Tonight I'm gonna party like it's 1999!

-

In my uber-excited post about Juan Pierre, one of my many justifications for ebullience was that Kenny Williams can't just invent a time machine and go back and get a 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, so Pierre was as good as we could have hoped for the 2010 Sox.

But what if he can? I know, it sounds crazy, but bear with me here.

OK, don't bear with me - I'm really just using this line of nonsense to mock Kenny. Because his belief that he can actually go back through time is the only justification I can see for the signings of Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones, even in limited bench roles.

With a four-man bench (the standard in the Ozzie-Kenny era) and the way Ozzie likes to sit his regulars, these bench guys get a good 300+ ABs. And given that Kenny can't go back through time to 1999, or hell even 2006, the Sox are in for a world of hurt every single one of those times these two come to the plate.

Have you looked at the numbers? In 2006, Andruw Jones was still a force, winning yet another Gold Glove while jacking 41 dongs (after 51 the year previous) and driving in 129 (after a 128-RBI campaign). Since then? He's hit .222, .158, and .214.

Similarly, in 2006, Omar Vizquel hit .295, scored 88 runs, got on base at a .361 clip, stole 24 bases, and was still regarded as one of the best defensive SS in baseball. Since? .247, .222, and then a "resurgent" .266 last year.

These players are shells of what they once were and time just keeps on eroding their skills. Can we really expect a season's worth of solid production, even in a spot role, from these two?

The answer is an iffy "sort of" and a couldn't-be-more-convinced "no." Vizquel will be 43 in April and I definitely don't expect him to match the .260 average he had in Texas, where everyone hits. Instead, I'm expecting him to be back around the .220-.240 range he showed in his last two seasons in SF.

He's no longer a Gold Glove caliber defender, with age robbing him of the range and athleticism that made him one of the best of all time. Vizquel also isn't a big speed threat any more, again due to his advancing age. He's never had much for power or been a great OBA guy (tho he's not terrible at drawing walks). So what will the quadragenarian the give the Sox for the $1.4M he's guaranteed?

Actually, despite the tenor of the post until now, I believe he should give the Sox some decent intangibles and some solid role-playing skills. While he's no longer the game's premier defensive SS, he's still a very solid defender, not making a single error in 62 games. And that was in at least 16 games each at 2B, 3B, and SS. Defensively, Vizquel is a very capable utility infielder.

Vizquel also can still do the little things with his bat. He's never been one to strike out a lot, he can get some occasional walks, and most important to small-ball evangelists like myself, he's one of the games best bunters. Something I noticed in the Pierre press release was that Vizquel was the guy listed as the second active career leader in things like bunt hits, infield hits, and sacrifices.

Some of that is cause he's been around forever (one of only a handful of players still active to have 75+ hits in the 80s), but it's more because Vizquel has long been a guy who does well all the little things the game demands.

So yeah, Vizquel will most likely have a low average and get ripped by the casual fan who expects too much, but the real students of the Sox will notice the little things he does next year to help the team win. Hitting behind runners, bunting people over, taking an extra base on a single, etc etc. And they'll appreciate how he allows Ozzie to sit his infielders without any loss of defense (in fact, Vizquel might be a step up from all three... which just hit me and now has me scared for 2010... damn... I'm going to suppress that notion for a while).

But most of all, at least I hope, the good fans among us will appreciate how we're seeing a new Alexei next year - one fulfilling the mountain of promise he's got, one who no longer dazzles us one night and frustrates the next, but instead puts together a steady campaign - offensively and defensively - that lands him rightfully in talks about the best all-around infielders in baseball.

Alexei has a chance to be either a cornerstone on a very successful batch of Sox ballclubs, or to be a major reason for a string of disappointing seasons. He's really that volatile and that crucial. His defense is SUCH an issue, the way he mentally checks out on so many plays. Given the constant action that a shortstop sees, Alexei's brain lapses were killer last season.

But if put in the right mental state, Alexei could be a real force. He's got all the tools and he's shown for stretches that he can capitalize on those tools to impress both in the field and the batter's box. It's a bit hopeful to assume Vizquel can cure all that ails him, but it's also not outside the realm of reason. Plenty of players "figure it out" and having one of the game's best shortstops ever looking out for you is certainly one way to do it.

So, I'm not in love with how weak Vizquel's production will be, given that he'll surely get a ton of at-bats. And at his age, you have no idea if he'll just lose it completely. But I'm gonna bet that he does enough of those little things I love so much and has enough of a positive effect on Alexei (and Beckham, actually), that Kenny, even w/o a time machine, will be right on this one.


As for Druw Jones? I was iffy at first and tried to talk myself into it being no-risk, with only $1M guaranteed.

But after looking into it, the guy just can't field and just can't hit. I know he used to be the gold standard in center, but that when he wasn't fat, out-of-shape, and disinterested. Last year the Rangers mainly DHd him, only using him in the OF 17 times, and NEVER in center.

I'm gonna repeat that - don't fool yourself into thinking Andruw Jones has to at least be serviceable in center. He's not - he's fallen off completely and become a fielding liability. There's no other explanation for how the Rangers used him defensively last year except that.

And despite playing in Texas, where even the biggest journeyman scrubs have great offensive seasons (Gary Matthews or Milton Bradley, anyone?), Druw hit a whopping .214 with 72 Ks in only 281 ABs! But it gets worse - that .214 was bloated by a red hot April, where he hit .344 and respectable May, where he hit .245. After that? .170 in June, .209 in July, .167 in August, and .179 in September.

Are you freakin kidding me? We're going to give this guy at-bats? A guy who's "best" month of the final four was .209? Two. Oh. Nine. Didn't we see this movie last year, when it was called Dwayne Wise? Don't we know how terribly it ended? And at least he could field and run! I mean those are key skills and Wise clearly had them. Druw can't do either. He's here solely to hit. And he can't do that!!

With the lefty Kotsay already taking the majority of the corner OF ABs, Druw's role will be against lefties. But guess what - Jones hit a whopping .218 against lefties last year, with a mere .395 slugging percentage! Of his 17 HRs, only 4 came against southpaws (despite 45% of his plate appearance coming against them)! This was no great abberation either - over the course of his career, Druw hasn't really hit lefties any better than righties.

So what in the hell do the Sox see here? What they need in that bench spot is a righty who can play center well and give them speed. He doesn't have to hit (we've got Kotsay for that), just field well, be right-handed, and be able to run. Those guys grow on trees. I'm sure Brian Anderson is there for the taking. Joey Gathright. And a million other failed athletic CFs.

As it is, if we're carrying Druw on the roster, we either have to go to a 5th bench player and find some journeyman CF, or we're going to have to move Pierre over to center anytime Rios sits, or we're going to have to deal with yet another garbage CF incapable of playing the spot (remember Rob Mackowiak or the failed Griff Jr. experiment?).

It's possible he'll "turn it around" but what evidence is there of that? Jones has been a bum for three years, under three different coaches (two of them Hall of Famers - Cox and Torre), in three different places. So what possible faith do I have that this year on the Southside will be different?


My hope? At $1M, the Sox are willing to eat his contract, either before breakin Spring Training or after a horrendous April, with minimal damage to the club's chance in 2010. As I said, the spot he's filling is not particularly important. Kotsay will get the majority of the corner OF at-bats as the lefty, so they just need to find a guy who can play against the occasional lefty (and as a buddy of mine pointed out, the AL Central is woefully lacking them outside of Chicago), field his position, and maybe give them some speed off the bench. Shouldn't be too hard to find one of those once Druw's career is officially deemed over (and when he washes out with the Sox, it will be).

The only upside of the Jones signing? It's a clear indication that the Sox aren't done. They can pretend that Kotsay/Jones and a juggling of the starters will fill the DH role this year, but that's a load of crap. Kenny is a bright man and he saw what happened last year, as Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu were signed for relative peanuts shortly before the start of the season because no market ever developed for their services.

Since then, the economy has only gotten worse and teams have only felt the impacts of such for a longer time. Money will be even tighter this off-season and possibly even more high quality free agents will be available for a 1 year, $5M deal or the like. Kenny knows this is a distinct possibility and like always, is lying in the weeds waiting to add a player no one thought he'd be able to.

One such guy I'm salivating over? Johnny Damon. Why not? The Yanks seemed to have moved on and how many teams out there want to spend big money on a 36-year old leadoff guy who doesn't really run anymore, can't play well in the field, and will miss time throughout the year? Yet Damon's numbers remain strong and he still considers himself a high-priced guy, meaning he might be very late to accept the new realities of the free agent market.

Sounds a lot like Abreu (another aging Yankee cast-off) last year, doesn't it? Damon might just slip through the cracks, and might just end up on the Southside. He'd fit - Ozzie likes the idea of being able to juggle the OF and DH spots a bit, keeping Quentin healthy, keeping Rios and Pierre's legs fresh, and allowing Damon to rest his aging body. Damon would ably fill the #2 hole, with the long-proven top of the order skills that have lead teams to titles his whole career.

Wouldn't his .280+ average, 15+ HRs, 15+ steals, and .350+ OBA look good in that #2 slot? Right behind Pierre, the near-perfect lead-off guy for Ozzie? Ahead of Quentin and Paulie, with a back of the order that features dynamic young bats like Alexie, Rios, and Beckham, as well as a solid vet in AJ?

Who knows - Damon could sign tomorrow for $20M for 2. I know nothing about who's interested in him or what the Sox are really looking for. But my guess is that the Sox are just waiting to cheaply fill that DH with the best value guy who gets left behind during the free agent signing period. It'll probably come out of nowhere, be someone the Sox haven't ever been linked to (because the supposed asking price was out of reach), and happen very late in the off-season.

I just hope it's someone like Damon who fills a real need, and not just some washed up slugger with huge holes in his swing that will clog up the Sox order. Aside from Thome, who showed himself amazingly capable of driving in runs (his average with runners in scoring position and with runners on-base were ALWAYS well higher than his normal such numbers), I'm not interested in some cheesy DH bat-for hire. I want someone who's a bit more dynamic, like an Abreu or a Damon.

