Clutch or Not?

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Once again I've got to thank my brother Doug for a great idea for a post. Here is part of the email he sent me last week:

• A few weeks back on your blog, you sung the praises of AJ. Everyone seems to love AJ, and I think some of the points you made about him are correct. He does play heads-up baseball. However, I have noticed that AJ is not much of a clutch hitter. Despite hitting near the middle of the order (5, 6, or 7), his RBI totals are generally pretty lackluster. This year, that is especially true. I was at Tuesday night's game when he came up with the bases loaded and two outs and grounded weakly back to the pitcher. Today, he came up in the same situation and grounded out. So I looked at his stats.
  His batting average is .287. However, despite hitting in the middle of the order, he only has 12 RBI in 175 AB. Compare that to Josh Fields, who has 187 AB but has somehow managed to knock in 21 runs despite hitting 8th or 9th and hitting only .235.
  Further investigation revealed that AJ is hitting .182 with runners in scoring position. That is horrible. When your RISP average is 100 points lower than your overall average, that is called being un-clutch, and that is the epitome of what is wrong with the White Sox this year.

That got me thinking, as I've noticed that the Sox get their hits and walks every game, but it never turns into as many runs as it should. So far I've been harping on their lack of small ball, which is a significant factor. There have been repeated instances where either Ozzie has not tried to move a runner up or a Sox hitter was incapable of doing so, with the result being that a run wasn't manufactured or a base hit simply moved a runner over rather than bringing him in.

However, Doug does bring up another factor - that the core Sox hitters are not delivering when it matters. So I decided to pull all of the numbers and really see who of the Sox mainstays - Konerko, Dye, Thome, and AJ - has been clutch and who hasn't.


First, AJ. Doug's right - his Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) numbers aren't good. Since coming to the Sox in 2005, not once has his RISP average been better than his overall average. In fact, three of the last four seasons it's been about 20 points below his normal batting average, and this year it's a whopping 100 points off (a dreadful .205). That's a pretty significant and telling track record of "clutch" futility.

This doesn't actually change my valuation of AJ much. I don't expect much for run production out of my catcher anyway and he's still a tough at-bat, better offensively than most catchers, and great at handling the staff and bringing a bit of competitive edgy play.

However, this definitely bolsters my belief that AJ should be batting #2 in the lineup. It's not a run-producing slot, it's a "make contact, move the runner, and be a tough out" spot. All of those things AJ describe AJ's strengths. Most important, those are things that the rest of the lineup is incapable of.

While Alexei has hit well second in the lineup, he's being asked to do things that are beyond him while keeping him from doing the things he really thrives at. We've all watched as he struggled to bunt or move guys over. Conversely, Alexei has been unreal at driving in runners - as a rookie he hit .380 with RISP (compared to a .290 average) and this year he's hitting .281 with RISP (to his .252 average).

That tells me Alexei should be hitting 6th, giving legit protection behind the big banger trio of Thome, Dye, and Konerko. With CQ gone, AJ not a run producer, and no other Sox hitter looking like a consistent threat, Alexei needs to be moved to the six slot in a hurry, with AJ settling back into the #2 spot.


Now let's look at the boppers, starting with the worst "clutch" performer, Dye. My brother, Mom, and I all loved to rip on this guy in 2005, when he hit 31 HRs and drove in only 86 RBI from the #5 slot, and seemed to lead the league in solo shots when a game was out of reach. JD made us all eat a bit of crow by getting it done in the post-season, even winning the World Series MVP (tho with some of the least impressive offensive numbers in the history of the award).

Like AJ, Dye's RISP average has been between 15 and 30 points below his overall average in three of the last four seasons, and has been terrible this year - a paltry .220 (compared to his .274 average on the season). I've been wondering how JD has hit so well (he was up to .288 with 15 HRs and an OPS over .900 - the mark of a really good hitter - just a week ago), and yet has so few RBI (only 39). Well, a .220 batting average with RISP will do that.

I do like JD, I do think he's under-appreciated, but I think that one of the reasons for that lack of appreciation is that, outside of 2006, he's failed to come through when it matters most, and that has depressed his RBI total. Without the regular 100 RBI seasons on his resume, Dye is viewed as a second teir player. And know what - on some level they are right. He does more than most give him credit for, but for a guy making $10M+ in this market, hitting 30+ HRs in the middle of a solid lineup in a friendly park, JD is failing by not driving in 100 runs every year.

With CQ out, the Sox need JD to turn that around. They need him to be hitting .280+ with RISP, and getting a lot of his extra base hits in those circumstances. He doesn't have to drive in 120, but JD definitely needs to drive in 100. It's not a must for success, but without that type of production, the Sox have a much tougher road to hoe.

