Another Key Piece... But Now What?

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I'm gonna start by reiterating what I preached on and on about when the Sox first traded for Teahen, and was even more incensed about after they gave him that absolutely indefensible, asinine 3-year extension that pays him $4.75M this year and $5.5M in 2012!?!

This guy is the poster child for mediocrity, doing a bunch of stuff just below average, without doing a single thing well. Yes, Teahen can hit left-handed, play 1B, 3B, LF, and RF, and isn't terrible in speed, power, average, or contact.

But Teahen's not good at a single one of those things - sure he's a lefty, but he's not giving you numbers you're happy about no matter which side they come from. Sure he can play any corner spot - infield or outfield - but he's not much of a defender at any of them (and looked like he really shouldn't be a 3B for more than maybe a game every week or two). And offensively, Teahen's a .260 hitter with little power who will K too much and not walk enough, who isn't exactly threatening Pierre for the team lead in steals.

The reason I'm bringing this all back up is that contract extension is looking SO painful in the face of what we're dealing with today. At best Teahen is a 1B-3B-LF-RF bench guy. I'd say he's probably comparable to a Kotsay or Blum, both of whom will make around $1-$1.5M this year. So Teahen is essentially pissing away $3.5M of Sox money each of the next two years that they desperately could have used elsewhere.

Now for some clubs, this would be only a mild annoyance. Take the Yanks or BoSox, whose payrolls are strictly based on how much money the owners want to make that year. For them, if they need that $3.5M to get a key reliever or middle infielder to put them over the top, the owners will just shrink the profits they'll make with the hope of recouping it due to a more successful team.

For other clubs, like the Cubs or Orioles, you're not really close to contending anyway, so no $3.5M piece is really making a discernible difference on the final outcome of your 2011 season anyway. So why care?

But the White Sox? That $3.5M is the difference between a revolving door of unready prospects and washed up journeymen blowing key games out of your pen, and a steady, proven veteran reliever getting the ball to your set-up men on the way to another big W.


Or at least, that's what I would have thought before yesterday. The Sox payroll was reportedly tapped out, with every last dime and creative maneuver already utilized to bring Paulie and AJ back while still adding Dunn to the fold. Holding tight seemed to be the best option, with subtraction a possibility.

And that was fine, as the team looked fairly close to where you needed it to be, and with the exception of Teahen, almost all the money was very well-spent. The one issue - a glaring hole (or maybe two) still remained in the bullpen, a place that you simply cannot win w/o being strong. And a place that $3.5M can make all the difference.

But late Wednesday, the Sox somehow found another $4M per to bring aboard Jesse Crain. Not sure how, not sure what this will mean going forward, all I know is that Crain fits the bill perfectly for what the Sox needed most, and the Sox management team somehow made it happen despite all indications that there was no more money to be spent.

Crain has been one of the many seemingly interchangeable arms that come out of the Twins pen and lock down games, especially against the Sox. He's a 29-year old right-hander who has had bouts of inconsistency due to somewhat iffy control and not over-powering stuff, but yet still has been a crucial part of the Twin's relief staff since he first came up in 2004.

Crain's shown that he's good for a 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and about 50 Ks and 25 walks in 60 IP. Those numbers aren't stellar, but they're pretty good and can work for a #2 or #3 righty out of the pen. Especially because Crain has often been much better than that - it's just that he'll struggle for stretches, as he did when an injury in 2007 robbed him of a bit of his effectiveness for a few seasons.

Now the thing with relievers is you never know what you're going to get. Linebrink showed that - after being one of baseball most dominant set-up men for a number of years, he struggled to be effective after the first few months of each season on the Southside, putting up disastrous 2nd halves every year he was here.

However, Linebrink made his mark in the NL and throwing out of PetCo in San Diego, the league's most pitcher-friendly park. On the other hand, while the MetroDome is less hitter-friendly than the Cell, Crain's been equally effective on the road over his career and, much more importantly, has proven he can get it done in the AL Central.

Still, there's a little bit of caution here in that before last year, Crain hadn't had a WHIP below 1.27 since his first full year in the bigs in 2005. For a guy who's not a high strike-out arm (far less than a K/IP over his career), that's a lot of hitters for a reliever to be putting on base. And before last year, he hadn't been all that effective since the 2007 injury, with an ERA in the high 3s or worse.

But having raised the requisite red flags, I'm still high on this signing for two reasons. First, as I keep saying, the Sox most definitely needed another proven veteran arm to have any chance of success in 2011. They still aren't perfect out there (I'd like to see one more arm with some late-inning upside and Pena brought back into the mix), but at least they're close enough that you can hope the rest can be cobbled together off the scrap heap or out of the system.

Because make no mistake, Crain's got as much ability to be a strong 7th/8th inning guy as anyone out there. Before his injury in 2006, he'd been pretty lights out to start his career. And beginning about midway through 2009, Crain started to look like that pitcher once again. He finished that season almost untouchable in the second half, struggled a bit to start 2010, and then returned to being one of Gardenhire's most reliable late-inning options.

Seeing those pair of second half surges, I went and looked at Crain's career splits and was impressed by what I saw - this is a guy who gets stronger as the year goes on. Year in and year out, he consistently seems to stumble here and there in the first half before putting it all together around mid-season.

Over his career, Crain's posted a pretty poor 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the 1st half. So know that Crain might seem a bit of a bust early on. I'm sure the fans will probably get on him about this, but I hope Ozzie is able to show some patience and confidence in this guy, because the Sox need a reliever who can get it done down the stretch.

The way the Sox pen has fallen apart pretty much every year under Ozzie, it's nice to have a guy like Crain who will be there to pick up some of the slack. In second halves over his career, he's posted a sparkling 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. If Crain repeats that kind of down-then-up performance in 2011, I'll be very happy with this move. I think it'll go a long way to giving us the late-season stability in the pen, the lack of which helped tanked good Sox teams in 2006 and 2010.

The second reason I'm high on this signing? Because Kenny is on record, in response to the Quentin rumors, that he would not be weakening one part of his team to improve another. So if he's not looking to deal CQ because of how it'd hurt the lineup (and all the latest reports affirm that Kenny respectfully listened to overtures but made no effort to part with CQ), you've got to figure he also won't be looking to deal Ed Jackson (as some have theorized might be the follow-up move to get the payroll back to levels the Sox have previously proven comfortable with).

And nor should Kenny be considering something like that. Even if Peavy is declared fit to pitch tomorrow, would you really be confident in him getting around 30 starts this year? And as durable as Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle have been, it's rare for a team to avoid injuries to all four of its top starters.

Given that you've built a team capable to win this year, that you can't hope to do so w/o strong starting pitching up and down the rotation, and that you're already taxing your depth with Peavy's uncertainty, the Sox are in no place to consider dealing Ed Jackson (or any of their other starter) unless they're just blown away.


So where does that leave the Sox? Apparently at a payroll approaching $125M (after assumed arbitration salaries are included). Is that sustainable? Since the winning the World Series, the Sox have been around $100-$110M. Now they did spike up to over $120 in 2008, but since then they've lost a bit of the revenue bounce they got from the title, have seen an epic recession, and don't have any salary offsets coming in (such as the $3.5M the Dodgers gave the Sox for Pierre, which they Sox then gave to the Braves to cover Linebrink).

Assuming what Kenny says is true, that they aren't moving key pieces, that leaves really only two salaries the Sox can hope to shed at this point - the above-mentioned Teahen's $4.75M (and another $5.5M next year) and Viciedo's $2.25M (and $3.25M next year). Even that's only $6M in savings this year (over the min level guys you'll still need to fill out your bench) and it's extremely unlikely anyone is gonna agree to take on all that wasted money on Teahen unless you're giving up a pretty good prospect or sending over cash (which defeats the purpose).

But maybe that's what's gonna happen. Maybe Kenny does part with a quality prospect in order to move Teahen off the books, under the thinking that it's no different than trading a quality prospect for a reliever (as Teahen's money could be seen as used for Crain). And maybe Viciedo is shipped out, bringing back that very same quality prospect.

Maybe it means pairing Viciedo with Teahen to some team with a little bit of money who loves Viciedo's upside. Not unreasonable, given how Viciedo raked last year in AAA - .274 AVG and .493 SLG in 343 ABs - and the bigs - .308 AVG, .519 SLG in 104 ABs. This kid might just be a great young power-hitting 3B (or more likely, 1B) who's cheap and has loads of upside. That might be worth taking on some garbage salary in Teahen for some team.

And it would make perfect sense for the Sox, who don't seem to have a place for Viciedo moving forward. Konerko and Dunn have 1B/DH locked up, while moving Dunn to LF isn't an option because of Pierre and whomever takes over the leadoff spot (say Jordan Danks) in 2012. It's questionable whether Viciedo can play fulltime 3B, especially on a team that is built around defense, not to mention how the Sox seem pretty committed to Morel anyway.

The Sox could keep him in AAA - Viciedo will only be 22 on Opening Day - but he's getting a bit expensive for that now and that's still only a temporary solution. Worst case he takes a step back and loses all value - while still costing you money - and best case is that he hits so well that you can't keep him down for much longer.

However, maybe that temporary solution is worth it, as who knows what the future brings. Morel hit like crap in his big league stint last year, and as we've seen with Crede and Fields, there's no guarantee that he'll be a solid player any time soon. An injury to Konerko or Dunn or even Quentin might make a hot-hitting Viciedo a perfect short term stop gap. Or an injury or ineffective play elsewhere might make Viciedo the perfect mid-season trade piece.


