-
Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.
For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). Yesterday, LF and CF (here). I'll finish up with SPs and finally RPs.
Today - RF and DH.
RF - Quentin
This guy is a hell of a conundrum. Is he the uberprospect the Dbacks faithful were waiting on forever? Or the never-will-be the Dbacks front office unloaded for a decent but unexciting prospect? Is he the MVP-caliber monster that tore up the AL before getting injured late in 2008? Or is he a throw-back 80s type slugger, incapable of hitting for average, but a guy who will smack bombs, get on base, and ultimately drive in a really good number of runs.
Honestly, I think I've got a pretty good lock on who this kid is. It's actually as clear as his per 162 game averages - Quentin will hit you about .240-.250, mash at about a 25-35 HR pace, score around 85 R and drive in 100+, given a full season.
He'll get hot for stretches and carry you, but then he'll go stone cold and be a massive hole in the lineup. And most importantly, Quentin is going to get hurt - both nagging injuries and major ones - and miss a decent chunk of games every year. In all CQ will probably consistently hit 20 and drive in 80 while missing a month every year. On top of all that, he'll be very mediocre in the OF (tho with a solid arm) but not clog the bases like most slugging types.
So, is Quentin worth keeping around if that's what you're gonna get? You know, it depends on two things. First, what is he going to cost you? He's in his arbitration years and making $3.2M already. As much as he was a disappointment to fans last year, the 26 HR and 87 RBI will earn him another solid raise. How much of one (and whether you can get him to sign something a little more longterm) dictates whether CQ is worth the obvious negatives that I've come to accept.
The second factor is what kind of market is there out there for Q? Even after last season's disappointment, he had a ton of trade value. How about now, when Quentin bounced back with a year that still had injuries, was far from MVP form, but showed that he's absolutely got heart-of-the-order RBI producing skills? 26 HR and 87 RBI aren't too shabby, but for a guy who missed about 35 games - they're actually pretty impressive.
And while Quentin's salaries will go up for each of the next two seasons under arbitration, he'll remain under his team's control for that time. That's extremely valuable to all the cost-conscious, risk adverse teams out there (which is pretty much all of them). Especially because heart of the order sluggers are about as expensive as any commodity you'll find.
In all, I can't rightfully say what I'd do with Carlos. I do know that the Sox are in a better spot than most teams in that they can put Carlos at DH for stretches to both keep him healthy and offset some of his defensive deficiencies, but can also hold open an OF spot, as it's doubtful this early in his career that he's mentally ready to be a fulltime DH.
While the Sox management took a beating from a lot of places for their use of the DH slot as a flex spot last year, in principle I agree with the strategy - I just thought it was horribly executed (more on that later). Given that I'd also like to see an aging Konerko brought back, I think the Sox would be wise to again look at their DH slot as a place to buy day's off for some of their producers w/o taking their bat out of the lineup.
Hell, it goes beyond Konerko and Quentin - I'd get my athletes like JP, Beckham, and Alexei days in the DH slot as well. Those guys are plus hitters who you don't want to lose from your lineup at any time. But they can use mental and physical breaks throughout the year - so why not give them that with a game here or there as the DH? Just come to the ballpark with zero expectation besides swingin the bat four times. Get refreshed and be ready to play another 6 games in a row.
So if the Sox are going to keep using their DH as such, I can actually get behind another year of Quentin, as long as they can't score some extremely useful piece for him on the trade market. That's the big wild card - if some team really likes the idea of a cost-effective run producer with MVP-caliber upside under control for two years, then I'd be willing to sell now on Quentin.
One angle based on absolutely nothing - Quentin for Ichiro. Probably will take a bunch more than that, but if you're talking Quentin and the Mariners are at all considering dealing Ichiro, then there's the start of a deal to be made.
From the Mariners perspective, their offense last year was horrifically bad. And as good as Ichiro is, he's totally wasted in a lineup that has literally no one behind him who can drive him in. Throw in that he's aging (even if extremely well) and seems to be the type of ego who won't suffer a losing club for long, can't you see the M's being willing to shake things up?