Once the Sox return to AL parks, I'd move JD out of the #3 or #4 hole. I think he's probably best in the #5 slot, without as much pressure to drive guys in, but still able to protect the more legit top of the order producers. And longterm, I'm not bringing JD back. Sure you take a risk that whomever you replace him with won't be as healthy, as reliable, and as quietly solid. But you also are giving yourself the upside of a guy who can really produce.

JD has had five seasons in Chicago, and has only really produced in one of them. He's never failed to at least be solid, but he hasn't been that big banger you'd like. I'd much rather see the Sox go with an Abreu, who brings a more dynamic game, or even a Dunn, who scores and drives in runs with a scary regularity, or someone like Mags used to be - great average, a tick less power, but much more consistent bat.

Heck, what the Sox really need to do is move Carlos to RF, find a great defensive CF (I still think BA is that guy, despite his mediocre bat, but if not, there are other options out there), and then use LF for a true leadoff guy (Juan Pierre, Pods if he can keep this up, or something similar). I think the Sox raise the bar impossibly high when they try to find a good defensive CF who can also lead off. Be more strategic and break that task into manageable parts.

Either way, I hope Dye finishes the year strong on another Sox playoff team, but I think the wise move is to let him move on and give yourself a higher ceiling in that corner OF and payroll slot.


Now we move on to Paulie, who at .294 is hitting the best of any of the Sox three sluggers this year. And that success has continued with RISP, where he's throwing up a commanding .375 average. Paulie has seen a real pullback in his power, as he's belted 15 doubles but only hit 8 HRs this year. Despite that and the handicap of hitting 5th or 6th, Paulie still leads the team with 41 RBI.

Can we expect that continue? Well, he probably won't hit .375 with RISP all season, but it's reasonable to think he'll keep his RISP average around his normal average. In 2005, Paulie was actually pretty poor with RISP, but made up for it by being a beast in 2006. In 2007 and 2008, as he struggled at the plate, he didn't struggle any more with RISP - his normal average and RISP one were about the same.

So I'd say Ozzie can confidently hit Paulie in the middle of the order and enjoy the results. I've said before I'm fine with the current lack of power, as long as he's hitting consistently. If Paulie hits .300 all year with 40 doubles and 25 HRs (his current pace) out of the #3 or #4 slot, the Sox will be in good shape. And moving forward, I think the Sox can feel solid keeping this type of hitter and player in the mix, assuming he doesn't return to 07-08 form.


And now, the best for last. I have to admit that I was real down on Thome last year. And I expected even less of him this year. But one thing I learned and keep trying to tell myself is that running a baseball team isn't always as simple as it seems from the comfort of my couch or PC. There is a lot going on underneath the surface that has a real impact on the game and often times fans gloss right over these crucial aspects.

Jim Thome is the perfect example. On the surface he seems like a guy who nowadays hits for a mediocre average, still has power and walks, and strikes out too much. You look at the production and think it's helpful, but not terribly crucial. You figure the low average, big Ks, and lack of speed offset a lot of the big homers and useful walks.

But what we don't always respect as fans is a base level of ability that isn't always obvious in the numbers. How often do we see one player batting well and one batting poorly, and wonder why the bad hitter is getting so much more playing time? Or why a struggling closer or reliever is allowed to keep their job, or iffy starter kept in the rotation?

It's because a player's numbers don't always tell the whole story. That guy who's batting well right now? Maybe he's doing it only against righties he can handle because his manager knows that's how best to use him. That guy who's hitting poorly? Maybe his mere presence in the lineup is forcing pitchers to work harder, throw more pitches, and reveal their best stuff sooner. That shaky reliever? He's shown himself capable of handling the late inning pressures, even if it isn't always pretty, whereas the other options could wilt under the intensity.

I bring all of this up because it's something most of us armchair managers and GMs fail at consistently, and Jim Thome is a perfect example. While I knew Thome was a solid producer, I also knew his game had flaws, and those flaws would become greater with each passing year. Big sluggers like that often fall of quickly, so I've been leery of Thome losing all ability to contribute overnight.

However, a look at Thome's RISP numbers since coming over to the Sox has put my mind at ease. .336, .313, .304, .293. That's 2006, 07, 08, and this year's RISP averages. You could argue that he's trending down, but I think that's missing the point. The guy is a consistent .300 hitter when it matters most - I'll take that all day long. And when you look at his averages with runners on base (.329, .322, .292, .319), you realize he might not really be trending down to harshly.

Instead, focus on the fact that Thome is not a guy who hits for a great average - he's probably hit about .270 during his time with the Sox, and never once above .290. Yet EVERY single season the guy is hitting 40 to 50 points higher with runners in scoring position and with runners on base than he is overall.

