Clutch or Not?

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Once again I've got to thank my brother Doug for a great idea for a post. Here is part of the email he sent me last week:

• A few weeks back on your blog, you sung the praises of AJ. Everyone seems to love AJ, and I think some of the points you made about him are correct. He does play heads-up baseball. However, I have noticed that AJ is not much of a clutch hitter. Despite hitting near the middle of the order (5, 6, or 7), his RBI totals are generally pretty lackluster. This year, that is especially true. I was at Tuesday night's game when he came up with the bases loaded and two outs and grounded weakly back to the pitcher. Today, he came up in the same situation and grounded out. So I looked at his stats.
  His batting average is .287. However, despite hitting in the middle of the order, he only has 12 RBI in 175 AB. Compare that to Josh Fields, who has 187 AB but has somehow managed to knock in 21 runs despite hitting 8th or 9th and hitting only .235.
  Further investigation revealed that AJ is hitting .182 with runners in scoring position. That is horrible. When your RISP average is 100 points lower than your overall average, that is called being un-clutch, and that is the epitome of what is wrong with the White Sox this year.

That got me thinking, as I've noticed that the Sox get their hits and walks every game, but it never turns into as many runs as it should. So far I've been harping on their lack of small ball, which is a significant factor. There have been repeated instances where either Ozzie has not tried to move a runner up or a Sox hitter was incapable of doing so, with the result being that a run wasn't manufactured or a base hit simply moved a runner over rather than bringing him in.

However, Doug does bring up another factor - that the core Sox hitters are not delivering when it matters. So I decided to pull all of the numbers and really see who of the Sox mainstays - Konerko, Dye, Thome, and AJ - has been clutch and who hasn't.


First, AJ. Doug's right - his Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) numbers aren't good. Since coming to the Sox in 2005, not once has his RISP average been better than his overall average. In fact, three of the last four seasons it's been about 20 points below his normal batting average, and this year it's a whopping 100 points off (a dreadful .205). That's a pretty significant and telling track record of "clutch" futility.

This doesn't actually change my valuation of AJ much. I don't expect much for run production out of my catcher anyway and he's still a tough at-bat, better offensively than most catchers, and great at handling the staff and bringing a bit of competitive edgy play.

However, this definitely bolsters my belief that AJ should be batting #2 in the lineup. It's not a run-producing slot, it's a "make contact, move the runner, and be a tough out" spot. All of those things AJ describe AJ's strengths. Most important, those are things that the rest of the lineup is incapable of.

While Alexei has hit well second in the lineup, he's being asked to do things that are beyond him while keeping him from doing the things he really thrives at. We've all watched as he struggled to bunt or move guys over. Conversely, Alexei has been unreal at driving in runners - as a rookie he hit .380 with RISP (compared to a .290 average) and this year he's hitting .281 with RISP (to his .252 average).

That tells me Alexei should be hitting 6th, giving legit protection behind the big banger trio of Thome, Dye, and Konerko. With CQ gone, AJ not a run producer, and no other Sox hitter looking like a consistent threat, Alexei needs to be moved to the six slot in a hurry, with AJ settling back into the #2 spot.


Now let's look at the boppers, starting with the worst "clutch" performer, Dye. My brother, Mom, and I all loved to rip on this guy in 2005, when he hit 31 HRs and drove in only 86 RBI from the #5 slot, and seemed to lead the league in solo shots when a game was out of reach. JD made us all eat a bit of crow by getting it done in the post-season, even winning the World Series MVP (tho with some of the least impressive offensive numbers in the history of the award).

Like AJ, Dye's RISP average has been between 15 and 30 points below his overall average in three of the last four seasons, and has been terrible this year - a paltry .220 (compared to his .274 average on the season). I've been wondering how JD has hit so well (he was up to .288 with 15 HRs and an OPS over .900 - the mark of a really good hitter - just a week ago), and yet has so few RBI (only 39). Well, a .220 batting average with RISP will do that.

I do like JD, I do think he's under-appreciated, but I think that one of the reasons for that lack of appreciation is that, outside of 2006, he's failed to come through when it matters most, and that has depressed his RBI total. Without the regular 100 RBI seasons on his resume, Dye is viewed as a second teir player. And know what - on some level they are right. He does more than most give him credit for, but for a guy making $10M+ in this market, hitting 30+ HRs in the middle of a solid lineup in a friendly park, JD is failing by not driving in 100 runs every year.

With CQ out, the Sox need JD to turn that around. They need him to be hitting .280+ with RISP, and getting a lot of his extra base hits in those circumstances. He doesn't have to drive in 120, but JD definitely needs to drive in 100. It's not a must for success, but without that type of production, the Sox have a much tougher road to hoe.

Once the Sox return to AL parks, I'd move JD out of the #3 or #4 hole. I think he's probably best in the #5 slot, without as much pressure to drive guys in, but still able to protect the more legit top of the order producers. And longterm, I'm not bringing JD back. Sure you take a risk that whomever you replace him with won't be as healthy, as reliable, and as quietly solid. But you also are giving yourself the upside of a guy who can really produce.

JD has had five seasons in Chicago, and has only really produced in one of them. He's never failed to at least be solid, but he hasn't been that big banger you'd like. I'd much rather see the Sox go with an Abreu, who brings a more dynamic game, or even a Dunn, who scores and drives in runs with a scary regularity, or someone like Mags used to be - great average, a tick less power, but much more consistent bat.