I've got to be honest, I have no idea where these Sox are heading from here this off-season. I laid out my thoughts for the hitters in my little position-by-position state of the union and touched on what I thought the Sox should do about the pitching in my summary post after the Dunn, Konerko, and AJ moves.

But at this point, the Sox have gone in such a different direction from what I originally thought and put themselves in such an unexpected position that I can't really say what the next moves Kenny will be making are. Maybe nothing. Maybe he just finds some crap heap types to compete to round out the pen and bench and 6th starter spot and lets Spring Training determine the make-up of the final roster.

If that's the case, if the Sox really are going to keep their payroll where it is now and hold tight with their roster and prospects as is, I think I'm ready to declare this off-season a success. The questions that remain are ones you can hope to "figure out" in Spring Training, such as pen, bench, and rotation depth.

Otherwise, you can look at the team you have now and say it has pretty much everything you need to be a World Series champ. Speed, run production, defense, bench depth, stellar rotation, and a strong pen. Fill in the depth pieces with those random guys Kenny and Ozzie are good at finding and why couldn't we be watching another South Side parade next October?


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The Carlos Question

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Last week, (here) I laid out the expected Sox 25-man roster based on what they've got under contract now.

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm

I ended the post saying that there was one more big thought the above lay-out inspired and today I share it with you:

-Rumors flew around this weekend that Quentin was now available. But then Kenny came out and said that while he knew he needed to upgrade the pen, he would not do so by taking away from his starting lineup. He didn't think that made sense to weaken one area to help another.

I totally disagree. Look at that lineup and you realize that CQ is not necessary at all. Paulie-Dunn-Rios are a plenty good 3-4-5 combo, while after that AJ and Alexei are more than respectable 6-7 options. This team has enough power that it can replace Quentin with a low cost option, maybe even a platoon, of the type of OF vagabonds you find floating around.

I'm not talking about garbage scrap heapers like Andruw Jones (who was respectable last season, if a bit over-exposed). I mean proven big league bats who can play good outfield defense at a few different spots, move a little bit on the bases, and combine just enough average, power, and OBA to warrant semi-regular at-bats in the back of your lineup.

Think about what happens if you move Quentin:

1) You get a bunch of assets back.

This is a guy who's proven he can put up MVP numbers in the bigs. Sure the reality of CQ is what we got in 09-10 (30 HR power, 10 RBI production, low average, solid OBA, and lots of injuries), but the fact that Quentin's 2008 exists jumps his value significantly. There just aren't that many guys who've shown they can do that, even inconsistently.

On top of that, CQ is young and under team control for another two seasons. Most teams can't afford market prices for middle of the order bats, so the chance to slot CQ for maybe $5M and $8M the next few seasons is pretty attractive to most clubs. Especially because he's a class guy who's played both left and right - there aren't a lot of things to give you pause aside those nagging injuries. But they haven't cost CQ a whole season or anything, and you're not tied into a big, longterm contract or anything.

I could definitely see Quentin bringing back a nice young major league ready bullpen arm with good potential and maybe another prospect or two to help re-stock the system a bit. Teams always have young arms and prospects - sure they're valuable as ever now, but aside a stud young starting pitcher, nothing is more valuable than a cheap young middle of the order producer.

So find that promising young pitching prospect who isn't slated to be a starter but looks like (or even has already proven that) he's able to get outs in the 6th or 7th innings. Build a deal around him and whatever other minor league assets you can get. The trade market for a guy like Quentin most definitely exists, as Quentin's name is always coming up in trade rumors, and apparently that's not of the Sox doing. Especially this off-season, when there aren't much for big bats in free agency nor many viable trade options.

2) You upgrade your OF defense and possibly find a better 2-hole option.

By every measure Quentin is a pretty bad OF. He was serviceable in left, using his plus arm and the general mediocrity of this position across baseball to be OK, but in right the numbers suggest he's hurting you a bit out there. It wasn't terribly obvious when watching him, but it also wasn't obvious watching Dye in 2009, but by every metric he was about the worst RF in baseball that season.

So it's easy to discount the value of a good defensive OF or not realize the harm of a poor one, but given the Sox investment in starting pitching, this team needs good defense to be successful. Your starters aren't gonna fill their potential if you don't have guys behind them who can get the job done. And upgrading your RF defense - fairly easy to do from Quentin to some journeyman, given that you can expect to get good D if you aren't demanding a great bat - will make a real difference.

On top of that, it shouldn't be difficult to find one of these plus OF defender types w/o a real high impact bat but with the ability to make contact, put down bunts, work the count, and hit just well enough when facing only righties or lefties to fulfill the role of a #2 hitter. These guys are generally platoon types or 4th OFs, especially in the NL, and very much exist in some abundance.

3) You free up money to spend on your pen.

I gotta figure CQ is gonna jump from $3.2M to $5-6M, maybe more. The guy drove in 87 runs last year, despite missing a bunch of time, and has that tremendous 2008 on his resume. I can't say I'm great at guessing arbitration numbers, but certainly it won't be less than $5M or so, and could be up near $7M or even $8M.

The Sox know about what number they're looking at to keep CQ and have built that into their payroll math. So when they say they're tapped, that includes the $5-$8M they are going to have spend on CQ next year. But if they deal him, suddenly that money is freed up. You figure you can find a decent platoon of solid defensive RFs capable of hitting #2 for about $3-4M total, giving you another $2-4M to go and spend on the pen.

That could mean another top notch arm like Putz last year, or it could be a couple of solid veteran journeymen, like a respectable 6th-7th inning spot righty (think Vizcaino from the 05 team) coupled with a 2nd tier lefty (think Marte from the 05 team).


However the Sox would spend the money, the simple fact is that as the pen stands right now, the Sox are set up for disaster in 2011. I know everyone's all pumped for this lineup, to have AJ and Paulie back while somehow also adding Dunn. On paper the Sox look amazing. But the pen is the easiest area to overlook when analyzing a team and yet by far the most crucial to getting to and advancing in the playoffs.

Think 2006 - that's what I see in this team right now. A ton of offense. A great lineup of SPs. And a couple of pen arms you can rely on mashed together with a whole bunch of question marks.

So what happened in 2006? We got off to an incredible first half, as good as any team in baseball at the All-Star Break, looking like a real perennial power. But then the pen started having issues and suddenly everything else fell apart. The lineup and rotation had too much pressure on them w/ the way the pen was blowing games and ultimately the second half was a disaster, netting the most disappointing 90-win season in Sox history.

What really spooks me about that prediction is that 2006 was far from the only season that the pen melted down in the second half. My brother made the point that there seems to be something to how Ozzie uses his guys that leaves them susceptible to injuries or ineffectiveness shortly after the All-Star Break. It happened last year and also was a concern in 2008, even tho we fought through it to win the division. And while we weren't much for competitive in 07 or 09, the pens were definitely worse late in the year than early on.

Some of the solution lies in Ozzie learning to better use his pen early on. Don't always go 7-8-9. Don't always go to your stud set-up guy in every sign of trouble, nor bring out your closer whenever the game isn't a laugher in the 9th. Protect these guys every chance you can get, work hard to get them strings of days off to really allow for some recovery in-season. And develop the lesser guys so later in the year they're experienced in dealing with some of the tough situations that arise.

But the real foundation to answering the Sox bullpen problems comes from loading up on as many capable arms as possible. As it stands, the Sox have two sure-things in their pen - Thornton and Santos. And I don't mean sure-things in terms of effectiveness - only Mariano Rivera is a sure thing bullpen arm. Everyone else it's year-to-year, outing-to-outing.

I mean sure-thing in that they will be crucial parts of the Sox relief staff in 2011. Otherwise, it's all up in the air. Personally I'd like to see Thornton closing and Sale as the 7th/8th inning lefty option. I think Sale showed himself fully capable of the job last year and I don't see any reason to mess with success.

The argument would be that the Sox have a lot of money tied up in their rotation and no guarantee these guys will be around longterm, so you've got to develop that next generation of starters. But I'm not buying that totally. Sure there's some truth to it and if I could be sure Sale would be an effective starter, I'd say let's do it.

But I'm not at all sure of that - the kid hasn't started ever at the professional level. So far Sale's been purely a reliever in the bigs and minors, and he's done a tremendous job of it. Why fix what ain't broke? Especially because relievers are tremendously valuable - as I said, they're so unpredictable that if you find one - like Thornton - who delivers every night for seasons on end, he can be just as important to your success as a middle rotation starter.

So I'm sticking with Sale in the pen, using Thornton to close, and letting Santos work a 7th/8th role. But I'm also making sure I get another possible 7th/8th back in a Quentin deal, and then using the savings there to bring in another reliable 7th/8th option or a pair of 6th/7th options that might just have 7th/8th upside.

My theory with a pen is that you aren't going to get what you expect, so you need to have a ton of different options to make up for the injuries and ineffectiveness that nearly every team in baseball goes through in its pen over the course of a 162 game season (not to mention playoffs). Think about 2005 - Shingo flames out early, so Hermanson takes over. He gets hurt, so Jenks steps in. But it didn't end there - Hermanson's move out of the set-up role only worked because Politte was able to step into it. And when Marte proved unreliable, the Sox couldn't have sniffed a series title without Cotts there to dominate as a 7th/8th lefty.

Sure, a lot of that was luck - Politte and Cotts didn't have another good season the rest of their careers after being as untouchable as any set-up men I've ever seen. But Politte had closed before and Cotts came with a strong pedigree. While they initially were counted on only as spot guys in middle relief, there were some signs that they might just have what it takes to step up if need be.

