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Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.
For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). I'll finish up the hitters with RF and DH tomorrow (here), then follow up with SPs and finally RPs.
Today - LF and CF.
LF Pierre
Few players are the subject of a greater difference of opinion between old schooler baseball game watchers and new school baseball numbers crunchers. While I certainly dig the value of all the new stats that are out there now, including the way it's forced "conventional baseball wisdom" to be challenged (still not nearly enough, I would say), I feel that stats can never tell you the whole story about a player's effect on the game in a day-in and day-out way.
Numbers can certainly tell you part of the story, some parts that you couldn't see w/o numbers. But just citing a bunch of stats to discount (or justify) a player's worth is asinine if you aren't also factoring in the massive amount of baseball value a player can have that won't be reflected in the numbers.
JP is the perfect example - the stat heads will sweat to you that he's a terrible lead-off hitter because he's not a great OBA guy. First off, these very stat heads are ignoring their own numbers - JP has a career OBA of .347 and has only once dipped below .330 in any single season. Those are respectable numbers for a guy w/o any power stroke (i.e. someone that pitchers don't feel the need to pitch around) and w/ amazing speed (i.e. someone pitchers are going to work hard from allowing to get to first).
JP is not some undisciplined free swinging speedster who "can't steal" first base. Taking away your non-top of the order guys (i.e. those too guy not to hit #3-5) and JP's OBA is right around average, if not better.
But even given that, stat heads still love to look at their computer simulations, ignore the reality of baseball, and claim a team would be better off with some lumbering high OBA doof at the top of the order rather than Pierre.
This ignores a number of things - first off, it's not easy to find guys with high OBAs to hit leadoff. Go through the league leaders and you'll find mostly guys hitting #3-5, not top of the order bats. When you finally do get down to some #1 and #2 hitters, you're talking franchise cornerstones who you could never acquire or fluke seasons you wouldn't want to bank on repeating.
In fact, check out the list of 450+ AB guys w/ an OBA above Pierre's .341 this year who could be reasonably considered #1 or #2 hitters - they all fall into those two above categories. It's possible I missed a guy or two, but for the most part, these are you 2010 top of the order guys who had a superior OBA to Pierre:
Gardner, McCutcheon, Ichiro, Crawford, Prado, Castro, AJackson, Torres, and Andrus - all guys that would cost a boatload to trade for, if the team would even listen. And as Crawford will prove this year - if they did reach free agency, they'd cost you a fortune.
The rest - KJohnson, Weeks, Infante, Damon, Abreu, Keppinger, and Pods - are either old, had a fluke year, or absurdly inconsistent... or maybe two or all three of those things.
The point? The next time someone tells you that Pierre is a terrible lead-off hitter, ask them to show you a superior one. If they point to someone in that first group, ask them how exactly the White Sox were supposed to get that guy. I mean I love Tim Lincecum, but his existence isn't proof that Mark Buehrle shouldn't be in our rotation.
So that about takes care of the nonsense about JP's OBA - what about appreciating the value he brings? How about a league best 68 steals? Or his 96 runs? Or my favorite - the 179 hits, 45 walks, and league leading 21 HBPs which add up to a whopping 245 times that JP got on base this season, just rearing to be driven in?
As I said before the season in my ode to JP (here) - the guy plays everyday, is wicked consistent, finds a way to get on base, wreaks havoc on pitchers, and will score runs.
This season JP did all of that. He appeared in 160 games, scored 14+ runs and stole 10+ bases in every month but one, had those 245 times on base, those 68 steals, and those 96 runs.
So what didn't Pierre do? He's not a great left-fielder, but he also doesn't hurt you like a lot of guys out there, even if he has no arm to speak of. JP clearly didn't hit for power, but that's not his role nor expectation. Really the only legit gripe you could have with him is that he struggled mightily throughout April, being a major reason the Sox were so slow out of the gate.
