Is Crow On The Menu? (Part II)

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Yesterday I discussed the big intangible Teahen brings to the table that might just save his acquisition and contract extension from being a major bust - something I absolutely thought it would be originally. As my buddy posted in the comments section, just being funny sounds like a pretty rah-tarded thing to make up for mediocre play on the field.

Sort of true, but one guy really can make a difference in the demeanor of a team, and that difference can mean you win more ballgames. Plus, as I should have stressed, 3B for most teams is not somewhere you get much for production. Look around the league and aside a handful of guys like ARod, Longoria, and a few others, most teams have nothing but offensive mediocrity at the hot corner.

If Teahen can be like so many of those others and hold his own defensively while playing every day, he'll be a serviceable 3B. And a serviceable 3B who help keeps your team with the right attitude? I'll take it.


But today I'm not asking you to make such an intangible leap of faith. Instead, I look at the very tangible reasons adding Andruw Jones this offseason could end up not looking stupid - another outcome I originally thought to be fairly definite.

Why the change on Andruw Jones - it's pretty straight forward stuff. I will say I still can't believe they committed to a guy who hit under .220 in four straight months last year, all while playing in Texas, where EVERYONE hits, and had regressed so far defensively that he was mainly a DH.

But I've since learned he didn't get $1M, but instead only a $500k deal. It's not the difference in dollars per se, it's that $500k basically is the league minimum. So they paid the least amount of money they could to fill a roster spot. Viewed that way, why not take a shot at some career rejuvenation? Jones is still only 32 and with his financial gravy train doneski, maybe the motivation is now restored.

That still doesn't justify counting on a guy like Jones to play a significant role on the team, which at this point the Sox are. They didn't sign a true DH, which I like in principle, but am leery if the plan is that Jones can somehow handle a portion of those at-bats. Again, in June, July, August, and September of last year, he couldn't manage to hit over .220. In Texas. Where Milton Bradley and Gary Matthews (the two biggest salary dumps of this off-season) were offensive stars.

But two things are changing my mind. The first is simple - if there's anything in baseball that's easy to get, it's a right-handed bat. If you don't care what position he plays and don't need him to bat from the left side (both true for the Sox), then you pretty much can go to about half the teams in the league and they'll have someone they can offload on you. If Jones doesn't get it done by the end of April, Kenny can easily find himself another option via trade. So can I really sit here and say that I think the Sox downfall will be relying on Jones when I know they can so easily replace him?

The other thing - Jones has looked and sounded like a different player this spring. He's lighter, he's driven, and he's producing. Sure it's Spring Training, but it's definitely better than him not doing those things. At least the possibility is still there. And everything he's been saying sounds like he wants it bad. Jones is not content to be a right-handed bench option. He's not even content to be the main DH or a semi-regular OF.

No, Druw Jones expects to win that starting CF spot at sometime this season. And not just with his bat - he's apparently driven to show that he can still play center as good as anyone in the game. That's a statement that used to be undeniable, but in recent years seemed impossible.

Is Jones about the 10,000th player to come into camp in great shape and profess a new lease on life? Yep. Is he the 10,000th player to tantalize with a return to previous stardom? Yep. Could he be one of the small, small minority who actually comes through? Why not. The guy always was a head case. Even at his peak, you weren't sure you were getting his all. No one ever put a ceiling on this guy. He could steal, hit for power, and holy cow could he cover center.

At 32, there's no reason to think he's done. Will he be the Gold Glover he was for a decade? Probably not, as even fully committed, defense is a young man's game. But could he be a plus defender in all three OF positions? Yep - very plausible. And could he really get his offense back? Well, he never was a guy who hit for average, but he could definitely hit for power and drive in runs. Why couldn't he do it again? Plenty of players have good to great years from 32 to 34.

And that could end up being very necessary for the Sox. Rios and Quentin are huge question marks in the OF. Rios could hit .200 again and/or Quentin could be back on the shelf. Or a fluke injury to Pierre or Konerko (both impressively injury-free in their careers) or even Kotsay could put extra pressure on the Sox. And the guy who answers the bell might just be Jones. You can't think of a single good season by any team in baseball that didn't involve somebody unexpectedly stepping up and coming through in spades.


Look, I'm not pulling a 180 and saying these two moves which I previously loathed are now going to be the reason we win another ring. I'm just saying that I'm not as assured as before that I'm going to hate these moves. Teahen could be serviceable at third and bring something I find very necessary to the team dynamic. And Druw Jones could just rediscover what once made him good, at least enough to earn some starts in all three spots in the OF and to help the club with his 300-400 ABs.

The possibility is there, which is all you ask for. And as a fan, that's what you're hoping for - I want to be able to get a little bit excited about every part of this club. Despite my earlier assurances I couldn't, I'm starting to come around. There's a glimmer of hope that Teahen and Andruw Jones won't be stains on Kenny's resume. And that hope is what makes this time of year so fun in baseball.

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Is Crow On The Menu? (Part I)

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I'm pretty damn pumped about the Sox this season and while I'm always the optimist, this year really has a special feel to it. I am buying into the way they've figured out that their best year was in 2005 and thus intelligently tried to replicate it.

Gone is the softball lineup, back is the speed and top-to-bottom dynamic approach (and I'd argue, done so in an even better way than in 2005).

Gone are unproven arms in the pen, back is a stable of guys who might end up being a dominant 7th, 8th, or 9th inning arm this year (five different guys have a long history of doing just that).

Gone are unreliable youngsters and gutless vets in the rotation, back is a one through five group where anyone can win 17 (all but Danks already have).

However, I haven't agreed with everything Kenny and Ozzie have done. Specifically, I was totally blown away by the decision to acquire Mark Teahen and give him $15M for the next three seasons. And I didn't see any wisdom to bringing in Andruw Jones and counting on him for significant semi-regular production.

