2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part IV (RF & DH)

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Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). Yesterday, LF and CF (here). I'll finish up with SPs and finally RPs.

Today - RF and DH.


RF - Quentin

This guy is a hell of a conundrum. Is he the uberprospect the Dbacks faithful were waiting on forever? Or the never-will-be the Dbacks front office unloaded for a decent but unexciting prospect? Is he the MVP-caliber monster that tore up the AL before getting injured late in 2008? Or is he a throw-back 80s type slugger, incapable of hitting for average, but a guy who will smack bombs, get on base, and ultimately drive in a really good number of runs.

Honestly, I think I've got a pretty good lock on who this kid is. It's actually as clear as his per 162 game averages - Quentin will hit you about .240-.250, mash at about a 25-35 HR pace, score around 85 R and drive in 100+, given a full season.

He'll get hot for stretches and carry you, but then he'll go stone cold and be a massive hole in the lineup. And most importantly, Quentin is going to get hurt - both nagging injuries and major ones - and miss a decent chunk of games every year. In all CQ will probably consistently hit 20 and drive in 80 while missing a month every year. On top of all that, he'll be very mediocre in the OF (tho with a solid arm) but not clog the bases like most slugging types.

So, is Quentin worth keeping around if that's what you're gonna get? You know, it depends on two things. First, what is he going to cost you? He's in his arbitration years and making $3.2M already. As much as he was a disappointment to fans last year, the 26 HR and 87 RBI will earn him another solid raise. How much of one (and whether you can get him to sign something a little more longterm) dictates whether CQ is worth the obvious negatives that I've come to accept.

The second factor is what kind of market is there out there for Q? Even after last season's disappointment, he had a ton of trade value. How about now, when Quentin bounced back with a year that still had injuries, was far from MVP form, but showed that he's absolutely got heart-of-the-order RBI producing skills? 26 HR and 87 RBI aren't too shabby, but for a guy who missed about 35 games - they're actually pretty impressive.

And while Quentin's salaries will go up for each of the next two seasons under arbitration, he'll remain under his team's control for that time. That's extremely valuable to all the cost-conscious, risk adverse teams out there (which is pretty much all of them). Especially because heart of the order sluggers are about as expensive as any commodity you'll find.

In all, I can't rightfully say what I'd do with Carlos. I do know that the Sox are in a better spot than most teams in that they can put Carlos at DH for stretches to both keep him healthy and offset some of his defensive deficiencies, but can also hold open an OF spot, as it's doubtful this early in his career that he's mentally ready to be a fulltime DH.

While the Sox management took a beating from a lot of places for their use of the DH slot as a flex spot last year, in principle I agree with the strategy - I just thought it was horribly executed (more on that later). Given that I'd also like to see an aging Konerko brought back, I think the Sox would be wise to again look at their DH slot as a place to buy day's off for some of their producers w/o taking their bat out of the lineup.

Hell, it goes beyond Konerko and Quentin - I'd get my athletes like JP, Beckham, and Alexei days in the DH slot as well. Those guys are plus hitters who you don't want to lose from your lineup at any time. But they can use mental and physical breaks throughout the year - so why not give them that with a game here or there as the DH? Just come to the ballpark with zero expectation besides swingin the bat four times. Get refreshed and be ready to play another 6 games in a row.

So if the Sox are going to keep using their DH as such, I can actually get behind another year of Quentin, as long as they can't score some extremely useful piece for him on the trade market. That's the big wild card - if some team really likes the idea of a cost-effective run producer with MVP-caliber upside under control for two years, then I'd be willing to sell now on Quentin.

One angle based on absolutely nothing - Quentin for Ichiro. Probably will take a bunch more than that, but if you're talking Quentin and the Mariners are at all considering dealing Ichiro, then there's the start of a deal to be made.

From the Mariners perspective, their offense last year was horrifically bad. And as good as Ichiro is, he's totally wasted in a lineup that has literally no one behind him who can drive him in. Throw in that he's aging (even if extremely well) and seems to be the type of ego who won't suffer a losing club for long, can't you see the M's being willing to shake things up?

So why not do so by solving one of the two giant holes in your lineup (well, probably three holes - I really think Seattle doesn't have single player on their roster who could legitimately be considered a #3, #4, or #5 hitter) with a guy like Quentin, who might just revert to MVP form, and at the least will drive in runs at a 100+ RBI pace, all while being only 29 next opening day and with two years of salary control?

Especially because you've got a perfect leadoff hitter replacement for Ichiro in Figgins, someone without much trade value after a very middling season last year and a hefty contract. Throw in the salary savings, the other prospects the Sox would send you, and you're telling me the Mariners GM isn't liking his team better after a deal like that?