One of the reasons I'm such a big Pierre fan is because I think leadoff hitter is the single most under-valued role in all of baseball (followed closely by non-closers in the pen, tho that's changing, as I'll shortly discuss). But I can't praise the importance of a good lead-off hitter without also pointing out that a bad lead-off hitter can be hugely detrimental.
While Pierre did right the ship and end up with the same numbers he always gets, there's no question his slow start added to the long, painful stretch that lasted from Opening Day until June 9th. JP's colossal struggles in April (.193 average) put undue pressure on every other facet of the ballclub and the dismal results are telling.
So yeah, Pierre let us down a bit to start the year, but at the end of the day, he was crucial to our rebirth and ultimately ended up with enough regular contributions that this club should definitely have been able to make it to the post-season. And I expect him to do that very same thing again next year - at the end of 2011, JP will have the same .285 AVG, .340 OBA, 95 R, and 60 SB he always does.
And that kind of production is outstanding for a leadoff hitter. Especially those SBs - I've preached about this a ton before, but it bears repeating in any discussion of JP's value both looking back and down the road. A guy who can get on base and move around like Pierre can effects things a lot more than the simple numbers will show.
There's no question the guys after him see better pitches as pitchers are distracted and limited in what they can throw. There's no question JP's ability to turn an infield single, walk, or HBP into a double or even triple allows the offense to create runs even when it's not making good contact.
But most important, with Ozzie, the presence of a guy like JP in the lineup helps turns the focus from waiting for a 3-run homer to working to scratch across one run. And when you focus on doing everything you can for one run at each juncture, that's when you get a steady stream of runs that allows you a shot to win every single day. And that's a far better recipe for full-season success than the softball beer league approach of walks and big bombs, which will give you 12 runs one day and then 1 or 2 the next.
Stat heads would say go with the big homer approach - it'll net you 15 runs. They ignore that those types of big inning runs come in bunches and, thus disappear for long stretches. Me - I'd rather have 3-5 runs every day, allowing me a chance to find a way to win every time out.
So, after finally getting to see him in a White Sox uni, I'm as convinced as ever that there's no one I'd rather see leading off for the Sox next year than Pierre - any one else is either gonna be far worse for this team's success or unrealistic to actually attain. And I hope he does well enough that the Sox decide to give him another couple of years. I think Pierre takes care of himself well and will remain a productive lead off hitter for another 3-5 years. Given all the issues we've had at the leadoff spot, I'd love to see this guy locked into it for a while.
CF Rios
At one point Rios was hitting up over .300 with great power and looked like a perennial all-star worth every penny of the $12M+ per year he's owed. He came back to Earth in the second half, but in all Rios has proven to me that while he's a bit overpaid, it's not by much. The fact is that CFs who can play good defense (which he can), have good arms (which he does), can hit for power and flash speed (which his 21 HRs and 34 steals attest to), and will hit around .285 are well worth having around, especially during their prime (which he is, at 29).
Look at his carer numbers, his year-by-years, they both tell you the same thing - that this season's stat line is what you can hope for out of Rios pretty much every year. And I'm plenty happy with that. Ideally the Sox can find a hitter a bit more capable in the #3 slot and let Rios be a nice bit of speed back at the #5 or #6 slot.
However, the Sox can survive with him as a softer hitting #3 than you'd like both because they've got production further down in the lineup in the form of guys like Beckham and Alexei, and because having speed in the middle of the order creates a lot more ways to score.
In all, I think Rios is one of those guys you head into the year knowing what you're getting and he pretty much delivers. He may be a bit up and down as he does, but by October you'll have the same set of stats - .290 with 20 HRs, 85 R, 85 RBI and 25 steals... give or take. From my plus defensive CF? Yes please.
It was a risky move by Kenny taking on all that salary when Rios was strugglin for Toronto last season and it looked brutal when the kid came over and couldn't even hit .200 down the stretch. But the way Rios played this season and what we've seen from him in the past, I think this will go down as a solid move by our GM. Not amazing - Rios is making some pretty hefty dollars - but definitely something that will help this club win.
Tomorrow - RF and DH (here).
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