Today - why I no longer hate the Teahen moves. Tomorrow - why I no longer hate the Andruw Jones move.

With Teahen, I've since come around on the motivation to move Getz. Beckham is a franchise cornerstone and the team wanted him at 2B. That means Getz had to go, despite the scrappy value and upside he had. Hey, that happens - you can't always find a spot for everyone and certainly Getz doesn't seem like a guy who will be remembered as "the one that got away."

However, I'm still uncertain if the corresponding move was to add Teahen. And then give him $5M per for three. To me his stats SCREAM mediocre utility IF, and those guys are a dime a dozen, easily had for $1M and a one year deal. Heck, even if you see his high end as a legit starting 3B, you can't expect him to be better Juan Uribe or Pedro Feliz, who both signed only one year deals for around $4-5M. And both of those guys are known as plus glove men, which Teahen is not.

But here's the thing - I may end up eating crow on this. Teahen's career numbers (outside of a fluke stretch in 2005) and his Spring numbers suggest otherwise. But I'm starting to come around to the idea that Teahen brings more to the table than the numbers. Maybe hitting .270 in the #9 hole and being average defensively at third will be enough.

Why? Because Teahen apparently is a bigtime jokester. Sounds like a ludicrous reason to forgive a stunning lack of production and overpayment, but I'm a big believer in chemistry. Not just in how the guys like each other, but what they bring out of each other. I made a big deal at the beginning of last year that losing The OC and Swish would hurt this team. They both brought something necessary to the clubhouse and I didn't see anyone replacing it.

Was that the reason we struggled instead of returning to the playoffs? You know, I think it was part of it. Not the major part, but a part. And just like a utility infielder or second lefty out of the pen, even smaller parts are important when your goal is winning the whole damn thing. So yeah, I think it hurt to lose The OC's intense, dickish need to perform.

The guy has done nothing but play in the postseason since he was traded from Montreal to the BoSox in 2004 - I think his attitude is one of those reasons. You need a guy who you don't feel too comfortable around, who you fear you'll piss off. Who keeps you focused on doing your job because you don't want to deal with his bitchiness if you don't. Given how low key so many of the Sox leaders were, I think they needed OC around. Combined with AJ, you had a few guys ratcheting up the intensity, not in a rah-rah way, but in a this-shit-is-for-real way.

Swish actually brings the opposite, but I think it's equally necessary to having a winner. The guy's light-hearted, goofy approach is a crucial to surviving a marathon schedule. A 162 game season filled with weeklong roadtrips twice a month, with games each and every day. Hell, for most of these players, even being home isn't really home - they live in other parts of the country (or world) during the off-season.

It ain't easy to get up for every game, but it sure helps if you've got a guy who's making it fun along the way. Especially as you hit those slumps or losing streaks or just dog days of summer. Swish brought an idiocy to that 2008 team that everyone commented on - it was a clubhouse unlike any other. This from a team who'd spent 2006 and 2007 being a bunch of boring, low key stiffs incapable of getting the most out of their impressive collection of talent.

And that's why I'm mildly hopeful that my three different off-season posts whining about the idiocy of the Teahen acquisition and extension won't be part of my Best Hits compilation. From everything I've heard, he's a force of personality who will bring the joy and camaraderie that a team needs to reach that next level. Loosen guys up, keep them having fun with the game, and keep the energy level where it needs to be night in and night out.

That stuff matters. Every one in the bigs has talent. Every team is capable of winning, especially if you just want to talk about a single game. So having that slight edge of feeling loose, feeling good, being excited about baseball - that might be what you need to bring out the full talent of the squad and getting it playing beyond the sum of its parts.

You can't watch sports and not believe that the intangibles play a major part. What's predicted on paper rarely is what plays out. So I'm buying into this possibility - that Teahen's mediocre play will suffice, given what's needed of him (just not be a sure-out in the lineup or a detriment in the field). Because he's going to be important to keeping an interesting mix of personalities in the right mindset to play some special baseball this year.


Tomorrow - why Andruw Jones might not be Ken Griffey Junior Part II.

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Fatal Flaw In The DH Plan

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I don't exactly know what to make of Thome's departure from the Sox and his subsequent signing with the Twins. On some level I dig the Sox plan, but I'm not sure they are executing it correctly.

I certainly respect the hell out of Thome, that's fore sure. He waited around for the Sox to make their decision before he made a move, even, as it became clear, he had moves ready to be made. But that's no different than before - this guy was always a class act.

I will certainly miss Thome's presence in the lineup. I didn't give it the full credit it deserved until I ran the numbers last year on how guys hit with runners in scoring position (that post can be found here). Dye and AJ pretty much regularly suck, Konerko is solid enough, but Big Jim was always a beast. Even as his average dipped these last few years, up until midway through last year, the guy consistently hit over .300 for the Sox when guys were there to be driven in. That's damn impressive.

While we as fans might not have appreciated it, I promise you that opposing pitchers did. They had to change their whole approach to account for the kind of run producer Thome was, especially if you were a right-hander (as the great majority of pitchers are, especially in the AL Central).


Having said all of that, I get what the Sox are thinking. While Thome's average with runners in scoring position remained strong through most of last year, it did ultimately dip to around .250 for the year. That's quite a drop from the .300+ he had his first three seasons on the South Side. Often with big sluggers, it's not a matter of a gradual loss of skills but an almost instant one. Had Thome started that quick slide - like All-Star mashers Giambi, McGwire, and Jim Rice, among others, had previously done?

On top of that, every season you were waiting for that back to flair up and knock Thome out for good. Even these past few years it would cost him a couple of games, sometimes even a DL stint. And at his age, who knows if some other ailment will come up - knees, feet, shoulder, elbow. Maybe it wouldn't have just been a few games or a few weeks, but a few months this time. Thome was a real risk, plain and simple.