As for the Sox, don't get me started on how beautiful it would be to have Ichiro hitting #1 or #2 for this team. JP is the consummate team player, so you leave it up to the mildly diva-like Ichiro to tell you if he'd prefer to hit #1 or #2, slot Pierre into the other, and then just sit back and watch as AL pitchers go nuts trying to contain these two.

But it wouldn't stop there - you've got Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all who can run a bit themselves. And more than just stealing bases and getting into pitchers' heads, the Sox lineup would be filled with guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. I've gone on about this kind of thing before - to win you need consistency. And what the statheads have failed to tackle so far, what is the weak foundation that has lead to so many of the stat crunchers theories and proclamations failing is that to win in baseball you have to be able to produce at a relatively consistent level every day.

A lineup with those five guys is well on the way to doing that. Sure, you'd still need a legit producer to lock up the #4 slot (I'm seeing Paulie still there) and then a lefty bat that has to be respected to hit #5 or #6 (seeing that out of the DH slot), but that's doable.

But that's all pipe dreams - for now, there's been no word that Ichiro is available nor that Carlos would be what they'd want. And while there might be a great deal for Carlos out there, the way Kenny operates it's something that you're not gonna see coming. So for that reason I'll leave a Carlos trade as the one wild card that could take this off-season into a different direction than I guessed, but still leave me very satisfied.

For this post, I'll simply say that I'd probably bring Quentin back and hope that he's finally healthy, finally of the right mindset, and appreciate that even if he's not, he's still gonna give me pop and RBI production that is very difficult to find and do it w/o a major financial commitment, be it in dollars or years.


DH - Blah

As I've said a bunch of times, I'm definitely in support of how the Sox would like to use their DH slot. The problem was that like Ozzie's supposed commitment to small ball and Lovie's commitment to the run, the Sox DH plan turned out to be very different in execution than in design.

The point of dumping Thome was the Sox wanted to open up the spot to rest their regulars more. And on some level it worked, as Konerko and Quentin each got 23 DH games while JP, Rios, and Beckham added another 13 days off. The problem was that adds up to fewer than 60 games - barely more than a third of the season. The rest of the time the spot was filled with under-producing bums who had no right getting DH at-bats.

In fact, eventually the Sox just gave up on the idea all together, taking on a big chunk of salary for Manny to fill the spot pretty much every day.

But I hope that was a desperation move forced upon them by the mishandling of the approach, not an admittance by Ozzie that his basic strategy was wrong or a decision by Kenny to revert back to the DH as a one-dimensional slugger spot, as seems to be the GM's inclination.

Because I think with the right personnel, utilizing the DH to rest regulars and rotate a number of more dynamic bats into good match-ups is definitely the best way to get the most out of the slot. I've long argued that more teams should use platoons, based on how many guys you see end up with great final numbers on a season where they only played in a portion of the games. Often times you find out these are guys whose effectiveness is limited to righties or lefties, and that they're on teams who capitalize on it.

So me, I'm out looking for some good platoon bench options who can hold their own in the field to use to rotate through the Sox DH slot. I sure as heck am not gonna take a guy who should be a great pinch-hitter/late-inning defensive replacement or, at most, an everyday #2 or #9 hitter, and ask him to suddenly turn into a #5 hitter like they did with Kotsay.

Kotsay should have been a fan favorite on the South Side - in fact he should be a bit over-rated. He's a dirt-wearing, do-what-it-takes grinder who comes up big when it matters (as his great pinch-hitter numbers show) and can help you win in a number of ways. As a bench lefty, late-inning 1B or corner OF, and occasional pinch runner, this guy could have brought a lot of value to a team coached by someone like Ozzie. And the Southside faithful would have loved him, like they over-valued Rowand.

Instead Kotsay was asked to be something he's never even pretended to hint at in his 10+ big league years and, as you 100% could have banked on, failed miserably and took the Sox down with him in the first few months.

The other thing I wouldn't do is pick up a guy who's already failed as a scrap heap reclamation project and already failed as a part-time DH/OF type in the most offensively-friendly park in the league like they did with Andruw Jones.

In fact, Jones ended up being about as good as you could have hoped - his average was bad and he struck out too much, but he offset by playing solid D, running well, hitting with good power, walking a bunch, and being an overall perfect 4th OF. Unfortunately, like with Kotsay, the Sox asked Jones to be more than that as a semi-regular DH and again, we're left thinking he was a bust when in reality he was just put in a position that asked too much of him.

So what now? In my discussion of Teahen at 3B I mentioned Bobby Abreu. Again, who knows if he's available or the Sox want him, but that's the type of player I'd be looking for - a legit left-handed bat who's capable of hitting in the middle of the order. And I don't mean is perfect for the middle of the order - Abreu no longer has much power - but that is s the type of professional hitter who pitchers respect and can do enough with the bat to drive in runs with consistency.