That's what Kenny needs to assemble - a pen that not only looks good in it's closer and set-up spots, but also has 2nd and even 3rd options for every role to deal with whatever troubles come the Sox way. It ain't easy to do it, but if the Sox don't get creative and figure it out, then


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Dunn, AJ, Paulie... and then?

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After making one of the first big splashes of the off-season with the Dunn signing, Kenny wasted no time bringing AJ back into the fold and after a bit of back-and-forth and showing some impressive creativity on the Sox side and flexibility on Konerko's side, the team was able to keep the Captain around for another three seasons as well.

Where does this leave the Sox for the rest of the off-season? Apparently, tapped out financially, which seems to make sense after giving Dunn $13M.

The savings you got from dumping Linebrink ($2M), Jenks ($7.5M), Kotsay ($1.5M), and Freddy ($1M), the drop in Pierre's salary ($1.5M), and the creative structuring of AJ's contract (only $2M in 2011, after $6.25 in 2010) is mostly eaten up by contractual raises to Peavy ($1M), Rios ($2.3M), Alexei ($1.5M), Teahen ($1M - to $4.75M... yes, we're paying this bum almost $5M!), Floyd ($2.25M), and Thornton ($1M), plus the impending Arbitration raises that Danks, Quentin, and possibly even Pena (more on him later) will get.

Looking at those numbers, it's impressive they even found $13M for Dunn, so I believe Kenny when he says that as things stand today, they've got no more room to make any significant adds.

So how does that leave our Sox looking, assuming that they don't make any more moves?

Lineup:
1 - Pierre (LF)
2 - Beckham (2B)
3 - Konerko (1B)
4 - Dunn (DH)
5 - Rios (CF)
6 - Quentin (RF)
7 - AJ (C)
8 - Alexei (SS)
9 - Morel (3B)

Bench:
C - Castro
1B/LF/RF - Teahen
2B/3B/SS - Vizquel
CF - ???

Rotation:
1 - Peavy
2 - Buehrle
3 - Floyd
4 - Danks
5 - EJackson

Bullpen:
CL - Thornton
LSU - Sale
RSU - Santos
LMR - ???
RMR - ???
MR - ???

*Plus a bench hitter or extra bullpen arm


My thoughts:

-Personally not a fan of Becks in the #2 slot, especially behind Pierre, as I think he's far better off further down where he can just hit, instead of needing to wait for Pierre to steal, then need to hit behind the runner, execute hit-and-runs, and so on. This kid struggled once already - let's put Beckham in a spot to succeed, really prove himself just as a hitter, before asking him to fill a challenging and vital role.

Let's not repeat the hard-learned lessons of last season's horrendous start, please. Especially after seeing a good, but not unbeatable Texas team get through the AL, I absolutely believe that with the starting arms the Sox had and their solid lineup, we could have made some real noise in the post-season. Reminded me a lot of 2003, when another well-built Sox club missed the playoffs thanks to a terrible start that gave them no room for error down the stretch.

Now I get why Ozzie is thinking Beckham is his #2 - he doesn't have any other clear options (unlike last year, when Kotsay was so obviously the right answer). But, at least to start off, I'd use AJ here instead. Then if Beckham comes out swinging the bat great, I might move him up to #2. But take the pressure off early.

Sure, AJ is far from ideal, as it puts two lefties back-to-back and takes away any southpaws from the back of your order. And of course, AJ isn't exactly the dictionary definition of a #2 hitter. But they won with him at #2 in 2008 and I just think about how AJ approaches at-bats, loves to bunt or hit behind runners, runs smart on the bases, and is well-versed in the Twins school of fundamental baseball.

To me, that makes him the best option the Sox currently have in their starting lineup to fill the #2 hitter responsibilities that hitting behind Pierre and in front of Konerko and Dunn demands. And a good manager thinks outside the box a bit and makes these kind of calls.

Though what I think I'd really do is start Vizquel at 3B and let him be my #2 hitter. He showed last season he's got everything it takes - respectable average, good at-bats, great bunter, decent speed and good base-running. But it sounds like the Sox really want to keep Vizquel as a Util guy - I can see that, given his age and need for that bench 2B/SS. But unless Morel or Viciedo really shows they can get the job done, I wouldn't hesitate starting the year with Omar at 3B and in the #2 slot.

In fact, my approach would be to let Vizquel show you that he's too old to get it done before you write him off. I hate when teams go into the off-season and decide that because on paper it's time to move from a proven vet to a promising youngster, that they're just gonna go ahead and do it.

I'd far prefer to see Morel to come into camp with something to prove. Tell him the job's Vizquel's and he's got to show he deserves it more. And let Vizquel know that as long as he does what he's done, the position is his to lose. That's how it should be, but so many GMs and Managers are too proactive, forcing things they want to be the case before they actually are.

What I really like about this plan is that it gives you a lot of room for error. If Vizquel struggles early, at least he'll still be doing the little things to help as a #2 hitter and plus defensive 3B. With Beckham in the #2 slot and Morel as an everyday 3B, if either doesn't do well, they're gonna start screwing up their confidence and also not contribute a whole lot to the team.

Instead, put them both in a position to succeed early - Beckham down in the order and Morel in Spring Training and a Minor League stint without any expectations, but instead a challenge to prove himself. Once both of those guys are up and grooving, then you can slot Beckham into the #2 hole and Morel onto the big league club as your 3B.


-There are some talks of batting Dunn #3 behind Beckham, but that would mean once Dunn bats, pitchers are facing righties the rest of the way thru the heart of the order, with AJ the only respite until JP comes around at #1 again. Konerko might not be ideal as a #3 hitter - I don't see him repeating his .300 average again this year - but he's a real presence in the lineup, especially with the likes of Dunn protecting him. With Dunn's lefty bat in the clean-up slot, you're now going R-L-R through 3-4-5, and that challenges pitchers and managers.

Now I'm not one to overplay the importance of righty-lefty (as the Sox did last year, with Kotsay at the #5 slot, or by using the RBI-light AJ there in the past), but if you have the option to utilize R-L to your advantage, then you should do so.


-I love Rios at #5 - after a pair of cloggers like Konerko and Dunn, it's great that you'll start to get into some athleticism. Quentin actually doesn't move bad at #6 and Alexei can really fly at #8. You start mixing speed throughout your lineup and not only do you make yourself more dangerous to other teams, but it will keep Ozzie from falling asleep at the wheel while he waits for 3-run homers.

Aside Konerko and Dunn, you've got a lineup that can steal and do hit-and-runs top to bottom, and that kind of approach to the game keeps your offense more steady and consistent. And as I've harped on in the past - you've got to build a lineup that inspires Ozzie to manage, else he'll happily not do so and blame it on his personnel.


-I'm very curious to see who will be the bench CF option and also whether the Sox will carry 7 relievers or 5 bench hitters. It's a small thing, but still important, especially the way Ozzie uses his bench much like an NL coach. A lot will go into this and we probably won't know until Opening Day, but it'll be interesting to see it shake out.

Will Viciedo forces his way onto the roster if he isn't the everyday 3B? It could happen if he rakes in Spring Training but Morel if looks solid too, he'll get the nod for his defense. So what then - how are you gonna get Viciedo at-bats w/ Dunn and Paulie around and Morel also a righty?

What about the OF? Right now Teahen is the only bench guy who can play OF and he's not a CF. So they're gonna have to add someone and with CQ out there, possibly Dunn on occasion, you're gonna need a CF-capable guy who's fairly strong defensively for the late innings. Ozzie has shown he can get a lot out of the guys Kenny finds for him, so I'm curious who this will be.


-The Sox are saying they're going to be very cautious with Peavy, which they should be, given that he's owed $16M this year, $17M next year, and the club holds what is essentially an $18M option the following year ($22M w/ a $4M buy-out). Throw in the fact that this is an injury you generally see in QBs but not pitchers, and a slow, cautious approach makes perfect sense.

The problem is that it's not easy to gameplan around missing your #1 starter for anywhere between 1 and 3 months. I loved the Freddy Garcia pick up last year and it proved to be genius - they would have been also-rans all season if it wasn't for his 9-3 record before the All-Star Break.

But not only can you not bring back Freddy, you'll have a hard time finding someone similar to sign on for a non-guaranteed role on the team after a month or so. Proven guys like Freddy won't come cheap enough nor will be happy with an uncertain role. And unproven guys - like Freddy was last year coming off his injuries - won't want to come somewhere they aren't guaranteed a chance to re-establish their value.

So the Sox are going to have to get creative, either by finding a viable arm out of their group of prospects or matching up with a trash heap guy who's so desperate for a chance that he'll accept this uncertain role. On thing I hope they don't do, which is something there is a lot of talk of them doing, is use Sale in the spot. I'll talk more on this later, but in brief I'd rather not sacrifice a seemingly sure asset in a great area of need to be a 5th starter maybe just for a month.

One thing I'd like to see the Sox look into - Tony Pena. He's arbitration eligible, so it's possible they non-tender him and he moves on, much like what happened with DJ Carrasco last year (who, by the way, had another productive season out of the pen - not sure why the Sox dumped an effective reliever who could fill any role when such reliable guys are so hard to come by, especially when he signed for peanuts).

Pena only made $1.2M last year, hasn't had impressive numbers, and is in only his 2nd arbitration year - how expensive could he be? And if arbitration would bring Pena a salary that doesn't fit the market (as it often does), isn't it possible to non-tender the guy but still bring him back for a price that's good for both sides? Especially if you're offering him a chance to be a starting pitcher (which ups his earning power), something no one else is going to do?

I really think Pena has a shot to be an ideal short-term #5 starter. He showed himself shockingly good when given multiple innings of work - in the 13 appearances where he racked up 3+ IP this past year, Pena was quality in 9 or 10 of them.

