The Carlos Question

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Last week, (here) I laid out the expected Sox 25-man roster based on what they've got under contract now.

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm

I ended the post saying that there was one more big thought the above lay-out inspired and today I share it with you:

-Rumors flew around this weekend that Quentin was now available. But then Kenny came out and said that while he knew he needed to upgrade the pen, he would not do so by taking away from his starting lineup. He didn't think that made sense to weaken one area to help another.

I totally disagree. Look at that lineup and you realize that CQ is not necessary at all. Paulie-Dunn-Rios are a plenty good 3-4-5 combo, while after that AJ and Alexei are more than respectable 6-7 options. This team has enough power that it can replace Quentin with a low cost option, maybe even a platoon, of the type of OF vagabonds you find floating around.

I'm not talking about garbage scrap heapers like Andruw Jones (who was respectable last season, if a bit over-exposed). I mean proven big league bats who can play good outfield defense at a few different spots, move a little bit on the bases, and combine just enough average, power, and OBA to warrant semi-regular at-bats in the back of your lineup.

Think about what happens if you move Quentin:

1) You get a bunch of assets back.

This is a guy who's proven he can put up MVP numbers in the bigs. Sure the reality of CQ is what we got in 09-10 (30 HR power, 10 RBI production, low average, solid OBA, and lots of injuries), but the fact that Quentin's 2008 exists jumps his value significantly. There just aren't that many guys who've shown they can do that, even inconsistently.

On top of that, CQ is young and under team control for another two seasons. Most teams can't afford market prices for middle of the order bats, so the chance to slot CQ for maybe $5M and $8M the next few seasons is pretty attractive to most clubs. Especially because he's a class guy who's played both left and right - there aren't a lot of things to give you pause aside those nagging injuries. But they haven't cost CQ a whole season or anything, and you're not tied into a big, longterm contract or anything.

I could definitely see Quentin bringing back a nice young major league ready bullpen arm with good potential and maybe another prospect or two to help re-stock the system a bit. Teams always have young arms and prospects - sure they're valuable as ever now, but aside a stud young starting pitcher, nothing is more valuable than a cheap young middle of the order producer.

So find that promising young pitching prospect who isn't slated to be a starter but looks like (or even has already proven that) he's able to get outs in the 6th or 7th innings. Build a deal around him and whatever other minor league assets you can get. The trade market for a guy like Quentin most definitely exists, as Quentin's name is always coming up in trade rumors, and apparently that's not of the Sox doing. Especially this off-season, when there aren't much for big bats in free agency nor many viable trade options.

2) You upgrade your OF defense and possibly find a better 2-hole option.

By every measure Quentin is a pretty bad OF. He was serviceable in left, using his plus arm and the general mediocrity of this position across baseball to be OK, but in right the numbers suggest he's hurting you a bit out there. It wasn't terribly obvious when watching him, but it also wasn't obvious watching Dye in 2009, but by every metric he was about the worst RF in baseball that season.

So it's easy to discount the value of a good defensive OF or not realize the harm of a poor one, but given the Sox investment in starting pitching, this team needs good defense to be successful. Your starters aren't gonna fill their potential if you don't have guys behind them who can get the job done. And upgrading your RF defense - fairly easy to do from Quentin to some journeyman, given that you can expect to get good D if you aren't demanding a great bat - will make a real difference.

On top of that, it shouldn't be difficult to find one of these plus OF defender types w/o a real high impact bat but with the ability to make contact, put down bunts, work the count, and hit just well enough when facing only righties or lefties to fulfill the role of a #2 hitter. These guys are generally platoon types or 4th OFs, especially in the NL, and very much exist in some abundance.

3) You free up money to spend on your pen.

I gotta figure CQ is gonna jump from $3.2M to $5-6M, maybe more. The guy drove in 87 runs last year, despite missing a bunch of time, and has that tremendous 2008 on his resume. I can't say I'm great at guessing arbitration numbers, but certainly it won't be less than $5M or so, and could be up near $7M or even $8M.

The Sox know about what number they're looking at to keep CQ and have built that into their payroll math. So when they say they're tapped, that includes the $5-$8M they are going to have spend on CQ next year. But if they deal him, suddenly that money is freed up. You figure you can find a decent platoon of solid defensive RFs capable of hitting #2 for about $3-4M total, giving you another $2-4M to go and spend on the pen.