I'm fine with a guy who doesn't have the bigtime power, as long as he's a good average hitter who makes contact and drives the ball enough to bring in some runs. I'm also fine with a guy who can't hit for much average as long as he's not striking out all the time, gets on base at a good clip, and again, has enough of a resume and big swing left that opposing pitchers have to respect him.

Again, I'm also looking for good platoon guys. Find me that lefty who murders righties and can play a couple of positions respectably. Find me that righty who doesn't have much power but consistently hits over .300 against lefties while being able to hold his own in the field somewhere.

These guys exist - they float around the league on the periphery, getting one-year gigs with different teams every year, flashing good things for a bit and then coming back to Earth. But every once in a while one breaks out. His final numbers look great and you wonder where it came from. Often it's as simple as he was put in a place to succeed - he went to a team with a solid lineup and was simply asked to go out and feast on lefties or righties, nothing more.

The big thing for the Sox is going to be finding a lefty who can handle that. The Sox have plenty of righties, both in the rest of their lineup (Rios, maybe Konerko, Beckham, Alexei) and as DH candidates (Quentin, Viciedo). And it's not easy to find these kind of lefty bats, as they're in high demand given how most pitchers are righties.

But they're out there. And the Sox could creative and trade for one - never, ever sleep on Kenny in the trade market. Or get generous and sign somebody - if they let Paulie walk, that opens up a lot of money, and even if they don't there are free agents who get overlooked ever year (like Abreu and Dunn two years ago or Damon last season). Or maybe they just lick their wounds and learn from their mistakes last year, going back to the trash heap but this time being a bit more demanding of what they come away with it from. Maybe even bring in a couple of different options and see who steps up to earn the most at-bats.

I'll throw one last option out there - if the Sox do let Paulie go and/or trade Quentin, replacing them with more athletic and durable alternatives, then I wouldn't be opposed to using the DH in the old school fashion of a pure slugger. Without those guys around, you don't have as much of a need to sit your regulars. Also, without those guys, you're much less in danger of turning back into a beer league softball team just because of a single one-dimensional slugger in the DH slot.

DH is another one of those positions that will be very interesting to watch this off-season. The Sox really could go in any direction, from a traditional lumbering slugger to a handful of miscast role players. I just hope that the Sox see it as an opportunity to improve their club, being aggressive to find some great options, instead of a hole that just needs to be filled, falling back on whatever garbage they can easily get ahold of.



Next up: SPs

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part III (LF & CF)

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Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). I'll finish up the hitters with RF and DH tomorrow (here), then follow up with SPs and finally RPs.

Today - LF and CF.


LF Pierre

Few players are the subject of a greater difference of opinion between old schooler baseball game watchers and new school baseball numbers crunchers. While I certainly dig the value of all the new stats that are out there now, including the way it's forced "conventional baseball wisdom" to be challenged (still not nearly enough, I would say), I feel that stats can never tell you the whole story about a player's effect on the game in a day-in and day-out way.

Numbers can certainly tell you part of the story, some parts that you couldn't see w/o numbers. But just citing a bunch of stats to discount (or justify) a player's worth is asinine if you aren't also factoring in the massive amount of baseball value a player can have that won't be reflected in the numbers.

JP is the perfect example - the stat heads will sweat to you that he's a terrible lead-off hitter because he's not a great OBA guy. First off, these very stat heads are ignoring their own numbers - JP has a career OBA of .347 and has only once dipped below .330 in any single season. Those are respectable numbers for a guy w/o any power stroke (i.e. someone that pitchers don't feel the need to pitch around) and w/ amazing speed (i.e. someone pitchers are going to work hard from allowing to get to first).

JP is not some undisciplined free swinging speedster who "can't steal" first base. Taking away your non-top of the order guys (i.e. those too guy not to hit #3-5) and JP's OBA is right around average, if not better.

But even given that, stat heads still love to look at their computer simulations, ignore the reality of baseball, and claim a team would be better off with some lumbering high OBA doof at the top of the order rather than Pierre.

This ignores a number of things - first off, it's not easy to find guys with high OBAs to hit leadoff. Go through the league leaders and you'll find mostly guys hitting #3-5, not top of the order bats. When you finally do get down to some #1 and #2 hitters, you're talking franchise cornerstones who you could never acquire or fluke seasons you wouldn't want to bank on repeating.

In fact, check out the list of 450+ AB guys w/ an OBA above Pierre's .341 this year who could be reasonably considered #1 or #2 hitters - they all fall into those two above categories. It's possible I missed a guy or two, but for the most part, these are you 2010 top of the order guys who had a superior OBA to Pierre:

Gardner, McCutcheon, Ichiro, Crawford, Prado, Castro, AJackson, Torres, and Andrus - all guys that would cost a boatload to trade for, if the team would even listen. And as Crawford will prove this year - if they did reach free agency, they'd cost you a fortune.

The rest - KJohnson, Weeks, Infante, Damon, Abreu, Keppinger, and Pods - are either old, had a fluke year, or absurdly inconsistent... or maybe two or all three of those things.