Let's hope the fates again smile on the Sox this off-season. And that Druw Jones gets cut before we're forced to watch him pretend to care about hitting.

HAPPY! HAPPY! JOY! JOY!

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"Just when I thought you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this... and totally redeem yourself!" - Harry Dunne

I've made my dissatisfaction with Kenny's off-season moves very, very clear. Mainly I've focused on Teahen, but I also really don't like the Andruw Jones signing. I actually just wrote a fairly sizeable amount about how incredibly terrible that signing was, but then I realized I actually meant to write about today's events. So check back in later this week for a pair of posts detailing my thoughts on the bench signings and the minor pen shake-up.

Because today, today we celebrate. I just got an email from a Cubs fan buddy who said, and I quote, "Congratulations on acquiring the worst player in baseball."

My response - actually my response was like 10 pages, most of which I'll repeat in this post, but this was the grand finale - "I am not exaggerating when I say that to me the Sox just made the single best move this off-season that I ever could have hoped for. No other realistic transaction would have helped their team like the one they just pulled off. Nothing."


So why do we have such differing opinions of this player? While my buddy is a Cubs fan and thus inherently less schooled in true baseball wisdom, he actually does know a good deal about the game and has educated me in a number of areas and with a number of insightful theories (some of which I'm sure I'll share here).

So what was his beef? First and foremost, his view was absolutely skewed by being a Cubs fan. For some reason, Cubs fans HATE Pierre. In their minds they acquired one of the best players in the game and ended up with a career-worst year that tanked their clubs hopes that year.

In reality? Pierre had the SAME year with the Cubs that he's had every season since 2001. As I posted last time, this guy is one of the most remarkably consistent ballplayers of his generation:

• For the past two seasons, Pierre has played part-time, so let's combine and reduce those into one 650 AB year and then look at what he's done since becoming a regular in 2001:

2008-2009 - 650 ABs, .295 avg, 192 hits, 86 R, 60 SB
2007 - 668 AB, .293 avg, 196 hits, 96 R, 64 SB
2006 - 699 AB, .292 avg, 204 hits, 87 R, 58 SB
2005 - 656 AB, .276 avg, 181 hits, 96 R, 57 SB
2004 - 678 AB, .326 avg, 221 hits, 100 R, 45 SB
2003 - 668 AB, .305 avg, 204 hits, 100 R, 65 SB
2002 - 592 AB, .287 avg, 170 hits, 90 R, 47 SB
2001 - 617 AB, .327 avg, 202 hits, 108 R, 46 SB

Can you even pick out the year he was with the Cubs? Is there any stretch that he went from being incredible awesome to bad? Nope - some numbers jump around, but at the end of the day, he gives 650+ ABs, around 200 hits, 95 runs, and 50 SBs. There isn't a season in there where he's significantly deviated from that expectation. Not one.

The simple fact is that the Cubs had high hopes in 2006, as they do every year, but they were dashed by Marshall, Marmol, Rusch, Guzman, Mateo, Prior, Walrong, Kuk Ryu, and Williams combining for 80(!) starts, despite EVERY ONE of them posting an ERA over 5.32!

How is that Pierre's fault? Even the Cubs offensive troubles weren't Pierre's fault - DLee got hurt, ARam and Jacque Jones had poor starts, and Ronny Cedeno had 572 plate appearances.

I tell you all of this because as Sox fans, you're surely surrounded by Cubs fans, and those Cubs fans will inevitably crap on this move. Ignore them - their opinions are uneducated and baseless. But as a Sox fan, you should already know this.


Having said all that, my buddy did bring up a couple of gripes about Pierre that even the most unbiased of observers will mention when commenting on this move. In fact, what he said will be the stock complaints you will hear from everyone - Cubs fans, local commentators, and national opinion makers. Heck, even your fellow Sox fans will bring these up, so I'll quote him and then discuss the virtues of these various concerns:

"Nothing like a leadoff hitter who can't get on base, hit for any power whatsoever, and has a weak throwing arm all while being overpaid."

Taken one at a time:

1. Pierre can't get on base.

OK, this is based in truth. You'll notice in my listing of his year-by-year numbers I left out OBA, which is a key stat for any hitter, but especially for a lead-off hitter. Yeah, that was on purpose. Pierre's OBAs just aren't that good.

But they also aren't terrible. Yes he's had a bunch of seasons in the .320-.330 range, which is mildly low for a leadoff guy. But he's also had a few in the .360-.370 range, which is outstanding. Over the course of his career? .348. Dude, that is absolutely solid for a leadoff hitter. No, it's not amazing, but if he gets on at a .348 clip this season, that will NOT be a weakness. And that's very possible - he left a pitcher friendly park in LA for the Cell, and yet still is coming off a .365 OBA in 425 plate appearance season.

One final note - you never hear anyone complain about Ichiro's inability to walk. Here's a guy who only walks 6 out of every 100 plate appearances. Yet he's absolutely 100% rightfully known as one of the best lead-off hitters of all time. Pierre walks 5.5 times out of every 100 plate appearances, so why does he get so much more crap for it? Sure, Ichiro is a career .333 hitter, but Pierre's a career .301 hitter. Does that difference make Ichiro a living legend and yet Pierre a piece of garbage?

I think the more accurate assessment is Ichiro is one of the best lead-off hitters ever, while Pierre is simply one of the top 10 lead-off hitters of his generation. Given that Pierre hasn't lost a step, I'm not going to let a skewed view of Pierre's walk rate take away from all he's accomplished.

2. Pierre doesn't hit for any power.

Combine this with #1 and you start to wonder, what does this guy do? Let's just say that Pierre does resort back to the .326-.331 OBA range he put up every season from 05-08. Combined with his guaranteed lack of any power (he's never hit more than 3 HRs), will this prove the naysayers right about how little he does for your club?

Nope. First off, because everything is relative. Of course I wish the Sox had invented a time machine and gone back to acquire 1983 Rickey Henderson or 1986 Tim Raines, but the reality is that the good contact, good OBA, great speed, decent power lead-off hitter is the single hardest thing in all of baseball to find.

Ace pitchers? There's a handful of them every season, it's always changing, and they can be had in free agency or for a boatload of prospects. Big boppers? The most over-saturated keystone commodity out there, given that you really only need two big bats to win the title. Catchers, Middle Infielders, Centerfielders? All key pieces to a championship team, but you can survive with a great defensive role player type.

But a top notch lead-off hitter? Those are SO rare and even harder to get ahold of. How many leadoff hitters steal 40+ bases, hit over .290, get on base at a .375 clip, can jack 15+ HRs, know how to bunt, are consistent producers who avoid prolonged slumps, and get the fine art of using base-running to change the game?

The simple reality is that those guys don't exist, and the ones who come closest are nearly impossible to get (check out the asking price for Carl Crawford, or talk to Indians or Mariners about Sizemore or Ichiro). So ANY leadoff you're going to acquire is going to be missing something. The question is how much will he be missing and how important are those pieces.

With Pierre, you're not getting any power. Personally - I don't care. A lead-off hitter's job is to consistently spark the rest of the offense. Power is not even remotely required to do that, so don't waste a second worrying about Juan's lack of it.

And as I said, a .325-.330 OBA is a very distinct possibility. And that hurts - you definitely want your lead-off hitter getting on base in front of your big hitters. But .325-.330 is not the end of the world. Most speedy lead-off hitters are in the .325-.350 range anyway, so you're not losing much versus all the teams you're trying to beat.

More importantly though, if you scroll down the rest of that prototypical leadoff hitter checklist (i.e. a description of Rickey), then you'll start to see why I love Juan Pierre.

• Consistency - check.

This is the most-underrated attribute of a lead-off hitter, one that none of the "experts," including the stat freaks, ever mention. But if you've ever regularly watched baseball (I mean one team, day in, day out, for a whole season), you know that your offense often goes as your lead-off hitter goes. We've seen it plenty with the Sox - remember the Kenny Lofton year, when he sparked us for the first month and raised everyone's hopes? Then he went stone cold and so did the team.

The number two hitter was no longer just trying to take some pitches and move him over, often times sneaking singles through holes created in the infield. The number three hitter was no longer looking just to drive the ball and bring a guy in from third, but instead trying to carry the team every time up. And the big boppers were finding that their three run-homers and two-run doubles were solo shots and harmless bases empty, two-out doubles.

The Sox went through the same thing with Ray Durham's streaks and with Pods' injuries. When those guys weren't going, it didn't matter that a string of big hitters were waiting behind, the Sox offense just couldn't get regular runs without something happening at the top.

If there's anything that Pierre brings to the table, it's consistency. As I showed, every year he basically puts up the same numbers. And it's more than just yearly consistency - the guy is consistent month-to-month. I just went through all his splits since 2004 and rarely does he ever hit below .260 or .270 in a month.

But equally as important to being consistent is being healthy. And Pierre is ALWAYS healthy. Check those yearly numbers again - do you see how many ABs he's getting? Before becoming a part-timer in LA, Pierre hadn't missed a SINGLE GAME in five straight seasons. Only a glut of outfielders in LA has been able to keep this guy off the field.

The end result - a guy who regular clocks in at over 200 hits. Wanna know how many times the Sox have pulled off that feat since 1936? Twice - Nellie Fox in 1954 and Albert Belle in 1998. Juan Pierre has done it four times this decade. Throw in his 30-40 walks a year and you see why he's able to consistently score over 95 runs (5 times this decade). Since Ray Durham finished off a long stretch of 100+ run seasons in 2001, Iguchi (in 2006) is the only other top of the order hitter the Sox have had break that barrier.

The simple fact is that Pierre comes to play every day and every day finds a way to help his offense. And if you get caught up on his low walk total you're gonna miss the consistently high rate of hits and runs he's recording, both of which make him a plus lead-off man.

• Speed - check.
  

