Throughout their history, the Sox weren't much of a power-hitting team at all. Some of it was their cavernous park, some of it was a pitching & defense strategy, and some of it was simply long strings of management that didn't develop or try to attain big hitters.
Until Big Frank came along, the best the Sox had for big boppers were a few (but not too many) respectable years out of the likes of Dick Allen and Beltin Bill Melton in the 70s. It was so bad that Melton's 154 homers (over seven seasons) was the team career leader when I was born in 1979. They also had never had a 40-HR hitter until the 90s.
But Frank and a more cozy New Comiskey Park ushered in a new era (helped along by the proliferation of power in the game leaguewide, driven by the shameful steroid era). Frank, Albert Belle, Paulie, Dye, Thome, and recently Quentin have all threatened to lead the league in homers while providing a seamless stretch of middle-of-the-order producers as good as any in baseball.
While the Sox have had their up and downs since the 90s began, the one constant has been at least one, if not two or even three guys in the heart of the lineup fully capable of 40 HRs and 110 RBI.
But heading into 2011, as I detailed in my breakdown of all the position players, the Sox were in a place to not be guaranteed even a single legit, respected middle of the order bat. Thome and Dye were sent packing last year (and really, at this stage of their career are no longer 40-110 threats), Paulie is a coveted free agent, and Quentin is neither untouchable nor guaranteed to be healthy or productive enough to warrant inclusion in that potential 40-110 group.
Enter Adam Dunn. Few players in all of baseball have mashed as productively or steadily as this guy. He's just a pure numbers machine, so that's how I'm gonna break him down:
- 1 - Times over the last 7 seasons he's failed to drive in 100 runs. Just once (when he drove in 92 in 2006). This includes back-to-back 100 RBI years for Washington, in a pitcher's park and on a soft offense. Barring an injury, this guy will be the heart of the order contributor every team needs.
- 2 - The number of years since becoming a big league regular that he's failed to play in 158 games. And in one of those exceptions he played 152. Yep, pretty much every single year you can expect Dunn to go out and play nearly every single day. There's an incredible value to that kind of durability.
- 3 - Positions Dunn can play aside DH. Word was that Dunn wanted to stay in the NL so he could play in the field, so my guess is that part of the Sox' successful sales pitch is that Dunn was told he'd play some defense. I hope that happens - while he's a subpar defender by every measure, I still buy into the value of getting some guys regular days off in the DH slot w/o losing their bat in the lineup. That Dunn could go out to 1B, left, or even right for 6-7 innings until you bring in your defensive replacement allows the Sox greater use of their DH. Having Dunn semi-regularly involved in the field should be an asset.
- 4 - Years on his deal, at just $14M. For a guy who's this hotly desired (he was on everyone's radar last trade deadline and rumored to be going to a ton of teams this off-season), having to only commit to him for 4 years and at the very reasonable amount of $14M per is outstanding. Dunn will be 31 next season and 34 when his deal expires. That's certainly likely to be the tail end of his prime, but his prime nonetheless. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he hits 40 and drives in 110 from start to finish on this contract. And $14M is the basement you can expect to sign a proven slugger in his prime, for sure (that was the number bandied around for the older and far less consistent Paulie).
- 5 - Times Dunn has batted below .250. Dunn's game has its holes - one of those is hitting for average. His best season-ending average was .267, so it's not like there's a lot of hope for a fluke good year or two in this regard. The closest thing you can get to an encouraging stat is that he's hit .260 or better in three of the last four seasons. He did have a year down at .215 way back in 2003, but likely pencil him in for .235 to .265 and don't stress over it.
- 6 - Years that Dunn's OBA has been over .380. One reason you don't stress over the low average is because he makes up for a lot of those outs by drawing a boatload of walks. Dunn's such a threat that pitchers will gladly work around him. That's huge for the Sox, who will have the type of guys who can drive in runners in their 5th, 6th, and 7th slots thanks to a team with RBI potential at nearly every position.
- 7 - The number of seasons he's belted 38+ HRs. Mind you one of the three times he failed to do so was his rookie year, when he had 19 HRs in only 66 games. And another was his third year, when he only played in 116 games and still hit 27. Since then seven straight years of 38+, including each of the last two seasons in Washington's big park. The Cell should treat him very well.
- 8 - Times that Dunn has averaged over 1K/G. As mediocre as his average is, Dunn's biggest weakness by far is the huge amount of Ks he racks up. He's a hard-swinger who pitchers can and will beat. But the one reason I'm not too worried about this fact is because of the previously mentioned RBI totals. Ks are no different than any other out when no one's on base or there's two down. But they kill you when you need contact to bring a guy in, especially when your best run producer is up. That Dunn so consistently drives in so many runs, especially these past two seasons in Washington, tells me his Ks aren't having a hugely negative effect on his role as a run-producer.
- 9 - I got nothing of great relevance for this number, so I'll use this space to point out that Dunn is a very streaky player. He'll carry the Sox for weeks on end and then be a giant hole in the lineup for the next few weeks. The Sox have a pretty deep and dynamic lineup that should be able to pick up the slack when Dunn does disappear. But I hope Kenny is still working to provide another legit middle of the order bat of some sort. Because if Quentin gets hurt (like he always does) at the same time Dunn goes into the tank, the Sox are gonna be hurting in the heart of the lineup. Give me one more professional bat to throw in there and I think the Sox can overcome those stretches. If not, I fear a team much like last year - very up and down.
- 10 - Times he's missed the postseason in 10 seasons. This would be disheartening if he hadn't been buried in small market Cincinnati and slowly rebuilding Washington for most of his career. It's not like he's been a part of a bunch of high expectation disappointments, near misses, or late-season meltdowns. Dunn has just been on teams that were bad from start to finish and nothing he could do was gonna change that. Only one time has he finished on a team who wasn't under .500, and that was only after a late-season trade to the Dbacks three years ago. The pessimist would point out he's never had to deliver under pressure or down the stretch. Me, the eternal optimist, says that Dunn is a guy might be inspired to new heights now that he's surrounded by real talent and part of an organization that's tasted the sweet nectar of a title very recently.
I just see so little downside here. Dunn may be up and down throughout the season, but at the end of the year he's gonna have the same numbers as always. He's got not injury history at all and with a contract that takes him only through the age of 34, I don't see a lot of room for decline. On top of all that, for a slugger of Dunn's caliber, $14M is really the bare minimum I would have expected the Sox to have to pay. Especially given that his acquisition didn't require the loss of any significant assets (tho they will have to forfeit their 1st round pick, which may be replace if Paulie leaves anyway).
I'm pretty pumped... this was an outstanding way to start the Hot Stove for the Sox. They still need to find someone to play 1B who won't embarrass himself hitting #3-6. And they need to fill their hole at catcher (I'm not loving this discussion of Olivo - he's produced OK, but isn't it telling that no team has bothered to keep him around for more than a year or two? Your catcher is in command of so much out there, do you really want a guy that a bunch of teams, including mediocre ones, haven't thought was worth investing in?).
I haven't even touched on their pitching, with question marks out of Peavy and his effect on the whole rest of the rotation, what to do with Chris Sale (I say leave him in the pen unless you're sure he's gonna be a frontline starter fairly soon), and how to retool the pen in light of last season's late year collapse.
But so far, so good. Dunn is a worthy heir to the recent line of Sox sluggers Big Frank, Belle (whom I hated, but he did produce numbers, even if they were after we were out of it every year), Paulie, Dye, and Thome. He's gonna slot into this lineup and produce like always and we're gonna be damn happy Southsiders because of it.
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