So Thome himself wasn't perfectly attractive. And aside that, I actually do dig what the Sox are thinking with freeing up their DH slot. The fulltime DH has all but disappeared. The last two remaining - Ortiz and Hafner - are shells of their former selves and probably still around as much because of bloated contracts as their contributions. As someone who's long called for a dynamic offense, I do appreciate losing a slow, station-to-station bat and replacing it with a combination of guys who bring a more diverse skill set to the table.

But again - while I see the theory, I don't see the execution. The simple fact is that the Sox don't have the right mix of hitters to make this work.

Their utility IF - Vizquel - will get all the at-bats he needs as an occasional sub at all three spots. Plus, Vizquel's value comes in his glove, not his bat. Putting him at the DH slot is idiotic, as Vizquel could be one of the least productive offense players in the game this year.

I guess I can see the idea of using Vizquel out in the field and then giving the IFs a day in the DH slot, saving their legs and bodies but keeping their bats in the lineup. But so far I haven't heard that to be part of the Sox plans - there's been no mention of Beckham, Teahen, and Alexei, even here and there, when the DH is discussed. So in that, I don't think the Sox are properly approaching this strategy.

Their utility 1B/OF - Kotsay - is similar in that he should get plenty of at-bats spelling Quentin and Konerko. But here actually I think the Sox are executing correctly - it does sound like they plan on sitting Paulie and Carlos a good amount, but keeping them as a DH so their extremely important bats aren't out of the lineup. Without a full-time DH, these two guys are the only legit middle of the order bats the Sox have - you really can't afford many games without both playing.


So I like that aspect - getting key guys rest but not losing their bats - but wish they'd use it for their entire lineup. I'd love a rotation of Kotsay and Vizquel getting days in the field while Beckham, Teahen, Ramirez, Quentin, Paulie, and even Pierre get one day off every two weeks. Throw AJ into that mix, too - you'd love to free up his legs from the wear and tear, but not lose the solid veteran bat.

However, that still leaves a lot of DH at-bats that need to be filled, maybe even half of a season's worth.

And therein lies the flaw in the Sox plan - as it stands, those spots will be heavily filled by one Andruw Jones.

So far I haven't heard a lot of outrage over the Andruw Jones signing, so while I've posted about how terrible he is before (here), I'm gonna have to resort to BOLD in order to drive home the reality of how TERRIBLE this guy is.

Andruw Jones' averages:

2007 - .222 in 572 ABs.
2008 - .158 in 209 ABs.
2009 - .214 in 281 ABs.

And just so you don't trick yourself into believing he might be rounding back into form, check out his monthly averages last year:

April - .344
May - .245
June - .170
July - .209
August - .167
Sept - .111

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? THIS IS THE GUY KENNY EXPECTS TO GET 300-400 ABS IN THE DH SLOT?!? A GUY WHO CAN'T HIT IN THE MOST HITTER FRIENDLY PARK IN BASEBALL? WHERE JOURNEYMEN BUMS REGULARLY HAVE THEIR CAREERS REVIVED (SEE MATTHEWS, GARY OR BRADLEY, MILTON OR BYRD, MARLON)?!?

OK, I'll stop now. I think I've made my point. This guy is terrible. So much so that I'd be shocked if he makes it past the middle of May. Hell, I'd give him 50-50 odds to even make it out of Spring Training. The guy is that bad. And no, I see absolutely NO chance that Ozzie somehow gets to him or that Greg Walker fixes him. Not happening - Jones has been too bad for too long to think that he'll suddenly get it.

Druw Jones is done and will join Griffey Jr. and Todd Ritchie in the very small Hall of Awful Moves Kenny Made.


So to me that's the the fatal flaw in Kenny's plan. He's one guy short. And to me, it could be any guy who can bring something to the table offensively. Obviously you think of a left-handed slugger, but I'd also settle on a speed-type. Give me another Pablo Ozuna to plug in at #2 or the back of the order. Or just a stable bat - a Mark Loretta type who can hit .300, get on base decently enough, and just be a reliable hitter deep in the order.

But I'm curious if Kenny shares my thinking. As I've mentioned before, last year the free agent market was so down that two proven bigtime middle of the order bats (Abreu and Dunn) were forced to take short term, under market value deals just to have somewhere to play. Supposedly Kenny even kicked the tires on Abreu, but was handcuffed because no one would take Dye or Thome's contract before last season.

Is it possible that Kenny is leaving himself open to add that Abreu/Dunn type this year? Maybe not even someone that good, but someone else who should be getting regular big league at-bats? Two guys I was looking at - Randy Winn and Tejada - just signed for dirt cheap with the Yanks and Orioles, respectively. But others are still out there, like:

Felipe Lopez - he's all over the map offensively, but certainly could be a real asset. He's shown speed (stole 44 bases in 06) and power (hit 23 jacks in 05) and average (batted .310 last year). Most likely all of those were flukes, but he can definitely run a bit, flash a bit of power, and hit for average. He's not an OBA machine, but he's also not a free-swinger. He can play all three IF spots (though he's more suited for the middle) and even has played some LF.

Because Lopez is still out there, his salary demands can't be much. For a million or two, he would give you a nice dynamic presence for the top or bottom of the lineup, while also filling in nicely around the diamond.

Carlos Delgado - similar to Thome in that he's in his late 30s and is a hell of a power-hitting lefty with something left in the tank. However, the advantage Delgado provides is that he can actually be counted on to play some 1B. That would definitely allow Ozzie to get him more ABs than he was talking about with Thome, and just might make Delgado a decent fit on the Southside.

Delgado is coming off of a hip surgery, but it's similar to what ARod and Chase Utley came back from last year with very good seasons. While he looked washed up in 2007, he bounced back with a monster 2008 (38 HR, 115 RBI) and was off to a good start last year (.298, 4 HR, 23 RBI in 94 AB) before he had to shut it down.