The simple fact is that even as a .240 hitter, Jim Thome is a better than average run producer. He has skills and talent that few hitters in the history of baseball do, and even as they erode, Thome remains capable of doing something that not many guys can - hit with consistency when it matters most.

I rip on Ozzie a lot, especially as the Sox have struggled, but I'll give him this - he's stuck by Thome consistently, and he's been absolutely right to do so. The guy should be hitting 3rd or4th in the lineup every night (if you want your best hitter #3, then I'd put him there, but if you want to break up the righties, I'd sneak him into #4 behind Paulie, in front of Dye). Jim Thome is clearly the best hitter the Sox have with RISP, and for that, we'll all have to respectfully suffer his high K total, his iffy batting average, even his frustrating refusal to work for cheap singles against the shift.

What to do with him next season is a tougher question, because Thome still could fall off at any point. But if he finishes the year like he's started it, I might try to see if I can squeeze one more season out of him. There can't be a big market for a guy like Thome, so one dimensional and clearly on the downside of his career. He seems like the type who'd offer a significant hometown discount, at least at this phase of his career. If he hits .250+ with good RISP numbers in the second half, and stays healthy, I think I try to keep Thome in a Sox uni one more year.

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Utter Frustration Mixed With a Hint of Optimism

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Two straight heartbreaking losses did more than serve notice that the Sox might be an also ran very soon. It highlighted why I have a very deep, underlying frustration with the organization that I don't see being relieved any time soon.

Tuesday's loss was a bit more emblematic of what I'm talking about - the Sox and Tigers played a fairly even game, with similar mistakes and successes. The only glaring difference - the Tigers executed in their small ball situations and the Sox did not. When an opportunity came to bunt, Tigers manager Jim Leyland took it every time, and his players nailed it every time (even once getting a bunt single out of the deal).

On the flipside, Ozzie has been sitting on his hands for years, thinking of new and interesting post-game rants to excite the media, but has done nothing to upgrade the fundamental skills of his ballclub, nor has he been at all committed to playing that type of game even when he has the chance.

Similarly, Kenny has been hugely successful at the absolute hardest part of a GM's job - assembling talent - but has failed miserably at the easiest part - ensuring that the entire organization, from the greenest prospects to the biggest superstars, can execute the fundamentals at the highest level.


The reason I'm so frustrated is that I don't see this changing. Kenny has been a strong GM - his track record is undeniable, both in looking at the particulars of the moves he makes and in assessing the success he's had. Because of that reason, he's not going anywhere. And honestly, I really don't want him to. I'd much rather hope that some day Kenny wakes up and realizes just how important all the little things in the game are, and decides to re-dedicate the entire organization to mastering the fundamentals.

Really, that's all it would take. If Kenny said it had to be so, within a couple of years it would be so. These players will do whatever it takes to succeed on the club - so if they know playing time and advancement and big paydays are only coming if you can bunt, hit behind runners, drive in guys from third, run the bases, hit the cut-off guy, etc etc, then that's what they'll be busting their hump on.

Even more so, so much of fundamentals is simply taking pride in it. Bunting is NOT hard. Tons of horrendous hitting NL pitchers lay down key bunts every day. If those guys can do it, then paid professional hitters can. But unless your coach and organization are constantly in your ear about it, most big leaguers aren't going to think or care about bunting. Conversely, if it's a constantly stressed necessary ability, then the players will both make it part of their mental focus and develop a pride in it, which is really all these skills require. Focus and pride.


But while I'm willing to wait on Kenny because of the clearly strong GM he is (some day here I'll do a long list of the talent he's brought in and what he's let go, and the plus-minus will be off the charts in his favor), I'm steadily losing such patience with Ozzie. Sure he pushed all the right buttons in 2005, but a lot of really, really bad managers have one good season (see Manuel, Jerry, 2000).

Since then Ozzie let an ultra-talented team completely implode on him in 2006, allowed a decently talented team to be one of the worst in baseball in 2007, and needed 163 games to win one of the worst divisions in baseball with a highly paid, extremely talented group last year. Now this year in another winnable division, he can't even keep yet another talented team above .500.

On top of that, Ozzie's clashed with a number of productive veteran players, failed to develop any of his own prospects into even decent big leaguers, and stuck by a number of lost causes for far too long. Making it all the worse, the team has often lacked any real fire or attitude on the field, has never hit up to its potential, and has failed repeatedly to play solid fundamental baseball on every level.

The fact is that I don't think Ozzie really brings that much to the table. It's clear from the team's execution that he isn't a great teacher of the game. And it's clear from watching other teams come into town and exploit our weaknesses while we wait around for 3-run homers that he's no great strategist. The above-mentioned flat teams and clubhouse clashes show that Ozzie's not even truly a "player's coach."