The point? The next time someone tells you that Pierre is a terrible lead-off hitter, ask them to show you a superior one. If they point to someone in that first group, ask them how exactly the White Sox were supposed to get that guy. I mean I love Tim Lincecum, but his existence isn't proof that Mark Buehrle shouldn't be in our rotation.

So that about takes care of the nonsense about JP's OBA - what about appreciating the value he brings? How about a league best 68 steals? Or his 96 runs? Or my favorite - the 179 hits, 45 walks, and league leading 21 HBPs which add up to a whopping 245 times that JP got on base this season, just rearing to be driven in?

As I said before the season in my ode to JP (here) - the guy plays everyday, is wicked consistent, finds a way to get on base, wreaks havoc on pitchers, and will score runs.

This season JP did all of that. He appeared in 160 games, scored 14+ runs and stole 10+ bases in every month but one, had those 245 times on base, those 68 steals, and those 96 runs.

So what didn't Pierre do? He's not a great left-fielder, but he also doesn't hurt you like a lot of guys out there, even if he has no arm to speak of. JP clearly didn't hit for power, but that's not his role nor expectation. Really the only legit gripe you could have with him is that he struggled mightily throughout April, being a major reason the Sox were so slow out of the gate.

One of the reasons I'm such a big Pierre fan is because I think leadoff hitter is the single most under-valued role in all of baseball (followed closely by non-closers in the pen, tho that's changing, as I'll shortly discuss). But I can't praise the importance of a good lead-off hitter without also pointing out that a bad lead-off hitter can be hugely detrimental.

While Pierre did right the ship and end up with the same numbers he always gets, there's no question his slow start added to the long, painful stretch that lasted from Opening Day until June 9th. JP's colossal struggles in April (.193 average) put undue pressure on every other facet of the ballclub and the dismal results are telling.

So yeah, Pierre let us down a bit to start the year, but at the end of the day, he was crucial to our rebirth and ultimately ended up with enough regular contributions that this club should definitely have been able to make it to the post-season. And I expect him to do that very same thing again next year - at the end of 2011, JP will have the same .285 AVG, .340 OBA, 95 R, and 60 SB he always does.

And that kind of production is outstanding for a leadoff hitter. Especially those SBs - I've preached about this a ton before, but it bears repeating in any discussion of JP's value both looking back and down the road. A guy who can get on base and move around like Pierre can effects things a lot more than the simple numbers will show.

There's no question the guys after him see better pitches as pitchers are distracted and limited in what they can throw. There's no question JP's ability to turn an infield single, walk, or HBP into a double or even triple allows the offense to create runs even when it's not making good contact.

But most important, with Ozzie, the presence of a guy like JP in the lineup helps turns the focus from waiting for a 3-run homer to working to scratch across one run. And when you focus on doing everything you can for one run at each juncture, that's when you get a steady stream of runs that allows you a shot to win every single day. And that's a far better recipe for full-season success than the softball beer league approach of walks and big bombs, which will give you 12 runs one day and then 1 or 2 the next.

Stat heads would say go with the big homer approach - it'll net you 15 runs. They ignore that those types of big inning runs come in bunches and, thus disappear for long stretches. Me - I'd rather have 3-5 runs every day, allowing me a chance to find a way to win every time out.

So, after finally getting to see him in a White Sox uni, I'm as convinced as ever that there's no one I'd rather see leading off for the Sox next year than Pierre - any one else is either gonna be far worse for this team's success or unrealistic to actually attain. And I hope he does well enough that the Sox decide to give him another couple of years. I think Pierre takes care of himself well and will remain a productive lead off hitter for another 3-5 years. Given all the issues we've had at the leadoff spot, I'd love to see this guy locked into it for a while.


CF Rios

At one point Rios was hitting up over .300 with great power and looked like a perennial all-star worth every penny of the $12M+ per year he's owed. He came back to Earth in the second half, but in all Rios has proven to me that while he's a bit overpaid, it's not by much. The fact is that CFs who can play good defense (which he can), have good arms (which he does), can hit for power and flash speed (which his 21 HRs and 34 steals attest to), and will hit around .285 are well worth having around, especially during their prime (which he is, at 29).

Look at his carer numbers, his year-by-years, they both tell you the same thing - that this season's stat line is what you can hope for out of Rios pretty much every year. And I'm plenty happy with that. Ideally the Sox can find a hitter a bit more capable in the #3 slot and let Rios be a nice bit of speed back at the #5 or #6 slot.

However, the Sox can survive with him as a softer hitting #3 than you'd like both because they've got production further down in the lineup in the form of guys like Beckham and Alexei, and because having speed in the middle of the order creates a lot more ways to score.