Pena also got what equated to 4 starts this past season, counting when he took over for Floyd after 7 pitches (and no outs). Pena had a respectable 4 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB over 7 IP, then finished the year with a 6 inning, 0 ER game and a 6 IP, 3 ER outing before struggling in his final start to the tune of 6 ER in 6 IP.

It's only four games, but if he could keep that up - 1 great, 2 OK, and 1 bad start in every four - Pena would be a perfect #5 starter, especially for only part of the season. And I have faith he could - for whatever reason last year, when Pena was tasked with throwing a lot of innings, he rose to the challenge. Aside the respectable four starts, he also had two other 4+ inning outings where he allowed either no runs or 1 run.

Another thing I like about using Pena in this role is that he also is able to seamlessly move back into the bullpen to fill that spot and long relief role like he did in the past. So you're not getting a guy just to sub for Peavy, but also to shore up the pen. Especially because in 2007 and the first half of 2008, Pena was a plus set-up man. That means he's one more guy who might randomly turn into a late-inning bullpen option next year. As I'll get into more later, most successful bullpens feature at least a guy or two who came out of nowhere to play a key late-inning role. Pena gives you one more reasonable option for one of those break-outs.


I've still got one more thought inspired by this look at the Sox current roster, but it's a bit of a long and multi-dimensional one, and this post is already pretty full of stuff to chew on, so I'll save it for next week (here).


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Your Latest Sox Slugger - Adam Dunn

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Throughout their history, the Sox weren't much of a power-hitting team at all. Some of it was their cavernous park, some of it was a pitching & defense strategy, and some of it was simply long strings of management that didn't develop or try to attain big hitters.

Until Big Frank came along, the best the Sox had for big boppers were a few (but not too many) respectable years out of the likes of Dick Allen and Beltin Bill Melton in the 70s. It was so bad that Melton's 154 homers (over seven seasons) was the team career leader when I was born in 1979. They also had never had a 40-HR hitter until the 90s.

But Frank and a more cozy New Comiskey Park ushered in a new era (helped along by the proliferation of power in the game leaguewide, driven by the shameful steroid era). Frank, Albert Belle, Paulie, Dye, Thome, and recently Quentin have all threatened to lead the league in homers while providing a seamless stretch of middle-of-the-order producers as good as any in baseball.

While the Sox have had their up and downs since the 90s began, the one constant has been at least one, if not two or even three guys in the heart of the lineup fully capable of 40 HRs and 110 RBI.

But heading into 2011, as I detailed in my breakdown of all the position players, the Sox were in a place to not be guaranteed even a single legit, respected middle of the order bat. Thome and Dye were sent packing last year (and really, at this stage of their career are no longer 40-110 threats), Paulie is a coveted free agent, and Quentin is neither untouchable nor guaranteed to be healthy or productive enough to warrant inclusion in that potential 40-110 group.


Enter Adam Dunn. Few players in all of baseball have mashed as productively or steadily as this guy. He's just a pure numbers machine, so that's how I'm gonna break him down:

• 1 - Times over the last 7 seasons he's failed to drive in 100 runs. Just once (when he drove in 92 in 2006). This includes back-to-back 100 RBI years for Washington, in a pitcher's park and on a soft offense. Barring an injury, this guy will be the heart of the order contributor every team needs.
  

• 2 - The number of years since becoming a big league regular that he's failed to play in 158 games. And in one of those exceptions he played 152. Yep, pretty much every single year you can expect Dunn to go out and play nearly every single day. There's an incredible value to that kind of durability.
  

• 3 - Positions Dunn can play aside DH. Word was that Dunn wanted to stay in the NL so he could play in the field, so my guess is that part of the Sox' successful sales pitch is that Dunn was told he'd play some defense. I hope that happens - while he's a subpar defender by every measure, I still buy into the value of getting some guys regular days off in the DH slot w/o losing their bat in the lineup. That Dunn could go out to 1B, left, or even right for 6-7 innings until you bring in your defensive replacement allows the Sox greater use of their DH. Having Dunn semi-regularly involved in the field should be an asset.
  

• 4 - Years on his deal, at just $14M. For a guy who's this hotly desired (he was on everyone's radar last trade deadline and rumored to be going to a ton of teams this off-season), having to only commit to him for 4 years and at the very reasonable amount of $14M per is outstanding. Dunn will be 31 next season and 34 when his deal expires. That's certainly likely to be the tail end of his prime, but his prime nonetheless. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he hits 40 and drives in 110 from start to finish on this contract. And $14M is the basement you can expect to sign a proven slugger in his prime, for sure (that was the number bandied around for the older and far less consistent Paulie).
  

• 5 - Times Dunn has batted below .250. Dunn's game has its holes - one of those is hitting for average. His best season-ending average was .267, so it's not like there's a lot of hope for a fluke good year or two in this regard. The closest thing you can get to an encouraging stat is that he's hit .260 or better in three of the last four seasons. He did have a year down at .215 way back in 2003, but likely pencil him in for .235 to .265 and don't stress over it.
  

• 6 - Years that Dunn's OBA has been over .380. One reason you don't stress over the low average is because he makes up for a lot of those outs by drawing a boatload of walks. Dunn's such a threat that pitchers will gladly work around him. That's huge for the Sox, who will have the type of guys who can drive in runners in their 5th, 6th, and 7th slots thanks to a team with RBI potential at nearly every position.
  

• 7 - The number of seasons he's belted 38+ HRs. Mind you one of the three times he failed to do so was his rookie year, when he had 19 HRs in only 66 games. And another was his third year, when he only played in 116 games and still hit 27. Since then seven straight years of 38+, including each of the last two seasons in Washington's big park. The Cell should treat him very well.
  

• 8 - Times that Dunn has averaged over 1K/G. As mediocre as his average is, Dunn's biggest weakness by far is the huge amount of Ks he racks up. He's a hard-swinger who pitchers can and will beat. But the one reason I'm not too worried about this fact is because of the previously mentioned RBI totals. Ks are no different than any other out when no one's on base or there's two down. But they kill you when you need contact to bring a guy in, especially when your best run producer is up. That Dunn so consistently drives in so many runs, especially these past two seasons in Washington, tells me his Ks aren't having a hugely negative effect on his role as a run-producer.
  

• 9 - I got nothing of great relevance for this number, so I'll use this space to point out that Dunn is a very streaky player. He'll carry the Sox for weeks on end and then be a giant hole in the lineup for the next few weeks. The Sox have a pretty deep and dynamic lineup that should be able to pick up the slack when Dunn does disappear. But I hope Kenny is still working to provide another legit middle of the order bat of some sort. Because if Quentin gets hurt (like he always does) at the same time Dunn goes into the tank, the Sox are gonna be hurting in the heart of the lineup. Give me one more professional bat to throw in there and I think the Sox can overcome those stretches. If not, I fear a team much like last year - very up and down.
  

• 10 - Times he's missed the postseason in 10 seasons. This would be disheartening if he hadn't been buried in small market Cincinnati and slowly rebuilding Washington for most of his career. It's not like he's been a part of a bunch of high expectation disappointments, near misses, or late-season meltdowns. Dunn has just been on teams that were bad from start to finish and nothing he could do was gonna change that. Only one time has he finished on a team who wasn't under .500, and that was only after a late-season trade to the Dbacks three years ago. The pessimist would point out he's never had to deliver under pressure or down the stretch. Me, the eternal optimist, says that Dunn is a guy might be inspired to new heights now that he's surrounded by real talent and part of an organization that's tasted the sweet nectar of a title very recently.
  

So as you can tell, I'm pretty high on this signing. And I haven't even mentioned that Dunn's a lefty. You slot him in at #4 and now you're not as concerned if you have to fill #3, #5, and #6 with righties. And for the Sox, with Rios, Quentin, Beckham, Alexei, Viciedo, and Morel all swinging from the right, that's a pretty comforting piece of knowledge.

I just see so little downside here. Dunn may be up and down throughout the season, but at the end of the year he's gonna have the same numbers as always. He's got not injury history at all and with a contract that takes him only through the age of 34, I don't see a lot of room for decline. On top of all that, for a slugger of Dunn's caliber, $14M is really the bare minimum I would have expected the Sox to have to pay. Especially given that his acquisition didn't require the loss of any significant assets (tho they will have to forfeit their 1st round pick, which may be replace if Paulie leaves anyway).

I'm pretty pumped... this was an outstanding way to start the Hot Stove for the Sox. They still need to find someone to play 1B who won't embarrass himself hitting #3-6. And they need to fill their hole at catcher (I'm not loving this discussion of Olivo - he's produced OK, but isn't it telling that no team has bothered to keep him around for more than a year or two? Your catcher is in command of so much out there, do you really want a guy that a bunch of teams, including mediocre ones, haven't thought was worth investing in?).

I haven't even touched on their pitching, with question marks out of Peavy and his effect on the whole rest of the rotation, what to do with Chris Sale (I say leave him in the pen unless you're sure he's gonna be a frontline starter fairly soon), and how to retool the pen in light of last season's late year collapse.

But so far, so good. Dunn is a worthy heir to the recent line of Sox sluggers Big Frank, Belle (whom I hated, but he did produce numbers, even if they were after we were out of it every year), Paulie, Dye, and Thome. He's gonna slot into this lineup and produce like always and we're gonna be damn happy Southsiders because of it.

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part IV (RF & DH)

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Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). Yesterday, LF and CF (here). I'll finish up with SPs and finally RPs.

Today - RF and DH.


