Dunn, AJ, Paulie... and then?

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After making one of the first big splashes of the off-season with the Dunn signing, Kenny wasted no time bringing AJ back into the fold and after a bit of back-and-forth and showing some impressive creativity on the Sox side and flexibility on Konerko's side, the team was able to keep the Captain around for another three seasons as well.

Where does this leave the Sox for the rest of the off-season? Apparently, tapped out financially, which seems to make sense after giving Dunn $13M.

The savings you got from dumping Linebrink ($2M), Jenks ($7.5M), Kotsay ($1.5M), and Freddy ($1M), the drop in Pierre's salary ($1.5M), and the creative structuring of AJ's contract (only $2M in 2011, after $6.25 in 2010) is mostly eaten up by contractual raises to Peavy ($1M), Rios ($2.3M), Alexei ($1.5M), Teahen ($1M - to $4.75M... yes, we're paying this bum almost $5M!), Floyd ($2.25M), and Thornton ($1M), plus the impending Arbitration raises that Danks, Quentin, and possibly even Pena (more on him later) will get.

Looking at those numbers, it's impressive they even found $13M for Dunn, so I believe Kenny when he says that as things stand today, they've got no more room to make any significant adds.

So how does that leave our Sox looking, assuming that they don't make any more moves?

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm


My thoughts:

-Personally not a fan of Becks in the #2 slot, especially behind Pierre, as I think he's far better off further down where he can just hit, instead of needing to wait for Pierre to steal, then need to hit behind the runner, execute hit-and-runs, and so on. This kid struggled once already - let's put Beckham in a spot to succeed, really prove himself just as a hitter, before asking him to fill a challenging and vital role.

Let's not repeat the hard-learned lessons of last season's horrendous start, please. Especially after seeing a good, but not unbeatable Texas team get through the AL, I absolutely believe that with the starting arms the Sox had and their solid lineup, we could have made some real noise in the post-season. Reminded me a lot of 2003, when another well-built Sox club missed the playoffs thanks to a terrible start that gave them no room for error down the stretch.

Now I get why Ozzie is thinking Beckham is his #2 - he doesn't have any other clear options (unlike last year, when Kotsay was so obviously the right answer). But, at least to start off, I'd use AJ here instead. Then if Beckham comes out swinging the bat great, I might move him up to #2. But take the pressure off early.

Sure, AJ is far from ideal, as it puts two lefties back-to-back and takes away any southpaws from the back of your order. And of course, AJ isn't exactly the dictionary definition of a #2 hitter. But they won with him at #2 in 2008 and I just think about how AJ approaches at-bats, loves to bunt or hit behind runners, runs smart on the bases, and is well-versed in the Twins school of fundamental baseball.

To me, that makes him the best option the Sox currently have in their starting lineup to fill the #2 hitter responsibilities that hitting behind Pierre and in front of Konerko and Dunn demands. And a good manager thinks outside the box a bit and makes these kind of calls.

Though what I think I'd really do is start Vizquel at 3B and let him be my #2 hitter. He showed last season he's got everything it takes - respectable average, good at-bats, great bunter, decent speed and good base-running. But it sounds like the Sox really want to keep Vizquel as a Util guy - I can see that, given his age and need for that bench 2B/SS. But unless Morel or Viciedo really shows they can get the job done, I wouldn't hesitate starting the year with Omar at 3B and in the #2 slot.

In fact, my approach would be to let Vizquel show you that he's too old to get it done before you write him off. I hate when teams go into the off-season and decide that because on paper it's time to move from a proven vet to a promising youngster, that they're just gonna go ahead and do it.

I'd far prefer to see Morel to come into camp with something to prove. Tell him the job's Vizquel's and he's got to show he deserves it more. And let Vizquel know that as long as he does what he's done, the position is his to lose. That's how it should be, but so many GMs and Managers are too proactive, forcing things they want to be the case before they actually are.

What I really like about this plan is that it gives you a lot of room for error. If Vizquel struggles early, at least he'll still be doing the little things to help as a #2 hitter and plus defensive 3B. With Beckham in the #2 slot and Morel as an everyday 3B, if either doesn't do well, they're gonna start screwing up their confidence and also not contribute a whole lot to the team.

Instead, put them both in a position to succeed early - Beckham down in the order and Morel in Spring Training and a Minor League stint without any expectations, but instead a challenge to prove himself. Once both of those guys are up and grooving, then you can slot Beckham into the #2 hole and Morel onto the big league club as your 3B.


-There are some talks of batting Dunn #3 behind Beckham, but that would mean once Dunn bats, pitchers are facing righties the rest of the way thru the heart of the order, with AJ the only respite until JP comes around at #1 again. Konerko might not be ideal as a #3 hitter - I don't see him repeating his .300 average again this year - but he's a real presence in the lineup, especially with the likes of Dunn protecting him. With Dunn's lefty bat in the clean-up slot, you're now going R-L-R through 3-4-5, and that challenges pitchers and managers.

Now I'm not one to overplay the importance of righty-lefty (as the Sox did last year, with Kotsay at the #5 slot, or by using the RBI-light AJ there in the past), but if you have the option to utilize R-L to your advantage, then you should do so.


