"Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!" - Harry Dunne
I've made my dissatisfaction with Kenny's off-season moves very, very clear. Mainly I've focused on Teahen, but I also really don't like the Andruw Jones signing. I actually just wrote a fairly sizeable amount about how incredibly terrible that signing was, but then I realized I actually meant to write about today's events. So check back in later this week for a pair of posts detailing my thoughts on the bench signings and the minor pen shake-up.
Because today, today we celebrate. I just got an email from a Cubs fan buddy who said, and I quote, "Congratulations on acquiring the worst player in baseball."
My response - actually my response was like 10 pages, most of which I'll repeat in this post, but this was the grand finale - "I am not exaggerating when I say that to me the Sox just made the single best move this off-season that I ever could have hoped for. No other realistic transaction would have helped their team like the one they just pulled off. Nothing."
So why do we have such differing opinions of this player? While my buddy is a Cubs fan and thus inherently less schooled in true baseball wisdom, he actually does know a good deal about the game and has educated me in a number of areas and with a number of insightful theories (some of which I'm sure I'll share here).
So what was his beef? First and foremost, his view was absolutely skewed by being a Cubs fan. For some reason, Cubs fans HATE Pierre. In their minds they acquired one of the best players in the game and ended up with a career-worst year that tanked their clubs hopes that year.
In reality? Pierre had the SAME year with the Cubs that he's had every season since 2001. As I posted last time, this guy is one of the most remarkably consistent ballplayers of his generation:
- For the past two seasons, Pierre has played part-time, so let's combine and reduce those into one 650 AB year and then look at what he's done since becoming a regular in 2001:
2007 - 668 AB, .293 avg, 196 hits, 96 R, 64 SB
2006 - 699 AB, .292 avg, 204 hits, 87 R, 58 SB
2005 - 656 AB, .276 avg, 181 hits, 96 R, 57 SB
2004 - 678 AB, .326 avg, 221 hits, 100 R, 45 SB
2003 - 668 AB, .305 avg, 204 hits, 100 R, 65 SB
2002 - 592 AB, .287 avg, 170 hits, 90 R, 47 SB
2001 - 617 AB, .327 avg, 202 hits, 108 R, 46 SB
Can you even pick out the year he was with the Cubs? Is there any stretch that he went from being incredible awesome to bad? Nope - some numbers jump around, but at the end of the day, he gives 650+ ABs, around 200 hits, 95 runs, and 50 SBs. There isn't a season in there where he's significantly deviated from that expectation. Not one.
The simple fact is that the Cubs had high hopes in 2006, as they do every year, but they were dashed by Marshall, Marmol, Rusch, Guzman, Mateo, Prior, Walrong, Kuk Ryu, and Williams combining for 80(!) starts, despite EVERY ONE of them posting an ERA over 5.32!
How is that Pierre's fault? Even the Cubs offensive troubles weren't Pierre's fault - DLee got hurt, ARam and Jacque Jones had poor starts, and Ronny Cedeno had 572 plate appearances.
I tell you all of this because as Sox fans, you're surely surrounded by Cubs fans, and those Cubs fans will inevitably crap on this move. Ignore them - their opinions are uneducated and baseless. But as a Sox fan, you should already know this.
Having said all that, my buddy did bring up a couple of gripes about Pierre that even the most unbiased of observers will mention when commenting on this move. In fact, what he said will be the stock complaints you will hear from everyone - Cubs fans, local commentators, and national opinion makers. Heck, even your fellow Sox fans will bring these up, so I'll quote him and then discuss the virtues of these various concerns:
"Nothing like a leadoff hitter who can't get on base, hit for any power whatsoever, and has a weak throwing arm all while being overpaid."
Taken one at a time:
1. Pierre can't get on base.
OK, this is based in truth. You'll notice in my listing of his year-by-year numbers I left out OBA, which is a key stat for any hitter, but especially for a lead-off hitter. Yeah, that was on purpose. Pierre's OBAs just aren't that good.
But they also aren't terrible. Yes he's had a bunch of seasons in the .320-.330 range, which is mildly low for a leadoff guy. But he's also had a few in the .360-.370 range, which is outstanding. Over the course of his career? .348. Dude, that is absolutely solid for a leadoff hitter. No, it's not amazing, but if he gets on at a .348 clip this season, that will NOT be a weakness. And that's very possible - he left a pitcher friendly park in LA for the Cell, and yet still is coming off a .365 OBA in 425 plate appearance season.