So what is Ozzie's value, besides enjoyable post-game antics and an admittedly refreshing honesty to his interviews? I'm not seeing a whole lot. And while people love to make excuses about how the manager can't hit, field, and pitch for the guys, I think it's asinine to believe anything but that a good manager makes a HUGE difference for an organization.


It's all too bad, because if Kenny had this organization focused on fundamentals for the last five years (i.e. when it became clear the softball team approach wouldn't work after 2004) and Ozzie was a plus manager, then I think the Sox could have been in a real dynasty era (at least relative to Chicago baseball). I think we could have made the playoffs in 2006, even made some noise there. I think we could have remained respectable in 2007 and come back in 2008 with another real threat for a title. And this year, we'd definitely be pacing the Central division.

The talent is there this year. The starting pitching hasn't been amazing, but it's been capable and getting better. The pen has been absurdly good. The fielding has been good enough. And the hitting has actually been better than it seems. The problem is that the hitting isn't getting it done when it matters - the Sox are the 2nd worst team in the entire AL in hitting with runners in scoring position, despite having a ton of good hitters, many of whom are having good seasons.

Some of that poor average w/ RISP is bad luck, but some of it is Walker for not preparing these guys to hit as they should be able to in various situations, and some of it is Ozzie for not doing more to put the hitters in the position to succeed by calling for and executing better in the small ball facets of the game. Because of the coaching failures, this team is starting to look like a lost cause.


But, before we get too Northsidey here, keep in mind that there's still plenty of hope this team can turn it around. This homestand, this series, and now CQ's extended stay on the DL don't really suggest such, but it's true - there's a lot of season left. The fact is that the pen is still nasty and the starting pitching might just be coming around. Floyd and Danks are starting to consistently resemble the guys they were last year, Buehrle is Buehrle, and both Richard and Contreras have shown signs of having some dominant stuff.

That sort of pitching alone is easily enough to get a team rolling, to reel off 10 of 12 and be right back in it. And don't think that's a pipe dream - plenty of clubs go through bad stretches early and then turn it around later. Plenty of teams yo-yo up and down before settling into their groove and contending. The Sox have the pieces, including the most difficult to find ones - starting and relief pitching - it's just a matter of it all coming together.

And if you assume that the bad luck of their poor RISP numbers will be offset by some future good luck to bring it in line with their overall hitting numbers, you start to realize why all this throw in the towel stuff is WAY too premature. I know we're Chicago fans who expect the worst, but we're not Cubs fans. We can be optimistic without being naive, and we can weather tough times without claiming that the sky is falling.

Fueling this white flag fury is the media, who never has bought into the Sox. They didn't think they were much last year, and despite being a defending division champ, were given no chance to contend this year. My hope - the clubhouse starts to read all these clippings about giving up and uses it as motivation. Few things in professional sports these days are more potent than a genuine "no one believes in us" team mentality. Hopefully the Sox can grab that, make it an "us against the world" situation, and charge back into contention.


But even if we do make a run, get back into it, even win the division (all things I still believe are very possible), I'm still gonna feel a bit cheated, knowing that if the Sox would just take the absolute easiest step toward having a regularly successful organization - stressing fundamentals above all else - that whatever success they've had could be even greater, happening even more often, and with far fewer doubts and frustrations along the way.

Man it's exhausting being a diehard.
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Notes and Thoughts

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I said coming out of Monday's game that picking up that first game of a series is huge. Little did I know it'd be so that we weren't swept by the last place As. Oh well, Detroit lost three straight to Beantown so the only thing lost was a little bit of opportunity to gain ground. But we'll have plenty of that next week. And don't worry about the Twins - they can't pitch and can't win away from the Dome. Until that changes, they aren't legit contenders. They're thorns in our side, but not major threats. Yet.

For now, some notes and thoughts on the squad:

-What will it take for AJ to get his due? He's certainly well known around baseball, but not for the great catcher he is. Sure other catchers have a better arm or put up better numbers, but how many bring the entire package AJ does, and do so 130-140 games every year (a huge number for a catcher)? He's streaky at the plate, but he's still a positive in the lineup, which most catchers aren't. His arm isn't great, but a lot of the blame for the steals against him seem to fall on the pitchers. I think AJ's handling of the staff is outstanding, with season after season of great numbers out of less than overwhelming arms in a total hitter's ballpark.

And of course, AJ is the epitome of the intangible, being as smart, hard edged, and competitive as they come. He literally wins at least a game a year on some play that only AJ would think to make. Last year it was the baserunner interference call that won a game against TB. And given how things played out, that one win meant a hell of a lot.