In all, I think Rios is one of those guys you head into the year knowing what you're getting and he pretty much delivers. He may be a bit up and down as he does, but by October you'll have the same set of stats - .290 with 20 HRs, 85 R, 85 RBI and 25 steals... give or take. From my plus defensive CF? Yes please.

It was a risky move by Kenny taking on all that salary when Rios was strugglin for Toronto last season and it looked brutal when the kid came over and couldn't even hit .200 down the stretch. But the way Rios played this season and what we've seen from him in the past, I think this will go down as a solid move by our GM. Not amazing - Rios is making some pretty hefty dollars - but definitely something that will help this club win.


Tomorrow - RF and DH (here).

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part II (2B, 3B, & SS)

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Tuesday I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. Tuesday I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here). I'll also get to LF and CF (here), before finishing with RF and the DH (here). From there, it's the SPs and then RPs to wrap us up.

Today, it's on to the 2B, 3B, and SS positions.


2B Beckham

Talk about a sophomore slump - after winning The Sporting News' Rookie of the Year, this guy was hitting .208 as late as July 10th. Offensively, I think few things were more responsible for the Sox horrendous early season than first, Ozzie making Beckham his #2 hitter, and the second, Beckham responding with such a sustained dreadful performance in the role.

I'll go to my grave in the belief that if Kotsay had been slotted into the #2 slot (spelled by Vizquel against lefties, until Vizquel took over the job on an everyday basis when he became the regular 3B), the whole start of the year would have been different. I think Kotsay would have responded well to being asked to make contact, be patient as JP tried to run, and occasionally lay down bunts or hit behind the runner.

The trickle down effect would have meant that Kotsay wasn't a giant zero in the middle of your lineup (a role he NEVER should have been asked to fill) and that Beckham wouldn't have had the pressure of producing from the top of the lineup. Even had Beckham started off just as slowly, doing so from the #9 slot would have made it much less harmful to the team, not to mention taking the focus off Beckham and giving him more room to work through it.

As it was, Beckham did eventually get moved out of the #2 slot and did eventually bounce back to the form we all expected after his fine rookie season. His second half line - .310 AVG, .380 OBA, .500 SLG. Um, yes please.

Every ballplayer goes through slumps, especially youngsters without a great deal of professional experience. But I think Beckham has learned, probably for the first time in his entire baseball career, that you can have a sustained slump and yet recover to reach the same levels of success you always have had.

What do I expect from Beckham next year? Sure, I'm always a bit optimistic, but something not too far off that second half line. Heck, let's be a bit conservative - I'm still seeing a .290, .365, .470 level of production, which would be outstanding for a 2B.

Especially a 2B who's shown himself to be very good defensively. Whether it was the right call to move him away from 3B, I'm not sure. But accepting he wasn't gonna play at the hot corner for the Sox longterm, then 2B looks like a great move. Beckham showed amazing range, a good turn, and just an overall strong feel out there. Now with a full season under his belt, with his offensive woes hopefully behind him, this kid might very well be looking at Gold Gloves in the future. Why not? It's as much about offensive production as defensive, and Beckham definitely has the skills to be as good at both as anyone in the AL.

In all, the Sox are looking as good at 2B as they have since Ray Durham, a extremely underrated Southsider, showed himself capable as a 24-year old in 1996. And there's no question Beckham provides the potential to be the kind of impact 2B that the Sox haven't had since Nellie Fox in 59 and 60. In all, expect him to deliver somewhere in between Durham's occasional all-star and Fox' Hall of Fame levels for years to come.


3B Vizquel/Teahen/Morel/Viciedo

In addition to recently exercising Castro's option, the Sox also quietly brought back the 44-year old Vizquel for another year. Sure, there's a bit of a Russian roulette thing with any player who's near or above 40, but can you argue with giving him a bit over $1M after the way he basically single-handedly saved their season?

There is no question in my mind that Vizquel solidifying both 3B defensively and the #2 slot in the lineup with above-average play in each was the single biggest one-person impact that swung this club from a disaster to a contender.

So yeah, it's possible that Vizquel has nothing left, that his .276 AVG and .341 OBA will plummet next season as Father Time finally catches up to him. But for the money they're giving Omar, he's well worth the risk, given that you gotta have faith he'll at least be a serviceable utility IF, pinch runner, and spot bunter. Not to mention a great clubhouse presence and invaluable resource for the budding IF superstars Beckham and Alexei, and even Viciedo and Morel.

Speaking of Viciedo and Morel, it'll be interesting to see if either of these kids gets a shot next year. As things stand now, there isn't a clear cut starting 3B, 1B, or DH, and all three spots could be, at least partially, held open for these kids.

So what could we expect? Well who ever knows with prospects. Viciedo is a beefy 21-year old who showed real power at both AAA and in the bigs, but also was able to hit .308 in 104 big league ABs and .276 in 343 in Charlotte. His problem is that he lacks plate discipline and most analysts would suggest his 25 to 2 K:BB ratio means Viciedo will eventually be exposed by regular at-bats at the big league level.