This guy has been as consistent of a slugger as anyone in baseball. Delgado's just 27 HRs away from 500, so he's highly motivated to stay healthy and produce. He's also not gonna cost much (there's barely any market out there) and probably will be on a one-year deal, driven to earn himself one last big paycheck.

I can see Delgado appreciating the chance to get around 400 ABs in a lineup as good as the Sox and playing at a home field as friendly as The Cell. And one key point to remember - this was a guy Kenny has tried to acquire before. If we've learned anything about Kenny, it's that he loves to bring in guys he's gone after in the past (both Alomars, Everett, Griffey, Druw Jones, Freddy Garcia, Colon). That makes Delgado a quietly semi-likely possibility.

Johnny Damon - Much like my excitement about Pierre, I'd go nuts if the Sox added Damon. Now let me qualify that by saying I fully understand he's not a perfect fit. An outfield with Damon and Pierre in it would be as soft-armed as any in the history of the game, not to mention requiring one to play center, where both are below average. Even with Damon playing more DH than not, the plan would still require him to get into the field a good amount, and that would definitely hurt our pitchers.

Still, Damon is out there, with little to no options left, but bringing exactly the kind of bat the Sox could use. He's only been starting 120-130 games the past three years, so he's basically already at the type of at-bat load the Sox are offering. In the second half of his career, Damon's averaged around 20 HRs and 25 steals, hitting near .290 with a .365 OBA, while scoring over 100 runs and driving in about 70 from the top of the order.

Look at those numbers again. Really, go back and think about those. Now at 36 he's not a blazing speedster anymore, but on an Ozzie team more focused on being dynamic, he could easily still steal 20-30 (he did steal 29 as recently as 2008). In the Cell, he's still good for 20 HRs. He's also become a nice OBA guy who handled the transition from leadoff to #2 very well for the Yanks last year. And on top of that, he's been a good post-season performer, hitting .279 with 9 HRs and 13 steals in 55 playoff games.

Again, he's not an ideal fit, in that getting him OF at-bats would mean either sitting Pierre (your leadoff hitter and a guy who expects to play 162 games) or a rag-armed OF with a sub-par centerfielder. But while I'm a HUGE proponent of defense and feel it's vastly underrated in its effect on your pitching staff, I also believe that the trade-offs here would be worth it.

Damon's 400+ ABs in the #2 slot would produce exactly the kind of numbers we'd dream of behind Pierre and in front of Quentin, Paulie, and the rest. It'd also free up Beckham to develop himself as a hitter, rather than worry about doing the little things required of a #2 in that type of lineup. I can't imagine it'd cost more than $5M, maybe with a few incentives atop. You'd also be buying serious OF depth in case of the very real possibility that Rios is dead or Quentin breaks down yet again.


Personally, I don't care which direction the Sox go in with their rotating DH plan - I just want it to be a direction that is the exact opposite way of Andruw Jones. He's a fat, overpaid bum who's always dogged it, but now no longer has the natural talents to make up for it. And he's a prime candidate to be found out as a juicer given his precipitous offensive decline.

I'm not sure why the Sox signed him in the first place except that once again, Kenny was blind to how terrible a guy was because of how he loved the past version of him. But they can make up for that huge blunder (why was he given guaranteed money when a minor league deal was the best he was gonna get?) by going out and finding someone to better fill that part-time DH role.

Lopez, Delgado, and Damon each bring something different, none are perfect fits, but all would make the Sox offense significantly better while giving the team some very necessary depth in light of the question marks that surround so many of their players. Given how no current free agents can be expecting full time spots right and will come for cheap and shortterm, I'm gonna be pretty upset if the Sox don't bring one of them, or someone similar, into the mix before Opening Day.

Do that, and the Sox will have nailed their DH-strategy and made this team look damn good for 2010. Sit tight, and you're starting the year a man short, with any injury or early struggles something you'll be hard-pressed to overcome.

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Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999!

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In my uber-excited post about Juan Pierre, one of my many justifications for ebullience was that Kenny Williams can't just invent a time machine and go back and get a 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, so Pierre was as good as we could have hoped for the 2010 Sox.

But what if he can? I know, it sounds crazy, but bear with me here.

OK, don't bear with me - I'm really just using this line of nonsense to mock Kenny. Because his belief that he can actually go back through time is the only justification I can see for the signings of Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones, even in limited bench roles.

With a four-man bench (the standard in the Ozzie-Kenny era) and the way Ozzie likes to sit his regulars, these bench guys get a good 300+ ABs. And given that Kenny can't go back through time to 1999, or hell even 2006, the Sox are in for a world of hurt every single one of those times these two come to the plate.

Have you looked at the numbers? In 2006, Andruw Jones was still a force, winning yet another Gold Glove while jacking 41 dongs (after 51 the year previous) and driving in 129 (after a 128-RBI campaign). Since then? He's hit .222, .158, and .214.

Similarly, in 2006, Omar Vizquel hit .295, scored 88 runs, got on base at a .361 clip, stole 24 bases, and was still regarded as one of the best defensive SS in baseball. Since? .247, .222, and then a "resurgent" .266 last year.

These players are shells of what they once were and time just keeps on eroding their skills. Can we really expect a season's worth of solid production, even in a spot role, from these two?

The answer is an iffy "sort of" and a couldn't-be-more-convinced "no." Vizquel will be 43 in April and I definitely don't expect him to match the .260 average he had in Texas, where everyone hits. Instead, I'm expecting him to be back around the .220-.240 range he showed in his last two seasons in SF.

He's no longer a Gold Glove caliber defender, with age robbing him of the range and athleticism that made him one of the best of all time. Vizquel also isn't a big speed threat any more, again due to his advancing age. He's never had much for power or been a great OBA guy (tho he's not terrible at drawing walks). So what will the quadragenarian the give the Sox for the $1.4M he's guaranteed?