There are guys who can steal some bases and then there are guys like Juan Pierre. As a full-timer, he's never failed to steal 45 bases. His last season as a regular - 2007 - he stole 64 bases. Over the past two years he stole 70 bases, despite getting just over a season's worth of playing time. This is one of those guys I salivate over - someone who's such a threat to steal that he effects how the pitcher handles the #8, #9, #2, #3, and #4 hitters. That means throughout the game, the pitcher is spending about half the at-bats worried about JP's legs.

That's why the statheads are wrong about the stolen base - because it does more than just advance you one base. It changes the whole make-up of the game. And Pierre even does it at a highly efficient rate, being successful at about a 75% clip. Even the statheads start to cede that the SB is valuable when you're that good at it.

• Knows the art of leading off - check.

As I've just discussed, Pierre is more than just a guy with some speed and he's more than just a freak track star. Pierre knows how to steal bases in large quantities, knows how to do so at a great success rate, and knows how to turn those skills into a disruptive force for the opposing team and a facilitating force for his own.

But it's more than that - Pierre also knows how to do countless other little things. He's renowned for getting to the park early and rolling balls down the lines to gauge how bunts will play. Being able to bunt is HUGE in terms of keeping consistent, especially when you're not a big walks guy. Tough pitcher, cold weather, bit of a slump? All perfect times to lay a bunt or two down and cheat your way on base. Plus, Pierre won't always be in a leading off situation. He'll come up with no outs and a guy on first or second, and then that bunting skill becomes a way to keep the offense grooving along.

Pierre also makes incredible contact - despite logging around 750 plate appearances in a number of seasons, he's never once had more than 52 Ks and most often is in the 35-45 range. With that kind of speed, you want to be putting the ball in play. Something that never is figured into the stats - how many times does Pierre make contact and force an error from an infielder trying to hurry a throw to catch the speedster?

Equally important, again, often times Pierre will be hitting with guys on base and you're gonna want him making contact and moving them along. Despite the serious set-backs of Teahen and Andruw Jones, the Sox have actually made good progress moving away from strike-out types and getting more contact-prone hitters. Pierre will make the Sox even better in that regard.

In all, yes, Pierre is not the absolute perfect lead-off hitter. But given what's available out there and given all that he does, Pierre is a hell of a find. He'll do so much to make this offense go, and maybe most importantly, he'll keep Ozzie thinking smallball. Pierre will be exciting and effective, and with any support around him, should be a key to sparking a very solid offense this year.

3. Pierre has a weak throwing arm.

OK, again this is true. But again, it's not that big of a deal. Pierre is a decent outfielder, but not great, and that terrible arm is a major reason. However, the Sox have Rios to play center and seem content with moving Quentin over to right. I'm hoping that's what they do - while Quentin probably won't be great in right, he'll be serviceable. And supposedly Rios is a much better centerfielder - his natural spot - than rightfielder.

Most certainly, Pierre is far better off in left than center. Much like Pods, putting him in left can turn him from a liability to an asset. His arm will be better hidden and his fielding and range will both be pluses for a traditionally weak outfield spot. I can't say I know a ton about his defense, but anyone who's played as much centerfield on as many good teams as he has should be a decent defender. I know he's got speed and I know he takes great pride in knowing the outfield dimensions and positioning himself correctly. Alongside Rios and Quentin, I think we've got a pretty athletic and capable outfield defensively.

4. Pierre is overpaid.

This is the most impressive part of the deal - the Sox are paying Pierre a pittance to play for them the next two seasons. Just $3M this year and $5M next. Remember, Chone Figgins, a very similar offensive player with injury concerns, just got $9M per for four years. Pierre himself originally was signed for $45M over five. Kenny Lofton got regular deals until he was 40, because teams always need guys who can lead-off.

But for some reason, as soon as Pierre signed that deal he was hammered as being overpaid. Despite the fact that supply and demand made his deal perfectly reasonable, given how important lead-off hitters are and how few can actually do the job with any regular success. He's done nothing but contribute in LA, even when losing his fulltime job - first to the signing of Andrew Jones, then to the Manny trade.

Most guys would have sulked after signing a big deal, doing exactly what he always had, and then being forced to the bench. Not Pierre - he turned himself into a valuable super-sub, sparking the Dodgers when they needed it in both 2008 and 2009 (the latter, when Manny was lost to a 50-game steroid suspension). To me that's one more asset on the checklist - being a great team player. Especially with franchise kids around, it's gonna be great to see such a selfless sort like Pierre play the game.

So even up near the $9M per he's owed each of the next two seasons, I still would have liked this deal for the Sox. But at $4M per - that is an absolute steal. With our payroll up against it, somehow Kenny found us the best lead-off man on the market and did so without forcing us to deal a significant piece to cut salary elsewhere.

Relating back to the quote that opened this post, this move today has me happier about the Sox than I ever thought I'd be this off-season, given the Getz-Teahen fiasco and my soon to be propounded on Druw Jones botch up. Pierre changes the outlook of things so much, especially when acquired at such a cheap salary hit. I've got every faith he'll produce - now my concerns are just whether Ozzie will be inspired by his presence and the more athletic lineup to finally get back to a more dynamic approach. The HRs will come - but that doesn't mean you can't run, bunt, steal, and so on. The best team is the one that can beat you in both ways. The Sox could be that team this year, if Ozzie will just let them.

The Teahen Herald

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So this will be only my third post since August ended, and all three will be about Mark Teahen - a mediocre utility guy.

Actually, that's why I keep writing these. Because Mark Teahen is just a mediocre utility guy. He's had over 1600 at-bats during the previous three seasons, and they've produced a very, VERY convincing body of work that Mark Teahen is mediocre. There were no flashes of potential, no great excuses for his troubles, no suggestion that he just needed a certain something or other to break out. Nope, Mark Teahen's resume screams that he is and always will be mediocre.

But apparently Kenny Williams feels otherwise. Apparently he saw something in those 1600+ ABs that didn't come through in the standard numbers. Yep, a consistent 500 at-bats a year for three straight years, all producing mediocrity, but somehow Kenny sees something different.

And thus I am forced to vent my anger here. Three times.

Why do I need to do it today? Because Kenny just signed Mr. Mediocre to a three year extension with the Sox, paying him just under $5M per.


In case you don't remember what kind of player Teahen is, allow myself to quote... myself:

• "He's a career .269-.331-.419 guy who averages about 9 steals a year and plays decent but not exceptional D.
  
  To put those numbers in perspective - they'd be mediocre for a 2B or SS, let alone the corner spots. Or more specifically, Scotty Pods this year, Brian Anderson in 2008, and Rob Mackowiak in 2007 all had higher slugging percentages than Teahen has had in any of the last three seasons. Just look at that list of players. Now think about the fact that they had MORE power than Teahen. Yep."

I was already broken-hearted about the fact that we gave up a prospect and were now going to give over 400-600 ABs to this guy, but now Kenny has decided to twist the knife by giving Teahen around the same amount of money that last off-season would have bought you one of these two players:

• .293 Avg, 15 HR, 96 R, 103 RBI, .390 OBA, .435 SLG while hitting #2 or #3 on one of the top 4 teams in baseball.
• .267 Avg, 38 HR, 81 R, 105 RBI, .398 OBA, .529 SLG while playing 1B, LF, and RF with regularity.

Those are the stat lines of Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn, respectively - ever heard of em? And it's not like either of those stat lines were out of the ordinary - those are pretty much exactly what the teams who gave them $5M each thought they'd be buying. Abreu and Dunn are two of the most consistent producers in all of baseball. Neither has any personal or lockerroom issues or anything, and while both are subpar defenders, they are still fully capable of playing in the field everyday in the bigs.

The reason such players were signed for so cheap is because teams, just like the rest of us, do not have any money these days. Almost everyone is tapped out in their payroll. Free agency is quiet and non-lucrative for all but the chosen few. Abreu and Dunn were not outliers last off-season and there most certainly will be a couple more such cases this off-season.


Look at the relatively stable numbers Teahen has shown over the last three years, add in a (very non-guaranteed) bump from playing in a offensive-friendly Cell, and we can confidently predict what we'll get - average between .260 and .290, 10-20 HRs, 65-85 runs, 50-65 RBI, 320-.360 OBA, around a .425 SLG %, and 5-15 steals.

Compare those to what Dunn and Abreu got last off-season. Is there any question that Kenny just overpaid like a total moron?


Now let's add the $5M per that Kenny is blowing on Teahen (instead of sticking with the near costless Getz, who will at worst be equally mediocre, at best round into a nice role player) and throw it together with the $15M he stupidly stuck himself with in Rios, and think about all we could acquire in an absolute buyers market this off-season. Leadoff hitter? Check. Lefty and Righty out of the pen? Check. Slugging left-handed DH/corner OF? Check.

Basically, almost all of our needs could have been met with those $20M that Kenny has now given to Teahen (decidedly mediocre) and Rios (mediocre might be best-case).


I actually didn't give Kenny a ton of heat when we first made the Rios move, as I was trying to focus on the upside that he had and how it would fit so well with what I wanted to do. But time to reflect has made me realize that while the upside is there, it wasn't worth even close to $60M in this market. So I'm gonna hope Rios becomes that plus CF 30-30 guy everyone drooled over a few years ago, but I'm still gonna be bitter at Kenny for making a bad move in getting him at full price.

Similarly, Teahen could end up alright. Maybe he has a career year and hits .290 w/ 20 HRs, 75 R, and 75 RBI in 550 ABs (yes, that would be a career year for the 28-year old). You know, basically like Juan freakin Uribe did last year (had he been given 550 ABs). For $1M. After we cut him lose.

Am I saying bring back Uribe? Yes, but that's because I have an unhealthy but fully justified love affair with the man. But if I was being more "reasonable" my point would be that you can go out and find the Mark Teahens and Juan Uribes of the world for chump change. These kind of guys don't have big upside and have plenty of downside, and there are a lot of them. So take advantage of the market being in your favor and fill that spot for $1M and some incentives. Hell, get two of them and double the odds that one will turn out as you hoped.

Instead, Kenny just gave this pile of mediocrity $14M. In this market. After taking on the $60M that Rios is owed, while the guy was smack dab in the middle of a multi-year slump that was only getting worse.

