Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999!

-

In my uber-excited post about Juan Pierre, one of my many justifications for ebullience was that Kenny Williams can't just invent a time machine and go back and get a 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, so Pierre was as good as we could have hoped for the 2010 Sox.

But what if he can? I know, it sounds crazy, but bear with me here.

OK, don't bear with me - I'm really just using this line of nonsense to mock Kenny. Because his belief that he can actually go back through time is the only justification I can see for the signings of Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones, even in limited bench roles.

With a four-man bench (the standard in the Ozzie-Kenny era) and the way Ozzie likes to sit his regulars, these bench guys get a good 300+ ABs. And given that Kenny can't go back through time to 1999, or hell even 2006, the Sox are in for a world of hurt every single one of those times these two come to the plate.

Have you looked at the numbers? In 2006, Andruw Jones was still a force, winning yet another Gold Glove while jacking 41 dongs (after 51 the year previous) and driving in 129 (after a 128-RBI campaign). Since then? He's hit .222, .158, and .214.

Similarly, in 2006, Omar Vizquel hit .295, scored 88 runs, got on base at a .361 clip, stole 24 bases, and was still regarded as one of the best defensive SS in baseball. Since? .247, .222, and then a "resurgent" .266 last year.

These players are shells of what they once were and time just keeps on eroding their skills. Can we really expect a season's worth of solid production, even in a spot role, from these two?

The answer is an iffy "sort of" and a couldn't-be-more-convinced "no." Vizquel will be 43 in April and I definitely don't expect him to match the .260 average he had in Texas, where everyone hits. Instead, I'm expecting him to be back around the .220-.240 range he showed in his last two seasons in SF.

He's no longer a Gold Glove caliber defender, with age robbing him of the range and athleticism that made him one of the best of all time. Vizquel also isn't a big speed threat any more, again due to his advancing age. He's never had much for power or been a great OBA guy (tho he's not terrible at drawing walks). So what will the quadragenarian the give the Sox for the $1.4M he's guaranteed?

Actually, despite the tenor of the post until now, I believe he should give the Sox some decent intangibles and some solid role-playing skills. While he's no longer the game's premier defensive SS, he's still a very solid defender, not making a single error in 62 games. And that was in at least 16 games each at 2B, 3B, and SS. Defensively, Vizquel is a very capable utility infielder.

Vizquel also can still do the little things with his bat. He's never been one to strike out a lot, he can get some occasional walks, and most important to small-ball evangelists like myself, he's one of the games best bunters. Something I noticed in the Pierre press release was that Vizquel was the guy listed as the second active career leader in things like bunt hits, infield hits, and sacrifices.

Some of that is cause he's been around forever (one of only a handful of players still active to have 75+ hits in the 80s), but it's more because Vizquel has long been a guy who does well all the little things the game demands.

So yeah, Vizquel will most likely have a low average and get ripped by the casual fan who expects too much, but the real students of the Sox will notice the little things he does next year to help the team win. Hitting behind runners, bunting people over, taking an extra base on a single, etc etc. And they'll appreciate how he allows Ozzie to sit his infielders without any loss of defense (in fact, Vizquel might be a step up from all three... which just hit me and now has me scared for 2010... damn... I'm going to suppress that notion for a while).

But most of all, at least I hope, the good fans among us will appreciate how we're seeing a new Alexei next year - one fulfilling the mountain of promise he's got, one who no longer dazzles us one night and frustrates the next, but instead puts together a steady campaign - offensively and defensively - that lands him rightfully in talks about the best all-around infielders in baseball.

Alexei has a chance to be either a cornerstone on a very successful batch of Sox ballclubs, or to be a major reason for a string of disappointing seasons. He's really that volatile and that crucial. His defense is SUCH an issue, the way he mentally checks out on so many plays. Given the constant action that a shortstop sees, Alexei's brain lapses were killer last season.

But if put in the right mental state, Alexei could be a real force. He's got all the tools and he's shown for stretches that he can capitalize on those tools to impress both in the field and the batter's box. It's a bit hopeful to assume Vizquel can cure all that ails him, but it's also not outside the realm of reason. Plenty of players "figure it out" and having one of the game's best shortstops ever looking out for you is certainly one way to do it.

So, I'm not in love with how weak Vizquel's production will be, given that he'll surely get a ton of at-bats. And at his age, you have no idea if he'll just lose it completely. But I'm gonna bet that he does enough of those little things I love so much and has enough of a positive effect on Alexei (and Beckham, actually), that Kenny, even w/o a time machine, will be right on this one.


As for Druw Jones? I was iffy at first and tried to talk myself into it being no-risk, with only $1M guaranteed.

But after looking into it, the guy just can't field and just can't hit. I know he used to be the gold standard in center, but that when he wasn't fat, out-of-shape, and disinterested. Last year the Rangers mainly DHd him, only using him in the OF 17 times, and NEVER in center.

I'm gonna repeat that - don't fool yourself into thinking Andruw Jones has to at least be serviceable in center. He's not - he's fallen off completely and become a fielding liability. There's no other explanation for how the Rangers used him defensively last year except that.