That could mean another top notch arm like Putz last year, or it could be a couple of solid veteran journeymen, like a respectable 6th-7th inning spot righty (think Vizcaino from the 05 team) coupled with a 2nd tier lefty (think Marte from the 05 team).


However the Sox would spend the money, the simple fact is that as the pen stands right now, the Sox are set up for disaster in 2011. I know everyone's all pumped for this lineup, to have AJ and Paulie back while somehow also adding Dunn. On paper the Sox look amazing. But the pen is the easiest area to overlook when analyzing a team and yet by far the most crucial to getting to and advancing in the playoffs.

Think 2006 - that's what I see in this team right now. A ton of offense. A great lineup of SPs. And a couple of pen arms you can rely on mashed together with a whole bunch of question marks.

So what happened in 2006? We got off to an incredible first half, as good as any team in baseball at the All-Star Break, looking like a real perennial power. But then the pen started having issues and suddenly everything else fell apart. The lineup and rotation had too much pressure on them w/ the way the pen was blowing games and ultimately the second half was a disaster, netting the most disappointing 90-win season in Sox history.

What really spooks me about that prediction is that 2006 was far from the only season that the pen melted down in the second half. My brother made the point that there seems to be something to how Ozzie uses his guys that leaves them susceptible to injuries or ineffectiveness shortly after the All-Star Break. It happened last year and also was a concern in 2008, even tho we fought through it to win the division. And while we weren't much for competitive in 07 or 09, the pens were definitely worse late in the year than early on.

Some of the solution lies in Ozzie learning to better use his pen early on. Don't always go 7-8-9. Don't always go to your stud set-up guy in every sign of trouble, nor bring out your closer whenever the game isn't a laugher in the 9th. Protect these guys every chance you can get, work hard to get them strings of days off to really allow for some recovery in-season. And develop the lesser guys so later in the year they're experienced in dealing with some of the tough situations that arise.

But the real foundation to answering the Sox bullpen problems comes from loading up on as many capable arms as possible. As it stands, the Sox have two sure-things in their pen - Thornton and Santos. And I don't mean sure-things in terms of effectiveness - only Mariano Rivera is a sure thing bullpen arm. Everyone else it's year-to-year, outing-to-outing.

I mean sure-thing in that they will be crucial parts of the Sox relief staff in 2011. Otherwise, it's all up in the air. Personally I'd like to see Thornton closing and Sale as the 7th/8th inning lefty option. I think Sale showed himself fully capable of the job last year and I don't see any reason to mess with success.

The argument would be that the Sox have a lot of money tied up in their rotation and no guarantee these guys will be around longterm, so you've got to develop that next generation of starters. But I'm not buying that totally. Sure there's some truth to it and if I could be sure Sale would be an effective starter, I'd say let's do it.

But I'm not at all sure of that - the kid hasn't started ever at the professional level. So far Sale's been purely a reliever in the bigs and minors, and he's done a tremendous job of it. Why fix what ain't broke? Especially because relievers are tremendously valuable - as I said, they're so unpredictable that if you find one - like Thornton - who delivers every night for seasons on end, he can be just as important to your success as a middle rotation starter.

So I'm sticking with Sale in the pen, using Thornton to close, and letting Santos work a 7th/8th role. But I'm also making sure I get another possible 7th/8th back in a Quentin deal, and then using the savings there to bring in another reliable 7th/8th option or a pair of 6th/7th options that might just have 7th/8th upside.

My theory with a pen is that you aren't going to get what you expect, so you need to have a ton of different options to make up for the injuries and ineffectiveness that nearly every team in baseball goes through in its pen over the course of a 162 game season (not to mention playoffs). Think about 2005 - Shingo flames out early, so Hermanson takes over. He gets hurt, so Jenks steps in. But it didn't end there - Hermanson's move out of the set-up role only worked because Politte was able to step into it. And when Marte proved unreliable, the Sox couldn't have sniffed a series title without Cotts there to dominate as a 7th/8th lefty.

Sure, a lot of that was luck - Politte and Cotts didn't have another good season the rest of their careers after being as untouchable as any set-up men I've ever seen. But Politte had closed before and Cotts came with a strong pedigree. While they initially were counted on only as spot guys in middle relief, there were some signs that they might just have what it takes to step up if need be.

That's what Kenny needs to assemble - a pen that not only looks good in it's closer and set-up spots, but also has 2nd and even 3rd options for every role to deal with whatever troubles come the Sox way. It ain't easy to do it, but if the Sox don't get creative and figure it out, then


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