So can you blame me for taking three straight posts to bitch about how idiotic the Sox are being of late?

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Because I don't ever want to be grouped with all the other whiners and cynics out there (why is it that local sports media is dominated by uber-negative types who revel in thinking the worst of everything?), I'll leave you with one positive rumor to come out of the winter meetings - the Sox are supposedly pursuing Juan Pierre.

I know, a lot of people out there hate Juan Pierre. You are idiots. Some things to chew on:

1. Chone Figgins, who's a very similar offensive player (same speed and lack of power, better OBA but lower average), was just given $36M over 4 years by the Mariners. Remember, Figgins spent the two seasons before his walk year regularly visiting the DL.

Considering that deal, does the $18.5M for the next two years that Pierre has left look that bad? Especially when you consider that unlike Figgins, Pierre NEVER misses time - regularly clocking in at 700+ plate appearances?

2. For the past two seasons, Pierre has played part-time, so let's combine and reduce those into one 650 AB year and then look at what he's done since becoming a regular in 2001:

08-09 - 650 ABs, .295 avg, 192 hits, 86 R, 60 SB
07 - 668 AB, .293 avg, 196 hits, 96 R, 64 SB
06 - 699 AB, .292 avg, 204 hits, 87 R, 58 SB
05 - 656 AB, .276 avg, 181 hits, 96 R, 57 SB
04 - 678 AB, .326 avg, 221 hits, 100 R, 45 SB
03 - 668 AB, .305 avg, 204 hits, 100 R, 65 SB
02 - 592 AB, .287 avg, 170 hits, 90 R, 47 SB
01 - 617 AB, .327 avg, 202 hits, 108 R, 46 SB

Have you ever seen such consistency in any player? Let alone a leadoff hitter? Isn't that the epitome of a leadoff hitter's job - to consistently spark the offense? Seriously, how much better would the Sox have been in every one of those seasons if they had Pierre's numbers instead of whatever piece of garbage they used to try to lead off?

Does Pierre walk? Nope. But he's no free-swinger - this guy only strikes out about 40 times a year, despite getting well over 700 plate appearances a year. And he makes up for his lack of walks by playing every single day, being the best base-stealer of his generation, and consistently getting hits. He bunts, makes good contact, and runs the bases well. In short, he does everything that we as Sox fans wish our guys would do.

3. Pierre would cost the Sox next to nothing to acquire, because the Dodgers so badly want to get out from under his salary (they have Manny, Kemp, and Ethier locked into their OF) and for some retarded reason, no one in baseball appreciates Pierre's value.

4. With Rios around, Pierre can play left, where he'd actually be a plus defender and his lack of an arm would be better hidden.

5. Pierre knows how to win, having sparked the 2003 Marlins to the World Series by hitting over .300 with 12 R, 7 RBI, 6 extra base hits, 3 steals, and 8 walks in 17 playoff games that year. He also showed himself a very impressive team player the past two seasons in LA, giving up his starting job for first the young guys and then Manny, but still bouncing back with tremendous production whenever he was called upon.


Hopefully Teahen makes me eat all three of these posts, but I fear that is not a very likely possibility, especially not for three straight seasons. I actually do have some confidence Rios can turn it around - he's a talented player and the fresh start here should make a difference. Here's to hoping the off-season was all he needed.

And if we can somehow get Juan Pierre, you're gonna see a very, very happy White Sox fan, despite Kenny's last two moves being financial missteps of a huge degree coming at the worst possible time to misspend money.

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Upon Further Review... Still "Boooooooo!"

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I've had some time to mull it over, get past the initial emotional and kneejerk reactions and really let the Getz-for-Teahen trade sink in. I've talked to a few Sox fans about the Teahen trade since it happened and most seem OK with it. The responses I keep hearing all center on how Getz isn't that great.

Sorry fellas, but you're missing the point. If you've really been living and dying with the Sox for the last 10 years, you know that aside from 2005, this team has been way, WAY too one-dimensional and consistently lost to a squad with far less talent who played the game right.

Now we finally have a guy who is exactly in that mold, a Piranha, and all of you are OK getting rid of him to add a guy who strikes out a boatload, isn't fast, isn't good, and costs a bunch more?

REALLY?

Well, for every one of you who responded as such to this trade, I want you to swear on your 2005 White Sox Media Guide that you will not complain when we inevitably go through a terrible slump next year because all of our power bats go cold at once (just like has happened every year since 2000, including 2005).

And you also can't complain about how Ozzie doesn't run enough.

And you also also can't complain about how we have no fire or grinders.

And you also also also can't complain about how our defense is subpar.

Nope, you all supported a deal that did the exact opposite of what every well-informed Sox fan wants to see out of this club - better fundamentals, more speed, more small ball, strong defense, more bunting, players hitting behind runners, fewer Ks, a more consistent offense, etc etc etc etc etc.

Now you must suffer in silence.


Here's why, in convenient list form:

1) Getz deserved more of a chance to show what he could do. He had flashes of being a plus average hitter and getting on base with consistency, and he was certainly capable at second and a great base-stealer. All the talk leading into the season was that he had a good swing that would hold up and how Getz should develop into a nice major leaguer. So why give up on the kid after one year - a year when he was at least capable?

Wouldn't an energetic, plus average, solid OBA, very good speed guy who'd do whatever you asked to help the team win be a great guy to lock down 2B and the 9th spot (or eventually even the #2 slot) in the order for the next 5-7 years? Especially when he'd cost peanuts that whole time?


2) Not convinced? OK, so let's give the Sox the benefit of the doubt and say Getz wasn't a big leaguer. Very plausible - the guy certainly didn't light it up and might not have much upside. Plus who was the last guy the Sox got rid of who consistently excelled (strictly from a numbers perspective)?

Even accepting we got better just by not giving Getz 600 ABs, the correct move was to go out and find a better version of that exact type of ballplayer! The Sox DESPERATELY need speed, grit, and consistency. They need more guys who won't allow Ozzie to use a one-dimensional lineup as an excuse to avoid small ball. They need more guys who can help spark the offense during the inevitable and frequent lulls that the sluggers will go through. So if Getz wasn't the answer, work the phones and find someone who is.

While we haven't really had to regret the on-field performance of players they jettisoned (at least not from anyone doing it year in and year out), we absolutely have had to regret the loss of a player's fire, style, and intangibles. You think that 2006 Sox team, with all the talent of the 2005 team PLUS Thome and Vazquez, failed in part because they missed the energy and attitude brought by Rowand, Willie Harris, and Carl Everett?

Or last year's team, which had far more talent than the 2008 team - you think it's a coincidence that The OC and Swish were playing in October while the Sox were out golfing? Numbers aside, these guys provided the Sox chemistry elements we desperately needed. The talk of the entire 2008 season was how that clubhouse was unlike anything anyone had seen in baseball.

One obvious major factor was Swish, with his crazy, fun-loving antics. On a club full of guys like Paulie and Quentin, who take every bad at-bat so hard, you need someone to keep things loose. Coupled with "The King of the Shaving Cream Pie to the Face" Toby Hall, the Sox were more able to roll with the inevitable ups and downs of a long season.

Equally necessary was Cabrera filling the role previously held by Big Frank - that of "dick." On a team of laid back, self-focused guys like Paulie and Thome, you need the intense competitor who doesn't accept less than the best from those around him. And not in a nice way either - a guy who intimidates others into keeping their focus and doing things right because they don't want to piss off the douchebag. AJ fills the role admirably, but when he's the only one, it doesn't have as much of an impact. Add in a second dick, and now guys have to really concern themselves with facing the wrath of a teammate unless they get their jobs done right. I think that ups the intensity and focus, keeping the team playing as it needs to day in and day out.

Similarly, the Sox need a few Getz-like types to bring a bit of energy and grit, to be the lunch box guy doing whatever is needed. I'm not asking for a whole squad full like the Twins have - just a few of them to make the Sox a bit more dynamic. Steal a base, move a guy over, hustle to break up a double play - these little things take pressure off everyone else and get them focusing on doing little things themselves.

Consider this - 1st and 2nd, yet another Sox longballer up w/ no outs. They swing away - good odds are that if they are fortunate enough to avoid the double play, they still won't get a hit or move the runners. Now Quentin follows, and is immediately trying to do too much. He's thinking about how he needs to hit a big 3-run jack to salvage what started as a nice rally but is fast becoming a huge missed opportunity. At the same time, the pitcher is now feeling more confident, working with all the pressure on the hitter. The odds are stacked against CQ coming through.

The alternative - same no out situation, but now a Getz-like player bunts, sets up a 2nd and 3rd with one out for Quentin. CQ is now looking only to drive the ball and bring in a single run w/ a sac fly. Pressure's off and he's in a place to succeed. At the same time, the pitcher is feeling the heat, knowing even a good pitch can plate a run and a bad one can blow open the game. Odds have now swung significantly in the Sox favor.

Over the course of a 162-game season, that situation presents itself over and over. For the last 10 years, the Sox have built their team in a way that puts themselves in the first situation far, far more often than the second. That not only leads to fewer wins, but it leads to longer losing streaks and more frustrated, inconsistent hitters. Eliminating a Getz-type from the roster for a non-Getz type will only exacerbate that problem, giving us more stretches of futile offense and loss ground in the standings.


3) So you don't like Getz and don't even think we need (or can get) a similar player who's more capable? You're an idiot, but I'll humor you for a second. Tell me - what on Earth does Teahen bring to this team, besides $2M in lost payroll and at-bats being taken up by a mediocre hitter? That $2M that could have gotten us another strong veteran arm in the bullpen, something every contending team always needs. And as I made clear in my last post, Teahen's got no power, doesn't hit for average, isn't fast, and isn't great on D. And here's something I missed before - he strikes out all the time. Isn't that exactly the opposite of the type of guy we want to get 500 plus ABs next year? What possible good can come from his presence in the lineup every day?