Maybe, but it's also possible he'll refine his approach as he matures and that his natural talents will carry him in the meantime. Especially given that Viciedo's making a decent chunk of change, I could see the Sox trying to find some way to get this kid ABs next year. Whether that will be at 3B, where there are questions about his defense, or 1B, somewhere he's not too used to, or in a mix along with some DH, is one of the more interesting storylines to follow up until Opening Day.

As for Morel, word is that he's a solid defensive 3B, even a really good one. He struggled to hit for much average in his 65 big league at-bats, but he did show some pop and his AAA numbers certainly pop out - .320 AVG, .503 SLG.

The fact that he can handle the leather at third certainly makes Morel a viable option next season, especially because he's so cheap as a 1st year guy. Given the way he has consistently hit minor league pitching (.305 in 1200 ABs over the past three seasons), I could get on board with an off-season plan that has Morel given first shot at 3B, with Vizquel or even Viciedo as the back-up plan.

The one thing I can't get behind and, thankfully it seems clear the White Sox agree, is any more Mark Teahen at 3B for more than a token game every few weeks. Kenny has way more good moves than bad on his resume, but signing Mark Teahen to a deal that pays him $4.75M and and $5.5M in the next two years when Teahen had never shown himself to be anything but a vet's minimum-level worthy utility guy is a real blunder.

Now, with the Sox wanting to contend and pushing hard up against their payroll ceiling thanks to mostly well-spent money on worthwhile assets, that $10M plus is the kind of cash the Sox could really use right now. Especially with the emergence of Viciedo and Morel as youngsters worth getting ABs for on the corners and a logjam of talent already in the corner OF.

The worst part about the move was that it was so obviously terrible at the time (as I detailed in repeated posts last Winter and Spring). Teahen had never shown anything outside of a fluke half years ago in KC. Just committing to him as your everyday 3B for a season was a bad enough decision, but to now be saddled with his very sizable salary for 2 more years when you had NO pressure to do so?!

Remember, Teahen was merely arbitration eligible and could have been signed for right around the same $3.75M they gave him last year, of which $1M+ was already paid for by the Royals. So why on Earth did Kenny, without seeing a single game in a Sox uni to convince him that Teahen was anything more than the clear mediocrity he'd been for years in KC, lock himself into such a hefty pay-out for this guy?

So what's that mean now? Well, you've got yourself a decent enough 1B-3B-LF-RF left-handed bench option for about $4M more than it should cost you each of the next two years. From a purely on-field perspective, Teahen could serve a decent bench role. Ignoring the finances, your baseball team is better with a flexible talent like Teahen to fill some gaps for short periods, providing Ozzie with a host of lineup and substitution options.

But Sox fans and the front office will still be counting the days until his salary comes off the books in two years.

The one upside possibility with Teahen - he could be thrown into a trade to secure an overpaid salary dump from another team. So let's say that the Angels want to get out from as much of Bobby Abreu's $9M salary in both 2011 and 12 as they can. The Sox see him as a nice left-handed DH/occasional OF option, but at closer to $5M per.

Bam, the Sox deal Teahen for Abreu straight up. The Angels get a decent role player and $5M in savings each of the next two seasons, while the Sox get a still productive left-handed bat with some speed and OBA for the $5M bump in team payroll they felt he was worth.

Now I have NO idea if the Angels want to get out from under Abreu or if the Sox have any interest in him these days. It's just one of many examples of the way Teahen could be used in a deal to net the Sox a needed piece that they otherwise wouldn't have spent to get. These type of deals happen all the time and when done right, can really help both sides. Especially in an era when so many teams are trying to cut payroll, the Sox could turn the mistake of signing Teahen into a valuable roster move.


SS Alexei

I don't think he finished out the year this way, but at one point around mid-season Alexei was the best fielding player in all of baseball. Looking at the various stats that the stat world views as a respected measurement of defense, Alexei not only was the best defensive SS, but the best defensive player relative to his position of anybody out there.

Seeing him play in the past, you both can believe that and find it surprising. I mean the kid has always had a cannon and good range, plus a nose for the great play. The potential was so obviously there for great things. However, Alexei never showed the head or commitment to play with any consistency and had actually devolved to a point where you felt he was a negative in the field.

I'm not sure what clicked this year, but I have to imagine two things came into play - a second year at short stop, his natural position, and the presence of arguably the greatest defensive SS of all time, Omar Vizquel, there to tutor him.

I think the emergence of both Beckham and Alexei as viable Gold Glove candidates had at least something to do with watching, talking with, and learning from Omar everyday for an entire season. For that reason I'm pumped that he'll be around again in 2011.