One final note - you never hear anyone complain about Ichiro's inability to walk. Here's a guy who only walks 6 out of every 100 plate appearances. Yet he's absolutely 100% rightfully known as one of the best lead-off hitters of all time. Pierre walks 5.5 times out of every 100 plate appearances, so why does he get so much more crap for it? Sure, Ichiro is a career .333 hitter, but Pierre's a career .301 hitter. Does that difference make Ichiro a living legend and yet Pierre a piece of garbage?
I think the more accurate assessment is Ichiro is one of the best lead-off hitters ever, while Pierre is simply one of the top 10 lead-off hitters of his generation. Given that Pierre hasn't lost a step, I'm not going to let a skewed view of Pierre's walk rate take away from all he's accomplished.
2. Pierre doesn't hit for any power.
Combine this with #1 and you start to wonder, what does this guy do? Let's just say that Pierre does resort back to the .326-.331 OBA range he put up every season from 05-08. Combined with his guaranteed lack of any power (he's never hit more than 3 HRs), will this prove the naysayers right about how little he does for your club?
Nope. First off, because everything is relative. Of course I wish the Sox had invented a time machine and gone back to acquire 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, but the reality is that the good contact, good OBA, great speed, decent power lead-off hitter is the single hardest thing in all of baseball to find.
Ace pitchers? There's a handful of them every season, it's always changing, and they can be had in free agency or for a boatload of prospects. Big boppers? The most over-saturated keystone commodity out there, given that you really only need two big bats to win the title. Catchers, Middle Infielders, Centerfielders? All key pieces to a championship team, but you can survive with a great defensive role player type.
But a top notch lead-off hitter? Those are SO rare and even harder to get ahold of. How many leadoff hitters steal 40+ bases, hit over .290, get on base at a .375 clip, can jack 15+ HRs, know how to bunt, are consistent producers who avoid prolonged slumps, and get the fine art of using base-running to change the game?
The simple reality is that those guys don't exist, and the ones who come closest are nearly impossible to get (check out the asking price for Carl Crawford, or talk to Indians or Mariners about Sizemore or Ichiro). So ANY leadoff you're going to acquire is going to be missing something. The question is how much will he be missing and how important are those pieces.
With Pierre, you're not getting any power. Personally - I don't care. A lead-off hitter's job is to consistently spark the rest of the offense. Power is not even remotely required to do that, so don't waste a second worrying about Juan's lack of it.
And as I said, a .325-.330 OBA is a very distinct possibility. And that hurts - you definitely want your lead-off hitter getting on base in front of your big hitters. But .325-.330 is not the end of the world. Most speedy lead-off hitters are in the .325-.350 range anyway, so you're not losing much versus all the teams you're trying to beat.
More importantly though, if you scroll down the rest of that prototypical leadoff hitter checklist (i.e. a description of Rickey), then you'll start to see why I love Juan Pierre.
- Consistency - check.
The number two hitter was no longer just trying to take some pitches and move him over, often times sneaking singles through holes created in the infield. The number three hitter was no longer looking just to drive the ball and bring a guy in from third, but instead trying to carry the team every time up. And the big boppers were finding that their three run-homers and two-run doubles were solo shots and harmless bases empty, two-out doubles.
The Sox went through the same thing with Ray Durham's streaks and with Pods' injuries. When those guys weren't going, it didn't matter that a string of big hitters were waiting behind, the Sox offense just couldn't get regular runs without something happening at the top.
If there's anything that Pierre brings to the table, it's consistency. As I showed, every year he basically puts up the same numbers. And it's more than just yearly consistency - the guy is consistent month-to-month. I just went through all his splits since 2004 and rarely does he ever hit below .260 or .270 in a month.
But equally as important to being consistent is being healthy. And Pierre is ALWAYS healthy. Check those yearly numbers again - do you see how many ABs he's getting? Before becoming a part-timer in LA, Pierre hadn't missed a SINGLE GAME in five straight seasons. Only a glut of outfielders in LA has been able to keep this guy off the field.
The end result - a guy who regular clocks in at over 200 hits. Wanna know how many times the Sox have pulled off that feat since 1936? Twice - Nellie Fox in 1954 and Albert Belle in 1998. Juan Pierre has done it four times this decade. Throw in his 30-40 walks a year and you see why he's able to consistently score over 95 runs (5 times this decade). Since Ray Durham finished off a long stretch of 100+ run seasons in 2001, Iguchi (in 2006) is the only other top of the order hitter the Sox have had break that barrier.
The simple fact is that Pierre comes to play every day and every day finds a way to help his offense. And if you get caught up on his low walk total you're gonna miss the consistently high rate of hits and runs he's recording, both of which make him a plus lead-off man.
- Speed - check.