4) Now let's just say that Getz tanks and Teahen does have a solid season. The trade works out perfectly for the Sox. I still don't like moving a guy out of third base who showed himself capable of playing there. Check the Hall of Fame or the list of needs teams are entering this (or any) off-season with. It's clear as day that the hot corner is one of the hardest positions to fill. So why the hell are the Sox moving Beckham away from this spot?

Beckham looks like a shoe-in to be a productive big leaguer for years and won't cost you much of anything for another 4-5 seasons. Isn't that the perfect way to cover one of the harder to fill spots on the diamond? I mean even if Teahen does have a fluke great season (remember, he's been completely mediocre for three straight years), that only means you'll have to pay him a bunch of money in 2011, most likely for a return-to-form mediocre season. Heck even if he somehow strings two good years together, that just means you're losing him to free agency in 2012.

So why move Beckham away for the longshot of two good years of Teahen? To clear room for Viciedo, who everyone says is already overweight and only 20? As I am living proof of, it does NOT get easier to lose weight the older you get... pretty much the exact opposite. To open up a spot for some other prospect who's gonna come up and probably suck, a la Fields, BA, Owens, Borchard, etc? Just ask Cub fans how fun the almost uninterrupted three decades of 3B futility after Santo were.


5) Accepting that Getz sucks, Teahen is good, and you do find a longterm answer at 3B along the way - why on Earth would you move a franchise guy capable at another position to 2B, one of the easiest spots to fill? Especially when 2B is the perfect place to find a guy who can hit for average, has good speed, and will get his uniform dirty - i.e. the exact type of players we've been missing since 05? Go back over the last 3-5 years - guys like Polanco, Loretta, Grudzlanek, DeRosa, Iwamura, Matsui, Castillo, Iguchi, Counsell have all helped some contending team make the playoffs, win pennants, and earn rings by doing the little things from the 2B position.

If Beckham came up as a 2B and/or couldn't play anywhere else, so be it. But why would you make a franchise guy learn his third position in a year's time, just to fill a 2B slot when it's so easy to find needed grinders to do the same thing?


This deal has just thrown my whole outlook for this off-season. Despite our struggles this past year, the Sox were evolving slowly into the type of team I wanted - a dynamic lineup that could hit for average and run just as well as beat you with the longball. A young nucleus of all-around players surrounded by a strong supporting cast. A deep starting staff, a strong back of the rotation, and capable arms to bridge the two.

Sure, we're still missing some pieces. It's not clear who will lead off nor how we'll take advantage of the DH opening. The bench needs some retooling. And the bullpen definitely requires some significant investment.

But I love the idea of Quentin, Alexei, Beckham, and Rios in the heart of the order, bringing average, speed, and pop. I like proven vets Konerko and AJ around them.

And I liked that Getz would be in place to pair with a legit lead-off hitter and maybe a more dynamic DH to give this team a scary, multi-dimensional offensive attack.

Looking at it now, I can live w/ losing Getz if I thought the Sox would replace him with a similar player. But instead we're gonna see a lot of at-bats of Teahen being horrendously mediocre, probably paired with a traditional slugging type left-handed DH (Thome and Matsui are the hottest rumors) that will tip the scales back to a beer league softball approach to the offense. The ability of Quentin, Alexei, Beckham, and Rios to run? That becomes a novelty item that won't factor into a day-to-day offense that lives and dies (and more often dies, as the last 10 years have shown) by hot streaks and timely hitting.

Too bad, because the rotation looks damn good with Buerhle, Danks, and Floyd giving you nasty middle of the rotation work behind Peavy and in front of a capable vet w/ upside in Garcia. Jenks and Thorton are tough in the back of the pen, while Carrasco, Pena, and Linebrink have the ability to be solid middle guys. Sure you still need another lefty and probably another capable righty to have a contending-caliber bullpen, but that's doable.

The pitching is close to being there - we just needed the right defense and lineup to make it all work. Another title was a realistic goal.


Well, it's impossible to predict what direction Kenny will go in, so I owe him the full off-season before I make my final conclusions on what to expect from the 2010 Sox. But step 1 has been pretty objectionable in going in the exact opposite direction we need to.

I'm so frustrated by this that I had to post twice on the topic because I just can't handle yet another season of having the most talented club in the division but doing nothing with it because we again we're too naive/delusional/incompetent/stubborn to ensure the team was built with a championship mix.


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Really, Kenny?!?

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I know Kenny deserves the benefit of the doubt, given his long history of great trades, especially all those that were initially very poorly received. But I've been reviewing this Getz-for-Teahen deal from every angle and just do not get it. And I really don't get why the baseball pundits out there seem to think this is a reasonable deal.



First off, I like Getz. Is he great? Nope, but I think he can be a .280+ hitter who steals 20+ bases (w/ getting thrown out much), plays solid D, and gets on at around a .350 clip. He'll be cheap and capable.

I also think Getz has got real upside - not star upside, but help you win upside. I see him being sure-handed in the field, running the bases well, making good contact, developing into a bunter - ya know, doing the things we all whine and cry for all season as the Twins are whooping our over-paid, fundamentally retarded asses.

And I really love that Getz will do it all while costing us next to nothing for the next 3-5 years. Don't discount how huge it is to get a starter-caliber player for right near the league minimum. That opens up significant resources that can be spent elsewhere (like in the bullpen, the one area besides the leadoff spot where the Sox have a boatload of questions to answer heading into 2010).


Second, Teahen's absolute ceiling is a decent Util guy. He has no power, no average, no speed, and is nothing special on D. And he's not young, so what you've seen in KC is what you get.

Don't give me that "career numbers in the Cell" garbage. Sometimes a guy can go to a better park and thrive (see everyone in Texas and Cincy), but as I learned w/ Swish, you can't automatically count on it elevating a guy.

And don't give me that "left-handed" guy crap - his numbers against righties are just as crappy as his overall stats.

So from what the 28-year old Teahen has shown in his almost 2500 career ABs over 5 years, if he's playing every day, we're a crappy ballclub. He just doesn't have the production to play 1B, 3B, or corner OF on a good team. He's a career .269-.331-.419 guy who averages about 9 steals a year and plays decent but not exceptional D.

To put those numbers in perspective - they'd be mediocre for a 2B or SS, let alone the corner spots. Or more specifically, Scotty Pods this year, Brian Anderson in 2008, and Rob Mackowiak in 2007 all had higher slugging percentages than Teahen has had in any of the last three seasons. Just look at that list of players. Now think about the fact that they had MORE power than Teahen. Yep.

Simply put, as a corner IF or OF, Teahen brings nothing to the table, and by playing everyday, he keeps you from getting ABs from someone who could actually help you at those spots.


Third, while I like Teahen as a corner Util, there are two major issues with acquiring him for that role. We already have Kotsay as our 1B/OF util, just signed today for the same $1.5M he made last year. Kotsay is no great shakes, but he plays solid D, does the little things well, is a good pinch hitter, and appreciates his role. That makes him nearly ideal in that role, and means Teahen adds nothing to our squad we don't already have.

More important though, Teahen is also WAY overpaid. He made almost $4M last year and will earn more this year in arbitration. For a util guy? And not even an exceptional one or one w/ upside? Especially when we're already pushing up against our own payroll restrictions and in need of help in multiple areas?!? If KC just gave us Teahen for a bag of balls (i.e. Josh Fields), I'd still be pissed, given what he'll make in arbitration and how we need to keep what little payroll we have available for more pressing needs this off-season.


So why the hell are we giving up viable younger starting player like Getz for an overpaid, underwhelming player with no upside who can only fill a role we just signed someone to fill? Especially in this day of of cheap and young being all the rage when you're building a roster?


Here's the only way this deal makes any sense:

First - if dumping Getz leads to moving Alexei back to 2B, keeping Becks at 3rd, and finding a real plus defensive SS. I like Getz and hate to see him go, but I'm not sold that Alexei can ever be a SS on a winner. Two years in a row he's totally lacked the mental focus to get the job done. At least when Alexei was at 2B he saw fewer plays, they weren't as demanding, and overall felt less pressure. I'd say Alexei was probably a good to average 2B in 2008. This year at short he was well below average and a big reason we had to watch Game 163 between two garbage Central rivals. So if the price of keeping Alexei (a talent who we can't give up on yet) and not having him play SS is losing Getz, then so be it.

This does open the question as to who will play short, but I think the Sox could get away with a vet who's a real plus defender and does the little things while hitting #9 (sort of a Getz replacement). You've got a great pitching staff that's costing you a huge part of your payroll - it only makes sense to support them with a tremendous defense.


Second - if the Royals send us some money to make Teahen affordable as a utility player. His ability to play a number of different spots and hit respectably makes Teahen a nice bench player. Sure we've already got Kotsay there, but its possible the Sox will be going with a very flexible roster this year, utilizing the DH spot to mix-and-match the lineup as needed. In such a scenario, two bench spots can be effectively used on Teahen and Kotsay. The only downside there becomes Teahen's salary, but if they can sign him for $4M and get KC to cover $2M (which they might, given the cost-savings Getz and Fields offer), then Teahen is at a pricepoint and in a limited role that allows him to actually be an asset to the 2010 Sox.

I'm a big proponent of a strong bench, and Teahen can be a strong bench player. But the Sox just can't be spending relatively big bucks on bench players this offseason, and thus this deal stinks of we're on the hook for over $4M to Teahen next season.


But lord help us if Mark Teahen ends up starting in the OF or at 3B next year, as many are speculating this move entails. That will be a disaster similar to the Wise fiasco this year - expecting too much out of a guy who's spent his whole career proving he can't get it done, and then struggling all season long to find a proper replacement. How this giant lump of mediocrity is being bandied around as a Jermaine Dye replacement in all the latest trade reports is incredible to me. It'd take Teahen between a year and half and two years to give the Sox the 30 HRs and 90+ RBI that Dye averaged on the South Side.

As I said, I know I owe Kenny the benefit of the doubt based on how well so many of his deals have turned out.