RF - Quentin

This guy is a hell of a conundrum. Is he the uberprospect the Dbacks faithful were waiting on forever? Or the never-will-be the Dbacks front office unloaded for a decent but unexciting prospect? Is he the MVP-caliber monster that tore up the AL before getting injured late in 2008? Or is he a throw-back 80s type slugger, incapable of hitting for average, but a guy who will smack bombs, get on base, and ultimately drive in a really good number of runs.

Honestly, I think I've got a pretty good lock on who this kid is. It's actually as clear as his per 162 game averages - Quentin will hit you about .240-.250, mash at about a 25-35 HR pace, score around 85 R and drive in 100+, given a full season.

He'll get hot for stretches and carry you, but then he'll go stone cold and be a massive hole in the lineup. And most importantly, Quentin is going to get hurt - both nagging injuries and major ones - and miss a decent chunk of games every year. In all CQ will probably consistently hit 20 and drive in 80 while missing a month every year. On top of all that, he'll be very mediocre in the OF (tho with a solid arm) but not clog the bases like most slugging types.

So, is Quentin worth keeping around if that's what you're gonna get? You know, it depends on two things. First, what is he going to cost you? He's in his arbitration years and making $3.2M already. As much as he was a disappointment to fans last year, the 26 HR and 87 RBI will earn him another solid raise. How much of one (and whether you can get him to sign something a little more longterm) dictates whether CQ is worth the obvious negatives that I've come to accept.

The second factor is what kind of market is there out there for Q? Even after last season's disappointment, he had a ton of trade value. How about now, when Quentin bounced back with a year that still had injuries, was far from MVP form, but showed that he's absolutely got heart-of-the-order RBI producing skills? 26 HR and 87 RBI aren't too shabby, but for a guy who missed about 35 games - they're actually pretty impressive.

And while Quentin's salaries will go up for each of the next two seasons under arbitration, he'll remain under his team's control for that time. That's extremely valuable to all the cost-conscious, risk adverse teams out there (which is pretty much all of them). Especially because heart of the order sluggers are about as expensive as any commodity you'll find.

In all, I can't rightfully say what I'd do with Carlos. I do know that the Sox are in a better spot than most teams in that they can put Carlos at DH for stretches to both keep him healthy and offset some of his defensive deficiencies, but can also hold open an OF spot, as it's doubtful this early in his career that he's mentally ready to be a fulltime DH.

While the Sox management took a beating from a lot of places for their use of the DH slot as a flex spot last year, in principle I agree with the strategy - I just thought it was horribly executed (more on that later). Given that I'd also like to see an aging Konerko brought back, I think the Sox would be wise to again look at their DH slot as a place to buy day's off for some of their producers w/o taking their bat out of the lineup.

Hell, it goes beyond Konerko and Quentin - I'd get my athletes like JP, Beckham, and Alexei days in the DH slot as well. Those guys are plus hitters who you don't want to lose from your lineup at any time. But they can use mental and physical breaks throughout the year - so why not give them that with a game here or there as the DH? Just come to the ballpark with zero expectation besides swingin the bat four times. Get refreshed and be ready to play another 6 games in a row.

So if the Sox are going to keep using their DH as such, I can actually get behind another year of Quentin, as long as they can't score some extremely useful piece for him on the trade market. That's the big wild card - if some team really likes the idea of a cost-effective run producer with MVP-caliber upside under control for two years, then I'd be willing to sell now on Quentin.

One angle based on absolutely nothing - Quentin for Ichiro. Probably will take a bunch more than that, but if you're talking Quentin and the Mariners are at all considering dealing Ichiro, then there's the start of a deal to be made.

From the Mariners perspective, their offense last year was horrifically bad. And as good as Ichiro is, he's totally wasted in a lineup that has literally no one behind him who can drive him in. Throw in that he's aging (even if extremely well) and seems to be the type of ego who won't suffer a losing club for long, can't you see the M's being willing to shake things up?

So why not do so by solving one of the two giant holes in your lineup (well, probably three holes - I really think Seattle doesn't have single player on their roster who could legitimately be considered a #3, #4, or #5 hitter) with a guy like Quentin, who might just revert to MVP form, and at the least will drive in runs at a 100+ RBI pace, all while being only 29 next opening day and with two years of salary control?

Especially because you've got a perfect leadoff hitter replacement for Ichiro in Figgins, someone without much trade value after a very middling season last year and a hefty contract. Throw in the salary savings, the other prospects the Sox would send you, and you're telling me the Mariners GM isn't liking his team better after a deal like that?

As for the Sox, don't get me started on how beautiful it would be to have Ichiro hitting #1 or #2 for this team. JP is the consummate team player, so you leave it up to the mildly diva-like Ichiro to tell you if he'd prefer to hit #1 or #2, slot Pierre into the other, and then just sit back and watch as AL pitchers go nuts trying to contain these two.

But it wouldn't stop there - you've got Rios, Alexei, and Beckham all who can run a bit themselves. And more than just stealing bases and getting into pitchers' heads, the Sox lineup would be filled with guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. I've gone on about this kind of thing before - to win you need consistency. And what the statheads have failed to tackle so far, what is the weak foundation that has lead to so many of the stat crunchers theories and proclamations failing is that to win in baseball you have to be able to produce at a relatively consistent level every day.

A lineup with those five guys is well on the way to doing that. Sure, you'd still need a legit producer to lock up the #4 slot (I'm seeing Paulie still there) and then a lefty bat that has to be respected to hit #5 or #6 (seeing that out of the DH slot), but that's doable.

But that's all pipe dreams - for now, there's been no word that Ichiro is available nor that Carlos would be what they'd want. And while there might be a great deal for Carlos out there, the way Kenny operates it's something that you're not gonna see coming. So for that reason I'll leave a Carlos trade as the one wild card that could take this off-season into a different direction than I guessed, but still leave me very satisfied.

For this post, I'll simply say that I'd probably bring Quentin back and hope that he's finally healthy, finally of the right mindset, and appreciate that even if he's not, he's still gonna give me pop and RBI production that is very difficult to find and do it w/o a major financial commitment, be it in dollars or years.


DH - Blah

As I've said a bunch of times, I'm definitely in support of how the Sox would like to use their DH slot. The problem was that like Ozzie's supposed commitment to small ball and Lovie's commitment to the run, the Sox DH plan turned out to be very different in execution than in design.

The point of dumping Thome was the Sox wanted to open up the spot to rest their regulars more. And on some level it worked, as Konerko and Quentin each got 23 DH games while JP, Rios, and Beckham added another 13 days off. The problem was that adds up to fewer than 60 games - barely more than a third of the season. The rest of the time the spot was filled with under-producing bums who had no right getting DH at-bats.

In fact, eventually the Sox just gave up on the idea all together, taking on a big chunk of salary for Manny to fill the spot pretty much every day.

But I hope that was a desperation move forced upon them by the mishandling of the approach, not an admittance by Ozzie that his basic strategy was wrong or a decision by Kenny to revert back to the DH as a one-dimensional slugger spot, as seems to be the GM's inclination.

Because I think with the right personnel, utilizing the DH to rest regulars and rotate a number of more dynamic bats into good match-ups is definitely the best way to get the most out of the slot. I've long argued that more teams should use platoons, based on how many guys you see end up with great final numbers on a season where they only played in a portion of the games. Often times you find out these are guys whose effectiveness is limited to righties or lefties, and that they're on teams who capitalize on it.

So me, I'm out looking for some good platoon bench options who can hold their own in the field to use to rotate through the Sox DH slot. I sure as heck am not gonna take a guy who should be a great pinch-hitter/late-inning defensive replacement or, at most, an everyday #2 or #9 hitter, and ask him to suddenly turn into a #5 hitter like they did with Kotsay.

Kotsay should have been a fan favorite on the South Side - in fact he should be a bit over-rated. He's a dirt-wearing, do-what-it-takes grinder who comes up big when it matters (as his great pinch-hitter numbers show) and can help you win in a number of ways. As a bench lefty, late-inning 1B or corner OF, and occasional pinch runner, this guy could have brought a lot of value to a team coached by someone like Ozzie. And the Southside faithful would have loved him, like they over-valued Rowand.

Instead Kotsay was asked to be something he's never even pretended to hint at in his 10+ big league years and, as you 100% could have banked on, failed miserably and took the Sox down with him in the first few months.

The other thing I wouldn't do is pick up a guy who's already failed as a scrap heap reclamation project and already failed as a part-time DH/OF type in the most offensively-friendly park in the league like they did with Andruw Jones.

In fact, Jones ended up being about as good as you could have hoped - his average was bad and he struck out too much, but he offset by playing solid D, running well, hitting with good power, walking a bunch, and being an overall perfect 4th OF. Unfortunately, like with Kotsay, the Sox asked Jones to be more than that as a semi-regular DH and again, we're left thinking he was a bust when in reality he was just put in a position that asked too much of him.

So what now? In my discussion of Teahen at 3B I mentioned Bobby Abreu. Again, who knows if he's available or the Sox want him, but that's the type of player I'd be looking for - a legit left-handed bat who's capable of hitting in the middle of the order. And I don't mean is perfect for the middle of the order - Abreu no longer has much power - but that is s the type of professional hitter who pitchers respect and can do enough with the bat to drive in runs with consistency.

I'm fine with a guy who doesn't have the bigtime power, as long as he's a good average hitter who makes contact and drives the ball enough to bring in some runs. I'm also fine with a guy who can't hit for much average as long as he's not striking out all the time, gets on base at a good clip, and again, has enough of a resume and big swing left that opposing pitchers have to respect him.

Again, I'm also looking for good platoon guys. Find me that lefty who murders righties and can play a couple of positions respectably. Find me that righty who doesn't have much power but consistently hits over .300 against lefties while being able to hold his own in the field somewhere.