-Speaking of getting their due, how about Jermaine Dye? When Paulie, Thome, Crede, and Swish all disappeared last season, it was Dye who remained productive and gave CQ the protection he needed to put up MVP numbers. Sure, 2006 was the only year he put up noteworthy single-season numbers (44 HRs, 120 RBI), but Dye deserves credit for the fact that in four years with the Sox, only once has he failed to hit .274, jack 31 HRs, or drive in 86 runs (all numbers he's looking up to equally again this year). Equally important, only once has he failed to play 145 games. And in that one "fail" year (2007) he still played 138 games, hit 28 HRs, and drove in 78.

I road JD pretty hard in 2005 about not being clutch, but he made me eat my words by winning the World Series MVP (not the most impressive MVP performance, but a crucial and admirable one all the same). Since then he's just continued to show up every year and produce, while many around him failed to do so. Once again this season JD has stepped up, covering up for Thome's bad start, Konerko's lack of power, and CQ's injury issues.

-On Thome's bad start and Konerko's lack of power - I gotta say I actually like the way both of these guys are looking. I'm glad Konerko's not trying to do too much and is taking his singles. The Sox need a consistent .300 hitter in their lineup, and early in his career, Konerko looked like that guy. He's since become more of a .280-40 guy than a .300-25 hitter, but in recent years he wasn't really able to do either. I'm glad to see Paulie getting back to basics and taking his hits. The power will come - not that his 7 HRs and 13 doubles are anything to scoff at. But if he continues with this approach, the real power will come, possibly to the tune of Paulie's best year since 2006.

Ditto for Thome - I really thought that he'd taken another big step back this year after the start he had. Last season he seemed to drop from the .280 hitter he had been to a .240 type. This year it looked like he was down to a .220 type. But he's warmed up of late and has his average back over .250-.260. Given the way Thome can drive the ball and his great eye, if he can keep hitting around .260 or so, he'll be the legitimate left-handed presence in the heart of the order we need.

-As you could have guessed by the topics of many of my previous posts, the success that Pods and Alexei are having at the top of the order couldn't make me happier. Pods is putting up good at-bat after good at-bat, looking like he did in 2005 and 2006 (tho not on the base paths, where he's only got 5 steals and has made a ton of outs).

And Alexei is back to the hitting fool he was last year, except he now seems to really be relishing his roll as a #2 hitter. I've seen him try to bunt on numerous occasions, even having success with some of them. I know it's not easy for him, but I really respect and appreciate that Alexei is putting in a good faith effort to do it. He's got all the skills to be a tremendous #2 hitter if he can just get his bunting to respectable levels. In the meantime, I'll take The Missile warming up with the weather, just like he did last year.

-Very curious to see what the BA/Wise platoon will look like in center. BA continues to hit righties with authority (.313 average in 67 at-bats), while he struggles with lefties (only 4 hits in 28 at-bats). So it doesn't seem to make sense to use him in a traditional platoon set-up. Given his amazing defense in center and upside, you'd think Ozzie would keep BA as his everyday guy.

However, Wise was 5-for-11 before getting hurt and does bring a nice spark to the club. My hope is that Ozzie respects that Wise is better served as an Ozuna type, subbing in here and there, providing some hard work and hustle, but not getting over-exposed. He can spell Pods, BA, and Dye (as he's capable of playing all three OF spots) to get the at-bats he needs.

Right now though, Ozzie is continuing to show his freakin annoying favortism, as Wise started three of four against the As, including against a lefty yesterday. Again, given BA's production against righties, there's no justification for this. Wise is a whopping 1-for-12 with 4 Ks since coming back, and this time Ozzie can't hide behind the excuse that he's feeling the pressure of leading off or being the man in center. Unlike the start of the year, no one cares about Wise right now. I mean how many of you even realized he was playing every day again?

Nope, Wise is just not a good player, and that's evident by his being 31 and never having played regularly in the bigs. He's got some talent - we've seen him come up with some big hits and good plays. But Wise is NOT an everyday major leaguer. I railed about this last year, when Griff was getting everyday at-bats as BA rotted on the bench, despite Griff being terrible in center and hitting just as poorly as BA ever did.

So Ozzie, GET OVER YOUR DAMN FAVORTISMS! Wise is not an everyday CF - he's a twice a week guy who gives you speed and OF flexibility off the bench. BA might not be an everyday CF is an offensive sense, but he's been respectable enough this year AND remains one of the better defensive centerfielders out there. Give him the bulk of the PT already!

-It didn't draw much attention, but the acquisition of Ramon Castro from the Mets might be a small, but crucial one. There's a reason Corky Miller has never played regularly in the bigs, and while he was serviceable enough, Ramon Castro is a solid career back-up backstop. He's got a bit of power, gets on base decently, and from what little I've learned, handles a staff and throws the ball pretty well. He'll only hit around .230-.240, but given the pop, walks, and limited need for offense out of your backup catcher, that should be just fine.