But I also can't forget the way Kenny turned a championship team into an also-ran by purging all its attitude guys (Frank, Willie Harris, Everett, and Rowand), the way did the exact same thing to the division title team last year (dumping OC and Swish), the way he flopped on remaking the 2007 pen, OF, and top of the order, and the way he still hasn't gotten this team to look any better fundamentally, despite years and years and years of losing to the fundamentally sound Twins while Kenny and Ozzie swear that next year, the Sox will play better fundamental ball.

As of yet, the deal hasn't been confirmed by anyone, and could very well look different than it's being reported. Kenny's MO is to have the final deal resemble nothing of the talk ahead of time (if there even was any talk ahead of time). But as it stands, I'm gonna be furious if we lose Getz only to overpay Teahen, and I'm gonna be really furious if Teahen's being acquired to play more than 2-3 times a week, max.


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Ozzie Should Be Feeling The Heat

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What a frustrating year to be a Sox fan. In fact, if it wasn't for a pretty brutal collapse by the Twins last year, this would be second straight season that Ozzie had lead a talented team who got some great years out of a lot of their players to a garbage also-ran finish.

Actually, it's worse than that. If the Twins hadn't collapse that weekend after they swept the Sox, Ozzie's post-World Series record would look like this:

• 2006 - Powerhouse offense leads a team that falls apart embarrassingly in the second half.
• 2007 - Worst season on the South Side since the late 80s.
• 2008 - Great break-out years from Alexei, Carlos, Danks, and Floyd all wasted on team incapable of winning a garbage division.
• 2009 - Strong rookie years from Getz and Beckham, solid years top-to-bottom from the vets, and a Top 3 of the rotation and Top 5 in the pen all w/ ERAs below 4 still incapable of winning another garbage division.

Is it revisionist history to ignore that the Twins did collapse and the fact that the Sox did what they needed in those last two pressure-filled games? Sure, a little bit.

But the point remains that the difference between Ozzie getting no heat from the press (as is the current situation) and getting a whole bunch is one lousy weekend by the Twins. And to me, that's BS. I'm looking bigger picture and I'm seeing Kenny building talented teams, seeing Reinsdorf's group spending good money, and I'm seeing Ozzie doing jack squat with it since that magical 2005 run.

It's time Ozzie has to answer the bell for what this team hasn't been able to do since winning the Series - i.e. be a legit contender. It was nice to win a division and make the playoffs last year, but the reality is we weren't ever considered a post-season threat. And we lived up to that, meekly bowing out to an inexperienced Rays squad in 4.

This year, there was some hope it'd all come together down the stretch and that with a full-go Peavy in the fold, the Sox would be dangerous. But I'm sorry, I've given up on that dream after what I've seen recently. And I'm generally as optimistic about the Sox as anyone.

To me, it's clear that Ozzie just hasn't been able to rediscover whatever it was he did right in 2005. None of his teams these past four seasons have been able to get it done consistently, despite having loads of players playing well. There just seems to be something missing - and it's different every year.

But one thing has been the same - Ozzie. So I'm gonna blame him for not being able to get the vets to hit with any consistency. I'm gonna blame him for not having anyone who can lay down a bunt.

Sidebar: Guess who's leading all of baseball (or near the lead) in sacrifice bunts this year? Javier Vazquez. So either Ozzie was too stupid or uncreative to realize he had a good bunter on his roster this whole time, or it's not that hard to figure out how to bunt if it's demanded of you (as it is by the Atlanta coaching staff of their pitchers).

I'm gonna blame Ozzie for how terrible the defense has been this season, despite having great athletes and good tools guys at every spot. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for how the bullpen fell apart in 2006, got worse in 2007, and again fell apart in 2008. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for not finding himself another leadoff hitter to replace Pods once he fell apart in 2006, until Pods magically returned to form this year. I'm gonna blame Ozzie for being unable to develop talented athletes who looked great in his farm system (Fields, Owens, BA).


And do you know what else I'm gonna blame Ozzie for? Not being able to close out series. This year, the Sox are 12-26 in the last game of a series. That's .316 baseball, or good enough for 111 losses if you played that way all year. 111 losses. That's the kind of team Ozzie puts out in the most important game of the series.

That last game always turns the whole feel of the series. Obviously when you're tied 1-1, that game dictates who gets the ever-important series win. If you're down 0-2 or 0-3, avoiding the sweep is huge. Same the other way - not letting that sweep get away from you on the last day is big to getting a nice win streak going.

Most telling of all - in this last month, Ozzie's guys have not won one single final game of a series. With all the pressure on, with every game possibly meaning the series, with every bit of momentum necessary to grind through these final weeks of the season, the Sox have put up a big giant goose egg in the most important game of each series.


Look, Ozzie is an above average manager, no question. But that's not saying much - there are a ton of bad managers out there. What is clear to me is that Ozzie is not one of the great managers. Gardenhire (MIN), Mike Scioscia (LAA), Torre (LAD), LaRussa (STL), and Cox (ATL) are all clearly in a class above Ozzie.

Does that mean the Sox should fire Ozzie? I can't say I'd support that - as I said, there just are too few good managers out there. But I do think Kenny needs to make clear that Ozzie's performance isn't cutting it. I think they need to upgrade the rest of the coaching staff - bringing in a bench coach who can provide Ozzie with a bit of strategy (something he never shows an ability to do himself) and a third base coach who has a clue (man I hate Cox - never have I seen a third base coach who is both too conservative and too aggressive... he is SO clueless!).

But most of all, I think Ozzie needs to be made to understand that he's not getting it done. He needs to feel more personal responsibility for the failures in base-running, defense, bunting, and other fundamentals. That stuff is about attitude and commitment, not talent, and those come from the manager.

If the Sox don't have the pitching or hitting to win, so is life. But the Sox have had those things in pretty much every year Ozzie has been here, yet only once have they ever done anything with it. It's time Ozzie realizes his job is to be more than a mouthpiece for the club. It's time he approaches his job like NFL coaches approach theirs - working 20 hour days, taking in every bit of film possible, spending hours in strategy meetings, working with his entire staff at all times. It's time he realizes that he alone will determine if they execute, if they play good fundamental baseball, if they take pride in their defense and base-running.

Because the Sox have the talent - they've had it for years - but they don't have the execution. And that execution in all those facets is on Ozzie, and Ozzie alone.


It's probably too late this year, but I want the Sox to get something out of this wasted year and that something is Ozzie realizing he needs to completely rededicate himself to his job, with the help of a couple of highly committed, highly intelligent baseball guys as his bench and third base coaches.

Combine that with the impressive collection of talent this club has next year and 2010 can be something special, another 2005 for us all. But if Ozzie doesn't get it together with some help from a new staff, then I foresee another frustrating year of shoulda-woulda-couldas on the Southside.


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What the Rios Acquisition Means

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I have absolutely no time to do this right now, with a wicked busy week of work, my 19th annual fantasy football draft in less than two weeks, and a 1-month old at home... but come on, that was a MAJOR move last night with all sorts of implications and I've just been swallowing my Sox thoughts for too long. So here goes...

First off, let's respect who Alex Rios really is:

• He's 6-5 and came up as a 5-tool player with pretty high upside. He's 28, not turning 29 until next February. This is his 6th full season in the bigs, all played in Toronto. He's twice been an All-Star and was 5th in ROY voting in 2004.
  

• His contract only requires $5.9M this season (hence how the Sox could make the move work now), a reasonable $9.7M next year, then basically $12.5M per from 2011 to 2015 (tho the last year is a team option).
  

• He's a career .285 hitter, and that is a fairly accurate representation of what to expect, based on what he's done in 6 years so far. He'll be about a .285 hitter over the long haul, with some year-to-year variation up to .305 or down to .265.
  

• He'll hit anywhere between 15 and 25 HRs (probably more in the Cell), while adding another 40+ doubles each year (he's very consistently reached that mark). Depending on where he is in the order, he's a likely 80-90 RBI type.
  

• He'll steal between 15 and 30 bases, and do so at about a 75% clip (a real good rate).
  

• The knock on the guy - he's not a patient hitter, with an OBA only about 50 points over his average (you'd like to be about 80 points over) and he will strike out 100 times a year.
  

• Defense is always hard to gauge, but his 5-tool status, time in right field, and assist numbers all suggest he's got a pretty good arm. He's mainly played right, but that seems to be only because Vernon Wells was always there in center. When Wells was hurt, Rios played a lot of center (20 games in 07, 60 last year). Is he a capable defender in center? That seems to be the biggest question when trying to grasp what the Sox got. Because offensively, he's been remarkably consistent - what I listed above is what you can expect. Whether or not he can be a capable CF is something only time will tell. However, I have heard it stated that Rios is a natural centerfielder and the return to that spot should help him defensively. Hearing that, I'm beginning to see the wisdom of the move - Rios could be the franchise CF the Sox have long sought.
  

What does all this mean to me? I think it means the Sox picked up a real asset for the years moving forward. I think Rios has the average, power, and speed to be a real dynamic force in the Sox lineup. In recent years we've all bemoaned the low average, low mobility, home run or nothing nature of this team. But all of the sudden Kenny has totally changed the make-up and Rios fits perfectly right in.

The Sox now are looking at a core of relatively young hitters capable of hitting for a good average, flashing 20 HR power, and stealing 10 to 20+ bases. Look at what the Sox are going to be running out there for the next half decade or more:

Quentin (turns 27 at the end of August) - struggled with injuries this year that sapped his average, but still has 11 HRs in 200 ABs. Lately he's started to turn it on again, though the real hope is that by next year Carlos will be back to the .285, 35 HR, 115 RBI, .400 OBA, 10 SB beast he showed the ability to be last year. That 10+ steal speed can't be over-looked, but not even for the steals themselves. It's more that Carlos has shown he's not a base-clogging type slugger, and that can be a real advantage to a lineup's dynamic and consistency.