So why not do so by solving one of the two giant holes in your lineup (well, probably three holes - I really think Seattle doesn't have single player on their roster who could legitimately be considered a #3, #4, or #5 hitter) with a guy like Quentin, who might just revert to MVP form, and at the least will drive in runs at a 100+ RBI pace, all while being only 29 next opening day and with two years of salary control?
Especially because you've got a perfect leadoff hitter replacement for Ichiro in Figgins, someone without much trade value after a very middling season last year and a hefty contract. Throw in the salary savings, the other prospects the Sox would send you, and you're telling me the Mariners GM isn't liking his team better after a deal like that?
As for the Sox, don't get me started on how beautiful it would be to have Ichiro hitting #1 or #2 for this team. JP is the consummate team player, so you leave it up to the mildly diva-like Ichiro to tell you if he'd prefer to hit #1 or #2, slot Pierre into the other, and then just sit back and watch as AL pitchers go nuts trying to contain these two.
But it wouldn't stop there - you've got Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all who can run a bit themselves. And more than just stealing bases and getting into pitchers' heads, the Sox lineup would be filled with guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. I've gone on about this kind of thing before - to win you need consistency. And what the statheads have failed to tackle so far, what is the weak foundation that has lead to so many of the stat crunchers theories and proclamations failing is that to win in baseball you have to be able to produce at a relatively consistent level every day.
A lineup with those five guys is well on the way to doing that. Sure, you'd still need a legit producer to lock up the #4 slot (I'm seeing Paulie still there) and then a lefty bat that has to be respected to hit #5 or #6 (seeing that out of the DH slot), but that's doable.
But that's all pipe dreams - for now, there's been no word that Ichiro is available nor that Carlos would be what they'd want. And while there might be a great deal for Carlos out there, the way Kenny operates it's something that you're not gonna see coming. So for that reason I'll leave a Carlos trade as the one wild card that could take this off-season into a different direction than I guessed, but still leave me very satisfied.
For this post, I'll simply say that I'd probably bring Quentin back and hope that he's finally healthy, finally of the right mindset, and appreciate that even if he's not, he's still gonna give me pop and RBI production that is very difficult to find and do it w/o a major financial commitment, be it in dollars or years.
DH - Blah
As I've said a bunch of times, I'm definitely in support of how the Sox would like to use their DH slot. The problem was that like Ozzie's supposed commitment to small ball and Lovie's commitment to the run, the Sox DH plan turned out to be very different in execution than in design.
The point of dumping Thome was the Sox wanted to open up the spot to rest their regulars more. And on some level it worked, as Konerko and Quentin each got 23 DH games while JP, Rios, and Beckham added another 13 days off. The problem was that adds up to fewer than 60 games - barely more than a third of the season. The rest of the time the spot was filled with under-producing bums who had no right getting DH at-bats.
In fact, eventually the Sox just gave up on the idea all together, taking on a big chunk of salary for Manny to fill the spot pretty much every day.
But I hope that was a desperation move forced upon them by the mishandling of the approach, not an admittance by Ozzie that his basic strategy was wrong or a decision by Kenny to revert back to the DH as a one-dimensional slugger spot, as seems to be the GM's inclination.
Because I think with the right personnel, utilizing the DH to rest regulars and rotate a number of more dynamic bats into good match-ups is definitely the best way to get the most out of the slot. I've long argued that more teams should use platoons, based on how many guys you see end up with great final numbers on a season where they only played in a portion of the games. Often times you find out these are guys whose effectiveness is limited to righties or lefties, and that they're on teams who capitalize on it.
So me, I'm out looking for some good platoon bench options who can hold their own in the field to use to rotate through the Sox DH slot. I sure as heck am not gonna take a guy who should be a great pinch-hitter/late-inning defensive replacement or, at most, an everyday #2 or #9 hitter, and ask him to suddenly turn into a #5 hitter like they did with Kotsay.