Rember that in 2005 Widger had some big games and did a great job spelling AJ throughout the season. To win a championship, you really need contributions from everyone, so Castro could end up playing a meaningful role when all is said and done.

-Not sure what we've got in Getz and Fields, but my gut says Getz will stick and Fields will be gone. It'd be easy to see how Orlando Hudson is tearing it up for the Dodgers and regret not getting him, but I respect the Sox for trying to see if Getz could get it done. I do think he's a solid defender and plays the game right, and that batting in the back of the lineup, he'll become a productive hitter. Everyone has long raved about him having a swing that would hold up in the bigs - for whatever reason, I think that's true.

However, I've got no faith in Fields. After all that post-season work, after the solid spring, after a great start, he's back to the same guy he's always been - too many Ks, not enough hits. But now he doesn't even have the power stroke he showed in 2007, when he hit 23 in 100 games. At first I appreciated this, thinking Fields was trying to just get his hits and let the power come later. But now I'm feeling like he just doesn't have it.

So I think the Sox made the right move bringing up Beckham and giving him the everyday 3B job. I hope they just stick with it, work through the growing pains, and let him get comfortable up here. He clearly is an uber-talent, so once the hype wears off and he can just play baseball, I think he'll be fine.

If not, hopefully Kenny can overturn some stone and find us a 3B in the trade market, never an easy task. The trade engines haven't really heated up yet (outside of Kenny's office), so there isn't much for talks just yet about who might be available. But let's hope that some sort of impact 3B is out there (maybe a great defender with a bit of speed - not blazing, but also not a base clogger) and that we can get him, if Beckham does go the way of nearly every other Sox prospect of recent vintage (hard to call CQ and Alexei Sox's prospects, as neither spent any time playing for any Sox farm clubs).

-I love seeing Richard build on the successes he had last year. In his first four starts he gave up a total of 7 ER. Sure he was off against the As, but even the best pitchers have those days. Unless he tanks pretty hard in his next two times out, I can't imagine Ozzie is going to be able to take him out of the rotation, no matter how well Contreras is throwing in AAA.

That brings up a tough decision for Ozzie - what to do after Conteras' start on June 8th? Do you send Jose to the pen and hope he can be a serviceable long guy (a spot that's now opened up w/ Broadway's trade to the Mets) until the inevitable injury strikes (I'm looking your way, Colon).

That'd be my play - let Contreras continue to work himself back into effectiveness, let him build his confidence, and most importantly, let the Sox see that he actually can be trusted, all from the relatively low risk role of the long man. Then when Colon goes down, Richards hits a wall, or something else unfortunate happens, we just slide Jose right into the mix and don't miss a beat.

-Glad to see Danks and Floyd re-discover their stuff after a bit of a rough patch for both. My confidence has never wavered on these guys, and it won't even if they have another small hiccup here or there. It's one of the reasons I was glad to see Javy go - because clearly he didn't have the warrior mentality. It was made especially obvious by the presence of Buehrle, but also because of Floyd and Danks, both of whom were far less accomplished than Javy, yet stepped up to the pressure about a thousand times better last year.

Scary thought to realize that Danks, Floyd, and Richard could make up a cheap and highly effective trio for years to come. Did I mention that Buehrle is only 30 and has the type of stuff that could be just as good for another decade plus? I want nothing more for this team over the next five years than those four guys to put up consistently solid season after season. If that happens, the Sox will be contending year in, and year out.

-I'll be scared all season that any of these guys gets hurt or loses their effectiveness, but for now, the Jenks-Linebrink-Thornton-Dotel-Carrasco pen is as good as they come. You'd like to see either Whisler or Gobble show themselves capable of either the 2nd lefty or long guy role, but if not, those aren't terribly difficult spots to fill through a mid-season deal.


I'd like to the Sox take it to the Tribe this weekend - Cleveland is a bad road team with the worst pitching staff in the AL. If that can't heat up the Sox bats, nothing can. Get a little momentum back, hope the Angels continue the Tigers slide, and then be ready to retake first place next week.

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Memories Of The Way We Were

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Some updates on guys who've left the Sox in the past year or so (as well as on one legend and one "guy that go away"):

• Nick Swisher has cooled after a fast start (sound familiar), his average around .244. But he continues to hit the occasional homer and get on base. Will he ever put it all together? Who knows, but I think it's clear that Swish is a productive big leaguer who's multiple positions and great attitude make him an asset, as of course does his 30 HR power and 100-walk ability. But these days, maybe not an asset worth the multi-millions he was getting paid. Still, I think the Sox might miss the energy and spark Swish brought, and wish that Ozzie realized part of his role as manager was to keep even his most temperamental players focused in the right direction. I think it was bad form for Ozzie to throw Swish under the bus when he pouted after a late season demotion - that's Ozzie's job to keep his guys in the right mindset, through thick and thin. It only hurts the Sox when he can't keep these types of players in the fold.
  

• Jerry Owens picked up with the Mariners and is tearing it up for AAA Tacoma, hitting .316, getting on base at a .400 clip, and stealing bases left and right. Not surprising - the kid is talented. But can he thrive in the bigs? Seattle might be a perfect spot for him, as they have openings and JO won't be under much pressure. A chance to learn from Ichiro also won't hurt.
  

• The OC has really struggled in Oakland, hitting a meager .229 with a .278 OBA and .291 SLG. Cabrera never was a pure stat guy, but those numbers are brutal. I'm sure his defense is solid, but he's definitely one of the reasons the As offense is so atrocious. But my guess is that he'll be traded to a contender mid-season and be a real valuable pickup.
  

• Mike MacDougal apparently got picked up by the Nats and now is in their pen. His first two outings - 1.0 IP, 2 hits, a walk, and 1 K. I'll keep an eye on him, but I don't think he'll ever put it back together again. So weird - the guy was a solid closer for a few seasons, then fought his way back from a major injury, was strong for a couple more years for the Sox and Royals, and then just totally lost it. How does that happen?
  

• Javy Vazquez continues to be Javy Vazquez, even in a new league. A sparkling 3.58 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 86 Ks in 70 IP. Pretty great stuff, right? Yeah, he's 4-4. The guy just isn't a winner. Some of it is his approach, some of it is bad luck, some of it is inconsistency. But you can't deny he just doesn't get it done in the one category that matters most.
  

• Nick Masset, traded for Grif Jr. last summer, has found a home in the Cincy pen. He was fairly strong in limited work last year, but this year has been lights out, 1.00 ERA and .78 WHIP in 18 IP. Could he ever have done this for the Sox? Who knows. The Sox would argue they gave him tons of chances, but I disagree. Burying a guy in that garbage long relief, spot duty role is not a chance. You need regular work - as either a starter or a reliever - to show what you can do. That spot/long role should be reserved for guys with no upside, such as middling prospects or journeymen vets. It shouldn't be where you send capable prospects to prove themselves. Cincy has given him a chance and so far he looks pretty damn good. Now I can't be too upset with the Sox, because as much as I hated Grif Jr., they did win the division with him, and who knows if they would have otherwise. But I hope the Sox learn their lesson and quit ruining their prospects in that long/spot role.
  

• Joe Crede started horribly for the Twins, but had a great month-long stretch beginning in late April, where he batted .275 with 8 HRs and a slugging percentage up near .700. However lately he's been missing games with a bruised hand and a foul ball off his knee. Is Crede starting to find his mojo after a bunch of time off and a move to a new team, or is he always gonna be inconsistent and injury-prone? Very curious to see.
  

• Juan Uribe is on a bit of a hot streak and has his average up to .313 in 83 ABs. He's played mostly 3B, but has 10 games in the middle infield as well. Given the struggles of Lillibridge, the recent demotion to AAA of Betemit, and the inconsistent play of both Getz and Fields, it makes you wonder if the Sox couldn't have used Uribe's great defensive glove and occasional hot spurts this season. No question Juan was a HUGE part of that division title last year - his respectable offensive production and great D at third when Crede went down kept us in the hunt.
  

• Boone Logan has looked solid but unspectacular for the Braves' AAA affiliate. He should get called up at some point, but it's not clear he'll ever live up to the promise he showed in coming out of nowhere and dominating Spring Training in 2006.
  

• Horacio Ramirez is back on KC, where the Sox first found him, and continues to suck, just like he did with the Sox. At one point this kid looked like another in a long line of strong young Braves starters, but now it's clear he lost whatever he once had.
  

• Chris Young, the CF on Arizona who was the lone Sox trade piece to ever make Kenny Williams look bad, is hitting .172. After a rookie year in which he hit 32 jacks and stole 27 bases, he was looking like the one that got away (even if we did get a highly valuable and productive Vazquez in return, one valuable enough to net us a highly touted catching prospect). But CYoung saw his HR and SB total go down last year, while his K numbers went up. This year it's gotten even worse. Can he be salvaged? Sure, Young's still only 25. But when this is the "best" prospect Kenny has ever given up in his years of wheeling and dealing prospects for vets, it's high time everyone in baseball respects that Kenny knows his stuff.
  