These guys exist - they float around the league on the periphery, getting one-year gigs with different teams every year, flashing good things for a bit and then coming back to Earth. But every once in a while one breaks out. His final numbers look great and you wonder where it came from. Often it's as simple as he was put in a place to succeed - he went to a team with a solid lineup and was simply asked to go out and feast on lefties or righties, nothing more.

The big thing for the Sox is going to be finding a lefty who can handle that. The Sox have plenty of righties, both in the rest of their lineup (Rios, maybe Konerko, Beckham, Alexei) and as DH candidates (Quentin, Viciedo). And it's not easy to find these kind of lefty bats, as they're in high demand given how most pitchers are righties.

But they're out there. And the Sox could creative and trade for one - never, ever sleep on Kenny in the trade market. Or get generous and sign somebody - if they let Paulie walk, that opens up a lot of money, and even if they don't there are free agents who get overlooked ever year (like Abreu and Dunn two years ago or Damon last season). Or maybe they just lick their wounds and learn from their mistakes last year, going back to the trash heap but this time being a bit more demanding of what they come away with it from. Maybe even bring in a couple of different options and see who steps up to earn the most at-bats.

I'll throw one last option out there - if the Sox do let Paulie go and/or trade Quentin, replacing them with more athletic and durable alternatives, then I wouldn't be opposed to using the DH in the old school fashion of a pure slugger. Without those guys around, you don't have as much of a need to sit your regulars. Also, without those guys, you're much less in danger of turning back into a beer league softball team just because of a single one-dimensional slugger in the DH slot.

DH is another one of those positions that will be very interesting to watch this off-season. The Sox really could go in any direction, from a traditional lumbering slugger to a handful of miscast role players. I just hope that the Sox see it as an opportunity to improve their club, being aggressive to find some great options, instead of a hole that just needs to be filled, falling back on whatever garbage they can easily get ahold of.



Next up: SPs

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part III (LF & CF)

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Last week I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here) . Then it was the 2B, 3B, and SS positions (here). I'll finish up the hitters with RF and DH tomorrow (here), then follow up with SPs and finally RPs.

Today - LF and CF.


LF Pierre

Few players are the subject of a greater difference of opinion between old schooler baseball game watchers and new school baseball numbers crunchers. While I certainly dig the value of all the new stats that are out there now, including the way it's forced "conventional baseball wisdom" to be challenged (still not nearly enough, I would say), I feel that stats can never tell you the whole story about a player's effect on the game in a day-in and day-out way.

Numbers can certainly tell you part of the story, some parts that you couldn't see w/o numbers. But just citing a bunch of stats to discount (or justify) a player's worth is asinine if you aren't also factoring in the massive amount of baseball value a player can have that won't be reflected in the numbers.

JP is the perfect example - the stat heads will sweat to you that he's a terrible lead-off hitter because he's not a great OBA guy. First off, these very stat heads are ignoring their own numbers - JP has a career OBA of .347 and has only once dipped below .330 in any single season. Those are respectable numbers for a guy w/o any power stroke (i.e. someone that pitchers don't feel the need to pitch around) and w/ amazing speed (i.e. someone pitchers are going to work hard from allowing to get to first).

JP is not some undisciplined free swinging speedster who "can't steal" first base. Taking away your non-top of the order guys (i.e. those too guy not to hit #3-5) and JP's OBA is right around average, if not better.

But even given that, stat heads still love to look at their computer simulations, ignore the reality of baseball, and claim a team would be better off with some lumbering high OBA doof at the top of the order rather than Pierre.

This ignores a number of things - first off, it's not easy to find guys with high OBAs to hit leadoff. Go through the league leaders and you'll find mostly guys hitting #3-5, not top of the order bats. When you finally do get down to some #1 and #2 hitters, you're talking franchise cornerstones who you could never acquire or fluke seasons you wouldn't want to bank on repeating.

In fact, check out the list of 450+ AB guys w/ an OBA above Pierre's .341 this year who could be reasonably considered #1 or #2 hitters - they all fall into those two above categories. It's possible I missed a guy or two, but for the most part, these are you 2010 top of the order guys who had a superior OBA to Pierre:

Gardner, McCutcheon, Ichiro, Crawford, Prado, Castro, AJackson, Torres, and Andrus - all guys that would cost a boatload to trade for, if the team would even listen. And as Crawford will prove this year - if they did reach free agency, they'd cost you a fortune.

The rest - KJohnson, Weeks, Infante, Damon, Abreu, Keppinger, and Pods - are either old, had a fluke year, or absurdly inconsistent... or maybe two or all three of those things.

The point? The next time someone tells you that Pierre is a terrible lead-off hitter, ask them to show you a superior one. If they point to someone in that first group, ask them how exactly the White Sox were supposed to get that guy. I mean I love Tim Lincecum, but his existence isn't proof that Mark Buehrle shouldn't be in our rotation.

So that about takes care of the nonsense about JP's OBA - what about appreciating the value he brings? How about a league best 68 steals? Or his 96 runs? Or my favorite - the 179 hits, 45 walks, and league leading 21 HBPs which add up to a whopping 245 times that JP got on base this season, just rearing to be driven in?

As I said before the season in my ode to JP (here) - the guy plays everyday, is wicked consistent, finds a way to get on base, wreaks havoc on pitchers, and will score runs.

This season JP did all of that. He appeared in 160 games, scored 14+ runs and stole 10+ bases in every month but one, had those 245 times on base, those 68 steals, and those 96 runs.

So what didn't Pierre do? He's not a great left-fielder, but he also doesn't hurt you like a lot of guys out there, even if he has no arm to speak of. JP clearly didn't hit for power, but that's not his role nor expectation. Really the only legit gripe you could have with him is that he struggled mightily throughout April, being a major reason the Sox were so slow out of the gate.

One of the reasons I'm such a big Pierre fan is because I think leadoff hitter is the single most under-valued role in all of baseball (followed closely by non-closers in the pen, tho that's changing, as I'll shortly discuss). But I can't praise the importance of a good lead-off hitter without also pointing out that a bad lead-off hitter can be hugely detrimental.

While Pierre did right the ship and end up with the same numbers he always gets, there's no question his slow start added to the long, painful stretch that lasted from Opening Day until June 9th. JP's colossal struggles in April (.193 average) put undue pressure on every other facet of the ballclub and the dismal results are telling.

So yeah, Pierre let us down a bit to start the year, but at the end of the day, he was crucial to our rebirth and ultimately ended up with enough regular contributions that this club should definitely have been able to make it to the post-season. And I expect him to do that very same thing again next year - at the end of 2011, JP will have the same .285 AVG, .340 OBA, 95 R, and 60 SB he always does.

And that kind of production is outstanding for a leadoff hitter. Especially those SBs - I've preached about this a ton before, but it bears repeating in any discussion of JP's value both looking back and down the road. A guy who can get on base and move around like Pierre can effects things a lot more than the simple numbers will show.

There's no question the guys after him see better pitches as pitchers are distracted and limited in what they can throw. There's no question JP's ability to turn an infield single, walk, or HBP into a double or even triple allows the offense to create runs even when it's not making good contact.

But most important, with Ozzie, the presence of a guy like JP in the lineup helps turns the focus from waiting for a 3-run homer to working to scratch across one run. And when you focus on doing everything you can for one run at each juncture, that's when you get a steady stream of runs that allows you a shot to win every single day. And that's a far better recipe for full-season success than the softball beer league approach of walks and big bombs, which will give you 12 runs one day and then 1 or 2 the next.

Stat heads would say go with the big homer approach - it'll net you 15 runs. They ignore that those types of big inning runs come in bunches and, thus disappear for long stretches. Me - I'd rather have 3-5 runs every day, allowing me a chance to find a way to win every time out.

So, after finally getting to see him in a White Sox uni, I'm as convinced as ever that there's no one I'd rather see leading off for the Sox next year than Pierre - any one else is either gonna be far worse for this team's success or unrealistic to actually attain. And I hope he does well enough that the Sox decide to give him another couple of years. I think Pierre takes care of himself well and will remain a productive lead off hitter for another 3-5 years. Given all the issues we've had at the leadoff spot, I'd love to see this guy locked into it for a while.


CF Rios

At one point Rios was hitting up over .300 with great power and looked like a perennial all-star worth every penny of the $12M+ per year he's owed. He came back to Earth in the second half, but in all Rios has proven to me that while he's a bit overpaid, it's not by much. The fact is that CFs who can play good defense (which he can), have good arms (which he does), can hit for power and flash speed (which his 21 HRs and 34 steals attest to), and will hit around .285 are well worth having around, especially during their prime (which he is, at 29).

Look at his carer numbers, his year-by-years, they both tell you the same thing - that this season's stat line is what you can hope for out of Rios pretty much every year. And I'm plenty happy with that. Ideally the Sox can find a hitter a bit more capable in the #3 slot and let Rios be a nice bit of speed back at the #5 or #6 slot.

However, the Sox can survive with him as a softer hitting #3 than you'd like both because they've got production further down in the lineup in the form of guys like Beckham and Alexei, and because having speed in the middle of the order creates a lot more ways to score.

In all, I think Rios is one of those guys you head into the year knowing what you're getting and he pretty much delivers. He may be a bit up and down as he does, but by October you'll have the same set of stats - .290 with 20 HRs, 85 R, 85 RBI and 25 steals... give or take. From my plus defensive CF? Yes please.