Beckham (turns 23 in mid-September) - let's not forget that he had only 2 hits (both singles) in his first 28 at-bats. Since then? Beckham has hit .339 w/ 6 HRs and 19 doubles in 177 ABs. Who do I see him resembling, production-wise? Chipper Jones - just with a bit fewer walks and homers. We're talking a consistent .300 average, 100 runs, and 100 RBI. And while he won't steal a ton of bases (4 so far this year, but been thrown out 4 times as well), Beckham definitely can move around the bases.

Ramirez (turns 28 in mid-September) - a lot of the fan and media excitement with Alexei has soured this year, but I'm not sure why. He's hitting a respectable .270 and on pace for both 17 HRs and 17 SB - those are good numbers from a middle infielder. Sure Alexei has made too many mistakes, especially mentally, in the field this year. But I see upside on both fronts, as Alexei can easily be a .290 to .300 hitter (after struggling to a .214 April, he's posted months of .281, .283, .298, and .300) with 25 HRs and 20 steals. Remember, after a rough start last year, he still hit .290 w/ 21 HRs and 13 steals on the season. Defensively, it's hard to be sure he'll figure it out, but Alexei certainly has all the tools, so I'm guessing he'll settle in to be a plus defender despite the occasional mental lapses.

Getz (turns 26 at the end of August) - he's been a bit up and down this year (hit .340 in April, then .200 in May, up a tick to .247 in June, then hot again with a .324 in July, and now settled in at .286 in August). But Getz is a rookie, so that is to be expected. Overall, he's around .270 and from what I've seen and heard, I think he can be a consistent .280-.290 hitter. Getz doesn't have a ton of power and isn't an OBA guy, but he does only have 43 Ks in 310 ABs (with the great majority coming when he struggled in May and June). Add in the that he's on pace for over 25 steals and only 3 or 4 times caught, and you start to see his value. His average, speed, and contact abilities make him a valuable piece to a dynamic offense.

Rios (turns 29 in mid-February) - as I mentioned above, this is a guy who will hit .285 with 20+ HRs, 40+ doubles, and 20+ steals. That makes him the 4th guy in your lineup who can drive in 90+ runs but still flash good speed on the bases. Throw Getz and whomever you've got leading off into the mix, and now the Sox have six different guys playing everyday who can go first-to-third or score from second on a single. Guys you can hit-and-run with or can feel confident sending with two outs and a guy capable of leading off the next inning at the dish.


That's my excitement in this move - that Rios fits in so well with what they already are building. Gone is the beer league softball approach, with the slow, aging sluggers. Gone are the failed prospects with holes in their swings and their sub .250 averages. Instead, there's a core of guys you can expect to hit for average and flash some speed - the two things I firmly believe a lineup needs to win consistently in the regular and post seasons - but still have the power needed to compete in the AL out of a home field like the Cell.

Sure there are other moves to be made down the road, but for now AJ and Paulie can be expected to be assets for another few seasons. Rios, as a righty, seems to preclude bringing back Dye, but Thome still seems to fit - they've got a DH spot and a need for a left-handed slugger for the heart of the order. And who knows - maybe they see Rios or Getz as a capable lead-off hitter next season, and thus Dye can return, with Rios playing center and Carlos in left.

To me that's the only question remaining in the lineup - how to fill the vastly under-rated but completely crucial leadoff spot next year. Is it Pods? Is he for real? Can he stay healthy and productive? Cause we've been burned by him before, and now he's only gotten older. Is it Rios or Getz? Neither is the prototypical leadoff guy, having neither much experience nor the pure speed or on-base abilities you'd expect. Is it someone from outside (Pierre, Figgins, Damon, etc)? With Peavy and Rios in the mix now and Thome and/or Dye possibly back, how much money do they really have left to add someone like that?

That is gonna be one of the critiques of this move - the Sox are paying way too much for what Rios gives you. But I disagree on two levels. First, the acquisition cost of Rios was nothing - they lost no prospects or pieces in getting him. That's significant and must be included when considering his salary. Second, you can't compare last year's off-season OF signings to what Rios could get on the open market. Ibanez, Bradley, and Abreu were all much older than Rios. Only Dunn is close in age, and he carried a limited appeal both because he's such a poor defender anywhere on the diamond and because his game is one-dimensional.

The fact is that Rios is entering his prime, has shown All-Star abilities (twice), and even in a "down" year, is still on pace to hit 20 HRs, score 75 R, drive in 90, and steal 25 bases. If that is this kid's floor and he really can play a solid CF, you don't think he's worth $12M per during his prime?


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Can The Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up?

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So anytime the 2009 Sox want to really convince me of the kind of team they are, that'd be just great. I mean is this the team who stumbled along in April? Or the one that bottomed out in Toronto in mid-May? Or the team who roared back with 10 wins in 13 games right after that? Or maybe they're the team who followed that resurgence with a depressing 8 home losses in 9 days?

My hope? The rough start was a matter of finding the right lineup mix and getting the starting pitching on track, the brutal home stand a fluky blip, and this on-going string of 8 straight series wins (excluding that horrible home stand and the series split at Wrigley) is the real McCoy.

It could be the case. Sure, I'm a hopeless optimist when it comes to the ChiSox, but I really believe they might have the right mix going. Yes, they have some areas to improve and some things they need to do differently, but I think they're closer to another playoff appearance than they are another disappointing lost season.

Here's my current state of the team:

Scotty Pods has been a godsend. A bit lucky (on pace to have his best year ever, after being cut by a last place team) and a bit wise (he's always had the potential to be a great leadoff hitter, something few guys in all of baseball can say), this move could very easily be seen as the season saver.

It's why I keep harping on the importance of a good lead-off guy and why I'll go to the grave screaming that teams need to give the $200M deals to lead-off guys (who truly are irreplaceable, hard to come by, and make everyone better) and not middle of the lineup sluggers (who are easy to replace, easy to find, and don't seem to have a major impact on a team, either when they are added or subtracted).

Don't believe me? Then look at two of the more maligned classic leadoff hitters of our time - Pods and Juan Pierre - and see what happens when these guys are playing good baseball. The Dodgers lost freakin Manny and didn't miss a beat offensively, because Pierre came in and sparked the whole lineup. As we all know, it's been the exact same thing on the Southside, with Pods making it all go. Every single other player is better because of what he's doing at the top of the order.

Really glad to see Alexei back to hitting like he should. In May and June, he hit around .280 and drove in runs at a 90 RBI pace. That's impressive in a lineup that still isn't clicking and out of the #2 slot. However, I actually don't like Alexei in the #2 spot. He's not a grinder type and is too good of a talent to be buried trying to hit behind guys or bunt unless fully necessary.

Especially given the struggles in the back of the lineup, the Sox need him to be batting 6th or 7th. If you're into the righty-lefty thing, put AJ 6th and Alexei 7th, with Alexei moving up to #6 when AJ sits (instead of having your back-up catcher, Castro, be Paulie's protection). That's where this kid will thrive - he'll provide a bit of speed after the sluggers, but he'll also give you consistency in the back of the lineup and a run-producing bat to follow up the heart of the order.

Personally I'm turning 2B into a platoon, with Getz and Nix splitting time and handling the #2 slot. Both have shown decent flashes offensively and defensively, and both could be solid big leaguers. I think both the team and the players would prosper from a pure platoon and from asking these two to take over the #2 role.

With Pods playing as he is and the middle of the order hitting solidly, you just want your #2 to make productive outs. Bunt, hit behind guys, execute hit-and-runs, occasionally get a hit or drive in a run, and show some speed when you're on the base paths. Getz and Nix just might be able to do that.

But what I really like about that is that you're taking the pressure off of these guys. Instead of asking them to go out and be a plus hitter - a real challenge for any major leaguer - you're asking them just to be productive in their at-bats. Lower the bar for success. You're hitting .240? No problem, as long as you're getting down bunts, making contact, and working the pitcher.

Ozzie got a lot of credit in 2005 for putting his guys in a place to succeed and I really think he deserved it. But he's gotten away from that since and now, with all these youngsters, he needs to get back to it. Both Getz and Nix could really profit if you lowered the expectations and gave them simple assignments they were capable of - such as putting in productive at-bats out of the #2 slot.

And if they do fail, I'm going back to AJ in the #2 slot. As I posted before, he's not a great run producer and never has been. But his Minnesota background and approach to the game make him a capable #2 hitter. No, he's not ideal, but he can get it done. So if the two kids aren't cutting it, then throw AJ up there. Again, put the guy in a place to succeed - and in the #2 hole, a lot of AJ's flaws are hidden and a lot of his assets utilized.

In the heart of the order, the Sox have something going that I never would have expected. First off, they've been productive despite getting almost nothing out of CQ. Given the rock that he was last year, how they've played over Quentin's early struggles and current injury is impressive. But the other thing I wouldn't have guessed is that all three aging sluggers would be having good, but not great years. I figured one guy would get hot, one would be OK, and one would struggle.

So far, all three guys have gotten the job done, while none of them has really gone off. JD has the highest average, most home runs, and best slugging. But it's telling that he still isn't leading the team in RBI. That title goes to Paulie, who's driven in 49 to Dye's 48, despite fewer jacks and a slugging percentage below .500. Thome's only hitting .247, but he gets on at an impressive .402 clip, and his 13 HRs and 42 RBI have seemed to come when the Sox need it most.

In all, each of these guys has been productive, but each has some room to get hot and really carry the squad. Especially if the Sox get CQ back, the heart of the order could be the steady, dangerous, run-producing collection we've always hoped for out of these highly paid guys.

Of course, if Quentin does come back in good health and productivity, there's gonna be a bit of a log jam in the lineup. I know Kenny and Ozzie don't care, but it's gonna absolutely kill us to have Pods playing center every day. Sure you can finagle some starts for BA by giving Pods, Paulie, Thome, Dye, and CQ needed breaks, but you're still looking at about 50-60% of your games start in center by Pods.

I've watched the guy for a number of years and this year is by far the worst I've ever seen of Pods in the field - and I thought he was terrible before. He's hesitant, uncomfortable, has surprisingly iffy range, and rarely seems to make catches that aren't routine. After seeing how detrimental a terrible defensive center-fielder can be (Mackowiak or Griffey, anyone?) and comparing that to the advantage a great defender like Rowand or BA is, I just don't see how Kenny and Ozzie can think Pods in center is a legit way to win a title.