Kotsay should have been a fan favorite on the South Side - in fact he should be a bit over-rated. He's a dirt-wearing, do-what-it-takes grinder who comes up big when it matters (as his great pinch-hitter numbers show) and can help you win in a number of ways. As a bench lefty, late-inning 1B or corner OF, and occasional pinch runner, this guy could have brought a lot of value to a team coached by someone like Ozzie. And the Southside faithful would have loved him, like they over-valued Rowand.
Instead Kotsay was asked to be something he's never even pretended to hint at in his 10+ big league years and, as you 100% could have banked on, failed miserably and took the Sox down with him in the first few months.
The other thing I wouldn't do is pick up a guy who's already failed as a scrap heap reclamation project and already failed as a part-time DH/OF type in the most offensively-friendly park in the league like they did with Andruw Jones.
In fact, Jones ended up being about as good as you could have hoped - his average was bad and he struck out too much, but he offset by playing solid D, running well, hitting with good power, walking a bunch, and being an overall perfect 4th OF. Unfortunately, like with Kotsay, the Sox asked Jones to be more than that as a semi-regular DH and again, we're left thinking he was a bust when in reality he was just put in a position that asked too much of him.
So what now? In my discussion of Teahen at 3B I mentioned Bobby Abreu. Again, who knows if he's available or the Sox want him, but that's the type of player I'd be looking for - a legit left-handed bat who's capable of hitting in the middle of the order. And I don't mean is perfect for the middle of the order - Abreu no longer has much power - but that is s the type of professional hitter who pitchers respect and can do enough with the bat to drive in runs with consistency.
I'm fine with a guy who doesn't have the bigtime power, as long as he's a good average hitter who makes contact and drives the ball enough to bring in some runs. I'm also fine with a guy who can't hit for much average as long as he's not striking out all the time, gets on base at a good clip, and again, has enough of a resume and big swing left that opposing pitchers have to respect him.
Again, I'm also looking for good platoon guys. Find me that lefty who murders righties and can play a couple of positions respectably. Find me that righty who doesn't have much power but consistently hits over .300 against lefties while being able to hold his own in the field somewhere.
These guys exist - they float around the league on the periphery, getting one-year gigs with different teams every year, flashing good things for a bit and then coming back to Earth. But every once in a while one breaks out. His final numbers look great and you wonder where it came from. Often it's as simple as he was put in a place to succeed - he went to a team with a solid lineup and was simply asked to go out and feast on lefties or righties, nothing more.
The big thing for the Sox is going to be finding a lefty who can handle that. The Sox have plenty of righties, both in the rest of their lineup (Rios, maybe Konerko, Beckham, Alexei) and as DH candidates (Quentin, Viciedo). And it's not easy to find these kind of lefty bats, as they're in high demand given how most pitchers are righties.
But they're out there. And the Sox could creative and trade for one - never, ever sleep on Kenny in the trade market. Or get generous and sign somebody - if they let Paulie walk, that opens up a lot of money, and even if they don't there are free agents who get overlooked ever year (like Abreu and Dunn two years ago or Damon last season). Or maybe they just lick their wounds and learn from their mistakes last year, going back to the trash heap but this time being a bit more demanding of what they come away with it from. Maybe even bring in a couple of different options and see who steps up to earn the most at-bats.
I'll throw one last option out there - if the Sox do let Paulie go and/or trade Quentin, replacing them with more athletic and durable alternatives, then I wouldn't be opposed to using the DH in the old school fashion of a pure slugger. Without those guys around, you don't have as much of a need to sit your regulars. Also, without those guys, you're much less in danger of turning back into a beer league softball team just because of a single one-dimensional slugger in the DH slot.
DH is another one of those positions that will be very interesting to watch this off-season. The Sox really could go in any direction, from a traditional lumbering slugger to a handful of miscast role players. I just hope that the Sox see it as an opportunity to improve their club, being aggressive to find some great options, instead of a hole that just needs to be filled, falling back on whatever garbage they can easily get ahold of.
Next up: SPs
-
3 Postcards For Sale
7 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment