Friday, June 5, 2009

Notes and Thoughts

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I said coming out of Monday's game that picking up that first game of a series is huge. Little did I know it'd be so that we weren't swept by the last place As. Oh well, Detroit lost three straight to Beantown so the only thing lost was a little bit of opportunity to gain ground. But we'll have plenty of that next week. And don't worry about the Twins - they can't pitch and can't win away from the Dome. Until that changes, they aren't legit contenders. They're thorns in our side, but not major threats. Yet.

For now, some notes and thoughts on the squad:

-What will it take for AJ to get his due? He's certainly well known around baseball, but not for the great catcher he is. Sure other catchers have a better arm or put up better numbers, but how many bring the entire package AJ does, and do so 130-140 games every year (a huge number for a catcher)? He's streaky at the plate, but he's still a positive in the lineup, which most catchers aren't. His arm isn't great, but a lot of the blame for the steals against him seem to fall on the pitchers. I think AJ's handling of the staff is outstanding, with season after season of great numbers out of less than overwhelming arms in a total hitter's ballpark.

And of course, AJ is the epitome of the intangible, being as smart, hard edged, and competitive as they come. He literally wins at least a game a year on some play that only AJ would think to make. Last year it was the baserunner interference call that won a game against TB. And given how things played out, that one win meant a hell of a lot.

-Speaking of getting their due, how about Jermaine Dye? When Paulie, Thome, Crede, and Swish all disappeared last season, it was Dye who remained productive and gave CQ the protection he needed to put up MVP numbers. Sure, 2006 was the only year he put up noteworthy single-season numbers (44 HRs, 120 RBI), but Dye deserves credit for the fact that in four years with the Sox, only once has he failed to hit .274, jack 31 HRs, or drive in 86 runs (all numbers he's looking up to equally again this year). Equally important, only once has he failed to play 145 games. And in that one "fail" year (2007) he still played 138 games, hit 28 HRs, and drove in 78.

I road JD pretty hard in 2005 about not being clutch, but he made me eat my words by winning the World Series MVP (not the most impressive MVP performance, but a crucial and admirable one all the same). Since then he's just continued to show up every year and produce, while many around him failed to do so. Once again this season JD has stepped up, covering up for Thome's bad start, Konerko's lack of power, and CQ's injury issues.

-On Thome's bad start and Konerko's lack of power - I gotta say I actually like the way both of these guys are looking. I'm glad Konerko's not trying to do too much and is taking his singles. The Sox need a consistent .300 hitter in their lineup, and early in his career, Konerko looked like that guy. He's since become more of a .280-40 guy than a .300-25 hitter, but in recent years he wasn't really able to do either. I'm glad to see Paulie getting back to basics and taking his hits. The power will come - not that his 7 HRs and 13 doubles are anything to scoff at. But if he continues with this approach, the real power will come, possibly to the tune of Paulie's best year since 2006.

Ditto for Thome - I really thought that he'd taken another big step back this year after the start he had. Last season he seemed to drop from the .280 hitter he had been to a .240 type. This year it looked like he was down to a .220 type. But he's warmed up of late and has his average back over .250-.260. Given the way Thome can drive the ball and his great eye, if he can keep hitting around .260 or so, he'll be the legitimate left-handed presence in the heart of the order we need.

-As you could have guessed by the topics of many of my previous posts, the success that Pods and Alexei are having at the top of the order couldn't make me happier. Pods is putting up good at-bat after good at-bat, looking like he did in 2005 and 2006 (tho not on the base paths, where he's only got 5 steals and has made a ton of outs).

And Alexei is back to the hitting fool he was last year, except he now seems to really be relishing his roll as a #2 hitter. I've seen him try to bunt on numerous occasions, even having success with some of them. I know it's not easy for him, but I really respect and appreciate that Alexei is putting in a good faith effort to do it. He's got all the skills to be a tremendous #2 hitter if he can just get his bunting to respectable levels. In the meantime, I'll take The Missile warming up with the weather, just like he did last year.

-Very curious to see what the BA/Wise platoon will look like in center. BA continues to hit righties with authority (.313 average in 67 at-bats), while he struggles with lefties (only 4 hits in 28 at-bats). So it doesn't seem to make sense to use him in a traditional platoon set-up. Given his amazing defense in center and upside, you'd think Ozzie would keep BA as his everyday guy.

However, Wise was 5-for-11 before getting hurt and does bring a nice spark to the club. My hope is that Ozzie respects that Wise is better served as an Ozuna type, subbing in here and there, providing some hard work and hustle, but not getting over-exposed. He can spell Pods, BA, and Dye (as he's capable of playing all three OF spots) to get the at-bats he needs.

Right now though, Ozzie is continuing to show his freakin annoying favortism, as Wise started three of four against the As, including against a lefty yesterday. Again, given BA's production against righties, there's no justification for this. Wise is a whopping 1-for-12 with 4 Ks since coming back, and this time Ozzie can't hide behind the excuse that he's feeling the pressure of leading off or being the man in center. Unlike the start of the year, no one cares about Wise right now. I mean how many of you even realized he was playing every day again?