It was a risky move by Kenny taking on all that salary when Rios was strugglin for Toronto last season and it looked brutal when the kid came over and couldn't even hit .200 down the stretch. But the way Rios played this season and what we've seen from him in the past, I think this will go down as a solid move by our GM. Not amazing - Rios is making some pretty hefty dollars - but definitely something that will help this club win.


Tomorrow - RF and DH (here).

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part II (2B, 3B, & SS)

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Tuesday I kicked this series off, explaining that to guess at what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. Tuesday I started with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as I looked at C and 1B (here). I'll also get to LF and CF (here), before finishing with RF and the DH (here). From there, it's the SPs and then RPs to wrap us up.

Today, it's on to the 2B, 3B, and SS positions.


2B Beckham

Talk about a sophomore slump - after winning The Sporting News' Rookie of the Year, this guy was hitting .208 as late as July 10th. Offensively, I think few things were more responsible for the Sox horrendous early season than first, Ozzie making Beckham his #2 hitter, and the second, Beckham responding with such a sustained dreadful performance in the role.

I'll go to my grave in the belief that if Kotsay had been slotted into the #2 slot (spelled by Vizquel against lefties, until Vizquel took over the job on an everyday basis when he became the regular 3B), the whole start of the year would have been different. I think Kotsay would have responded well to being asked to make contact, be patient as JP tried to run, and occasionally lay down bunts or hit behind the runner.

The trickle down effect would have meant that Kotsay wasn't a giant zero in the middle of your lineup (a role he NEVER should have been asked to fill) and that Beckham wouldn't have had the pressure of producing from the top of the lineup. Even had Beckham started off just as slowly, doing so from the #9 slot would have made it much less harmful to the team, not to mention taking the focus off Beckham and giving him more room to work through it.

As it was, Beckham did eventually get moved out of the #2 slot and did eventually bounce back to the form we all expected after his fine rookie season. His second half line - .310 AVG, .380 OBA, .500 SLG. Um, yes please.

Every ballplayer goes through slumps, especially youngsters without a great deal of professional experience. But I think Beckham has learned, probably for the first time in his entire baseball career, that you can have a sustained slump and yet recover to reach the same levels of success you always have had.

What do I expect from Beckham next year? Sure, I'm always a bit optimistic, but something not too far off that second half line. Heck, let's be a bit conservative - I'm still seeing a .290, .365, .470 level of production, which would be outstanding for a 2B.

Especially a 2B who's shown himself to be very good defensively. Whether it was the right call to move him away from 3B, I'm not sure. But accepting he wasn't gonna play at the hot corner for the Sox longterm, then 2B looks like a great move. Beckham showed amazing range, a good turn, and just an overall strong feel out there. Now with a full season under his belt, with his offensive woes hopefully behind him, this kid might very well be looking at Gold Gloves in the future. Why not? It's as much about offensive production as defensive, and Beckham definitely has the skills to be as good at both as anyone in the AL.

In all, the Sox are looking as good at 2B as they have since Ray Durham, a extremely underrated Southsider, showed himself capable as a 24-year old in 1996. And there's no question Beckham provides the potential to be the kind of impact 2B that the Sox haven't had since Nellie Fox in 59 and 60. In all, expect him to deliver somewhere in between Durham's occasional all-star and Fox' Hall of Fame levels for years to come.


3B Vizquel/Teahen/Morel/Viciedo

In addition to recently exercising Castro's option, the Sox also quietly brought back the 44-year old Vizquel for another year. Sure, there's a bit of a Russian roulette thing with any player who's near or above 40, but can you argue with giving him a bit over $1M after the way he basically single-handedly saved their season?

There is no question in my mind that Vizquel solidifying both 3B defensively and the #2 slot in the lineup with above-average play in each was the single biggest one-person impact that swung this club from a disaster to a contender.

So yeah, it's possible that Vizquel has nothing left, that his .276 AVG and .341 OBA will plummet next season as Father Time finally catches up to him. But for the money they're giving Omar, he's well worth the risk, given that you gotta have faith he'll at least be a serviceable utility IF, pinch runner, and spot bunter. Not to mention a great clubhouse presence and invaluable resource for the budding IF superstars Beckham and Alexei, and even Viciedo and Morel.

Speaking of Viciedo and Morel, it'll be interesting to see if either of these kids gets a shot next year. As things stand now, there isn't a clear cut starting 3B, 1B, or DH, and all three spots could be, at least partially, held open for these kids.

So what could we expect? Well who ever knows with prospects. Viciedo is a beefy 21-year old who showed real power at both AAA and in the bigs, but also was able to hit .308 in 104 big league ABs and .276 in 343 in Charlotte. His problem is that he lacks plate discipline and most analysts would suggest his 25 to 2 K:BB ratio means Viciedo will eventually be exposed by regular at-bats at the big league level.

Maybe, but it's also possible he'll refine his approach as he matures and that his natural talents will carry him in the meantime. Especially given that Viciedo's making a decent chunk of change, I could see the Sox trying to find some way to get this kid ABs next year. Whether that will be at 3B, where there are questions about his defense, or 1B, somewhere he's not too used to, or in a mix along with some DH, is one of the more interesting storylines to follow up until Opening Day.

As for Morel, word is that he's a solid defensive 3B, even a really good one. He struggled to hit for much average in his 65 big league at-bats, but he did show some pop and his AAA numbers certainly pop out - .320 AVG, .503 SLG.

The fact that he can handle the leather at third certainly makes Morel a viable option next season, especially because he's so cheap as a 1st year guy. Given the way he has consistently hit minor league pitching (.305 in 1200 ABs over the past three seasons), I could get on board with an off-season plan that has Morel given first shot at 3B, with Vizquel or even Viciedo as the back-up plan.

The one thing I can't get behind and, thankfully it seems clear the White Sox agree, is any more Mark Teahen at 3B for more than a token game every few weeks. Kenny has way more good moves than bad on his resume, but signing Mark Teahen to a deal that pays him $4.75M and and $5.5M in the next two years when Teahen had never shown himself to be anything but a vet's minimum-level worthy utility guy is a real blunder.

Now, with the Sox wanting to contend and pushing hard up against their payroll ceiling thanks to mostly well-spent money on worthwhile assets, that $10M plus is the kind of cash the Sox could really use right now. Especially with the emergence of Viciedo and Morel as youngsters worth getting ABs for on the corners and a logjam of talent already in the corner OF.

The worst part about the move was that it was so obviously terrible at the time (as I detailed in repeated posts last Winter and Spring). Teahen had never shown anything outside of a fluke half years ago in KC. Just committing to him as your everyday 3B for a season was a bad enough decision, but to now be saddled with his very sizable salary for 2 more years when you had NO pressure to do so?!

Remember, Teahen was merely arbitration eligible and could have been signed for right around the same $3.75M they gave him last year, of which $1M+ was already paid for by the Royals. So why on Earth did Kenny, without seeing a single game in a Sox uni to convince him that Teahen was anything more than the clear mediocrity he'd been for years in KC, lock himself into such a hefty pay-out for this guy?

So what's that mean now? Well, you've got yourself a decent enough 1B-3B-LF-RF left-handed bench option for about $4M more than it should cost you each of the next two years. From a purely on-field perspective, Teahen could serve a decent bench role. Ignoring the finances, your baseball team is better with a flexible talent like Teahen to fill some gaps for short periods, providing Ozzie with a host of lineup and substitution options.

But Sox fans and the front office will still be counting the days until his salary comes off the books in two years.

The one upside possibility with Teahen - he could be thrown into a trade to secure an overpaid salary dump from another team. So let's say that the Angels want to get out from as much of Bobby Abreu's $9M salary in both 2011 and 12 as they can. The Sox see him as a nice left-handed DH/occasional OF option, but at closer to $5M per.

Bam, the Sox deal Teahen for Abreu straight up. The Angels get a decent role player and $5M in savings each of the next two seasons, while the Sox get a still productive left-handed bat with some speed and OBA for the $5M bump in team payroll they felt he was worth.

Now I have NO idea if the Angels want to get out from under Abreu or if the Sox have any interest in him these days. It's just one of many examples of the way Teahen could be used in a deal to net the Sox a needed piece that they otherwise wouldn't have spent to get. These type of deals happen all the time and when done right, can really help both sides. Especially in an era when so many teams are trying to cut payroll, the Sox could turn the mistake of signing Teahen into a valuable roster move.


SS Alexei

I don't think he finished out the year this way, but at one point around mid-season Alexei was the best fielding player in all of baseball. Looking at the various stats that the stat world views as a respected measurement of defense, Alexei not only was the best defensive SS, but the best defensive player relative to his position of anybody out there.

Seeing him play in the past, you both can believe that and find it surprising. I mean the kid has always had a cannon and good range, plus a nose for the great play. The potential was so obviously there for great things. However, Alexei never showed the head or commitment to play with any consistency and had actually devolved to a point where you felt he was a negative in the field.

I'm not sure what clicked this year, but I have to imagine two things came into play - a second year at short stop, his natural position, and the presence of arguably the greatest defensive SS of all time, Omar Vizquel, there to tutor him.

I think the emergence of both Beckham and Alexei as viable Gold Glove candidates had at least something to do with watching, talking with, and learning from Omar everyday for an entire season. For that reason I'm pumped that he'll be around again in 2011.

Especially because there are few things I think are as valuable to a team as great defense up the middle. This year, for the first time in a long time, the Sox had that, and they won because of it. Sure, their terrible start offensively and in the rotation followed up by the injury-plagued pen meltdown kept them from a playoff spot, but 88 wins is a respectable total and one based in large part on the great play of Alexei, Beckham, and Rios up the middle.