And despite playing in Texas, where even the biggest journeyman scrubs have great offensive seasons (Gary Matthews or Milton Bradley, anyone?), Druw hit a whopping .214 with 72 Ks in only 281 ABs! But it gets worse - that .214 was bloated by a red hot April, where he hit .344 and respectable May, where he hit .245. After that? .170 in June, .209 in July, .167 in August, and .179 in September.

Are you freakin kidding me? We're going to give this guy at-bats? A guy who's "best" month of the final four was .209? Two. Oh. Nine. Didn't we see this movie last year, when it was called Dwayne Wise? Don't we know how terribly it ended? And at least he could field and run! I mean those are key skills and Wise clearly had them. Druw can't do either. He's here solely to hit. And he can't do that!!

With the lefty Kotsay already taking the majority of the corner OF ABs, Druw's role will be against lefties. But guess what - Jones hit a whopping .218 against lefties last year, with a mere .395 slugging percentage! Of his 17 HRs, only 4 came against southpaws (despite 45% of his plate appearance coming against them)! This was no great abberation either - over the course of his career, Druw hasn't really hit lefties any better than righties.

So what in the hell do the Sox see here? What they need in that bench spot is a righty who can play center well and give them speed. He doesn't have to hit (we've got Kotsay for that), just field well, be right-handed, and be able to run. Those guys grow on trees. I'm sure Brian Anderson is there for the taking. Joey Gathright. And a million other failed athletic CFs.

As it is, if we're carrying Druw on the roster, we either have to go to a 5th bench player and find some journeyman CF, or we're going to have to move Pierre over to center anytime Rios sits, or we're going to have to deal with yet another garbage CF incapable of playing the spot (remember Rob Mackowiak or the failed Griff Jr. experiment?).

It's possible he'll "turn it around" but what evidence is there of that? Jones has been a bum for three years, under three different coaches (two of them Hall of Famers - Cox and Torre), in three different places. So what possible faith do I have that this year on the Southside will be different?


My hope? At $1M, the Sox are willing to eat his contract, either before breakin Spring Training or after a horrendous April, with minimal damage to the club's chance in 2010. As I said, the spot he's filling is not particularly important. Kotsay will get the majority of the corner OF at-bats as the lefty, so they just need to find a guy who can play against the occasional lefty (and as a buddy of mine pointed out, the AL Central is woefully lacking them outside of Chicago), field his position, and maybe give them some speed off the bench. Shouldn't be too hard to find one of those once Druw's career is officially deemed over (and when he washes out with the Sox, it will be).

The only upside of the Jones signing? It's a clear indication that the Sox aren't done. They can pretend that Kotsay/Jones and a juggling of the starters will fill the DH role this year, but that's a load of crap. Kenny is a bright man and he saw what happened last year, as Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu were signed for relative peanuts shortly before the start of the season because no market ever developed for their services.

Since then, the economy has only gotten worse and teams have only felt the impacts of such for a longer time. Money will be even tighter this off-season and possibly even more high quality free agents will be available for a 1 year, $5M deal or the like. Kenny knows this is a distinct possibility and like always, is lying in the weeds waiting to add a player no one thought he'd be able to.

One such guy I'm salivating over? Johnny Damon. Why not? The Yanks seemed to have moved on and how many teams out there want to spend big money on a 36-year old leadoff guy who doesn't really run anymore, can't play well in the field, and will miss time throughout the year? Yet Damon's numbers remain strong and he still considers himself a high-priced guy, meaning he might be very late to accept the new realities of the free agent market.

Sounds a lot like Abreu (another aging Yankee cast-off) last year, doesn't it? Damon might just slip through the cracks, and might just end up on the Southside. He'd fit - Ozzie likes the idea of being able to juggle the OF and DH spots a bit, keeping Quentin healthy, keeping Rios and Pierre's legs fresh, and allowing Damon to rest his aging body. Damon would ably fill the #2 hole, with the long-proven top of the order skills that have lead teams to titles his whole career.

Wouldn't his .280+ average, 15+ HRs, 15+ steals, and .350+ OBA look good in that #2 slot? Right behind Pierre, the near-perfect lead-off guy for Ozzie? Ahead of Quentin and Paulie, with a back of the order that features dynamic young bats like Alexie, Rios, and Beckham, as well as a solid vet in AJ?

Who knows - Damon could sign tomorrow for $20M for 2. I know nothing about who's interested in him or what the Sox are really looking for. But my guess is that the Sox are just waiting to cheaply fill that DH with the best value guy who gets left behind during the free agent signing period. It'll probably come out of nowhere, be someone the Sox haven't ever been linked to (because the supposed asking price was out of reach), and happen very late in the off-season.

I just hope it's someone like Damon who fills a real need, and not just some washed up slugger with huge holes in his swing that will clog up the Sox order. Aside from Thome, who showed himself amazingly capable of driving in runs (his average with runners in scoring position and with runners on-base were ALWAYS well higher than his normal such numbers), I'm not interested in some cheesy DH bat-for hire. I want someone who's a bit more dynamic, like an Abreu or a Damon.

Let's hope the fates again smile on the Sox this off-season. And that Druw Jones gets cut before we're forced to watch him pretend to care about hitting.

No comments:

Post a Comment