Sox v. Tigers - Gonna Be A Doozy

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First, the bad news - the Tigers are for real. I wish it were otherwise, but they are not going to roll over and play dead so the Sox can limp to another division title. Nope, for the 2009 Sox to be the first in franchise history to put up back-to-back postseason births (yep, in over 100 years, the Sox have never had back-to-back playoff appearances), they're gonna have to earn it.

Early in the season, it's often hard to tell the contenders from the pretenders. A favorable schedule, a hot hitter or two, some lucky breaks, or just a nice run of health can make a team look a whole lot better than they are. So I try to look past record, ignore run differentials, and pay only minor attention to how a team is hitting.

Instead, I focus on two things - the ability to win on the road and the ability to keep the other team from scoring runs. In general, pitching and defense are always what dictates a good team, especially over a 162-game schedule. It tends to be more consistent than hitting and to really be the mark of a good team.

But I also like to see which teams are having success on the road, away not only from friendly crowds, but also a ballpark built for that specific team. To me if you can consistently win in a variety to venues against teams in the comfort of their own parks, you're a legit contender.

So as we pass the 50-game mark, who's getting it done in those categories? Unfortunately for the Sox, in the AL the answer is the Detroit Tigers. Their 13-14 road record is actually pretty good, as anything around .500 is respectable. Even more impressive is the volume - the 13 away wins is second in the AL. That's 13 Ws that can't be taken away from the Tigers, 13 closer to the 40 or so you'd like to get on the road over the course of the year.

But most impressive - at 4.31 runs allowed per game, the Tigers are easily pacing the American League in pitching and defense. Sure, it helps that they've got a spacious park, but the numbers reflect that the Tigers seem to be built right this season. They've improved their defense with Adam Everett at short and Inge at 3rd, and the pitching has looked very good.

Verlander is back to being an Ace, Edwin Jackson seems to be putting it all together, and Porcello is living up to the hype, despite being all of 20 years old. Behind them, Seay and Zumaya have been doing a great job setting up Rodney, who's 10 for 10 in save opportunities.

All told, this makes the Tigers a rare AL team to look good both on the road and in pitching and defense. Texas, especially given their home park, also have done well in both categories. Other than that, no other AL team can currently point to a good Runs Against number and a road record right around .500.

Yep, the Tigers are looking very for real, which means our ChiSox are going to have to win this with some great play of their own. And now the good news - lately, that's exactly what the Sox have done. The pitching and defense have been amazing, to the tune of the 4th best runs allowed in the AL (a hair off of 3rd). With Contreras having been replaced by Richard and BA getting regular time in CF, those numbers should only get better.

On the road, the Sox have been brutal until this recent 5-1 road trip through LA and KC. But now their 12 away wins are good for third in the AL and their 12-15 road record is 5th best in the Junior Circuit. Having already played 27 games on the road to only 23 at home also bodes well for future success.

Of course, before we get to the Tigers, the Sox first need to take care of bottom feeders Oakland and Cleveland over this next week, and last night's game was a great start. Floyd settled down and looked great after an early mistake, and the offense kept fighting until they had broken through the underrated A's pitching staff. Given all the momentum of their last home stand and successful road trip, coming back into town and getting a big W sets the Sox up nicely.

But after that, the five game set against the Tigers next week is looming large. Possibly working in the Sox favor, besides the home field setting - Contreras throwing in the double header. The Tigers don't appear to be very deep in their rotation, which means they're gonna have a hard time finding a viable extra starter for the Monday twin bill. On the flip side, the Sox can roll out a seemingly refocused Contreras, who's been owning hitters down at AAA Charlotte. If Jose is just respectable, the difference between a vet and a green minor leaguer taking a start in such a big series is significant.

Given how the Sox are playing, this 5-game set couldn't come at a better time. If the Sox do take care of business with the A's and Tribe, they'll be on fire as well as catching the Tigers after a pair of tough series against the BoSox and Halos. Hopefully by next Monday the Sox deficit in the division is down to two or 3 games, with the 5-game set giving them an opportunity to get back into first.