Offensively, I think we can count on two things from Alexei - a terrible April and then a pretty steady .285 and 20 HR level of production the rest of the way. It's been three years on the South Side for him now and all three years show the same exact splits - horrible April and around .280+ average in the rest of the months.

Out of a SS as good defensively as any in the game? I'll take it. Now that you know he can't hit in April, you can slot him in the #9 spot, give him a bunch of days off to keep him fresh for later, and then reap the rewards once May rolls around.

All I really want to see this kid get better at is running the bases. He's as flat out fast as anyone out there, but Alexei just doesn't have the right approach. Hopefully with Pierre now settled in, he can provide a bit of tutelage to Alexei on what it takes to become a good base-stealer. Even if Alexei can just develop an average approach, with his speed and Ozzie's aggressive approach, he could easy go from the 13 steals in 21 attempts-type runners he's been in each of his first three seasons to a 25 out of 33 level.

In all, you've got to be encouraged by the young, dynamic talent the Sox have on the infield and what it can mean to their success. 3B will be interesting to see unfold, but at least the Sox are looking at a number of different viable options, instead of hoping for some miracle (e.g. Teahen morphing into not being a bum).


Monday - LF and CF (here).

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2010 ChiSox Post Mortem - Part I (C & 1B)

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The Sox didn't demand our interest until mid-June, after the Hawks had finished up and they finally got all the right pieces in places, producing as they should. And they stopped deserving our interest around mid-August, when the Bears showed up and the Sox lost must-win series after must-win series without really much drama along the way.

So I don't think many Sox fans were too up to speed on what really happened in 2010. I think it kind of will end up as a bit of a forgotten year. And for about 3.5 months of the season (everything outside of early June to late July), that's not a bad thing. But, to understand what 2011 has to offer, including the already begun Hot Stove Season, we have to understand what we went through in 2010 and where it leaves us.

For the next week or so, I'll give you my position-by-position take on what happened and where I'd like to see us go before Opening Day 2011. Today, we'll start with a pair of big free agents, as big as any the Sox have faced in the Kenny-Ozzie era, as we look at C and 1B. I'll follow up with 2B, 3B, and SS (here), then go to LF and CF(here), before finishing with RF and the DH (here). From there, it's on to the SPs and then RPs.

C: AJ and Castro

AJ was definitely one of the culprits behind the slow start, both in his inability to hit anything (average entering June 9th, i.e. the night the Sox got hot: .219, with an OBA and SLG that were just as terrible) and for whatever blame he deserves in the failures of the starting rotation to show the consistency they should have.

The good news is in the second half, AJ was the AJ he's always been, hitting .299 to suggest the first few months were just a long slump and not a sign of significant decline due to his advancing age. More encouraging was that AJ, a notoriously bad RISP performer, hit .300 with runners to be driven in this season (despite the terrible first half).

It's not always clear how much credit or blame catcher's deserve, but the pitching staff also did settle down and put up post-May numbers more along what you'd expect, with the lion's share of pitching issues in the second half stemming from bullpen injuries. So the evidence seems to suggest that AJ handled the pitchers like he always has, especially once the team got out of its funk, and that for the near future, you should expect more of the same.

As for Castro, the back-up catcher role on a team with a guy like AJ only left 115 ABs (actually 130, given Castro missed the start of the year), but he definitely did the job with some nice pop and solid work behind the plate. The past two seasons Castro has had a slightly higher ERA behind the plate than AJ, but nothing so stark to think that he isn't doing a good job for a reserve catcher. In all, this guy is about as good as you'd hope out of this slot, especially this season, with his .278 average and impressive .504 SLG %.

In all, I'd say the Sox wouldn't be in a bad position if they were able to bring back Castro and AJ next season. AJ made $6.25M last year, but he definitely won't get that again. The Giants resigned Bengie Molina to a 1 year, $4.5M deal last off-season, and I'd imagine that's the ceiling AJ can hope for, given Molina is a renowned clubhouse asset while AJ is a personality a lot of teams won't touch (I'd say to their own detriment).

In news that not many followed, the Sox actually exercised Castro's $1.2M option (instead of a $200k buy-out), meaning their back-up slot is set for next year. I applaud that move, but hope the Sox don't have any delusions about Castro being a reasonable fall-back if they decide to let AJ go and test out Flowers.

Flowers just hasn't proven he's ready, hitting a paltry .220 in AAA this season (altho he did show good pop and a great ability to get on base). I'd much rather see Flowers given another Spring Training to learn a bit more about the big league pitchers and then a few more months of AAA work to get himself going in the right direction before he's brought up in a time-share before being handed the reigns in 2012.

So I'm definitely bringing back AJ for around that $4M, one-year deal that Molina got last year and if I'm AJ, I'm taking that. He's too old to get anything much longer, especially in this day and age of impressive Free Agent spending responsibility by MLB teams, and without any power, his reputation issues, and a middling defensive/pitcher handler reputation, AJ should be happy to get a fulltime starting gig for still very solid money with a franchise that he's done well with.

This type of one-year deal has two other advantages for the Sox - it keeps them from having to go out and find some other capable big league catcher to fill so many of AJ's innings and allows the Sox to gradually push AJ aside for Flowers (if they're still in contention) or even deal him for some token piece (if they're out of it). There's always a contending club that can use a World Series winning, left-handed catcher like AJ.

If the Sox do part ways with AJ, I'm going to be very curious what direction they go in. Catcher is never a deep position and rarely do teams feel they have an expendable big-league starter around. I guess I wouldn't be too heart-broken if they got a strong defensive catcher to share the duties with Castro until Flowers emerges, but only if it's at a significant cost saving over AJ. Otherwise, bring back AJ for a year, even two if necessary (again, the guy will remain tradeable) and focus your off-season efforts on more pressing needs.


1B Konerko

I think we'll see over the next few seasons that this was Konerko's final hurrah as a premier slugger, the one last rejuvenation season that a lot of good players stumble into along their slow but sure decline. The more cynical out there will credit this great year to his status as an impending free agent, but Sox fans know Paulie takes his personal failures WAY too hard to ever allow any room for a little something extra in the walk year.

The simple fact was that Paulie just had some good timing. After being a 40-110 guy from 04-06, Paulie had taken a step back to a still potent 30-90 level the past three seasons. Somehow he rediscovered his 40-110 stuff for this year and the Sox were in need of every bit of it.

However, for the next 3 years, I think you've got to be content if Paulie can consistently give you 30-90 production. 40-110 is not gonna happen and to be honest, 20-75 is probably more likely than a continuation of what he was this season. Remember, Paulie is a guy who's already had a couple of disastrous seasons to his credit right during his prime.

The question is whether one retarded GM can't come to the same obvious conclusions that your trusty Sox blogger just did. Cause all it takes is one idiot to talk himself into Paulie being a legit 40-110 guy and giving that kind of money for 3-5 years, despite his 35th birthday coming up next season.

But I'm just not seeing that. Not when Adam Dunn is gonna take one big spender off the market, Prince Fielder possibly on the block, and guys like DLee, Aubrey Huff, Lance Berkman, and Jim Thome out there competing for the same 1B/DH slots. I think Paulie fits somewhere between the $12.5M 1-year option that BoSox just exercised on Big Papi and the $4M and $6M 1-year deals that Huff and Adam LaRoche signed last off-season.

Again, unless someone is an idiot (always possible, I don't see Paulie over $10M per, certainly not for more than a year. I think he's got to expect down near maybe $8-9M. Every off-season at least one highly viable players comes off a good season, over-prices himself, and then is left to scramble for whatever he can get. It's possible that Paulie will be that guy and we see him sign a one year deal somewhere for $5-7M next February.

But if he's not an idiot, I think the Sox should be able to get him back for right around $8-9M, with the issue being whether the Sox would commit to three years or Paulie would accept two. If the Sox are too cheap to give him $8-9M or too misguided to give him two years, they're making a big mistake. Paulie will remain productive enough and is a good fit for this franchise and clubhouse. Replacing him with someone else - a must if you want to compete next season - will not be easy in either free agency or the trade market, nor do they have any obvious in-house options.

The simple fact is that the Sox can't afford to lose another legit, proven slugger. I don't subscribe to the idea that they need to reverse course and go back to a softball lineup with some aging boomer at DH again, but if you aren't gonna go that route, you sure can't then also jettison your slugging 1B for some mediocre free agent or unproven prospect.

On the other side of things, I'm gonna be upset with Paulie if the Sox make a legit $8M+ offer for two years or more and he doesn't bite. Sure, he can frame it as wanting to be closer to his family, but that's a fair market offer from a team that's committed to you through thick and thin - it'd be a real slap in the face if Paulie walks away from that, given that this is a team capable of great things in the next year or two.

As for the options if the Sox don't re-sign Paulie? I really have no idea. All the rumors are that the Sox were hot for Adam Dunn at the deadline, but does that interest continue given the big money he's expected to demand? Ditto with Prince Fielder - the Sox supposedly kicked the tires there, but do they actually have the juice to pry away such a young star from the Brewers?

The Sox do have an extra young frontline starting pitching arm to dangle, but would the Sox give up three more affordable Floyd years or two more affordable Danks ones? And would Milwaukee really do it for just one year of Ed Jackson?

Of course, there are other possibilities out there and don't discount Kenny doing something no one saw coming. In fact, that's probably the one thing you can count on - Kenny will pull off some deal this off-season that nets him somebody that hadn't been rumored. Maybe that's the direction Kenny will go at 1B, tho I can't even begin to guess at a worthy #3 or #4 hitting replacement who's actually available.

But hey, that's half the fun of a GM like Kenny, so keep an eye out.

Tomorrow - 2B, 3B, and SS (here).

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