• Finally, apparently the Sox have made overtures to Big Frank about retiring with the team. Not sure if this would mean a September spot on the roster or just a ceremonial re-signing before an immediate retirement ceremony. Word is that Frank is waiting until the All Star Break or so until he officially gives up on coming back and retires. I do hope that he does so with the Sox - he really is one of the few true baseball legends the Sox have ever had. His place in history is tough to gauge, as he'll get knocked for being a DH and his absurd early career won't be remembered like it should. But few guys ever hit as well as Big Frank did, and if he actually was one of the few clean players of this era, he deserves all the more appreciation for it. Personally, I can't wait until Frank Thomas night, when they retire #35. I've never seen one of a player I followed for his entire career have their jersey retired - it'll be cool to finally experience that.
  

Sox v. Tigers - Gonna Be A Doozy

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First, the bad news - the Tigers are for real. I wish it were otherwise, but they are not going to roll over and play dead so the Sox can limp to another division title. Nope, for the 2009 Sox to be the first in franchise history to put up back-to-back postseason births (yep, in over 100 years, the Sox have never had back-to-back playoff appearances), they're gonna have to earn it.

Early in the season, it's often hard to tell the contenders from the pretenders. A favorable schedule, a hot hitter or two, some lucky breaks, or just a nice run of health can make a team look a whole lot better than they are. So I try to look past record, ignore run differentials, and pay only minor attention to how a team is hitting.

Instead, I focus on two things - the ability to win on the road and the ability to keep the other team from scoring runs. In general, pitching and defense are always what dictates a good team, especially over a 162-game schedule. It tends to be more consistent than hitting and to really be the mark of a good team.

But I also like to see which teams are having success on the road, away not only from friendly crowds, but also a ballpark built for that specific team. To me if you can consistently win in a variety to venues against teams in the comfort of their own parks, you're a legit contender.

So as we pass the 50-game mark, who's getting it done in those categories? Unfortunately for the Sox, in the AL the answer is the Detroit Tigers. Their 13-14 road record is actually pretty good, as anything around .500 is respectable. Even more impressive is the volume - the 13 away wins is second in the AL. That's 13 Ws that can't be taken away from the Tigers, 13 closer to the 40 or so you'd like to get on the road over the course of the year.

But most impressive - at 4.31 runs allowed per game, the Tigers are easily pacing the American League in pitching and defense. Sure, it helps that they've got a spacious park, but the numbers reflect that the Tigers seem to be built right this season. They've improved their defense with Adam Everett at short and Inge at 3rd, and the pitching has looked very good.

Verlander is back to being an Ace, Edwin Jackson seems to be putting it all together, and Porcello is living up to the hype, despite being all of 20 years old. Behind them, Seay and Zumaya have been doing a great job setting up Rodney, who's 10 for 10 in save opportunities.

All told, this makes the Tigers a rare AL team to look good both on the road and in pitching and defense. Texas, especially given their home park, also have done well in both categories. Other than that, no other AL team can currently point to a good Runs Against number and a road record right around .500.

Yep, the Tigers are looking very for real, which means our ChiSox are going to have to win this with some great play of their own. And now the good news - lately, that's exactly what the Sox have done. The pitching and defense have been amazing, to the tune of the 4th best runs allowed in the AL (a hair off of 3rd). With Contreras having been replaced by Richard and BA getting regular time in CF, those numbers should only get better.

On the road, the Sox have been brutal until this recent 5-1 road trip through LA and KC. But now their 12 away wins are good for third in the AL and their 12-15 road record is 5th best in the Junior Circuit. Having already played 27 games on the road to only 23 at home also bodes well for future success.

Of course, before we get to the Tigers, the Sox first need to take care of bottom feeders Oakland and Cleveland over this next week, and last night's game was a great start. Floyd settled down and looked great after an early mistake, and the offense kept fighting until they had broken through the underrated A's pitching staff. Given all the momentum of their last home stand and successful road trip, coming back into town and getting a big W sets the Sox up nicely.

But after that, the five game set against the Tigers next week is looming large. Possibly working in the Sox favor, besides the home field setting - Contreras throwing in the double header. The Tigers don't appear to be very deep in their rotation, which means they're gonna have a hard time finding a viable extra starter for the Monday twin bill. On the flip side, the Sox can roll out a seemingly refocused Contreras, who's been owning hitters down at AAA Charlotte. If Jose is just respectable, the difference between a vet and a green minor leaguer taking a start in such a big series is significant.

Given how the Sox are playing, this 5-game set couldn't come at a better time. If the Sox do take care of business with the A's and Tribe, they'll be on fire as well as catching the Tigers after a pair of tough series against the BoSox and Halos. Hopefully by next Monday the Sox deficit in the division is down to two or 3 games, with the 5-game set giving them an opportunity to get back into first.