Nope, Wise is just not a good player, and that's evident by his being 31 and never having played regularly in the bigs. He's got some talent - we've seen him come up with some big hits and good plays. But Wise is NOT an everyday major leaguer. I railed about this last year, when Griff was getting everyday at-bats as BA rotted on the bench, despite Griff being terrible in center and hitting just as poorly as BA ever did.

So Ozzie, GET OVER YOUR DAMN FAVORTISMS! Wise is not an everyday CF - he's a twice a week guy who gives you speed and OF flexibility off the bench. BA might not be an everyday CF is an offensive sense, but he's been respectable enough this year AND remains one of the better defensive centerfielders out there. Give him the bulk of the PT already!

-It didn't draw much attention, but the acquisition of Ramon Castro from the Mets might be a small, but crucial one. There's a reason Corky Miller has never played regularly in the bigs, and while he was serviceable enough, Ramon Castro is a solid career back-up backstop. He's got a bit of power, gets on base decently, and from what little I've learned, handles a staff and throws the ball pretty well. He'll only hit around .230-.240, but given the pop, walks, and limited need for offense out of your backup catcher, that should be just fine.

Rember that in 2005 Widger had some big games and did a great job spelling AJ throughout the season. To win a championship, you really need contributions from everyone, so Castro could end up playing a meaningful role when all is said and done.

-Not sure what we've got in Getz and Fields, but my gut says Getz will stick and Fields will be gone. It'd be easy to see how Orlando Hudson is tearing it up for the Dodgers and regret not getting him, but I respect the Sox for trying to see if Getz could get it done. I do think he's a solid defender and plays the game right, and that batting in the back of the lineup, he'll become a productive hitter. Everyone has long raved about him having a swing that would hold up in the bigs - for whatever reason, I think that's true.

However, I've got no faith in Fields. After all that post-season work, after the solid spring, after a great start, he's back to the same guy he's always been - too many Ks, not enough hits. But now he doesn't even have the power stroke he showed in 2007, when he hit 23 in 100 games. At first I appreciated this, thinking Fields was trying to just get his hits and let the power come later. But now I'm feeling like he just doesn't have it.

So I think the Sox made the right move bringing up Beckham and giving him the everyday 3B job. I hope they just stick with it, work through the growing pains, and let him get comfortable up here. He clearly is an uber-talent, so once the hype wears off and he can just play baseball, I think he'll be fine.

If not, hopefully Kenny can overturn some stone and find us a 3B in the trade market, never an easy task. The trade engines haven't really heated up yet (outside of Kenny's office), so there isn't much for talks just yet about who might be available. But let's hope that some sort of impact 3B is out there (maybe a great defender with a bit of speed - not blazing, but also not a base clogger) and that we can get him, if Beckham does go the way of nearly every other Sox prospect of recent vintage (hard to call CQ and Alexei Sox's prospects, as neither spent any time playing for any Sox farm clubs).

-I love seeing Richard build on the successes he had last year. In his first four starts he gave up a total of 7 ER. Sure he was off against the As, but even the best pitchers have those days. Unless he tanks pretty hard in his next two times out, I can't imagine Ozzie is going to be able to take him out of the rotation, no matter how well Contreras is throwing in AAA.

That brings up a tough decision for Ozzie - what to do after Conteras' start on June 8th? Do you send Jose to the pen and hope he can be a serviceable long guy (a spot that's now opened up w/ Broadway's trade to the Mets) until the inevitable injury strikes (I'm looking your way, Colon).

That'd be my play - let Contreras continue to work himself back into effectiveness, let him build his confidence, and most importantly, let the Sox see that he actually can be trusted, all from the relatively low risk role of the long man. Then when Colon goes down, Richards hits a wall, or something else unfortunate happens, we just slide Jose right into the mix and don't miss a beat.

-Glad to see Danks and Floyd re-discover their stuff after a bit of a rough patch for both. My confidence has never wavered on these guys, and it won't even if they have another small hiccup here or there. It's one of the reasons I was glad to see Javy go - because clearly he didn't have the warrior mentality. It was made especially obvious by the presence of Buehrle, but also because of Floyd and Danks, both of whom were far less accomplished than Javy, yet stepped up to the pressure about a thousand times better last year.

Scary thought to realize that Danks, Floyd, and Richard could make up a cheap and highly effective trio for years to come. Did I mention that Buehrle is only 30 and has the type of stuff that could be just as good for another decade plus? I want nothing more for this team over the next five years than those four guys to put up consistently solid season after season. If that happens, the Sox will be contending year in, and year out.

-I'll be scared all season that any of these guys gets hurt or loses their effectiveness, but for now, the Jenks-Linebrink-Thornton-Dotel-Carrasco pen is as good as they come. You'd like to see either Whisler or Gobble show themselves capable of either the 2nd lefty or long guy role, but if not, those aren't terribly difficult spots to fill through a mid-season deal.


I'd like to the Sox take it to the Tribe this weekend - Cleveland is a bad road team with the worst pitching staff in the AL. If that can't heat up the Sox bats, nothing can. Get a little momentum back, hope the Angels continue the Tigers slide, and then be ready to retake first place next week.

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