Heck, what the Sox really need to do is move Carlos to RF, find a great defensive CF (I still think BA is that guy, despite his mediocre bat, but if not, there are other options out there), and then use LF for a true leadoff guy (Juan Pierre, Pods if he can keep this up, or something similar). I think the Sox raise the bar impossibly high when they try to find a good defensive CF who can also lead off. Be more strategic and break that task into manageable parts.

Either way, I hope Dye finishes the year strong on another Sox playoff team, but I think the wise move is to let him move on and give yourself a higher ceiling in that corner OF and payroll slot.


Now we move on to Paulie, who at .294 is hitting the best of any of the Sox three sluggers this year. And that success has continued with RISP, where he's throwing up a commanding .375 average. Paulie has seen a real pullback in his power, as he's belted 15 doubles but only hit 8 HRs this year. Despite that and the handicap of hitting 5th or 6th, Paulie still leads the team with 41 RBI.

Can we expect that continue? Well, he probably won't hit .375 with RISP all season, but it's reasonable to think he'll keep his RISP average around his normal average. In 2005, Paulie was actually pretty poor with RISP, but made up for it by being a beast in 2006. In 2007 and 2008, as he struggled at the plate, he didn't struggle any more with RISP - his normal average and RISP one were about the same.

So I'd say Ozzie can confidently hit Paulie in the middle of the order and enjoy the results. I've said before I'm fine with the current lack of power, as long as he's hitting consistently. If Paulie hits .300 all year with 40 doubles and 25 HRs (his current pace) out of the #3 or #4 slot, the Sox will be in good shape. And moving forward, I think the Sox can feel solid keeping this type of hitter and player in the mix, assuming he doesn't return to 07-08 form.


And now, the best for last. I have to admit that I was real down on Thome last year. And I expected even less of him this year. But one thing I learned and keep trying to tell myself is that running a baseball team isn't always as simple as it seems from the comfort of my couch or PC. There is a lot going on underneath the surface that has a real impact on the game and often times fans gloss right over these crucial aspects.

Jim Thome is the perfect example. On the surface he seems like a guy who nowadays hits for a mediocre average, still has power and walks, and strikes out too much. You look at the production and think it's helpful, but not terribly crucial. You figure the low average, big Ks, and lack of speed offset a lot of the big homers and useful walks.

But what we don't always respect as fans is a base level of ability that isn't always obvious in the numbers. How often do we see one player batting well and one batting poorly, and wonder why the bad hitter is getting so much more playing time? Or why a struggling closer or reliever is allowed to keep their job, or iffy starter kept in the rotation?

It's because a player's numbers don't always tell the whole story. That guy who's batting well right now? Maybe he's doing it only against righties he can handle because his manager knows that's how best to use him. That guy who's hitting poorly? Maybe his mere presence in the lineup is forcing pitchers to work harder, throw more pitches, and reveal their best stuff sooner. That shaky reliever? He's shown himself capable of handling the late inning pressures, even if it isn't always pretty, whereas the other options could wilt under the intensity.

I bring all of this up because it's something most of us armchair managers and GMs fail at consistently, and Jim Thome is a perfect example. While I knew Thome was a solid producer, I also knew his game had flaws, and those flaws would become greater with each passing year. Big sluggers like that often fall of quickly, so I've been leery of Thome losing all ability to contribute overnight.

However, a look at Thome's RISP numbers since coming over to the Sox has put my mind at ease. .336, .313, .304, .293. That's 2006, 07, 08, and this year's RISP averages. You could argue that he's trending down, but I think that's missing the point. The guy is a consistent .300 hitter when it matters most - I'll take that all day long. And when you look at his averages with runners on base (.329, .322, .292, .319), you realize he might not really be trending down to harshly.

Instead, focus on the fact that Thome is not a guy who hits for a great average - he's probably hit about .270 during his time with the Sox, and never once above .290. Yet EVERY single season the guy is hitting 40 to 50 points higher with runners in scoring position and with runners on base than he is overall.

The simple fact is that even as a .240 hitter, Jim Thome is a better than average run producer. He has skills and talent that few hitters in the history of baseball do, and even as they erode, Thome remains capable of doing something that not many guys can - hit with consistency when it matters most.

I rip on Ozzie a lot, especially as the Sox have struggled, but I'll give him this - he's stuck by Thome consistently, and he's been absolutely right to do so. The guy should be hitting 3rd or4th in the lineup every night (if you want your best hitter #3, then I'd put him there, but if you want to break up the righties, I'd sneak him into #4 behind Paulie, in front of Dye). Jim Thome is clearly the best hitter the Sox have with RISP, and for that, we'll all have to respectfully suffer his high K total, his iffy batting average, even his frustrating refusal to work for cheap singles against the shift.

What to do with him next season is a tougher question, because Thome still could fall off at any point. But if he finishes the year like he's started it, I might try to see if I can squeeze one more season out of him. There can't be a big market for a guy like Thome, so one dimensional and clearly on the downside of his career. He seems like the type who'd offer a significant hometown discount, at least at this phase of his career. If he hits .250+ with good RISP numbers in the second half, and stays healthy, I think I try to keep Thome in a Sox uni one more year.

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