Actually, despite the tenor of the post until now, I believe he should give the Sox some decent intangibles and some solid role-playing skills. While he's no longer the game's premier defensive SS, he's still a very solid defender, not making a single error in 62 games. And that was in at least 16 games each at 2B, 3B, and SS. Defensively, Vizquel is a very capable utility infielder.

Vizquel also can still do the little things with his bat. He's never been one to strike out a lot, he can get some occasional walks, and most important to small-ball evangelists like myself, he's one of the games best bunters. Something I noticed in the Pierre press release was that Vizquel was the guy listed as the second active career leader in things like bunt hits, infield hits, and sacrifices.

Some of that is cause he's been around forever (one of only a handful of players still active to have 75+ hits in the 80s), but it's more because Vizquel has long been a guy who does well all the little things the game demands.

So yeah, Vizquel will most likely have a low average and get ripped by the casual fan who expects too much, but the real students of the Sox will notice the little things he does next year to help the team win. Hitting behind runners, bunting people over, taking an extra base on a single, etc etc. And they'll appreciate how he allows Ozzie to sit his infielders without any loss of defense (in fact, Vizquel might be a step up from all three... which just hit me and now has me scared for 2010... damn... I'm going to suppress that notion for a while).

But most of all, at least I hope, the good fans among us will appreciate how we're seeing a new Alexei next year - one fulfilling the mountain of promise he's got, one who no longer dazzles us one night and frustrates the next, but instead puts together a steady campaign - offensively and defensively - that lands him rightfully in talks about the best all-around infielders in baseball.

Alexei has a chance to be either a cornerstone on a very successful batch of Sox ballclubs, or to be a major reason for a string of disappointing seasons. He's really that volatile and that crucial. His defense is SUCH an issue, the way he mentally checks out on so many plays. Given the constant action that a shortstop sees, Alexei's brain lapses were killer last season.

But if put in the right mental state, Alexei could be a real force. He's got all the tools and he's shown for stretches that he can capitalize on those tools to impress both in the field and the batter's box. It's a bit hopeful to assume Vizquel can cure all that ails him, but it's also not outside the realm of reason. Plenty of players "figure it out" and having one of the game's best shortstops ever looking out for you is certainly one way to do it.

So, I'm not in love with how weak Vizquel's production will be, given that he'll surely get a ton of at-bats. And at his age, you have no idea if he'll just lose it completely. But I'm gonna bet that he does enough of those little things I love so much and has enough of a positive effect on Alexei (and Beckham, actually), that Kenny, even w/o a time machine, will be right on this one.


As for Druw Jones? I was iffy at first and tried to talk myself into it being no-risk, with only $1M guaranteed.

But after looking into it, the guy just can't field and just can't hit. I know he used to be the gold standard in center, but that when he wasn't fat, out-of-shape, and disinterested. Last year the Rangers mainly DHd him, only using him in the OF 17 times, and NEVER in center.

I'm gonna repeat that - don't fool yourself into thinking Andruw Jones has to at least be serviceable in center. He's not - he's fallen off completely and become a fielding liability. There's no other explanation for how the Rangers used him defensively last year except that.

And despite playing in Texas, where even the biggest journeyman scrubs have great offensive seasons (Gary Matthews or Milton Bradley, anyone?), Druw hit a whopping .214 with 72 Ks in only 281 ABs! But it gets worse - that .214 was bloated by a red hot April, where he hit .344 and respectable May, where he hit .245. After that? .170 in June, .209 in July, .167 in August, and .179 in September.

Are you freakin kidding me? We're going to give this guy at-bats? A guy who's "best" month of the final four was .209? Two. Oh. Nine. Didn't we see this movie last year, when it was called Dwayne Wise? Don't we know how terribly it ended? And at least he could field and run! I mean those are key skills and Wise clearly had them. Druw can't do either. He's here solely to hit. And he can't do that!!

With the lefty Kotsay already taking the majority of the corner OF ABs, Druw's role will be against lefties. But guess what - Jones hit a whopping .218 against lefties last year, with a mere .395 slugging percentage! Of his 17 HRs, only 4 came against southpaws (despite 45% of his plate appearance coming against them)! This was no great abberation either - over the course of his career, Druw hasn't really hit lefties any better than righties.

So what in the hell do the Sox see here? What they need in that bench spot is a righty who can play center well and give them speed. He doesn't have to hit (we've got Kotsay for that), just field well, be right-handed, and be able to run. Those guys grow on trees. I'm sure Brian Anderson is there for the taking. Joey Gathright. And a million other failed athletic CFs.

As it is, if we're carrying Druw on the roster, we either have to go to a 5th bench player and find some journeyman CF, or we're going to have to move Pierre over to center anytime Rios sits, or we're going to have to deal with yet another garbage CF incapable of playing the spot (remember Rob Mackowiak or the failed Griff Jr. experiment?).

It's possible he'll "turn it around" but what evidence is there of that? Jones has been a bum for three years, under three different coaches (two of them Hall of Famers - Cox and Torre), in three different places. So what possible faith do I have that this year on the Southside will be different?


My hope? At $1M, the Sox are willing to eat his contract, either before breakin Spring Training or after a horrendous April, with minimal damage to the club's chance in 2010. As I said, the spot he's filling is not particularly important. Kotsay will get the majority of the corner OF at-bats as the lefty, so they just need to find a guy who can play against the occasional lefty (and as a buddy of mine pointed out, the AL Central is woefully lacking them outside of Chicago), field his position, and maybe give them some speed off the bench. Shouldn't be too hard to find one of those once Druw's career is officially deemed over (and when he washes out with the Sox, it will be).

The only upside of the Jones signing? It's a clear indication that the Sox aren't done. They can pretend that Kotsay/Jones and a juggling of the starters will fill the DH role this year, but that's a load of crap. Kenny is a bright man and he saw what happened last year, as Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu were signed for relative peanuts shortly before the start of the season because no market ever developed for their services.

