more affordable Floyd years or two more affordable Danks ones? And would Milwaukee really do it for just one year of Ed Jackson?

Of course, there are other possibilities out there and don't discount Kenny doing something no one saw coming. In fact, that's probably the one thing you can count on - Kenny will pull off some deal this off-season that nets him somebody that hadn't been rumored. Maybe that's the direction Kenny will go at 1B, tho I can't even begin to guess at a worthy #3 or #4 hitting replacement who's actually available.

But hey, that's half the fun of a GM like Kenny, so keep an eye out.

Tomorrow - 2B, 3B, and SS (here).

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