-I love Rios at #5 - after a pair of cloggers like Konerko and Dunn, it's great that you'll start to get into some athleticism. Quentin actually doesn't move bad at #6 and Alexei can really fly at #8. You start mixing speed throughout your lineup and not only do you make yourself more dangerous to other teams, but it will keep Ozzie from falling asleep at the wheel while he waits for 3-run homers.

Aside Konerko and Dunn, you've got a lineup that can steal and do hit-and-runs top to bottom, and that kind of approach to the game keeps your offense more steady and consistent. And as I've harped on in the past - you've got to build a lineup that inspires Ozzie to manage, else he'll happily not do so and blame it on his personnel.


-I'm very curious to see who will be the bench CF option and also whether the Sox will carry 7 relievers or 5 bench hitters. It's a small thing, but still important, especially the way Ozzie uses his bench much like an NL coach. A lot will go into this and we probably won't know until Opening Day, but it'll be interesting to see it shake out.

Will Viciedo forces his way onto the roster if he isn't the everyday 3B? It could happen if he rakes in Spring Training but Morel if looks solid too, he'll get the nod for his defense. So what then - how are you gonna get Viciedo at-bats w/ Dunn and Paulie around and Morel also a righty?

What about the OF? Right now Teahen is the only bench guy who can play OF and he's not a CF. So they're gonna have to add someone and with CQ out there, possibly Dunn on occasion, you're gonna need a CF-capable guy who's fairly strong defensively for the late innings. Ozzie has shown he can get a lot out of the guys Kenny finds for him, so I'm curious who this will be.


-The Sox are saying they're going to be very cautious with Peavy, which they should be, given that he's owed $16M this year, $17M next year, and the club holds what is essentially an $18M option the following year ($22M w/ a $4M buy-out). Throw in the fact that this is an injury you generally see in QBs but not pitchers, and a slow, cautious approach makes perfect sense.

The problem is that it's not easy to gameplan around missing your #1 starter for anywhere between 1 and 3 months. I loved the Freddy Garcia pick up last year and it proved to be genius - they would have been also-rans all season if it wasn't for his 9-3 record before the All-Star Break.

But not only can you not bring back Freddy, you'll have a hard time finding someone similar to sign on for a non-guaranteed role on the team after a month or so. Proven guys like Freddy won't come cheap enough nor will be happy with an uncertain role. And unproven guys - like Freddy was last year coming off his injuries - won't want to come somewhere they aren't guaranteed a chance to re-establish their value.

So the Sox are going to have to get creative, either by finding a viable arm out of their group of prospects or matching up with a trash heap guy who's so desperate for a chance that he'll accept this uncertain role. On thing I hope they don't do, which is something there is a lot of talk of them doing, is use Sale in the spot. I'll talk more on this later, but in brief I'd rather not sacrifice a seemingly sure asset in a great area of need to be a 5th starter maybe just for a month.

One thing I'd like to see the Sox look into - Tony Pena. He's arbitration eligible, so it's possible they non-tender him and he moves on, much like what happened with DJ Carrasco last year (who, by the way, had another productive season out of the pen - not sure why the Sox dumped an effective reliever who could fill any role when such reliable guys are so hard to come by, especially when he signed for peanuts).

Pena only made $1.2M last year, hasn't had impressive numbers, and is in only his 2nd arbitration year - how expensive could he be? And if arbitration would bring Pena a salary that doesn't fit the market (as it often does), isn't it possible to non-tender the guy but still bring him back for a price that's good for both sides? Especially if you're offering him a chance to be a starting pitcher (which ups his earning power), something no one else is going to do?

I really think Pena has a shot to be an ideal short-term #5 starter. He showed himself shockingly good when given multiple innings of work - in the 13 appearances where he racked up 3+ IP this past year, Pena was quality in 9 or 10 of them.

Pena also got what equated to 4 starts this past season, counting when he took over for Floyd after 7 pitches (and no outs). Pena had a respectable 4 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB over 7 IP, then finished the year with a 6 inning, 0 ER game and a 6 IP, 3 ER outing before struggling in his final start to the tune of 6 ER in 6 IP.

It's only four games, but if he could keep that up - 1 great, 2 OK, and 1 bad start in every four - Pena would be a perfect #5 starter, especially for only part of the season. And I have faith he could - for whatever reason last year, when Pena was tasked with throwing a lot of innings, he rose to the challenge. Aside the respectable four starts, he also had two other 4+ inning outings where he allowed either no runs or 1 run.

Another thing I like about using Pena in this role is that he also is able to seamlessly move back into the bullpen to fill that spot and long relief role like he did in the past. So you're not getting a guy just to sub for Peavy, but also to shore up the pen. Especially because in 2007 and the first half of 2008, Pena was a plus set-up man. That means he's one more guy who might randomly turn into a late-inning bullpen option next year. As I'll get into more later, most successful bullpens feature at least a guy or two who came out of nowhere to play a key late-inning role. Pena gives you one more reasonable option for one of those break-outs.


I've still got one more thought inspired by this look at the Sox current roster, but it's a bit of a long and multi-dimensional one, and this post is already pretty full of stuff to chew on, so I'll save it for next week (here).


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