Since then, the economy has only gotten worse and teams have only felt the impacts of such for a longer time. Money will be even tighter this off-season and possibly even more high quality free agents will be available for a 1 year, $5M deal or the like. Kenny knows this is a distinct possibility and like always, is lying in the weeds waiting to add a player no one thought he'd be able to.

One such guy I'm salivating over? Johnny Damon. Why not? The Yanks seemed to have moved on and how many teams out there want to spend big money on a 36-year old leadoff guy who doesn't really run anymore, can't play well in the field, and will miss time throughout the year? Yet Damon's numbers remain strong and he still considers himself a high-priced guy, meaning he might be very late to accept the new realities of the free agent market.

Sounds a lot like Abreu (another aging Yankee cast-off) last year, doesn't it? Damon might just slip through the cracks, and might just end up on the Southside. He'd fit - Ozzie likes the idea of being able to juggle the OF and DH spots a bit, keeping Quentin healthy, keeping Rios and Pierre's legs fresh, and allowing Damon to rest his aging body. Damon would ably fill the #2 hole, with the long-proven top of the order skills that have lead teams to titles his whole career.

Wouldn't his .280+ average, 15+ HRs, 15+ steals, and .350+ OBA look good in that #2 slot? Right behind Pierre, the near-perfect lead-off guy for Ozzie? Ahead of Quentin and Paulie, with a back of the order that features dynamic young bats like Alexie, Rios, and Beckham, as well as a solid vet in AJ?

Who knows - Damon could sign tomorrow for $20M for 2. I know nothing about who's interested in him or what the Sox are really looking for. But my guess is that the Sox are just waiting to cheaply fill that DH with the best value guy who gets left behind during the free agent signing period. It'll probably come out of nowhere, be someone the Sox haven't ever been linked to (because the supposed asking price was out of reach), and happen very late in the off-season.

I just hope it's someone like Damon who fills a real need, and not just some washed up slugger with huge holes in his swing that will clog up the Sox order. Aside from Thome, who showed himself amazingly capable of driving in runs (his average with runners in scoring position and with runners on-base were ALWAYS well higher than his normal such numbers), I'm not interested in some cheesy DH bat-for hire. I want someone who's a bit more dynamic, like an Abreu or a Damon.

Let's hope the fates again smile on the Sox this off-season. And that Druw Jones gets cut before we're forced to watch him pretend to care about hitting.

HAPPY! HAPPY! JOY! JOY!

-

"Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!" - Harry Dunne

I've made my dissatisfaction with Kenny's off-season moves very, very clear. Mainly I've focused on Teahen, but I also really don't like the Andruw Jones signing. I actually just wrote a fairly sizeable amount about how incredibly terrible that signing was, but then I realized I actually meant to write about today's events. So check back in later this week for a pair of posts detailing my thoughts on the bench signings and the minor pen shake-up.

Because today, today we celebrate. I just got an email from a Cubs fan buddy who said, and I quote, "Congratulations on acquiring the worst player in baseball."

My response - actually my response was like 10 pages, most of which I'll repeat in this post, but this was the grand finale - "I am not exaggerating when I say that to me the Sox just made the single best move this off-season that I ever could have hoped for. No other realistic transaction would have helped their team like the one they just pulled off. Nothing."


So why do we have such differing opinions of this player? While my buddy is a Cubs fan and thus inherently less schooled in true baseball wisdom, he actually does know a good deal about the game and has educated me in a number of areas and with a number of insightful theories (some of which I'm sure I'll share here).

So what was his beef? First and foremost, his view was absolutely skewed by being a Cubs fan. For some reason, Cubs fans HATE Pierre. In their minds they acquired one of the best players in the game and ended up with a career-worst year that tanked their clubs hopes that year.

In reality? Pierre had the SAME year with the Cubs that he's had every season since 2001. As I posted last time, this guy is one of the most remarkably consistent ballplayers of his generation:

• For the past two seasons, Pierre has played part-time, so let's combine and reduce those into one 650 AB year and then look at what he's done since becoming a regular in 2001:

2008-2009 - 650 ABs, .295 avg, 192 hits, 86 R, 60 SB
2007 - 668 AB, .293 avg, 196 hits, 96 R, 64 SB
2006 - 699 AB, .292 avg, 204 hits, 87 R, 58 SB
2005 - 656 AB, .276 avg, 181 hits, 96 R, 57 SB
2004 - 678 AB, .326 avg, 221 hits, 100 R, 45 SB
2003 - 668 AB, .305 avg, 204 hits, 100 R, 65 SB
2002 - 592 AB, .287 avg, 170 hits, 90 R, 47 SB
2001 - 617 AB, .327 avg, 202 hits, 108 R, 46 SB

Can you even pick out the year he was with the Cubs? Is there any stretch that he went from being incredible awesome to bad? Nope - some numbers jump around, but at the end of the day, he gives 650+ ABs, around 200 hits, 95 runs, and 50 SBs. There isn't a season in there where he's significantly deviated from that expectation. Not one.

The simple fact is that the Cubs had high hopes in 2006, as they do every year, but they were dashed by Marshall, Marmol, Rusch, Guzman, Mateo, Prior, Walrong, Kuk Ryu, and Williams combining for 80(!) starts, despite EVERY ONE of them posting an ERA over 5.32!

How is that Pierre's fault? Even the Cubs offensive troubles weren't Pierre's fault - DLee got hurt, ARam and Jacque Jones had poor starts, and Ronny Cedeno had 572 plate appearances.

I tell you all of this because as Sox fans, you're surely surrounded by Cubs fans, and those Cubs fans will inevitably crap on this move. Ignore them - their opinions are uneducated and baseless. But as a Sox fan, you should already know this.