Especially because there are few things I think are as valuable to a team as great defense up the middle. This year, for the first time in a long time, the Sox had that, and they won because of it. Sure, their terrible start offensively and in the rotation followed up by the injury-plagued pen meltdown kept them from a playoff spot, but 88 wins is a respectable total and one based in large part on the great play of Alexei, Beckham, and Rios up the middle.

Offensively, I think we can count on two things from Alexei - a terrible April and then a pretty steady .285 and 20 HR level of production the rest of the way. It's been three years on the South Side for him now and all three years show the same exact splits - horrible April and around .280+ average in the rest of the months.

Out of a SS as good defensively as any in the game? I'll take it. Now that you know he can't hit in April, you can slot him in the #9 spot, give him a bunch of days off to keep him fresh for later, and then reap the rewards once May rolls around.

All I really want to see this kid get better at is running the bases. He's as flat out fast as anyone out there, but Alexei just doesn't have the right approach. Hopefully with Pierre now settled in, he can provide a bit of tutelage to Alexei on what it takes to become a good base-stealer. Even if Alexei can just develop an average approach, with his speed and Ozzie's aggressive approach, he could easy go from the 13 steals in 21 attempts-type runners he's been in each of his first three seasons to a 25 out of 33 level.

In all, you've got to be encouraged by the young, dynamic talent the Sox have on the infield and what it can mean to their success. 3B will be interesting to see unfold, but at least the Sox are looking at a number of different viable options, instead of hoping for some miracle (e.g. Teahen morphing into not being a bum).


Monday - LF and CF (here).

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part I (C & 1B)

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The Sox didn't demand our interest until mid-June, after the Hawks had finished up and they finally got all the right pieces in places, producing as they should. And they stopped deserving our interest around mid-August, when the Bears showed up and the Sox lost must-win series after must-win series without really much drama along the way.

So I don't think many Sox fans were too up to speed on what really happened in 2010. I think it kind of will end up as a bit of a forgotten year. And for about 3.5 months of the season (everything outside of early June to late July), that's not a bad thing. But, to understand what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. Today, we'll start with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as we look at C and 1B. I'll follow up with 2B, 3B, and SS (here), then go to LF and CF(here), before finishing with RF and the DH (here). From there, it's on to the SPs and then RPs.

C: AJ and Castro

AJ was definitely one of the culprits behind the slow start, both in his inability to hit anything (average entering June 9th, i.e. the night the Sox got hot: .219, with an OBA and SLG that were just as terrible) and for whatever blame he deserves in the failures of the starting rotation to show the consistency they should have.

The good news is in the second half, AJ was the AJ he's always been, hitting .299 to suggest the first few months were just a long slump and not a sign of significant decline due to his advancing age. More encouraging was that AJ, a notoriously bad RISP performer, hit .300 with runners to be driven in this season (despite the terrible first half).

It's not always clear how much credit or blame catcher's deserve, but the pitching staff also did settle down and put up post-May numbers more along what you'd expect, with the lion's share of pitching issues in the second half stemming from bullpen injuries. So the evidence seems to suggest that AJ handled the pitchers like he always has, especially once the team got out of its funk, and that for the near future, you should expect more of the same.

As for Castro, the back-up catcher role on a team with a guy like AJ only left 115 ABs (actually 130, given Castro missed the start of the year), but he definitely did the job with some nice pop and solid work behind the plate. The past two seasons Castro has had a slightly higher ERA behind the plate than AJ, but nothing so stark to think that he isn't doing a good job for a reserve catcher. In all, this guy is about as good as you'd hope out of this slot, especially this season, with his .278 average and impressive .504 SLG %.

In all, I'd say the Sox wouldn't be in a bad position if they were able to bring back Castro and AJ next season. AJ made $6.25M last year, but he definitely won't get that again. The Giants resigned Bengie Molina to a 1 year, $4.5M deal last off-season, and I'd imagine that's the ceiling AJ can hope for, given Molina is a renowned clubhouse asset while AJ is a personality a lot of teams won't touch (I'd say to their own detriment).

In news that not many followed, the Sox actually exercised Castro's $1.2M option (instead of a $200k buy-out), meaning their back-up slot is set for next year. I applaud that move, but hope the Sox don't have any delusions about Castro being a reasonable fall-back if they decide to let AJ go and test out Flowers.

Flowers just hasn't proven he's ready, hitting a paltry .220 in AAA this season (altho he did show good pop and a great ability to get on base). I'd much rather see Flowers given another Spring Training to learn a bit more about the big league pitchers and then a few more months of AAA work to get himself going in the right direction before he's brought up in a time-share before being handed the reigns in 2012.

So I'm definitely bringing back AJ for around that $4M, one-year deal that Molina got last year and if I'm AJ, I'm taking that. He's too old to get anything much longer, especially in this day and age of impressive Free Agent spending responsibility by MLB teams, and without any power, his reputation issues, and a middling defensive/pitcher handler reputation, AJ should be happy to get a fulltime starting gig for still very solid money with a franchise that he's done well with.