But what alternative do the Sox have? Well, if CQ proves healthy in the two weeks he's back before the deadline, you can deal Dye, leave Pods in left, and move CQ to right. But that's a very risky proposition - how confident can you be after even the best couple of weeks by CQ? Can you really deal a key heart of the order component when your alternatives are a guy with a major foot issue, an aging slugger with back issues, and a highly inconsistent head case coming off two bad seasons?

Instead, my guess is that Quentin gets a lot of days off, the others are rested here and there (Thome against lefties, Dye and Paulie to keep fresh), and BA (or god, forbid, Wise) remain fairly regular CFs.

Speaking of BA, I'm absolutely fine with him as a full-time CF on this squad. Sure, our back of the lineup is hurting, but with the right moves, it doesn't have to be. As I mentioned, I'd move the Getz/Nix platoon up to #2 and Alexei down, so instead of a dead 7-9, you've just got your 8-9 as holes. And as I'll detail in a minute, I don't think Beckham can be considered a hole any more. It's still early, but he's starting to look very legit.

With a productive Beckham and Alexei down in the lineup, BA can slide into the #9 slot, hit his .240-.260, get on base at a decent clip, show some speed and power, and most importantly, be an absolute beast in centerfield. Given Pods' weakness in left and Dye's declining range (tho he remains a strong fielder, just not covering a ton of ground), BA's defensive work is fully necessary. Especially given the premium we put on our pitching, we need our defense to be top notch. And that means BA has to get regular ABs, even if he's ugly at the plate, even if it means more rest for your sluggers than you'd prefer.

Finally, we come to Beckham, who might very well follow up the amazing emergence of CQ and Alexei with one of his own this season. Remember, this kid started off 0 for 13. Take that small adjustment blip away, and you realize that despite being only a year out of college, he's hitting .333 with a .485 slugging percentage in 66 ABs. And those numbers are only going up, as he's as hot as could be right now.

Sure, even in the best case he'll hit a wall at some point. But if Beckham can end the year where he is now - a .280 average, .360 OBA, and solid speed and pop - then the Sox will be in good shape, both for this year and the future.

The real question is can he handle himself defensively. That's been the one frustrating part about the Sox recent run - that it could have been even better had they just played good defense. Beckham and Alexei are making way too many mistakes over on the left side of the infield and those mistakes are putting pressure on everyone else and resulting in more errors and bad plays.

I'm looking to the top for blame here - it's on Ozzie to have these guys in the right mindset to play good defensive baseball. And that's what it is - a mindset. There needs to be a pride and obsession with defense, a team-wide commitment to impressive work in the field on every single play. Not just with the glove and throws, but in knowing where to be, where to go, how to handle situations.

Again we're back to the fundamentals - and again that's on Ozzie (and in a macro-perspective, Kenny). This team has the pieces. Pods is setting the table, the middle of the order is doing well enough to produce runs, and the back of the order is even coming around. As long as Pods isn't in center, the defensive set-up is filled with solid or plus defenders. Now it's on Ozzie to ensure they play up to their capabilities.

If the Sox do that - if they field well and execute the little things - then this team is fully capable of anything, even a title. But if they don't, they just aren't talented enough to overcome poor play for a whole season and into the playoffs.

Some final quick thoughts on our hitters. First, I'd probably be looking to upgrade the Josh Fields spot. Find me another Uribe or Blum on a non-contender, a veteran who can handle the glove and be reliable. Fields never really got a full shot and might still have some talent, but Beckham has clearly passed him by and this team needs to be at its best for this year. Fields doesn't bring anything, at least not compared to what a proven veteran utility guy could.

Wise actually has a role on this team as a pinch hitter/runner and defensive replacement. But he shouldn't be getting regular work in CF, especially not when CQ is back. He's solid enough in center, but BA is better, has hit better, and has more upside. Wise is a 5th OF and should be used only as such.


Now, to the pitching. Buehrle is Buehrle. This year he's been especially Buehrle, and I don't expect that to change much. But more promising is the turnaround we've seen out of Danks, Floyd, and Contreras. Danks started amazingly then really struggled, but since has righted the ship and looks to be the Johnny Danks of old. Floyd couldn't even say he struggled - he flat out sucked. But in his last 8 starts he's got a 1. something ERA and is proving that last year was no fluke.

Most impressive is definitely Contreras' rebound. He didn't even suck - he was about the worst pitcher I've seen in a while. He had flashes of good things, but it was clear that he just didn't have it together, mentally or physically. However, I hope Jose's lesson is learned by GMs everywhere - when a guy is struggling, it can help to get away from it and go back to working on the basics.

Contreras went down to AAA, away from the pressure, and immediately put it all together. He's always been on the edge of disaster even as he pitched his best - that's just the nature of his brilliance. So without it all together, he was a wreck. That time away let him get his confidence, his plan, and probably his angles and releases to where they needed to be.

The result is a Contreras as good as I've seen since his dominant 2nd half 2005 run. Coupled with Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd having front line stuff, the Sox become real scary.

Really, stop and think about that - the Sox have four different pitchers throwing at ace or near-ace levels.

If that keeps up, then this team will most certainly be in it. Even if they have another hiccup in the next few weeks, there's no reason to panic as long as that starting pitching is dealing. The division is winnable and the Sox have the talent to do it. As long as this starting pitching is throwing like this, have faith.

Having said that, the Sox still need significant contributions out of the rest of the staff to make this happen. Richard has been serviceable, which is fine out of a #5. But I think he's still got upside - I can see him getting hot for a stretch. But if not, if he goes the other way, it's nice to know we've got Colon in our back pocket. Oddly, I haven't heard much news about him since he got put on the DL around the 9th of June. He's got performance incentives, so no way he's allowing the Sox to hide him if he's healthy.

My hope is that Colon is getting back to full strength, will get some rehab work to get sharp again, and then be either a trade piece or nice insurance down the stretch. You can just never have enough pitching, and Colon was at least serviceable.

Finally, it's on to our pen. Up until a few weeks ago, they looked unreal. But since then they've really struggled. Oddly, it hasn't hurt the Sox too much. Like their defense, it looked really bad, but only kept them from being red hot instead of just hot. But also like their defense, if it doesn't get turned around, it'll be the fall of this team.

I have no worries about Jenks, except the token concern you have that everyone stays healthy. In fact, I've started to realize that Jenks is the Buehrle of relievers. Funny, given that he came up as this big, colorful, smoke-thrower. But now he's settled into a boring, veteran pitcher who quietly gets it done, minimizing any damage and coming through when it matters.

On that, why the hell are there even hints of discussions of getting rid of this guy. Like leadoff hitters, effective, steady relievers are impossible to find, yet crucial to success and also key to making everyone else better. Why in the lord's name would the Sox ever think of getting rid of a guy who makes his off-season home in Chicago and has been as steady of a closer as anyone in baseball?

Pay the damn man. Lock him up for a 3-5 year deal and make him a Chicago institution. Jenks has earned it - he is so damn steady. How many relievers in baseball have been as consistent as he has been since 2005? Rivera? Hoffman? KRod? Nathan? Papelbon? I just named the two greatest closers of all time and the top three closers in the game today. That is the company Jenks keeps.

So why on Earth would you get rid of him? At the very least you keep him for his final arbitration year. But given how he lives in Chicago and loves the organization and what it's done for him, how are you not fully committed to this guy until his arm falls off? Hello? Kenny, make it happen. Losing Jenks means we would have a big question mark at closer next year, which even if it was filled by Thornton or Linebrink, would then create a big question in the set-up roles. We're already gonna lose Dotel, so no reason to make it worse.

Plus, and this is where it ties back into this year - you never really can count on any sort of reliable set-up to your bullpen. So if you somehow have a guy in ANY role who's reliable in that role, KEEP HIM THERE FOREVER! So Jenks is a great closer - done, he's our closer forever.

For now, the hope is that Thornton and Linebrink can shake off these recent blips and be effective in the second half. Same with Dotel. All three can be lights out, all three can be a nightmare. Linebrink has a longer track record, Thornton the best stuff, and Dotel the lowest expectations (as the 7th inning situational type). But to really win, especially down the stretch and into the playoffs, we need all three, or at least two of them, reliably dealing.

One guy I continue to be pleasantly surprised about - Carrasco. At this point it's hard to say he's a fluke, as this is the second straight year he's gotten it done. Whether it's mopping up with a few innings of work or a key middle inning situation, DJ just gets it done. He has been absolutely invaluable and is the type of guy you need on any winning team - the randomly effective reliever.

While it's gotten absolutely no attention, the early work of phenom Aaron Poreda deserves mention. It's only 5 innings, but to give up no runs, only four hits, and a single walk - I'll take that all day. Throw in 6 Ks and this kid has clearly been impressive. Yes, Ozzie has protected him from tough situations, but that's how it should be. However, he needs to get more work. It won't be easy, as the rotation is chewing up innings and there are a lot of relief vets in front of him, but Poreda needs regular work to continue to develop.

If he can turn into a legit lefty option, that will give the Sox the flexibility to move Thornton into a pure set-up or even closer role in case Linebrink falters or Jenks gets hurt, or to take over for Dotel as the late-inning situational shut-down guy. Given how quickly bullpens can be shaken up, I'd love to see this kid be someone we can rely on (to say nothing of the good that portends for the future).


Up ahead we're in KC for four and then home for a quick three against Cleveland before things start to get rough. Hence, we need to continue taking series. Take three from KC and two at home against Cleveland - that'll put you in position to handle the run of Twins, Rays, Tigers, and Yanks, and Halos we've got for the next month (with only a three-game series against the Os at The Cell giving us any respite).

Got to keep on racking up the series wins and slowly, quietly getting back into things. I've got faith they can do it, but I'd like the Sox to finally reward that faith with a long enough stretch of convincingly strong play to get me squarely back believing in their post-season chances.

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