Having said all that, my buddy did bring up a couple of gripes about Pierre that even the most unbiased of observers will mention when commenting on this move. In fact, what he said will be the stock complaints you will hear from everyone - Cubs fans, local commentators, and national opinion makers. Heck, even your fellow Sox fans will bring these up, so I'll quote him and then discuss the virtues of these various concerns:

"Nothing like a leadoff hitter who can't get on base, hit for any power whatsoever, and has a weak throwing arm all while being overpaid."

Taken one at a time:

1. Pierre can't get on base.

OK, this is based in truth. You'll notice in my listing of his year-by-year numbers I left out OBA, which is a key stat for any hitter, but especially for a lead-off hitter. Yeah, that was on purpose. Pierre's OBAs just aren't that good.

But they also aren't terrible. Yes he's had a bunch of seasons in the .320-.330 range, which is mildly low for a leadoff guy. But he's also had a few in the .360-.370 range, which is outstanding. Over the course of his career? .348. Dude, that is absolutely solid for a leadoff hitter. No, it's not amazing, but if he gets on at a .348 clip this season, that will NOT be a weakness. And that's very possible - he left a pitcher friendly park in LA for the Cell, and yet still is coming off a .365 OBA in 425 plate appearance season.

One final note - you never hear anyone complain about Ichiro's inability to walk. Here's a guy who only walks 6 out of every 100 plate appearances. Yet he's absolutely 100% rightfully known as one of the best lead-off hitters of all time. Pierre walks 5.5 times out of every 100 plate appearances, so why does he get so much more crap for it? Sure, Ichiro is a career .333 hitter, but Pierre's a career .301 hitter. Does that difference make Ichiro a living legend and yet Pierre a piece of garbage?

I think the more accurate assessment is Ichiro is one of the best lead-off hitters ever, while Pierre is simply one of the top 10 lead-off hitters of his generation. Given that Pierre hasn't lost a step, I'm not going to let a skewed view of Pierre's walk rate take away from all he's accomplished.

2. Pierre doesn't hit for any power.

Combine this with #1 and you start to wonder, what does this guy do? Let's just say that Pierre does resort back to the .326-.331 OBA range he put up every season from 05-08. Combined with his guaranteed lack of any power (he's never hit more than 3 HRs), will this prove the naysayers right about how little he does for your club?

Nope. First off, because everything is relative. Of course I wish the Sox had invented a time machine and gone back to acquire 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, but the reality is that the good contact, good OBA, great speed, decent power lead-off hitter is the single hardest thing in all of baseball to find.

Ace pitchers? There's a handful of them every season, it's always changing, and they can be had in free agency or for a boatload of prospects. Big boppers? The most over-saturated keystone commodity out there, given that you really only need two big bats to win the title. Catchers, Middle Infielders, Centerfielders? All key pieces to a championship team, but you can survive with a great defensive role player type.

But a top notch lead-off hitter? Those are SO rare and even harder to get ahold of. How many leadoff hitters steal 40+ bases, hit over .290, get on base at a .375 clip, can jack 15+ HRs, know how to bunt, are consistent producers who avoid prolonged slumps, and get the fine art of using base-running to change the game?

The simple reality is that those guys don't exist, and the ones who come closest are nearly impossible to get (check out the asking price for Carl Crawford, or talk to Indians or Mariners about Sizemore or Ichiro). So ANY leadoff you're going to acquire is going to be missing something. The question is how much will he be missing and how important are those pieces.

With Pierre, you're not getting any power. Personally - I don't care. A lead-off hitter's job is to consistently spark the rest of the offense. Power is not even remotely required to do that, so don't waste a second worrying about Juan's lack of it.

And as I said, a .325-.330 OBA is a very distinct possibility. And that hurts - you definitely want your lead-off hitter getting on base in front of your big hitters. But .325-.330 is not the end of the world. Most speedy lead-off hitters are in the .325-.350 range anyway, so you're not losing much versus all the teams you're trying to beat.

More importantly though, if you scroll down the rest of that prototypical leadoff hitter checklist (i.e. a description of Rickey), then you'll start to see why I love Juan Pierre.

• Consistency - check.

This is the most-underrated attribute of a lead-off hitter, one that none of the "experts," including the stat freaks, ever mention. But if you've ever regularly watched baseball (I mean one team, day in, day out, for a whole season), you know that your offense often goes as your lead-off hitter goes. We've seen it plenty with the Sox - remember the Kenny Lofton year, when he sparked us for the first month and raised everyone's hopes? Then he went stone cold and so did the team.

The number two hitter was no longer just trying to take some pitches and move him over, often times sneaking singles through holes created in the infield. The number three hitter was no longer looking just to drive the ball and bring a guy in from third, but instead trying to carry the team every time up. And the big boppers were finding that their three run-homers and two-run doubles were solo shots and harmless bases empty, two-out doubles.

The Sox went through the same thing with Ray Durham's streaks and with Pods' injuries. When those guys weren't going, it didn't matter that a string of big hitters were waiting behind, the Sox offense just couldn't get regular runs without something happening at the top.

If there's anything that Pierre brings to the table, it's consistency. As I showed, every year he basically puts up the same numbers. And it's more than just yearly consistency - the guy is consistent month-to-month. I just went through all his splits since 2004 and rarely does he ever hit below .260 or .270 in a month.

But equally as important to being consistent is being healthy. And Pierre is ALWAYS healthy. Check those yearly numbers again - do you see how many ABs he's getting? Before becoming a part-timer in LA, Pierre hadn't missed a SINGLE GAME in five straight seasons. Only a glut of outfielders in LA has been able to keep this guy off the field.