This type of one-year deal has two other advantages for the Sox - it keeps them from having to go out and find some other capable big league catcher to fill so many of AJ's innings and allows the Sox to gradually push AJ aside for Flowers (if they're still in contention) or even deal him for some token piece (if they're out of it). There's always a contending club that can use a World Series winning, left-handed catcher like AJ.

If the Sox do part ways with AJ, I'm going to be very curious what direction they go in. Catcher is never a deep position and rarely do teams feel they have an expendable big-league starter around. I guess I wouldn't be too heart-broken if they got a strong defensive catcher to share the duties with Castro until Flowers emerges, but only if it's at a significant cost saving over AJ. Otherwise, bring back AJ for a year, even two if necessary (again, the guy will remain tradeable) and focus your off-season efforts on more pressing needs.


1B Konerko

I think we'll see over the next few seasons that this was Konerko's final hurrah as a premier slugger, the one last rejuvenation season that a lot of good players stumble into along their slow but sure decline. The more cynical out there will credit this great year to his status as an impending free agent, but Sox fans know Paulie takes his personal failures WAY too hard to ever allow any room for a little something extra in the walk year.

The simple fact was that Paulie just had some good timing. After being a 40-110 guy from 04-06, Paulie had taken a step back to a still potent 30-90 level the past three seasons. Somehow he rediscovered his 40-110 stuff for this year and the Sox were in need of every bit of it.

However, for the next 3 years, I think you've got to be content if Paulie can consistently give you 30-90 production. 40-110 is not gonna happen and to be honest, 20-75 is probably more likely than a continuation of what he was this season. Remember, Paulie is a guy who's already had a couple of disastrous seasons to his credit right during his prime.

The question is whether one retarded GM can't come to the same obvious conclusions that your trusty Sox blogger just did. Cause all it takes is one idiot to talk himself into Paulie being a legit 40-110 guy and giving that kind of money for 3-5 years, despite his 35th birthday coming up next season.

But I'm just not seeing that. Not when Adam Dunn is gonna take one big spender off the market, Prince Fielder possibly on the block, and guys like DLee, Aubrey Huff, Lance Berkman, and Jim Thome out there competing for the same 1B/DH slots. I think Paulie fits somewhere between the $12.5M 1-year option that BoSox just exercised on Big Papi and the $4M and $6M 1-year deals that Huff and Adam LaRoche signed last off-season.

Again, unless someone is an idiot (always possible, I don't see Paulie over $10M per, certainly not for more than a year. I think he's got to expect down near maybe $8-9M. Every off-season at least one highly viable players comes off a good season, over-prices himself, and then is left to scramble for whatever he can get. It's possible that Paulie will be that guy and we see him sign a one year deal somewhere for $5-7M next February.

But if he's not an idiot, I think the Sox should be able to get him back for right around $8-9M, with the issue being whether the Sox would commit to three years or Paulie would accept two. If the Sox are too cheap to give him $8-9M or too misguided to give him two years, they're making a big mistake. Paulie will remain productive enough and is a good fit for this franchise and clubhouse. Replacing him with someone else - a must if you want to compete next season - will not be easy in either free agency or the trade market, nor do they have any obvious in-house options.

The simple fact is that the Sox can't afford to lose another legit, proven slugger. I don't subscribe to the idea that they need to reverse course and go back to a softball lineup with some aging boomer at DH again, but if you aren't gonna go that route, you sure can't then also jettison your slugging 1B for some mediocre free agent or unproven prospect.

On the other side of things, I'm gonna be upset with Paulie if the Sox make a legit $8M+ offer for two years or more and he doesn't bite. Sure, he can frame it as wanting to be closer to his family, but that's a fair market offer from a team that's committed to you through thick and thin - it'd be a real slap in the face if Paulie walks away from that, given that this is a team capable of great things in the next year or two.

As for the options if the Sox don't re-sign Paulie? I really have no idea. All the rumors are that the Sox were hot for Adam Dunn at the deadline, but does that interest continue given the big money he's expected to demand? Ditto with Prince Fielder - the Sox supposedly kicked the tires there, but do they actually have the juice to pry away such a young star from the Brewers?

The Sox do have an extra young frontline starting pitching arm to dangle, but would the Sox give up three more affordable Floyd years or two more affordable Danks ones? And would Milwaukee really do it for just one year of Ed Jackson?

Of course, there are other possibilities out there and don't discount Kenny doing something no one saw coming. In fact, that's probably the one thing you can count on - Kenny will pull off some deal this off-season that nets him somebody that hadn't been rumored. Maybe that's the direction Kenny will go at 1B, tho I can't even begin to guess at a worthy #3 or #4 hitting replacement who's actually available.

But hey, that's half the fun of a GM like Kenny, so keep an eye out.

Tomorrow - 2B, 3B, and SS (here).

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