That's why the statheads are wrong about the stolen base - because it does more than just advance you one base. It changes the whole make-up of the game. And Pierre even does it at a highly efficient rate, being successful at about a 75% clip. Even the statheads start to cede that the SB is valuable when you're that good at it.
- Knows the art of leading off - check.
But it's more than that - Pierre also knows how to do countless other little things. He's renowned for getting to the park early and rolling balls down the lines to gauge how bunts will play. Being able to bunt is HUGE in terms of keeping consistent, especially when you're not a big walks guy. Tough pitcher, cold weather, bit of a slump? All perfect times to lay a bunt or two down and cheat your way on base. Plus, Pierre won't always be in a leading off situation. He'll come up with no outs and a guy on first or second, and then that bunting skill becomes a way to keep the offense grooving along.
Pierre also makes incredible contact - despite logging around 750 plate appearances in a number of seasons, he's never once had more than 52 Ks and most often is in the 35-45 range. With that kind of speed, you want to be putting the ball in play. Something that never is figured into the stats - how many times does Pierre make contact and force an error from an infielder trying to hurry a throw to catch the speedster?
Equally important, again, often times Pierre will be hitting with guys on base and you're gonna want him making contact and moving them along. Despite the serious set-backs of Teahen and Andruw Jones, the Sox have actually made good progress moving away from strike-out types and getting more contact-prone hitters. Pierre will make the Sox even better in that regard.
In all, yes, Pierre is not the absolute perfect lead-off hitter. But given what's available out there and given all that he does, Pierre is a hell of a find. He'll do so much to make this offense go, and maybe most importantly, he'll keep Ozzie thinking smallball. Pierre will be exciting and effective, and with any support around him, should be a key to sparking a very solid offense this year.
3. Pierre has a weak throwing arm.
OK, again this is true. But again, it's not that big of a deal. Pierre is a decent outfielder, but not great, and that terrible arm is a major reason. However, the Sox have Rios to play center and seem content with moving Quentin over to right. I'm hoping that's what they do - while Quentin probably won't be great in right, he'll be serviceable. And supposedly Rios is a much better centerfielder - his natural spot - than rightfielder.
Most certainly, Pierre is far better off in left than center. Much like Pods, putting him in left can turn him from a liability to an asset. His arm will be better hidden and his fielding and range will both be pluses for a traditionally weak outfield spot. I can't say I know a ton about his defense, but anyone who's played as much centerfield on as many good teams as he has should be a decent defender. I know he's got speed and I know he takes great pride in knowing the outfield dimensions and positioning himself correctly. Alongside Rios and Quentin, I think we've got a pretty athletic and capable outfield defensively.
4. Pierre is overpaid.
This is the most impressive part of the deal - the Sox are paying Pierre a pittance to play for them the next two seasons. Just $3M this year and $5M next. Remember, Chone Figgins, a very similar offensive player with injury concerns, just got $9M per for four years. Pierre himself originally was signed for $45M over five. Kenny Lofton got regular deals until he was 40, because teams always need guys who can lead-off.
But for some reason, as soon as Pierre signed that deal he was hammered as being overpaid. Despite the fact that supply and demand made his deal perfectly reasonable, given how important lead-off hitters are and how few can actually do the job with any regular success. He's done nothing but contribute in LA, even when losing his fulltime job - first to the signing of Andrew Jones, then to the Manny trade.
Most guys would have sulked after signing a big deal, doing exactly what he always had, and then being forced to the bench. Not Pierre - he turned himself into a valuable super-sub, sparking the Dodgers when they needed it in both 2008 and 2009 (the latter, when Manny was lost to a 50-game steroid suspension). To me that's one more asset on the checklist - being a great team player. Especially with franchise kids around, it's gonna be great to see such a selfless sort like Pierre play the game.
So even up near the $9M per he's owed each of the next two seasons, I still would have liked this deal for the Sox. But at $4M per - that is an absolute steal. With our payroll up against it, somehow Kenny found us the best lead-off man on the market and did so without forcing us to deal a significant piece to cut salary elsewhere.
Relating back to the quote that opened this post, this move today has me happier about the Sox than I ever thought I'd be this off-season, given the Getz-Teahen fiasco and my soon to be propounded on Druw Jones botch up. Pierre changes the outlook of things so much, especially when acquired at such a cheap salary hit. I've got every faith he'll produce - now my concerns are just whether Ozzie will be inspired by his presence and the more athletic lineup to finally get back to a more dynamic approach. The HRs will come - but that doesn't mean you can't run, bunt, steal, and so on. The best team is the one that can beat you in both ways. The Sox could be that team this year, if Ozzie will just let them.
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