The end result - a guy who regular clocks in at over 200 hits. Wanna know how many times the Sox have pulled off that feat since 1936? Twice - Nellie Fox in 1954 and Albert Belle in 1998. Juan Pierre has done it four times this decade. Throw in his 30-40 walks a year and you see why he's able to consistently score over 95 runs (5 times this decade). Since Ray Durham finished off a long stretch of 100+ run seasons in 2001, Iguchi (in 2006) is the only other top of the order hitter the Sox have had break that barrier.

The simple fact is that Pierre comes to play every day and every day finds a way to help his offense. And if you get caught up on his low walk total you're gonna miss the consistently high rate of hits and runs he's recording, both of which make him a plus lead-off man.

• Speed - check.
  

There are guys who can steal some bases and then there are guys like Juan Pierre. As a full-timer, he's never failed to steal 45 bases. His last season as a regular - 2007 - he stole 64 bases. Over the past two years he stole 70 bases, despite getting just over a season's worth of playing time. This is one of those guys I salivate over - someone who's such a threat to steal that he effects how the pitcher handles the #8, #9, #2, #3, and #4 hitters. That means throughout the game, the pitcher is spending about half the at-bats worried about JP's legs.

That's why the statheads are wrong about the stolen base - because it does more than just advance you one base. It changes the whole make-up of the game. And Pierre even does it at a highly efficient rate, being successful at about a 75% clip. Even the statheads start to cede that the SB is valuable when you're that good at it.

• Knows the art of leading off - check.

As I've just discussed, Pierre is more than just a guy with some speed and he's more than just a freak track star. Pierre knows how to steal bases in large quantities, knows how to do so at a great success rate, and knows how to turn those skills into a disruptive force for the opposing team and a facilitating force for his own.

But it's more than that - Pierre also knows how to do countless other little things. He's renowned for getting to the park early and rolling balls down the lines to gauge how bunts will play. Being able to bunt is HUGE in terms of keeping consistent, especially when you're not a big walks guy. Tough pitcher, cold weather, bit of a slump? All perfect times to lay a bunt or two down and cheat your way on base. Plus, Pierre won't always be in a leading off situation. He'll come up with no outs and a guy on first or second, and then that bunting skill becomes a way to keep the offense grooving along.

Pierre also makes incredible contact - despite logging around 750 plate appearances in a number of seasons, he's never once had more than 52 Ks and most often is in the 35-45 range. With that kind of speed, you want to be putting the ball in play. Something that never is figured into the stats - how many times does Pierre make contact and force an error from an infielder trying to hurry a throw to catch the speedster?

Equally important, again, often times Pierre will be hitting with guys on base and you're gonna want him making contact and moving them along. Despite the serious set-backs of Teahen and Andruw Jones, the Sox have actually made good progress moving away from strike-out types and getting more contact-prone hitters. Pierre will make the Sox even better in that regard.

In all, yes, Pierre is not the absolute perfect lead-off hitter. But given what's available out there and given all that he does, Pierre is a hell of a find. He'll do so much to make this offense go, and maybe most importantly, he'll keep Ozzie thinking smallball. Pierre will be exciting and effective, and with any support around him, should be a key to sparking a very solid offense this year.

3. Pierre has a weak throwing arm.

OK, again this is true. But again, it's not that big of a deal. Pierre is a decent outfielder, but not great, and that terrible arm is a major reason. However, the Sox have Rios to play center and seem content with moving Quentin over to right. I'm hoping that's what they do - while Quentin probably won't be great in right, he'll be serviceable. And supposedly Rios is a much better centerfielder - his natural spot - than rightfielder.

Most certainly, Pierre is far better off in left than center. Much like Pods, putting him in left can turn him from a liability to an asset. His arm will be better hidden and his fielding and range will both be pluses for a traditionally weak outfield spot. I can't say I know a ton about his defense, but anyone who's played as much centerfield on as many good teams as he has should be a decent defender. I know he's got speed and I know he takes great pride in knowing the outfield dimensions and positioning himself correctly. Alongside Rios and Quentin, I think we've got a pretty athletic and capable outfield defensively.

4. Pierre is overpaid.

This is the most impressive part of the deal - the Sox are paying Pierre a pittance to play for them the next two seasons. Just $3M this year and $5M next. Remember, Chone Figgins, a very similar offensive player with injury concerns, just got $9M per for four years. Pierre himself originally was signed for $45M over five. Kenny Lofton got regular deals until he was 40, because teams always need guys who can lead-off.

But for some reason, as soon as Pierre signed that deal he was hammered as being overpaid. Despite the fact that supply and demand made his deal perfectly reasonable, given how important lead-off hitters are and how few can actually do the job with any regular success. He's done nothing but contribute in LA, even when losing his fulltime job - first to the signing of Andrew Jones, then to the Manny trade.

Most guys would have sulked after signing a big deal, doing exactly what he always had, and then being forced to the bench. Not Pierre - he turned himself into a valuable super-sub, sparking the Dodgers when they needed it in both 2008 and 2009 (the latter, when Manny was lost to a 50-game steroid suspension). To me that's one more asset on the checklist - being a great team player. Especially with franchise kids around, it's gonna be great to see such a selfless sort like Pierre play the game.

So even up near the $9M per he's owed each of the next two seasons, I still would have liked this deal for the Sox. But at $4M per - that is an absolute steal. With our payroll up against it, somehow Kenny found us the best lead-off man on the market and did so without forcing us to deal a significant piece to cut salary elsewhere.

Relating back to the quote that opened this post, this move today has me happier about the Sox than I ever thought I'd be this off-season, given the Getz-Teahen fiasco and my soon to be propounded on Druw Jones botch up. Pierre changes the outlook of things so much, especially when acquired at such a cheap salary hit. I've got every faith he'll produce - now my concerns are just whether Ozzie will be inspired by his presence and the more athletic lineup to finally get back to a more dynamic approach. The HRs will come - but that doesn't mean you can't run, bunt, steal, and so on. The best team is the one that can beat you in both ways. The Sox could be that team this year, if Ozzie will just let them.